Hi,
If any of the forum experts could help with understanding the below scenario,
There are 10,000 computer generated bettors betting on a coin flip 13 times.
On average there should be 1 of those bettors on win streak of 13 in a row after 13 bets.
After 12 bets, there is only 1 bettor on a win streak of 12 in a row.
(The way that I concluded that 1 bettor should be on a 13 win streak (out of 10,000 bettors) is that if 1 bettor made 13 bets in a row, they would have a 1 in 8192 chance of winning 13 in a row. So instead, I took 10,000 bettors and each of them made 13 bets in a row. And on average 1 of those 10,000 bettors should bet on a 13 win streak after 13 bets.)
I can see the real time results and win streaks of all the bettors and I can see what each bettor's next selection is.
If I only bet when after 12 bets and there is only 1 bettor left on a win streak of 12 in a row. And I copy this bettors next selection. On average, should this bettor next bet:
-win 100% of the time, to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row?
-win 50%, given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?
-or would the result just be what it is and the law of averages are just a guideline?
Though over time wouldn't the results revert to the mean average? And if it were to revert to the mean, would it revert to 100% wins (to satisfy the law of averages that 1 in 10,000 bettors should be on a win streak of 13 in a row), or would it revert to 50% wins (given that heads or tails each have a 50% chance of winning?)
Given that I can see the win loss data & win streak data of all 10,000 bettors real time, know what each bettor next selection is, and if I only make a bet when there is only 1 bettor left on a 12 in streak, is there any way I can use this information to make a profit?
thanks in advance for any answers,