In AMK's post concerning a minimum of 4 repeats showing in a string of 37 spins, Mr J. said the following:
"What I like about this......its something that WILL happen.
As I prefer to call it >>"EVENT BETTING"
That single line has stuck with me and it made a nice fit with the foundation of Warrior's recent post that got so much attention.
Here are some things that have been declared as certain to happen in the future:
- Within 37 spins, 4 repeats will occur, meaning that one dozen will have a minimum of 2 repeats during the same string
- At least 4 of the DS will have at least 2 unique numbers appear in them in the course of 37 spins
There are more, but I simply don't know them. The reason why I bring this up is because the small majority of people in this forum appear to dismiss Gambler's Fallacy, although some obviously embrace it. For those who dismiss it as "We don't know what is due based on what has spun in the past", these two items are examples of what is due just based on we know they are due. Playing the two points I mentioned just at face value can require some substantial bankroll.
My question to the forum is - What other absolute certainties are you aware of that we know will occur in a certain amount of time?
Will we get a chop within 20 spins?
Will we get at least one split that will hit 4 times in 37 spins?
What is the highest number that we absolutely know at least one street will hit in 24 spins (or 37 or 55)?
How many times minimum will neighbors hit?
There are, I'm certain, people who know what is certain to occur. I was hoping that we could expand this thread with that knowledge to expand one another's knowledge.
QuoteMy question to the forum is - What other absolute certainties are you aware of that we know will occur in a certain amount of time?
This is exactly what Marigny does with even money bets.
Lets say you see singles and series of two appear within a window of 30 trails/events.
Then you know that you will get larger series to appear for the next 50/100/150 trails/events.
You don't know when they will happen, but you know they will happen.
Same as you describe above.
So you don't play to catch one of does events, because then you would chasing for a event to happen like any other betselection.
When you get one event to show, then the event is present and you can attack, this is what we call tendency play.
Thanks for the reply, although that doesn't fit what I'm asking. I agree that severe deviations from the mean well eventually return to balance. However, we don't know how long it will take to do so. I'm specifically looking for quantifiable bets that must occur by a certain spin number. Even more specifically, something that will happen at least a number of times by a certain spin. I like high numbers that we can wait until right before, a turn-on/turn-off situation. If at least one DS will always have at least 9 hits in 37, we can wait until one gets 8 before we start. By that time, many of the 37 will already be on the marquis without us losing chasing the chances. Also, it minimizes how many potential candidates we have and preserves bankroll by narrowing the spaces we must cover to get our hits.
We know a dormant EC will eventually get ahead of the other. I'd like to see some stats based on real spins about this.
Speaking of DS, last time I went to the B&M I registered the following spins:
12 22 1 27 0 12 33 18 20 13 29 30 21 21 13 13 12 20 12 19 23 9 33 19 9 0 25 0 0 23 26 9 14 14 20 30 5 36 20 29 9
DS1 took 34 spins to close.
Colbster
Before I study this further, would you link or name the thread by AMK?
Sam
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=13544.0;nowap (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=13544.0;nowap)
For instance, a minimum of 3 hits will occur on at least one split in 37 spins. Wait until one gets a repeat, then bet that split. As more splits repeat, add them to the bet until one hits. Use a number of units to cover all bets and return at least +1 on a hit. After the win, backtrack just far enough in tracking to remove the first appearance of the split. Rebet all splits that have repeats since that time and continue. This allows for constant betting after your first period of tracking. There are so many ways of determining what "must" happen and then applying a betting mechanism. Some are just more manageable from a bankroll/progression standpoint than others.
And I'm not suggesting that as a method, I'm just pointing out how must-shows can be structured. I'm looking for the things that must happen "no later than....". Any time you put eventually in your reply, that is not the information I am looking for in this thread.
Just as easily, there will be at least 6 hits in at least 1 DS in 37 spins. Wait until you have 5 hits, bet any and all DSs with 5 until the 6th hit. A million different approaches that can be used when we have a minimum number of X in Y spins.
Colbster, One of the systems that goes into something along these lines is Roulette 2000 and can be found on page 1586 or around there in the systems posted under Main Roulette Board by Iggiv. It's not exactly what you're asking for, but close. You might find it interesting if you haven't already read it.
GLC
Quote from: Colbster on Nov 30, 08:24 PM 2014
Any time you put eventually in your reply, that is not the information I am looking for in this thread.
I see it now. Sorry.
You know, everytime I went to the B&MC I used to record the outcomes and I recall two-time repeaters always showing up in 37 spins at least once. Again, nothing absolute to give you, but the longest gap between 2-time repeaters should not be much more than 37. If someone provides the data, a method could be devised instantly. I'm sure it has been tried. Sorry if this is still off-topic.
Attached is Roulette 2000 suggested by GLC for those who do not have it and dont want to wade through Iggiv's post.
This is interesting...........
But going back to Mr. J... Exactly what are you seeing? The beginning, the middle or the end?
I would think a person would need a "qualifying time" to determine where you are in the scheme of things. For example: I see a split hit for the second time. Is that the third time for someone else? Can his third time be my second time? Or is that split dead?
If you knew whatever you see is yours, this is very interesting. Wouldn't we all love to see a roulette wheel "forced" into doing something?
TwoCat
Quote from: nowun on Dec 01, 07:39 AM 2014
Attached is Roulette 2000 suggested by GLC for those who do not have it and don't want to wade through Iggiv's post.
Thanks Nowun. That's an interesting read for anyone not that familiar with roulette. It's the idea that got me started on roulette in the first place. The best way to play it is with a bot, I think. Otherwise you go crazy tracking. Of course if you pick a large variety of spots to look for a trigger, you might get enough bets to make it interesting.
The problem is this whole concept of "gambler's fallacy". We know that no matter how many times Red has hit in a row, the next spin is still a 50/50 proposition on a non-zero wheel.
GLC
wow just browsed that pdf
he had an 8 spins target on one dozen and if no hit then 8 spins more on a double street in that dozen
talk about a potential high hit rate
i need to study this
Quote from: GLC on Dec 01, 06:38 PM 2014
The problem is this whole concept of "gambler's fallacy". We know that no matter how many times Red has hit in a row, the next spin is still a 50/50 proposition on a non-zero wheel.
That's the whole point of my thread. We know that past spins don't influence future events. However, in those instances where future events are already laid out for us in terms of "at least", we have a place to start. Statistics are telling us what is going to happen, we just need to identify those certainties that can be captured without running afoul of the table limits or a reasonable time and bankroll. I'm not explaining this properly, I guess, as nothing is forthcoming. Thanks to everyone who has tried to add to the discussion.
Quote from: Colbster on Dec 01, 07:49 PM 2014
That's the whole point of my thread. We know that past spins don't influence future events. However, in those instances where future events are already laid out for us in terms of "at least", we have a place to start. Statistics are telling us what is going to happen, we just need to identify those certainties that can be captured without running afoul of the table limits or a reasonable time and bankroll. I'm not explaining this properly, I guess, as nothing is forthcoming. Thanks to everyone who has tried to add to the discussion.
Colbster, I think you're asking an unanswerable question. There are no absolutes in roulette. If there are, they're such that no bet method can capitalize on them. I've heard of 24 or so even chances in a row but you still can't say that it's 100% sure you can't get 25.
GLC
Infalliable roulette system - wait for 20 EC run, bet against it with 100 dollar units, martingale. Youll always win, however the trigger could take days
I think there can be absolutes. Afterall it's about a finite number of slots, and a fixed set of rules.
Edit - Addendum:
But, even if we do all the number crunching right, the payouts are still unfair. The House Edge and all that. It will get you.
We're all walking around in circles here. In the end it's about Luck.
Another certainty is that Table Limits are there to protect the House. The only way to beat them is Team Work.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 01, 09:28 PM 2014
Infalliable roulette system - wait for 20 EC run, bet against it with 100 dollar units, martingale. Youll always win, however the trigger could take days
Just wait for 18 numbers to show (usually 24 spins) and bet the other 19
Happens all the time
Hello again Colbster!
In a 5 million spin test it was shown that less then 7 repeats only happens 10 times. Less then 4 was not seen. 5 once, 6 nine times.
135,150 sessions of 37 spin cycles......
The 4 repeat minimum in 37 spins was for 30 million spins.
In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.
Turner wait for 18 unique numbers then bet the remaining with martingale?
AMK, are there any stats for the largest gap between two straight numbers that show up three times?
Like:
12xxxxxxxx12xxxxx12xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx25xxxxxxxxxx25xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx25
how many spins
<----from here-------------------------------------------to here?--->
Quote from: amk on Dec 02, 08:48 PM 2014
In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.
That changes the dynamic quite a bit! With 7 (as compared to 4), one dozen will show at least 3 repeats instead of just 2. If we extrapolate on my original method which we discussed in your post, we could drastically delay the betting, reducing the necessary bankroll and max bet. Instead of waiting for a repeat and then betting all numbers which have shown in that dozen, we would now wait until there have been 2 repeats in a dozen before beginning to bet all numbers that have shown in that dozen. This would increase the number of spaces in the dozen(s) that we would cover, but it would be for a shorter time.
To Colbster and AMK since you guys are the OPs, don't you think that implying that one dozen will have at least two repeaters (out of four in a 37-spin cycle), picking one at random and guessing there will be 7 repeaters in a live situation, kind of defeat the point of the thread? The underlined words are yours, in both threads. Either we talk of guessings (to pick one) or absolutes, otherwise the thread will gear towards Gambler's Fallacies, not Certainties.
Don't take me for naysayer, please. I think we could be onto something here. It's good to have something we can rely upon, for a change.
Hello Psimoes,
Not every 37 spin cycle will see a number hit 3 times. It can take up to 52 spins before 1 number is hit 3 times. Once one number is hit 3 times I would think that it would take less then 52 spins before the second number is hit 3 times due to there being a lot of numbers hit twice by this point.
Hello Colbster!
Psimoes does make an interesting point. It is possible that we do not see 7 repeats in a live casino. If my math is correct there is a 0.007% chance of this happening. I can work with those odds.
Instead of dozens I was thinking of playing Lines (DS) with the 7 repeats. One Line "will" have 2 repeats in it after 37 spins.
These are stats I found on the appearance of 6 unique lines in 6 spins.
1 4492
2 7319
3 7425
4 4884
5 2024
6 399
So 399 times out of 26,543 sessions 6 unique lines landed in a row. 4492 times there was a repeat on the second spin and the session ended. We can correlate this Line stat to the appearance of the first 6 repeats in 37 spins and the Lines they land in. So it will happen that the first 6 repeats all land one by one in unique lines but there is a 1.5% chance of this happening.
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 01, 11:39 PM 2014
I think there can be absolutes. Afterall it's about a finite number of slots, and a fixed set of rules.
Edit - Addendum:
But, even if we do all the number crunching right, the payouts are still unfair. The House Edge and all that. It will get you.
We're all walking around in circles here. In the end it's about Luck.
Ralph said that. I'm still sad about that old guy.
Sam
Quote from: amk on Dec 03, 10:11 AM 2014
Hello Psimoes,
Not every 37 spin cycle will see a number hit 3 times. It can take up to 52 spins before 1 number is hit 3 times. Once one number is hit 3 times I would think that it would take less then 52 spins before the second number is hit 3 times due to there being a lot of numbers hit twice by this point.
[...]
Thanks AMK. Much appreciated.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Dec 03, 10:34 AM 2014
Ralph said that. I'm still sad about that old guy.
Sam
The one with the funny moustache?I remember from reading older posts. What happened? Did he bust?
Edit - Sorry I just read Ralph passed away. May he rest in peace.
psi
I never knew if that pic was of him or some character in history. I asked him once and he never replied.
Sam
Sam, I meant "the one with the avatar with the funny moustache", but then there would be two "with" words in the same question, so I shortened the phrase to "the avatar with...", then it might suggest we're not real people here, so I rewrote it to "the one with...". I spend too much effort to make myself clear in English, and then it goes wrong.
Ralph's avatar seems from the Handlebar Moustache Club.
I'm "with" ya!! ;D
Lol OK Sam
Now, here's what I've been thinking about:
ATTENTION: THE FOLLOWING HAS NOT BEEN TESTED. IT'S FOR APPRECIATION ONLY! DON'T SPEND REAL MONEY ON THIS THING!
We begin tracking numbers and if as soon as a number shows up three times within 37 spins, we restart tracking (commencing on the next number after the repeater).
Then, as soon as one number (whatever number, doesn't have to be the same that showed up before) repeats, we begin flat betting on that number alone for it to show up a third time.
With luck we won't need a progression. In the worst case, it will show up 54 spins after we started retracking, In which case we would need a bankroll of 74 units.
1) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 35 Bankroll Needed: $1
2) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 34 Bankroll Needed: $2
3) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 33 Bankroll Needed: $3
4) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 32 Bankroll Needed: $4
5) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 31 Bankroll Needed: $5
6) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 30 Bankroll Needed: $6
7) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $7
8) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 28 Bankroll Needed: $8
9) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $9
10) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 26 Bankroll Needed: $10
11) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $11
12) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 24 Bankroll Needed: $12
13) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $13
14) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 22 Bankroll Needed: $14
15) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 21 Bankroll Needed: $15
16) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 20 Bankroll Needed: $16
17) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $17
18) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 18 Bankroll Needed: $18
19) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $19
20) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 16 Bankroll Needed: $20
21) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 15 Bankroll Needed: $21
22) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 14 Bankroll Needed: $22
23) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $23
24) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $24
25) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $25
26) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 10 Bankroll Needed: $26
27) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 9 Bankroll Needed: $27
28) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 8 Bankroll Needed: $28
29) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $29
30) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 6 Bankroll Needed: $30
31) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $31
32) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $32
33) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $33
34) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 2 Bankroll Needed: $34
35) Bet: $ 1 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 1 Bankroll Needed: $35
36) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 35 Bankroll Needed: $37
37) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 33 Bankroll Needed: $39
38) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 31 Bankroll Needed: $41
39) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $43
40) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $45
41) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $47
42) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $49
43) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 21 Bankroll Needed: $51
44) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $53
45) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $55
46) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 15 Bankroll Needed: $57
47) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $59
48) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $61
49) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 9 Bankroll Needed: $63
50) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $65
51) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $67
52) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $69
53) Bet: $ 2 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 1 Bankroll Needed: $71
54) Bet: $ 3 on 1 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 34 Bankroll Needed: $74
Screenshot is self-explaining.
Suppose we start tracking on nr. 36. 23 spins later finally 27 shows up for a third time. We commence retracking on the next number which is 35, and we see nr. 5 is the first to repeat, so we start flat betting on that number until it repeats again. Six spins later, WIN! We spent 6 units and won 30. We feel lucky, and will stay for a second round. We already have our 3-show-upper so we begin tracking on the next number, 29. Incidently 29 is the first number to repeat in the new cycle, so we start betting on it. 20 spins later, WIN! We spent 20 units and profitted 16. Weǘe been at the table for three hours, but earned 36 units. Tough job, but that's life.
Now, you might ask where's the certainty here? All we see is just another system based on GF, right? Who's to say that after we have our repeater, that very number won't show up again much later and we aren't wasting our bankroll on another sleeper?
Well, based on what I've learned about trends, it's possible that a number starts its hybernation cycle gradually. We had a trend of repetitions in the last 37-cycle. We will follow that trend, assuming for now that if there's a sleeper in the next spins, it's showing up so rarely that we woudn't select it for our bet anyway, there would be some other number that repeated before that one. This should be tested. With any system everything is based on Gambler's Fallacy until proven contrary.
Quote from: psimoes on Dec 03, 01:02 AM 2014
Don't you think that implying that one dozen will have at least two repeaters (out of four in a 37-spin cycle), picking one at random and guessing there will be 7 repeaters in a live situation, kind of defeat the point of the thread? The underlined words are yours, in both threads. Either we talk of guessings (to pick one) or absolutes, otherwise the thread will gear towards Gambler's Fallacies, not Certainties.
The way I approached the problem in AMK's post was to wait until a dozen had the first repeat and then chase after the second. If there are 4 repeats spread among 3 dozens, 1 HAS to have at least 2. I played for the second repeat only. If we had 5 1-show numbers in a dozen and then a repeat in that dozen, I would begin betting all 5 in that dozen. The second repeat on any of the 5 (plus any that appear after beginning betting) in that dozen would close the bet and start the next set. Sometimes we only bet on one dozen, sometimes 2, sometimes all 3. They got activated as soon as they had their first repeat. Based on the statistics, that was an absolute certainty to occur. There was no guessing involved - it was never even a discussion in my manner of playing based on AMK's observation.
The 7 repeats in live is troublesome because I don't know if it has been verified in any meaningful way. If it was, the same math applies to playing beginning the second repeat and only chasing the third. The main trouble with the method playing for 4 repeats was bankroll. If you got repeats in all 3 dozens early, it got a little steep. Using 7 instead of four, there will be less qualified dozens to bet on and a shorter time frame to worry about the costs.
Quote from: Colbster on Dec 03, 03:47 PM 2014
The main trouble with the method playing for 4 repeats was bankroll. If you got repeats in all 3 dozens early, it got a little steep.
I don't doubt about the 4 repeats minimum. The above conclusion was my reasoning. Hence why I've been concerned about table limits recently.
So far, my "system" is doing OK. On Celtic Casino, betting on 0 took 12 spins. On my toy roulette, the numbers I was betting on showed up early too, until the final round. Last winner took 45 spins, and in the meantime other numbers showed up for two, three and for times.
Which leads me to think that my "system" has a little flaw that can be easily fixed: so far we've been going for a second round immediately after a win on a number that showed-up for three times. Why start counting for another two-time repeater when we just got one, right? Wrong, I'd say. If we continue we are relying on clustering.
It's really advisable to go back a few spins, pick up any other number that showed for two times, not our previous winner, wait until it hits a third time, and only after that we begin our tracking for the next repeater. When this one hits twice, we then bet for it to hit a third time.
Another thing, probably betting on neighbours would save us a lot of time, but this is just another opinion, not backed.up by any statistics, so far. Not mentioning the betting on three numbers.
One major flaw in my "system", why aren't we surprised, is in choosing the first number that repeats after we started re-tracking, for selecting our bet. This is downright GFBS.
Tisch: T7
Datum: 2014-12-03
********* Gewinnzahlen ********
N Z R
4 Suppose we had just started to track for a 2-time repeater, from exactly here...
35
2
16
4
-- -- --
31
12
20
35
4 Well, what do you know? Here is one. That was fast. Now let's re-track for a first repeat...
17
8
8 Woohoo here it is. I'll be home in time for supper. Let's start betting...
36
36 Hmmm... another repeater...
32
20
11
27
27 What? Another one!
29
29 What the...?
12
9
-- -- --
27 Dang! Doesn't matter, stay on target...
7
19
15
24
23
11
36 Uh-oh...
17
27 Argh! Where's that damned 8?
12
17
16
33
-- -- --
12
17
9
9 I wanna file a complain...
29
34
5
11
30
0
21
21
36
36 Yes, Sir you heard me...
24
14
1
12
1
-- -- --
25
0 So, what's new on telly?
14
34
15
9
28
25
16
31
2
34
18
29
34
21
36
30
7
13
8 What? Who, me? Those are my winnings?
The irony of this situation is that stats are still right: Numbers appearing three times and no signs of that longest gap of 54...
Solution so far: betting on every repeating number until one repeats again... it would have been an easy session... but I really wanted to avoid that...
You could bbt 1 unit on every number as it comes betting on a repeat
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 03, 09:22 PM 2014
You could bbt 1 unit on every number as it comes betting on a repeat
I tried that. Too risky, requires bankroll and when the spins from hell arrive they'll take away the previous winnings.
Betting after the first repeat is much safer.
Quote from: amk on Dec 02, 08:48 PM 2014
Hello again Colbster!
In a 5 million spin test it was shown that less then 7 repeats only happens 10 times. Less then 4 was not seen. 5 once, 6 nine times.
135,150 sessions of 37 spin cycles......
The 4 repeat minimum in 37 spins was for 30 million spins.
In a live casino, I am guessing we will never see less then 7 repeats.
I confirm this numbers. In several millions of random number sets I tried, 5 was minimum and only saw it once. Its an extremly rare rare event.