In this topic, I'm going to be looking at the evidence for dealer's signature.
Not just any old conjecture though. Real live spins on my own casino quality wheel.
Sample spin:
From zero area, 4 sec rotor, fall off 24, winning number 17. Bounce and scatter approx 24 pockets.
The ball will be spun from around the zero area, 8-10 clockwise revolutions round the wheel, with an anticlockwise rotor of 4 secs per rev, 9.25 pockets per sec. The wheel is slightly tilted to produce a 2 pin game, 2 diamond dominant dropzone.
This is a very high scatter modern wheel, and very difficult to beat. Nevertheless the data will be examined to see if any trends exist. Visual ballistics were undertaken to predict 6 or 7 spins out and confirmed a drop off diamond prediction in the 10 to 24 to 33 zone 80% of the time.
12/03/2019. Cammegh High Scatter Low Profile Scallop. 4 Sec/Rev Rotor acw. Cw B Release At 0. 18mm Heavy Teflon. 8 to 10 Ball Revolutions. 11 to 14 second spin. Slightly tilted wheel. 2 Pin game. 2 dominant diamond dropzone. Raw Data. 200 spins.
CSV Data 200 spins. 10 x lines of 20. 5 columns of 37 plus 15 spins.
31,27,11,0,17,18,10,36,26,10,2,17,25,23,1,23,1,36,1,3,
30,9,9,6,14,30,19,16,22,27,9,6,30,4,15,25,22,8,34,27,
7,30,35,3,26,35,32,32,27,19,12,19,1,3,21,8,9,5,19,15,
24,26,16,20,0,34,17,4,9,34,0,17,0,15,14,19,24,16,34,26,
19,11,9,12,23,2,25,18,3,0,30,31,4,32,36,7,12,11,33,17,
23,2,13,15,36,25,23,18,24,31,19,28,20,23,8,26,27,22,8,21,
21,6,23,16,12,34,8,24,32,34,16,0,0,5,23,20,9,34,21,7,
22,29,24,36,35,19,0,6,32,30,26,4,6,33,31,15,12,24,35,15,
21,8,1,21,6,2,36,9,9,12,3,25,11,30,15,35,23,12,32,35,
24,0,30,30,4,11,12,11,15,16,32,15,11,17,20,29,1,29,29,24
The graph of this data is attached.
The graph starts at 10, the beginning of the falloff number zone.
Although this appears relatively even, it will be noted that 75 of the 200 results occur in the first 18 pockets after the drop off while 125 of the 200 results occur in the second half of the wheel. There is a concentration of results in the 19 to 24 pockets area after the drop off.
The expected value of hits on a number would be 200/37 = 5.4
Is the just a freak result or is it a trend? More 200 spin sets to follow!
More data.
13/03/2019. Cammegh High Scatter Low Profile Scallop. 4 Sec/Rev Rotor acw. Cw B Release At 0. 18mm Heavy Teflon. 8 to 10 Ball Revolutions.11 to 14 second spin. Slightly tilted wheel. 2 Pin game. 2 dominant diamond dropzone. Raw Data.200 spins.
CSV Data 200 spins. 10 x lines of 20.
4,1,2,10,18,14,22,28,33,29,22,17,25,17,12,23,15,13,15,26,
21,12,5,25,17,20,7,34,32,0,11,32,5,16,9,7,22,21,4,19,
5,16,26,36,4,35,12,33,20,34,23,33,25,1,15,31,34,35,35,20,
4,17,3,3,2,24,15,3,6,10,10,28,14,36,18,3,10,0,23,22,
16,31,21,18,2,22,17,32,2,14,34,10,3,10,4,23,33,4,29,20,
1,24,17,1,10,36,25,13,9,4,30,35,7,10,2,29,13,32,29,14,
5,11,5,16,34,3,25,22,30,2,26,36,17,5,19,18,9,25,32,2,
31,35,16,18,31,6,31,36,24,2,23,35,0,25,11,29,26,30,9,21,
28,13,8,17,6,36,6,19,25,20,18,25,21,20,21,34,28,15,25,17,
5,19,1,7,26,19,19,29,4,21,34,35,31,36,34,5,34,22,21,19
Here more even in the first half following 10, but again a clump in the 15 to 34 sector following zero. Drop off around 8 to 33.
Too early to say anything for definite, but looks like 20-27 pockets after DD zone could be a scatter peak.
Tonight's data.
Up to 600 spins now. When we get to 1000, I will amalgamate the data in one graph and do some brief statistical analysis.
NB These are all actual unchanged spin data based on a live random wheel in good condition so feel free to use for your own testing. In many cases you can just copy and paste and import the CSV data directly into another platform.
14/03/2019. Cammegh High Scatter Low Profile Scallop. 4 Sec/Rev Rotor acw. Cw B Release At 0. 18mm Heavy Teflon. 8 to 10 Ball Revolutions.11 to 14 second spin. Slightly tilted wheel. 2 Pin game. 2 dominant diamond dropzone. Raw Data.200 spins.
CSV Data 200 spins. 10 x lines of 20.
27,19,8,29,12,17,0,26,18,23,17,5,14,13,9,15,35,12,7,33,
31,29,11,0,9,3,12,23,25,9,24,14,0,1,14,19,19,31,27,17,
19,15,19,22,21,3,2,11,27,14,30,35,23,13,32,26,23,1,13,4,
19,10,35,6,23,32,6,24,5,34,13,22,0,2,19,7,23,12,9,10,
34,13,0,25,25,29,4,35,35,29,7,34,11,34,2,36,21,25,6,9,
13,26,29,13,20,0,28,11,10,4,29,1,30,0,13,0,4,25,29,30,
6,15,21,13,35,31,16,24,29,26,28,30,31,32,29,11,25,5,35,5,
21,9,15,35,18,25,12,2,25,11,12,19,8,4,2,6,6,26,16,32,
22,11,18,21,32,13,4,18,15,15,36,36,9,9,33,13,15,4,25,27
15,4,15,21,10,24,3,4,3,7,6,27,16,4,31,26,15,11,5,23
Again the fall of diamond was predicted by VB and verified to be in the 8 to 33 zone about 80% of the time.
The data was 78 results in the first half and 122 in the second half with a possible scatter peak in the 0 to 4 area
With this type of test it's very important to limit the degrees of freedom. Simply plotting the numbers that come out when releasing the ball from zero will work, but it will take a ton of data to find significance.
So here are some suggestions.
1. Let's look at the correlation values between spin samples. I'll post the correlation values.
2. Since it's virtually impossible to spin the same distance for hundreds of spins in a row, what you really want to look at is the change in yardage from one spin to the next. That's called the one frequency. I've pasted the one frequency on this page for you to view. The distance thrown will change throughout your spin period, but the one frequency, two frequency, three frequency, etc... is what you want to measure.
3. The wheel could be biased. You should consider alternating the release numbers at random rather than always using the one.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/sourcecb46b.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URVxH)
Above is the distance in pockets for all trials when releasing the ball from the number zero area. The graph is a standard deviation graph.
The chi is 32.9 or a chance of randomness of 1 in 1.62. Since the best area wasn't picked in advance of the test the true standard deviation result isn't really quite as high as it appears on this graph.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/sourceb318e.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URXId)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/source5dc76.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URDct)
(Above)Here's the one frequency. With this chart we've limited the degrees of freedom down to just one area. The section around 0 yardage.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/sourcea0c48.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URpFf)
(Above)Here's a section graph of the one frequency. Again, a measure of the consistency of throws from one spin to the next.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/sourcecc369.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URd0g)
(Above)Here's a section graph of the two frequency. With this chart we've limited the degrees of freedom down to just one area as well. This is comparing the consistency of the yardage of a spin to the consistency of yardage two spins later.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/13/sourced26c3.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/URBf5)
Here's a section graph of the one and two frequencies combined. Again, it's a measure of consistency comparing the yardage on spin one to the yardage on spin two and the yardage on spin three.
I'll probably sum all the data for 1000 spins and then do curve smoothing, moving averages or some other technique and look at the standard deviations then. I'm not going to guess what the result might be to keep everything as fair as possible. I think 1000 spins should be a fair sample, but we'll see!
More data today.
15/03/2019. Cammegh High Scatter Low Profile Scallop. 4 Sec/Rev Rotor acw. Cw B Release At 0. 18mm
Heavy Teflon. 8 to 10 Ball Revolutions.11 to 14 second spin. Slightly tilted wheel. 2 Pin game. 2
dominant diamond dropzone. Raw Data. 200 spins.
CSV Data 200 spins. 10 x lines of 20.
22,21,11,8,13,22,8,26,21,11,20,4,21,9,4,2,29,31,12,26,
28,23,27,18,15,7,4,4,34,2,16,36,6,29,29,2,28,27,9,22,
17,4,8,21,30,18,36,36,32,15,20,31,21,31,9,34,0,26,24,4,
21,26,28,24,30,31,0,30,29,16,9,1,0,34,17,23,7,25,11,15,
18,17,36,2,29,7,8,26,8,17,18,30,11,23,35,5,27,2,25,14,
8,25,19,13,2,3,27,24,0,33,3,35,34,32,27,32,1,32,3,35,
10,29,36,29,3,20,15,20,20,23,12,1,1,12,9,33,18,35,12,25,
24,11,28,19,15,35,16,26,7,1,28,2,19,7,12,9,3,0,14,25,
33,15,19,29,28,27,34,12,30,12,18,3,3,27,15,26,7,1,0,22
30,30,28,5,3,20,19,32,8,29,21,19,18,9,21,9,8,21,8,2
Look at the graph today. Can you see any trends?
The last data set making 1000 spins this week.
That's 27 columns of 37 and 1 for luck. Thus in the total data set, the expected value of each number is 1000/37 = 27.03
16/03/2019. Cammegh High Scatter Low Profile Scallop. 4 Sec/Rev Rotor acw. Cw B Release At 0. 18mm Heavy Teflon. 8 to 10 Ball Revolutions.11 to 14 second spin. Slightly tilted wheel. 2 Pin game. 2 dominant diamond dropzone. Raw Data. 200 spins.
CSV Data 200 spins. 10 x lines of 20.
20,19,30,17,35,29,19,9,34,19,15,29,7,6,12,4,10,17,21,25,
26,31,13,33,35,31,30,32,25,30,7,23,24,21,4,30,36,17,20,23,
34,12,3,27,34,21,32,33,31,30,12,32,25,6,7,34,11,29,18,28,
4,26,25,5,15,22,18,16,9,4,14,27,28,29,31,22,30,29,7,6,
28,35,0,26,0,28,4,19,26,31,4,1,24,35,1,3,36,15,34,4,
32,20,27,27,34,2,22,16,21,32,2,2,26,20,19,28,18,7,19,12,
19,29,27,13,22,13,0,31,16,3,34,12,24,7,28,18,16,15,2,22,
26,24,21,15,33,4,12,9,19,1,17,9,15,7,15,17,1,2,0,32,
4,17,3,10,19,29,23,15,12,12,21,3,4,2,34,19,13,31,18,35
14,23,3,18,9,13,19,18,3,1,27,6,9,33,24,32,35,25,14,4
2 clear winners this set of 200, see graph.
Attached is graph amalgamated for all 1000 spins.
The mean is 1000/37 = 27.03
The standard deviation is SQRT(npq) = (1/37 x 36/37 x1000)^1/2 = 5.13
The top numbers occur about 40 times which is over 2.5 standard deviations off the mean. This means on their own there is an 80% chance these frequencies would not occur by chance alone. However, as they form part of a group with increased frequency on both sides, we can be almost 100% certain there is a definite bias to these numbers.
If we played this dealer when he spins normally from zero clockwise, when he throws a 4 second anticlockwise rotor then betting on numbers 15,19,4 we will be betting on 1 show in 25 numbers. That's a massive 44% advantage over the house.
When he spins another rotor like 3.5 or 3 seconds then we will need to have examined what happens for this rotor speed. Or else we don't bet. We have a chance to count the rotor speed before we bet.
When he spins clockwise from elsewhere it's just an offset. For example if he spins from 5 red then the best numbers will be 16,33,1 and the numbers around them.
When he spins the ball anticlockwise we will have to get some data, but hopefully it will be a mirror eg 3,35, 12 would be the best spinning from zero or 23,8,30 spinning from red 5 etc. But you must check. Anti and Clockwise spins must be treated independently. The ball can hit different diamonds or come off in a different place so it must be assessed.
If he does a fast or a slow or a strange spin (chatter on the ball or backspin/sidespin) then you don't need to bet. Only bet his normal speed spin and a rotor speed you like or know what will happen. If you are really observant, you can time the ball as well as the rotor to make sure they are in range, but you will have to do both and get the bets down if they are OK. In practice with a consistent dealer, I don't bother timing the ball. I just watch to see where he releases, and how, as well as time the rotor. If it's obviously an unusual fast/slow or tricky spin, then I don't even bother timing the rotor, I just don't bet that time.
In this case, I was dealing, but also predicting the fall off number using VB. It was generally in the range 8-33 (most common 10) which explains why there is a peak at 15 to 4. We are basically looking at a scatter plot clockwise from a 10 strike which on this wheel at this rotor speed gives a scatter peak at 24 pockets 2/3 of the wheel. There are lots of other scatter values too, as it is a very difficult wheel to read, but 24 pockets is a typical value at this rotor speed, and enough to give a scatter peak.
You don't have to use VB with dealer's signature, but it is useful to combine methods to confirm what is happening. At the very least, look at the fall off diamonds and scatter, even if you don't predict the fall off number.
In my view, dealer's signature and VB are quite closely related. It's the same spin but one is just an earlier prediction than the other. So many parameters are the same eg Rotor speed.
What you need to look for.
1. Consistent dealer ball speeds. Best are slower and shorter spins.
2. Consistent rotor speeds that you can work out what happens for each rotor speed. 0.1 or 0.2 second intervals between each speed.
3. Fall off diamonds which are consistent really help. A one pin game, two pin with overlapping scatter peaks, or 3 pin with 2 dominant ones. Watch what happens to the ball and where it starts and ends to see what consistency there may be. You may have to watch for 20 to 30 spins or more before playing. Just make the minimum odd cover bet on an even chance every few spins.
4. If the wheel is all over the place, but the dealer is good, wait till that dealer goes to a better wheel later. If the wheel is good but the dealer random, wait for the dealer to change. Know the dealers and the wheels. You need the right dealer and the right wheel.
5. Treat C and anti-C spins separately. Watch the starting number, watch the rotor speed, watch the throw. You don't have to bet that spin if it isn't right.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/16/source86cda.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/Ua6xr)
Firefox's data on a standard deviation graph
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/16/source9a589.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/UaEkK)
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2019/03/16/source90ae4.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/UaW0B)
Ten pocket section graph of Firefox's data. Again, a standard deviation graph.
^ Many thanks for those!
Here it is obvious (I hope) we should be betting in the 0 to 17 sector for these conditions. There are various ways to smooth the graph including curve fitting, cubics and quadratics. But non of that sophistication is really needed for something like this.
A running mean of 3, n becomes {(n-1) + n + (n+1)}/3 and a couple of other tweaks also makes the scatter plot easier to visualise.
See attachment.
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 12, 01:24 PM 2019The wheel is slightly tilted to produce a 2 pin game
Hi, short questions: what is a 2 pin game ?
tilted to produce
or tilted, therefore it produces a 2 pin game ?
tnx
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 16, 12:53 AM 2019each rotor speed. 0.1 or 0.2 second intervals between each speed.
How you measure 0.1 second time intervals without beeing thrown out ?
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 12, 01:24 PM 20192 diamond dominant dropzone.
You have a
2 diamond dominant dropzone, why don't you distinguish the results ?
Quote from: Firefox on Mar 12, 01:24 PM 2019Data 200 spins
200 spins from the same dealer ? Same day ?
Thanks in advance for the answers. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Herby on Mar 16, 04:44 AM 2019
Hi, short questions: what is a 2 pin game ?
tilted to produce or tilted, therefore it produces a 2 pin game ?
tnx
A 2 pin game is one with 2 dominant diamonds. The word pin coming from bagatelle, pinball, or ten pin bowling denoting a vertical object a ball strikes.
Tilted to produce I believe is correct usage, but certainly "tilted so as to produce", or "tilted in order to produce", are clearer.
All groups of 200 spins were from the same dealer (me) on the same day over 5 days on my wheel (see video). In releasing the ball, I was aiming for the same steady pace, 8 to 10 revolutions round the wheel.
I have a 2 diamond dropzone, but one doesn't know which diamond will be hit at the time of betting. Therefore for practical play purpose, we are concerned with the combined results from the drop zone. I could have split the results but this does not have practical betting use, and complicates the data collection and presentation.
The scatter hits from each diamond will overlap. For example a ball which just clips the first diamond will have a longer scatter, while a similar ball which just clears the first diamond may drop to have a more solid hit on the second diamond which results in a shorter scatter.
I chose 2 diamonds because it represents something which will produce clearer results, while at the same time a practical thing you can find in the real world. 2 and 3 pin games are most common while 1 and 4 pin games, much rarer.
As for timing the rotor speed, I can time to 0.2s quite easily by counting ABCD1 ABCD2 etc. I believe more advanced visual players can time to 0.1s without using any device. You would have to contact The General to see how that might be done!
The impact between speeds depends on the length of the spin, and the rotor speed. For example the difference between a 4.0 and 4.2 second rotor is 0.44 pockets per second (0.2 pockets per second for 4.0 to 4.1 second rotors). Over a 12 second spin, these would be 2-5 pockets error respectively. That's not much when betting a 1/4 or 1/3 wheel sector. You are still going to be in the frame. But clearly as spin lengths and wheel speeds increase, the error is greater.
However, it is up to the player when he bets and what dealers or speeds he wants to play. One doesn't have to bet. This is one advantage the player has over the casino. He can decide when he wants to play, whereas the casino has to honour each legal spin it throws out there.
QuoteI have a 2 diamond dropzone, but one doesn't know which diamond will be hit at the time of betting.
I don't understand, the reference vertical deflector should be the last one in one specific direction - then the other vertical deflectors hit before the reference deflector will get a donation and ball jumps into same or close to the same area.
For example if you have 9 and 6 a clock and ball cw and rotor ccw - then 9 a cloack is reference deflector and 6 a clock will sometimes donate ball jumps into same area as 9 a clock scatter patterns.
Do you agree or do you look at deflector hit in other way?
Cheers
Hi firefox,
thanks for the good infos.
You are the dealer, you tilt the wheel, supposedly for experimental purposes.
Are you able to measure the tilt in degrees ?
@Ego, I agree with you there. Use the last/second diamond at "9 O'clock" as a reference. But sometimes, I move the prediction point back 2 pockets to the line on the wheel or back 4 pockets to the horizontal deflector if things are not working so well. Sometimes conditions drift, the air gets heavier or maybe grease on the ball, and the first diamond seems to be hit more, so I have no problem moving the reference a bit if it gets better results.
I reckon glance on the first diamond and solid on the second will group in the same place at around 19 in this example, so it's the double contribution making a big scatter peak.
But there are two other peaks not worth betting on as only average results. One is around 18 which I suspect results from solid hit on first diamond, and one at around 30 which may be from glancing hit on second diamond. If I had followed Herby's idea, I may be able to confirm this, but there is still a lot of "noise" from unusual things happening or spinners which leads to random results which could go anywhere!
Quote from: Herby on Mar 16, 03:02 PM 2019
Hi firefox,
thanks for the good infos.
You are the dealer, you tilt the wheel, supposedly for experimental purposes.
Are you able to measure the tilt in degrees ?
Yes I am the dealer here. I am not an expert dealer, just casino wheel at home, but I have thrown many balls, and I can throw a consistent ball which say goes for 9 rotations in this example. Minimum rotations for a legal spin is 3. Most casino rotations are in 10-15 range which I can throw easier with heavier ball. (I have lost my heavy 21mm ball in house move. I need to get another)
I tilted the wheel for the experiment, and I tilt it sometimes for VB practice as I look for 1 or 2 diamond games if possible.
However the tilt is very small. I don't have a special level which fits in the ball track, but I have dipped the ball track from the level and it is quite accurate. Within 1 or 1.5mm which considering it is machined out of wood and then hardwoood inlays then durite ball track resin applied over 800mm diameter is amazing. Its like 0.2% accuracy in wood and resin. I don't think anyone can do better with the materials. These Cammegh wheels are works of art and science.
The photos show the tilt applied. It is the minimum you can see on a 900mm spirit level. I measured the packing required to get the tilt difference shown on the level. It is the difference between a 2 and 3 diamond game on my wheel (4 diamond game is very difficult to produce - I don't think you see many casino wheels with level 4 diamond games)
The packing is 3.5mm
Ball track is 700mm dia approx on 800mm dia wheel
Tilt as measured is tan-1 (O/A) = tan-1 (3.5/700) = tan-1(0.005) = 0.286 degrees = 0.005 radian
TanTheta = SinTheta = Theta for small angles, and this angle is very small.
Is the tilted wheel just an add-on to your test? I mean: one would believe a tilted wheel belongs to the wheel bias category, whereas the thread is called dealer signature.
How would you differenciate the origin of an exploitable deviation from expectation, if it comes from the wheel or the dealer?
In extenso: from throwing balls on a wheel, do you get a better "feel" of the dealer and able to identify signatures easily?
It goes hand in hand with what The General says about limiting degrees of freedom. By forcing the ball to fall off at one place/quadrant , I am eliminating or softening one variable. It doesn't matter too much if I spin 9 or 10 revolutions. An extra revolution will only take half a second at the start of the spin. The rotor travelling at 9 pockets per second will only move 4.5 pockets in that time. So even the difference between 9 and 10 ball revs is just 4.5 pockets. So at drop off point we are still in the same ball park. The numbers appearing under the ball at drop off are still sensibly the same and given the same scatter profile, we have the plots as shown.
Of course I am aiming for the same steady throw just as a bored dealer might, and I am throwing the same rotor speed each time. And I am throwing from the same spot each time. But all those variables can be assessed before we bet. If my pit boss tells me to vary it and I throw a 14 rev ball that's 2 or 3 secs longer which means the other side of the rotor is presented to the DZ at fall off. Now betting 19/4 sector is in the shadow, and favoured numbers will be 33 sector. We wouldn't bet this spin, and probably leave at some stage if they are obviously and deliberately trying to change the conditions every spin.
Dealers signature would still exist if there wasn't a 90% dominant drop zone like we we have here, it's just harder to see. Say the ball falls off 40% at one diamond 30% the next then 20% then 10%. That's typical of more wheels you'll find. But you'd still have 70% of balls complying with the pattern, with the next diamond giving you random balls, and the last giving you shadow balls. So instead of 40 occurrences in 1000 we might see 34 for the dominant numbers... still worth betting on. But they will be mixed in with random other numbers performing well, so the scatter peak is much smaller and more hidden.
I'd differentiate the occurrence of signature from inherent wheel bias numbers by looking at what was happening before and during the spin. First I look for a dominant dropzone wheel. Hopefully at least 70% or more on two diamonds adjacent. Then I look at where he releases, where the ball ends up, and how it gets there. In this case for this wheel I'd know what the scatter signature was at that rotor speed, so I look for the ball going a certain number of revs round the wheel, coming off in the dominant DZ, looking at the number under drop off and then scattering say 18 or 24 pockets into the same sector. This is shifting every spin. Say he spins from zero under the same conditions (as the test) and 10 to 24 appears under the ball in the DZ - great that's 19/4 predicted, but the prediction doesn't work because it gets a long roll, or a spinner, or goes up the cone and bounces back and it lands in 10. Now he's spinning from 10 not zero and we are looking for zero/26 to appear under the ball in the DZ and an anticlockwise scatter into the 8 to 11 area. Now he hits 11 and spins from there clockwise so we are looking for 28 in the DZ and 8 to 24 area. Every number which matches the prediction falls into the pattern of a dealer bias number, but they may be different numbers on every spin. Whereas wheel bias numbers are the same regardless and just occur whatever is happening elsewhere. If the dealer is too random throwing different rotors and ball speeds, I can't get a handle on what is going on, so I'll go back to VB or find another table.
By home spinning no, I don't really get a better feel for what casino dealers do. If another person spins, I have still have to track/record the physical variables. Rotor speed, fall off point, scatter, fall off numbers, number of ball revs before fall off etc etc. Sometimes the dealer throws a wobbly ball (chatter) or sometimes there is a different sound or there appears to be backspin or side spin; this may make the spin 2 revs shorter. That's about 9 pockets different on a 4 second rotor or 12 pockets on a 3 second rotor. If a dealer does that a lot, I'd personally avoid that dealer, or not use them for DS.
Great answer, thank you!
No problem!
I'm not saying to anyone this is a HG method. It needs the right wheel and the right dealer. Also the right knowledge of different makes of wheels and what are typical scatter plots at different wheel speeds. Also, the ability to filter out what is the dominant/typical bounce and scatter roll spin from all the other noise and unusual things which are going on when the ball hits the diamonds and the rotor. The ability to clock ball release speed or at least be able to count revs for other spins and recognise when he is throwing a similar speed. The ability to accurately count rotor speed within about 0.2 seconds, knowing what range of speeds and conditions to play. Knowing how to stay hidden and milk conditions while they last. It's not something you can play without some study, and it's not something you can you can play all the time because conditions fade or disappear outright very fast.
I think Ego has a very telling quote.
QuoteAP- It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful
Nevertheless it's great to have 22 come up with a chip on it because you predicted 0 would be in the DZ, and you know for a 3 second rotor a typical bounce and scatter for that wheel is 27 pockets. Alternatively, 22 comes up but you'd bet on 18 and 9 instead. Then you know you have an advantage, but still lose! It's very similar to VB in this respect but also subject to a lot of the same frustrations.
I'm wondering if anyone has done any similar testing on their home wheels, in the intervening years?