Anyone have stats on the average number of spins until the first repeat number?
On average, how many trials would you need in 38-number roulette before any number is repeated?
Counting the first trial, I show the mean is 8.408797, the median is 8, and the mode is 7.
The probability of two numbers without a repeat is 37/38 = 97.37%.
The probability of three numbers without a repeat is (37/38)×(36/38) = 92.24%.
The probability of four numbers without a repeat is (37/38)×(36/38)×(35/38) = 84.96%.
Following this pattern, the probability of no repeats in 8 numbers is (37/38)×(36/38)×(35/38)×...×(31/38) = 45.35%.
So the probability of a repeat within 8 numbers is 100% - 45.35% = 54.65%.
I suspect most people would estimate that that probability of a repeat within 8 numbers would be less than that. If you’re not above taking advantage of your math-challenged friends, propose a bet that it will take 8 or fewer numbers for at least one to repeat. So you would be betting on 8 or fewer, and your friend 9 or more. If he/she balks, then offer to take 7 or over, which would have a 55.59% chance of winning. Basically, whichever side covers the median of 8 is likely to win.
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link:://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/roulette/
Thank you TurboGenius!
I was hoping I could bet 8 numbers and cover all numbers until a repeat using some progression.
You can try - but for the record I have seen 20+ spins without a repeat and that would kill a progression.
The outliers would definately kill me. I have to hit the sweet spot and hope the wins overcome the losses.
by "sweet spot" you mean you would have to pick what numbers to play based on something more than "luck" I hope :)
Then you might just have something worth digging into. :thumbsup:
I mean like if 8-15 spins captures 75% of the repeats. Then I would play that range.
This guy plays something similar on the last 8-9 numbers.
But he plays not the first to repeat, he tracks a bunch of numbers before the betting starts. Maybe it is some advanced selection.
link:s://youtu.be/dvqiSXZ4BCg
Cheers Rolletti
I have been studying this way of playing for some time. I have a set of 37 spins where there were 26 unique before the first repeater. Rare yes, but something to bear in mind!
BA
Another thing I need to check out is the repeat rate on the coldest 8 numbers.