Greetings All.
It will take a few days to get this in order but the intention with this thread is to set up a robust workshop where we can experiment with ideas for success in professional play.
It would be great to have a truly interactive space where good ideas can be forwarded, discussed, created, tested, and results posted.
This can be a place where 'the cards can be on the table' and hopefully we can assist one another to become more effective players of Roulette and adopt a more professional approach to play so as to achieve more consistent success. Results speak for themselves.
Hopefully can open the thread for business on Monday.
This is an experiment. With any experiment there is risk. However if we keep our focus on the intention here, how can we go wrong?
Intention is to improve our play to professional levels. From any activity we know this can be a bridge too far for some. But what a joy it is to see the best professionals, say in sport, at work/ play and see/ share what they can achieve with such fine judgement.
Take the recent Man U/ Man C Premier League match and the level of intensity and focus over 95 minutes. The anticipation, the speed, the consistent application, the teamwork, the communication, the risk taking and yet the sublime co-ordination that can result in a goal such as provided the winner. Imagine the practice and training that went into producing a sublime result such as that.
Why not aim for such quality in aspects of our focus and use that as a benchmark, an inspiration.
The intention here is to create a workshop - imagine a Formula One workshop - immaculate order and organisation.
Within that workshop key parts are ready for assembly by well trained Technicians.
Testing will have to be done and much training by/ for the Driver to enable that Ferrari to achieve consistent high achievement yet with safety and endurance.
So this is ambitious.
I would like to invite many contributors/ readers to provide key ideas, key parts that we can structure together to build a framework that we can openly test and eventually drive the parts to the highest levels of performance by tuning/ tweaking/ adjusting and practice.
This is an extension of an earlier and brother thread which has been exploring and meandering along to find better ways for the past 9 months. The opportunity here is to be open and explore and rate various fresh approaches, as well as the best of what we know now.
Intention here is to be consistent and push forward. We dont want negatives and cant do's and they will be edited out anyway. Cynics are not welcome at this place.
The team approach is the collective force of us. So the more you put in the more will come out that can help us collectively become better and more effective players. Good results mean benefits for us and those we love and care for, and dont we all want to increase our collective prosperity at will, by use of a passport that is international and timeless.
Is that not the intention of professional play and the more effort we put in that can engage and produce, we will be rewarded. Life does that.
Lastly I want to make it clear that the false and hyprocritical moral high ground that past scammers have used and caused such distress has no place in this work. This thread is a direct and clear attempt to build a web of knowledge and method that can benefit all who put in the finest effort.
Notice I have used the term professional 'levels'. It is step by step and leap by leap. I like it when there is no limit to a goal, it is never ending...
So lets get underway and we are open to ideas and suggestions.
To kick off some discussion lets nominate the subject of runs and chops in sequences of play.
Definition of a run, say two or more of the same outcome in a sequence. Ideal when three or more in a sequence as a parlay can be played.
Chop is a sequence of one or two identical outcomes regularly or irregularly interspersed between opposite outcomes.
What is the best way to handle such extremes.....
Just to be clear here Charlie.................
are we generically calling it a run or a streak?
Lots of fellows know it as a streak.
U may delete me (well not me personally, as i quite like me, but this text, if it inappropriate!!)
Good point. You are correct, lets call it a streak for consistency here and then no misunderstandings.
Question is how to identify and handle choppy play spin by spin, live. ( Very different to the luxury of hindsight in testing).
Now you may want to get really specific, eg EC outcomes, Doz/Col outcomes and say RO/BE + BO/RE outcomes - all have got different characteristics.
One of the best ways that I have found to untangle results is to try and create some kind of order.
When dealing with even chances, I like to put the results into pairs and create some framework to work around. There are still no guarantees but I find it can really help at times.
I posted up some info on a thread a while ago which will explain in more detail what I am talking about. It was comprised over several posts, so please excuse me if it looks a bit disjointed.
After reading it over a few times, you should get the gist of it.
First of all, I would like to show you 4 different groups of results.
1) WW.
2) WL.
3) LL.
4) LW.
If you take any pair of results, it has to land in one of the above 4 groups. There is no other alternative. So any one of the above 4 groups has a 1/4 chance of appearing = 25%.
Now think about this, on a roulette layout, there are three dozens and we all know from experience that one of these dozens can go missing for a long time now and again. In fact sometimes up to 20 spins. A dozen represents a 33.33% chance. Now considering my 4 groups above have a 25% chance of appearing, is it therefore not logical to assume that one of these 25% chances could go missing for an equally long absence or even greater absence than one of the dozens. I can conclude by using probability alone that this is more than likely to happen on occasion and one of these 25% chances could go missing for 20+ appearances.
Here are a range of numbers between 1-4 that I just downloaded from random.org.
3 2 4 4 1 3 1 1
2 1 2 4 2 1 3 3
1 4 3 4 4 4 3 4
3 3 4 4 4 1 3 3
4 1 1 4 4 2 4 4
4 1 4 3 2 2 4 4
I will now convert them into the following.
1. WW.
2. WL.
3. LL.
4. LW.
LL, WL, LW, LW, WW, LL, WW, WW.
WL, WW, WL, LW, WL, WW, LL, LL.
WW, LW, LL, LW, LW, LW, LL, LW.
LL, LL, LW, LW, LW, WW, LL, LL.
LW, WW, WW, LW, LW, WL, LW, LW.
LW, WW, LW, LL, WL, WL, LW, LW.
So looking at these, I want to see if I can find some long absences for any one of the 4 different groups.
LL=3.
WL=2.
LW=4. (1 MISSING)
LW=4. (1 MISSING)
WW=1. (3 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
WW=1. (2 MISSING)
WW=1. (2 MISSING)
WL=2. (4 MISSING)
WW=1. (4 MISSING)
WL=2. (4 MISSING)
LW=4. (3 MISSING)
WL=2. (3 MISSING)
WW=1. (3 MISSING)
LL=3. (4 MISSING)
LL=3. (4 MISSING)
WW=1. (4 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
WW=1. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
WW=1. (2 MISSING)
WW=1. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
LW=4. (2 MISSING)
WL=2. (3 MISSING)
LW=4. (3 MISSING)
LW=4. (3 MISSING)
LW=4. (3 MISSING)
WW=1. (3 MISSING)
LW=4. (3 MISSING)
LL=3. (2 MISSING)
WL=2. (1 MISSING)
WL=2. (1 MISSING)
LW=4. (1 MISSING)
LW=4. (1 MISSING)
If you go down to number 18 in the groups I posted in the previous post, you will come to a LW. Now the furthest back group from here is a 2 which consists of WL. That 2 group dissapears without a sniff for a further 20 appearances. What does this mean and how can it help us? If the 2 is absent (WL) this means you can only get one of the following, WW, LL, LW. So looking at that, you are more than likely to catch a L at the beginning of the next pair and catch a W at the end of the next pair. So let's check and see what happens on these next 20 pairs without an appearance of the 2.
The L comes up at the beginning 16 times out of 20. WOW. It is also worth noting that out of them 16, 11 of those were in a continuous streak. This kind of information can save you a LOT of losses.
At the end of them pairs, the W comes up 13 times out of 20. Two decent win streaks, one a 4 and one a 5. So some nice wins to be had there.
I will try and go into more detail here regarding the triggers that I have talked about.
Let's have another look at the following.
1) WW.
2) WL.
3) LL.
4) LW.
Anyone of these pairs has roughly a 25% chance of appearing at any given time. Like I also previously mentioned, this means that one of them can go missing for a long time. In one example I shown earlier, the WL (2) went missing for 20 times. This meant that we only saw either the WW (1) LL (3) or LW (4). As I pointed out, as long as the 2 continued to be absent, we were more likely to see a L on the first result and a W on the second result of each pair. This indeed happened.
So let's look at all 4 triggers and see what happens when one is not showing up.
If the WW (1) is missing, this means we are either going to see the WL (2) LL (3) or LW (4). So it is more than likely the first result in the pair will be a L and it is also more than likely that the second result in the pair will be a L. In my opinion, it would make sense not to make any bets when the WW (1) is absent. From experience, I can tell you that I have seen some pretty nasty losing streaks. This goes for any system. You could be sitting with the one of the best systems ever designed and there is nothing to say that you can't hit the mother of all losing streaks. Hey, these things happen, after all, we are dealing with a dynamic random game. The best you can do is try and get the timing right.
If the WL (2) is missing, this means we are either going to see the WW (1) LL (3) or LW (4). So it is more likely the first result in the pair will be a L and it is also more than likely that the second result in the pair will be a W. Here is where you can try and take advantage of the W in the second result of the pair. If it is trending or coming about average, go with it and keep going till it breaks.
Remember, we are only playing between 4-6 streets. We do not really even need to break even here sometimes. Over a period, if the 2 continues to missing, you could have a few more losses than wins and still be breaking even or showing a profit. Now I am not telling you to break any rules or go against the triggers. But it will sometimes happen that we get the right trigger for a bet, but we lose a few. Once again, it happens, but it does not have to be a disaster for us. In the example I showed you in a earlier post where the WL (2) went missing, the second result in the pair threw up 13 out of 20 W's. This is a good example of how it can work. On the flip side, we were expecting L's in the first result of the pair and we certainly were not dissapointed with 16 out of 20 losses. That could have seriously dented anybody's bankroll.
If the LL (3) is missing, this means we are either going to see the WW (1) WL (2) or LW (4). So it is more likely the first result in the pair will be a W and it is also more likely that the second result in the pair will be a W. This can be your birthday and christmas all at once. There are times here that I have hit a win streak of over 10+ and once again because we are betting just between 4 and 6 streets, the wins can soon build up. If you have the patience to just wait for the LL (3) group to go missing, you can be richly rewarded. It is actually not a bad idea to start out playing the method like this. It can build up some profit for you and is a good introduction. If I had to play one trigger and my life depended on it, this would be the one. Once again, use common sense. It may be that the first result in the pair throws out 10 winners on the trot and the second result in the pair throws out 10 losers on the trot, now because you are playing between 4 and 6 streets, there is still a good chance that you will be showing a profit, however, my advice is if something is not showing, don't play it, so it might be a good idea to stop on that second result of the pair after the first few of those 10 losses.
If the LW (4) is missing, this means we are either going to see the WW (1) WL (2) or LL (3). So it is more likely the first result in the pair will be a W and it is also more than likely that the second result in the pair will be a L. So really, here is the reverse situation of the 2 going absent. Look for the streaks of the W and jump on board for the first result of the pair and avoid the streaks of L in the second result of the pair.
There are times when these 4 groups change over without any long periods of absence, it always pays to be vigilant. There are no guarantees. The best you can do is go with what is happening. If you see them changing over a lot, wait for them to settle down a bit. If you can be patient and are a disciplined player, I highly suggest to just wait for the LL (3) to be missing. If you want to be a bit more aggressive, then take advantage of the good streaks on the absent WL (2) and LW (4) as well. Avoid the absent WW (1) if you can.
Dear FlukeyLuke
Thanks that excellent information. This is just what I am hoping to achieve here if we can assemble ( from various parts of the galaxy of information on this forum) methodologies, breakthrough knowledge, ideas to help us collectively push forward.
Great stuff.
Thank you XXVV, this thread has the potential to be of great help to all who participate in it.
It is definately true that you learn a lot more about your own game by openly sharing ideas and discussing them.
One thing I would like to add to my post above.
Obviously the W represents a winning bet and the L represents a losing bet.
A long L streak does not necessarily have to be a bad thing. You can bet the opposite of your bet. Call it an anti-bet if you like. We have no way of knowing in advance if the wheel is going to play ball regarding our chosen bet selection. So rather than fighting against it, the anti-bet can also be a winner for us. It is a great feeling to come home from the casino knowing that your method absolutely tanked and yet you still came home a winner.
Here is a quick example.
This is the table.
RR = 1.
RB = 2.
BB = 3.
BR = 4.
B
R (4)
B
B (3)
B
B (3)
R
R (1) So the missing pair is the (2) This is the R followed by B. Now if the 2 continues to be absent, it is more than likely that the first result in the next pair will be B and the second result in the pair will be R. I also like to look at this point and see what's trending. The first result of the last pair was R, so I am not really sure I want to be playing the B on the first result of the next pair.
The second result of the last pair was R and as that would be my intended bet, I am going to wait to have a bet on the second result of the next pair.
B no bet here.
B (3) I was on the R here and that is now a loss of -1. Now looking at the pairs, the last 4 results have registered (3) (3) (1) (3) This is the strongest trend at the moment. If this continues, I am likely to see either BB or RR as the next pair. As I don't know which one it will be in advance, it makes sense to wait and see what the first result is of the next pair first.
R so now I will bet the R on the next spin hoping for the (3) and (1) trend to continue.
R (1) so that was a winner and takes me back to level.
I am a strong advocate of the saying 'the trend is your friend'. When deciding what bets to place, I always like to look at what is currently performing the best. In the above example, you could argue that playing the R on the last result of the pair was risky because of the B on the last result of the previous pair. My answer to that would be that the strongest trend was showing up in the pairs (3) (3) (1) (3) and this indicated a bet on the R after the R came up in the first result of the pair. There was also the added factor that the (2) was missing and therefore R was preferred for the last result in the pair. If yo are able to monitor all the E/C bets, you will see some amazing trends using this style of play. The trends will be either supporting your bet or throwing up a horrible losing run. This is where the anti-bet can be employed.
I will give a more detailed example tomorrow when I have more time.
Thanks for that FlukeyLuke
Yes I like the reversal betting on a loss. It has something of that 'zero' quality about it.
Here is a little string of sample data taken from Wiesbaden 7th February 2011 and Table3 446 spins
This compares streaks frequency and duration for Red EC, Black EC, and RO/BE ( and includes zero appearance, ie 21 numbers). Note however zero itself is not used as trigger.
Definition used here, say three reds in a row, this is a streak of duration 2 as the first appearance is the trigger. Such applies to all three categories.
RED EC
Duration 1 21 appearances
2 17
3 3
4 2
5 5
6 1 *value 103
BLACK EC
Duration 1 23
2 16
3 6
4 3
5 -
6 1 * value 91
obviously pretty choppy
ROBE streaks
Duration 1 20
2 8
3 8
4 4
5 5
6 4
7 2 *139 still a choppy result
Of the 446 spins
R 225
B 206
0 15
There were 121 instances of individual Red or Black then change. This includes instances where zero came between two reds say. Choppy.
With a statistically sound sample base it is possible to derive a Quotient Factor for degree of Chop or Streak.
Working on this, although maybe a bit academic.
It was interesting that throughout the 446 spin sample that same choppiness
in Red Black behaviour was apparent and consistent.
However I guess in practical terms we just need a benchmark to know the degree of variance possible. On the spot and in the heat of the play we need to quickly assess and stake accordingly, and if necessary adjust or step aside for a while and go virtual.
Clearly F/L is right when he suggests going to reversals. When blocked by chop, reverse what you are doing (which was losing) and then you can win. Look at that +400 spin sample of consistent chop in one aspect of EC and largely so (90% ) for the RO/BE work. The 2 x7 runs occurred from 350 spins onward. Playing the consistency of behaviour in Red or Black EC would have brought big win.
Please feel free to suggest the next topics, or I will.
Here is another example.
Table.
RR = 1.
RB = 2.
BB = 3.
BR = 4.
R
B (2)
R
R (1)
B
B (3) So the missing one here is the (4). This means if the (4) continues to be absent for a while, it is more likely that the first result of each pair will be RED and the second result of each pair will be BLACK. Now looking at the trends, I will refrain from betting RED on the first result of the next pair because I see the previous pair produced a BLACK first up.
R So I missed out on that particular one but I will certainly be betting RED on the first decision of the next pair. For the second result of this pair, I am anticipating a BLACK and that will be the bet.
B (2) A winner.
For the first decision of the next pair, I am anticipating RED to appear and I will bet on that.
R A winner. On the second result of the pair, I am anticipating BLACK and that will be the bet.
B (2) A winner. So things are working out quite nicely at the moment. The (4) is missing and that means I am expecting to see a RED on the first result of each pair and a BLACK on the second result of each pair. This is the equivalent of a (2) and as you can see, the (2) has appeared the last twice. The next pair was also a (2) and took me to a profit of 5 units.
What this shows is that even when results are chopping, as long as you have some kind of framework to work around, you can make profits on the E/C bets.
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Over the next few days we are going to look at and test several examples of streaks ( same -runs), and also the corrective entropic forces of chops ( change). Refer to the C/S thread. Will be using some Wiesbaden data to demonstrate what the pro players use on EC bets.
Recall the Louis Holloway streak data on EC bets at one table :
Every 2/3 hours a run of 8
Once per day run of 10
Once per week run of 14
Once per month run of 17
Recently in the live casino environment I encountered a streak of BLACK that went 22 but was interrupted by one zero two thirds through.
You know that parlay suitable streaks occur every 7th outcome on average on any one EC outcome and you can play to catch a streak from the outset by playing both options on the EC bet and simply compound massing the winning outcomes and replacing the losing outcome. Taking a profit regularly on this may be a simple and effective technique. Test it. Play on the privacy of a rapid roulette screen to avoid the usual dumb comments from others.
Will have some specific examples and results soon.
You might like to look at the good ideas being discussed by Carsch et al under the Full Systems/ 4 Sectors of the Wheel thread.
By flat staking a nine /ten number bet on a target that is genuinely running warm to hot, there is a good return ratio, low risk and high degree of success in streak phases. The BWAB approach can turn the bet on and off and the returns as demonstrated can be remarkably good without the risk exposure of progression play.
There are some valuable principles discussed in that thread as well.
The method can be extended from wheel sections ( there are various ways of sectioning the wheel and these can be overlapped and can include zero), to other sets such as table streets, sixlines, EC characteristics, doz/col combinations and even finales of numbers in groups of four- that is the key.
Some of this knowledge overlaps with other writers, and I have used variations of this work to target and hit one number alone sometimes by overlapping several groups of four.
However I think the smartest approach is to choose a spread that relatively consistently produces positive results on flat staking and not over complicate play. An example of this is to target the ten numbers around and including zero, and when that section ( as one of four) is running warm to hot, attack it in bursts of 6 spins as outlined and developed on the thread, or in a way that you can tune with a system of triggers and stops to go virtual at times for max efficiency.
Some work on Incremental Analysis (IA) soon to help us look into the future and also some gems from the quaintly titled "Full Time Gambler" (shock horror) of LG Holloway who was decades ahead of his time, and paved the way for true professionals. This book was first published in 1969.
This is the idea behind IA, and am grateful to a pro colleague for discussing this with me.
We can use an analogy of hunting also, and setting traps, because we know the familar tracks our target(s) will take (in the future) and we know and have measured past, recent and very recent activity. We can almost hear the action. We can certainly sense it intuitively.
Then we wait and remain still, patient.
Its like fishing too isnt it and how many times have these analogies been used - but here I hope with added freshness because the tracking is more efficient and the trap/hook is proven.
Proven by past research and testing. Efficient by use of IA.
So incremental analysis looks at a recent and proven accurate sample of the roulette play, say 20, 50 or 100 spins. 50 is particularly useful.
Then we make two columns left and right.
On the left we test, on the right we set the traps and play.
Divide (say) 25 into 5 groups of 5 spins.
Put them on your left column and as the outcomes unfold, check the results to see if the 'bias'/ skew/ imbalance on the observations of the original 50 spins are still there, or are they changing.
You can go with the flow or if there is clear evidence of a swing in place then on the right hand side in clusters of (say) 5 spins you can set the traps.
Your choice is to go with same or change. If there is no evidence of change stick with the current 'bias'.
If say you are monitoring W and L, then one W after a long losing streak isnt enough, but perhaps 3 out of 5 might be, as you go with the tide.
It is risky to play for change as that may be the Gamblers Fallacy trap you are falling into but that principle is more about wishful thinking than hard evidence which IA can provide, in bite size increments.
The method can apply to streaks of many varieties, and can be de-tuned to say groups of 3, or ramped up to clusters of 7 or 10.
You can see how you can set the trap bets though in small groups.
The IA approach may be useful of course when you have more time and are in 'virtual space' mode. Am applying this to my testing live spin by spin work thats underway. This is all part of the training for the new campaign in March.
Also here is a little bit from Lou Holloway's book - the original Englishman in New York - but he never got stung!
Some portions of this I will paraphrase so apologies to the Estate but it should result in more sales.
Based on 100,000 spin sample he made a GAP BOOK. Each number was tabulated in terms of the gap figure between hits. Then each split, corner, street, six line, dozen and column, and all EC was "gapped".
This condensed the big run of numbers and gave all a new dimension and the ability to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.
Totals of every approach were graphed and the peak of every cycle was determined - the key of when to get in and when to get out.
This is the key to what I keep harping on about - setting the parameters based on large scale testing which will give us a (temporary) edge when we apply this overview knowledge to our particular area of opportunity in the game.
Mr Holloway suggests also the following guidelines on repeats. ( You can refer to Roy Ward Dickson as well as some other classic writers).
Twice within 10 spins - follow for a short time.
Three within 20 spins - follow for 10 spins and another ten when hits.
We all have our pet theories on this but this writer was a trail blazer.
What I am excited about is the "gapping" and the staking/ management.
Lyle Stuart gives this man tremendous respect and in fact re-published this edition in 2001 as the originals are out of print.
On that subject, Baccarat ( the mini bac version) can also be a useful adjunct to pro roulette play and the money management aspects that Mr Holloway utilises in several casino games can be cross transferred between roulette streaks and the streaks on that simple game.
Some might call it that but if you can win +USD250K in two Baccarat Tournaments ( as did Lyle Stuart) that is serious enough for me.
Later some research on staking on streaks.
You will gather this 'workshop' has various departments and if I stray into money management or cluster theory please forgive me. This is intended to be an (organised) cuckoo nest collection of lots of shiny 'objects' collected from various sources ( some very near, some very far) and assembled for our immediate use and benefit when re-assembled and fueled, ready to rumble like Mount Panorama.
We are looking to capitalise on streaks.
Suggest format into W or L *
* This is Win or Loss of the bet. The bet may be a single spin cycle or a cluster of spins, 2, 3, 4 ,5 or 6 spins say.
Trigger may be a W
....then play on to allow streaks to flow. Streaks are runs of wins. It is a characteristic of natural phenomena that they can cluster in sequence, and if wins are being recorded, a series of W outcomes.
Stop on a L
Re start as a Win is a trigger.
But if encounter two losses in a row this may be your signal that the cycle has ended, or you can trial and error and try to go longer. You will need to conduct 30 session tests to have sufficient data to make a good choice. Recently I received a false signal because I thought by session 11 it was looking so good, it had to be a winner. Not so. Massive reversal over next 10 sessions - way too volatile.
Also vary within these sessions access to various sources of data.
All have large number characteristics, of cycles within cycles within cycles. All samples have their unique characteristics, that is why you dare not reverse engineer a method from one small sample. The 'small' sample can be 20,000 spins. Reverse engineering is fatal.
Weigh up benefit of a W against cost of a L
Easier to balance if the two figures are identical or close.
There is scope here for a lot of trial and error. I have some preferred combinations but you may find better.
Key is to find a consistent generator of streaks.
Streaks may occur 15 -25% of the time depending on the bet selection.
The real profits are made in the streak outcomes , ie more of the same.
Step aside from the choppy stuff, indeed you may put yourself into virtual mode, 50-70% of the play, and just come live when you find a streak is unfolding.
Again you will have to define that but I find 3 or more W outcomes in a sequence are a good sign. Two winning outcomes in row could be a trigger to go live as an idea. These are frontiers of research, although they seem so simple.
Hope this assists. It would be good to hear your experiences. XX VV
Did I say 80% there with testing.
Not so easy as that - I call it IK - Instant Karma - no sooner do you think you are there and you tell - fatal error.
She is a jealous mistress.
OK now to explore GAP theory and also a more effective trigger and exit for STREAK theory.
Lots of work still to go before Tuesday and if not ready I will just go and watch.
Clearly a more sophisticated switch ( trigger + exit) is necessary.
It may be wise to exit while still winning if you know the relative spread, duration and percentage of likely streaks.
Those greenfield streaks are what we are out to harvest. A trigger may also be a propensity in a game for the streaks to run as opposed to short brittle chops - lots of noise -not much signal.
It seems also that a simple trio parlay ( ensuring of course you kick off as soon as possible for step one) may be a very good 'compromise'. I am measuring their relative frequency amongst some of the more difficult result sequences also.
The fascinating thing now is transcribing these words/ ideas into concrete rules of action -physically manifesting what you sense is there.
Good Hunting XX VV
I was also thinking after reviewing test results on attempts to catch streaks, that if I could eliminate the double loss at the end of a 30 game session ( as this was my exit strategy ( crude), in say 50% of the outcomes, I would increase net result by over 500 units, and thus would have had 10 winning sessions out of 10.
The parlay, by definition, is one way of eliminating such wastage. So I will think some more about this idea and re-test spin by spin samples.
There has been some very interesting work I have been kindly directed to on VLSroulette. Thread by Know When To Quit (KWTQ).
This is a long thread going back 18 months but is well worth some study in a couple of key areas.
The writer uses four or more methods when going to the table and adapts his approach depending on outcome opportunities. His earlier analysis using 'exponential' graphing of outcome patterns in EC outcomes is very useful when after a suitable sample, anomalies can be revealed ( ie far fewer outcomes of say one are than the expected half fewer RR outcomes which is the 'exponential curve' according to the writer). Observing imbalances/such anomalies he plays by overlapping the correction expectation ( take care with gamblers fallacy if utilised too soon) with another imbalance say a loading of H versus L or a sleeper column.
( The logic can be reversed of course and it may be safer to target the warm to hot patterns - same- while they are manifesting rather than a hunch to switch- change.)
Given the 60 seconds available between spins ( often the case) then great organisation and preparation is required. Sometimes leaving a group of spins to play virtually is very wise anyway and a great opportunity for analysis.
The writer clearly utilises his collective experience of 15 years play with a term used by one of my favourite writers 'choosability'. When not carefully managed or without key variables monitored, choosability can be a fickle friend.
KWTQ however appears to handle the wave of information with great skill and also in most recent posts appears to have mined a very fertile part of targetting key numbers, that of 'warm' numbers.
They are between hot and cold and bubble along often with frequency and energy when monitored in cycles of say 37 spins or more.
Combining several overviews with some wise and experienced judgement may mean that luck can be temporarily ignored.
Such play cannot be stated in simple rules, as it is discretionary and rules can be safely broken which would be bewildering for a novice. The writer appears to be consistently successful and I wish him well, but never let that guard down.
The really important points though are the targetting of a section of the wheel at times, and especially the quick and accurate analysis of a sample of data ( say 20 spins or more) to give an exponential analysis. Lets call it EA.
The IA I have been referring to earlier in this thread was for say 5 spins.
EA ,(at 20 + spins) here may look at other factors but is a wonderful tool and I will lease it immediately for my ROBE/BORE work!
The targetting of warm numbers, using some fuzzy logic ( refer matrix work) is a potential goldmine when you can neutralise/ dampen the variation between fizzing frothy warms and cooler and getting colder warms, so as to avoid long and dangerous progressions.
Again it is a matter of setting the ' trap parameters' to define your target.
At the moment I play a method which targets just such opportunities and my selection is simple, probably too simple, in seeking a triple appearance of a previous double appearance candidate within a certain cycle of spins.
Targets can range from one ( ideal) to the most I have ever encountered in one nightmare game, seventeen. Average number of targets encountered in the cycle and the terms I play is slightly less than four, so is frequently an opportunity for a flat staking gain.
I bluntly play flat so regularly take small losses rather than chase the whales.
This is a technique I am now going to revisit thanks to KWTQ and EA.
Sometimes the obvious solution is right under our noses and we miss it. Its like looking at the test psychology picture - you see one version but just can sometimes be blocked to see the other, reverse version.
Just so. Instead of closing the session with two losses - sure its a signal, but the loss of 30 or 40 units is crazy.
Instead the terms for finish, exit strategy, are two consecutive wins. Its not hard, and they are not rare.
Difference between the two versions may be +60 units!! Fantastic.
So far re-testing using this fresh approach on my more difficult games recently reviewed using test data from Macao, Wiesbaden and other German Casinos has been a revelation.
I am also formulating a set of sensible rules so that 'discretion' can be reduced and consistency can be obtained and others can be taught. I will schedule these in the next days given that good results keep flowing.
Some great links also with the thread set up by Esoito under the title finding ways to bet on streaks/trends in the General Discussion section.
I will be honest also, and do state that sometimes too much knowledge can get in the way. I have, in earlier times, sat at a table and been in a state of shock unable to engage the knowledge I have as I was not thoroughly mentally trained and prepared.
It is better to find a very few ways and master them rather than spreading yourself too thin. Sure there will be times when some work better than others and we need flexibility but not at the expense of swift and appropriate action to take advanatge of an opportunity or damage control in a challenging situation.
Looking forward to setting out these rules - about 7 of them I believe.
This is getting interesting and I have given careful thought to just how much I should say. I still believe in a maxim that self effort is the most rewarding as long as genuine leads and guides are given. I dont know all the answers at all and if I did, anyway it would be foolish to publish all as even then it might not be understood or appreciated. And of course someone will always be able to improve the strategy.
As it is I can make some real headway and from there we can all develop our own valid approaches.
There is a complete matrix of possible outcomes of course, and from showing just a few you will get the picture.
I see it as a sort of chess game with (relatively) optimal solutions given certain prior moves and context.
First it is necessary to agree on target goals that are realistic in the context of the method chosen.
I think +50 to +100 units is good profit for a session which might run 30 -90 mins max.
Realistic bank might be 500 units taking the advice of the great Lou Holloway. Might be 5 sub banks of 100 units though.
Stop loss might be 100 units approx in this context - something that we can quickly recover if we have a relatively consistent method.
To give you some idea of where I am coming from this is for reasonably balanced alternative outcomes, ie Red-Black, Odd-Even, RO/BE-BO/RE, etc.
For larger income on smaller value units (or can play bigger units on outside table) I am tending to play these options with inside table bets now.
This is also because I 'overlap' techniques sometimes to give an extra 'edge' to my targetting.
I break results into W or L for win or loss outcomes and I look for patterns with IA, EA, or streaks and trend patterns. In fact primarily I am hunting streaks.
There can be streaks of W and of course like a mirror, streaks of L, losses.
Each accounts for 20% of outcomes approximately.
Trigger for me now is to climb on after a W.
After a L, I stop and await a successful W before climbing on again.
No longer do I exit on a LL. How foolish was that!! No wonder my results were so volatile. Now I exit on a preferable WW. Results have improved more than 100% since I changed that perception.
Have a look at the following situations. Then you can extrapolate the rest.
W
WW
WWW
WWWW
After 4 consecutive wins there is my profit goal.
L
LL
LLL
LLLL
After 3 consecutive losses even with my circuit breaker in I stop and go virtual until a double WW manifests.
Also
LWWWL
and
WLLWWWW
What about ....
LL then W
Play on....
LLWL
Play on....
LLWLL
Play on....
LLWLLW
wait
if
LLWLLWW then all clear and go for it...
if
LLWLLWL
you might play the loss as a bet ( reverse)
LLWLLWLL
play the W
Stop loss may cut in by this stage but whatever it would be good to finish on a W and then wait and see.
Runs of losses are as rare as streaks of wins so there is no need to panic but watch the choppy stuff.
Short term patterns or use of EA may help you.
If too hard just write it off and find an easier one to play - strategic retreat.
With my current approach I am obtaining 8/10 or even 9/10 results that are postive in sequences of mini sessions making up a cluster of 30 games for a maxi session. One session can be 10 games , or 5 games depending on duration. One session per day.
If unable to finish on a WW, at least finish on a W, but to that there can be exceptions, see below...
If start shakily or adversely exit at first profit point
eg LLWLWLLWWWLWW
If start well and a bump is hit take the profit if your goal is achieved
eg WWWWL
or WWLWLWW
or WWWL
If start in chop just soldier on and await a triple
eg WLWLWWLLWWW
If you have paused because of adverse chops go virtual and await return of short runs ie a WW for every L, then exit with small profit.
If 3 consecutive losses pause! then wait for the loss streak to abate, and remember they may come in groups of two, so be patient before going back in.
I think you will see my drift here.
For my technique I am preparing a matrix chart that gives me the ideal move for every particular outcome in a series, a bit like Blackjack and Perfect Strategy. Of course this has varied over time as Fuzzy Logic is better understood.
I have a lot of work to prepare this for live play very soon now.
So I hope this helps as food for thought. XXVV
Adding to these thoughts a couple of C/S principles...
Get in and get out of a game as quickly as possible, dont dally.
Dont ever find yourself in a situation where you have made a modest profit but less than your target and the tide turns and you lose a bet, but still have b/even or close to it. Never place a bet that would extinguish your earlier hard won profit and worse, leave you in loss ( thanks to Arvis for this).
If in a loss situation, say LLL and you are pausing, then get a signal to proceed, WWW, dont struggle to recover all the losses. Mitigate the damage then get out of it asap. For example -41 units is a lot healthier than -105 units, and quicker to replace.
Many games are choppy and if the tide is turning against you, you could step aside for a while and wait for a clearer direction to show. It might be you bet Loss for a while ( ie reverse your bet).
Reviewing the task ahead I have now considered designating the logical and actual steps in a series of outcomes with a number code and then to use that in a series of statistically sound 100 spin/ 120 spin samples.
e.g. W is a trigger
but it can go WW (ie 1A)
or WL (ie 1B)
then WWW (ie 2A) etc etc
From that evidence I will tabulate the results and that may help weight the preferred bets to give the best return in net units in a real sequence of live play. There will always be the best option plays. These are what I am trying to find and then apply consistently.
This can also be done in a W and L format to study the patterns and again test the streak frequency theory.
It is a logical process and while going through live play situations will also be recording results to code and tabulate that night in the hotel.
Hope to have some data to publish early next week.
Please note what I am doing is VERY different from straight EC outcome play, which would have alternate best strategy play. Each individual player will need to tune their particular method of play and choice of bet to a unique matrix.
What I am trying to do, in helping myself, is to show in principle the steps in the process so others can apply and benefit directly.
Here is the result of a first study of 111 spins from German Casino data.
Purpose of this study is to investigate the sequence of Win (W) and Loss(L)outcomes from results.
This is not spin by spin live response but review of past data.
Simple W is trigger and L is a stop with restart a W.
There are deliberately no other pause signals in this approach ( even after 3 consecutive losses), as I am not interested in the overall + or - result. It is irrelevant.
32 W
29 L (overall result -129 units)
Best fast result was 5W-1L after 15 spins (+54 units)
Best overall result after 50 spins 13W-5L (+90 units)
Best after first WW signal exit 3W-1L (+24 units)
and next signal WW opportunity 8W-4L (+36 units)
With this approach I am analysing data in elements ( note code as earlier suggested).
After each signal to stop the outcome sequence is broken and hence an element is isolated, eg:
W
L
---- or WL/ WWL/ L/ WL
W
W
L
----
L
----
W
L
----
I will print out the full sequence of 111 spins after this.
L after30 spins 2 after 111 spins 12
WL 2 8
WWL 1 6
WWWL 1 1
WWWWL 2 2
You can see that the EA analysis after 30 spins shows a big skew to streaks and that there was a shortfall of single L plays at that stage (re,member exponential analysis).
Thus in the following 81 spins there were 10 L and 6 WL elements.
This would give very good earning opportunity by playing for a Loss ( a reversal) which would give +20 for a success and -16 for a failure.
This was a good example of taking a streak opportunity when it materialised and taking profit before it ( as always) corrected later in the cycle.
This is the series outcome
WL/ WWWWL/ WL/ L/ WWWWL/ WWWL/ L/ WWL/ WWL/ L/ WL/ L/ WL/ L/ L/ WL/WL/L/ WWL/ WWL/WWL/ WL/ L/ L/ WL/ L/ WWL/L/ L/ WWL/
Am going through several of these 111 spin sequences in order to ascertain the general characteristics. These outcomes have been set out from the point of view of W priority and there are three elements that streak in 17 overall, ie about 20%.
When reversed and looked at from an L priority there are also three L streak elements ( defined as three or longer of W or L).
Clearly the benefit of an exit strategy after a WW is demonstrated; also the benefit of seizing an opportunity and taking profit before the inevitable correction ( the true nature of roulette). As the correction swings, the reverse strategy can be applied and an equivalent profit taken on the other side.
Clearly the cycle nature of the game has to be read accurately and quickly.
I find that streaks of a similar nature cluster in the short cycles.
Hope this helps and I will be applying this overview in live play, spin by spin decision making, when targetting streaks.
Well a lot of live play experience since last post and there are several key points to emphasise, learn from and apply for future work.
First I must acknowledge fresh sources and hence to Lyle Stuart's company for publishing R.D. Ellison's book (2002) on Roulette : Gambling to Win.
Second to thank JohnLegend and S/Doo for developing a couple of brilliant plays, but in particular the work on (Choppy) Dozens -"Two of a Kind" which at the time of writing is being developed on his thread under Roulette Systems.
John makes those earlier key points that a pro method has to have regular and reliable strikes, and then to apply good banking management with a professional and consistent self discipline.
I am averse to progressions but a short stepped progression under tested conditions may be appropriate here. It seems as JohnL states that streaks of wins may be quite extensive with this method and certainly that is what I am foremost searching for amongst several options.
This method appears to have streaks of 10 + quite frequently but substantial testing is necessary because how often is it that 2000 'games' may be analysed ( say 3000 spins) yet early results can be misleading.
So far my own experience has been very good but I will still be monitoring for test purposes individual 100 spin sessions with spins taken from various live casino sources.
The advice here is go for sets of +5 points in groups, with a gradually increasing unit value as your bank grows in value.
Step by step by step with great patience, and with great respect to be shown to your 'adversary'- ie the casino house edge.
I play with sufficient unit value to be able to permit a small 'insurance' bet to cover zero so that should that happen the effect is a small bonus.
This is the luxury of a 35-1 payout versus 1-2 odds on playing 2 dozens.
We all agree a key factor here is recognise the role of the correction factors - clusters of Loss. Get out before they come or at their first appearance unless you switch your bet to catch them thus targetting 2-1 action. ......... ( reverse bet). Remember this is the key advantage you have over the House. You can leave at any time. Quit while ahead wherever possible.
The material in R.D Ellison's book is direct and for the professional regarding advice in strategy and psychology.
There are substantial advantages now ( even more so than when the book was published) to play with reputable internet casinos that are genuine live feeds.
Last night I tuned to Bet 365 from Latvia, then to Asia and my CNN live feed on SKY matched their live feed of CNN in the background of the wheel, to the second.
Keeping a simple bet is preferable in these situations, although preferable to avoid complex progressions in case of technical feed problems. The other night when I had major inside bets I did have problems but this I believe was coincidental and principal outside bets avoid this problem for speed of placement and avoidance of error by the player.
As R.D. Ellison points out when we walk into the Dragon's Den - the B+M Casino: then we are subject to all their counter and subversive measures to distract , tire and confuse us, as well as appealing to our inner personality enemy 'compulsive' elements.
It is an appealing case for the internet casinos who can supply feed at high efficiency and low cost in overhead for them. You can play in the comfort of your favourite surroundings.
As professional players we must seek to minimise our negative risk exposures. There are pros and cons listed in his book for various casino types but with the advent of genuine and well managed live feed casinos then this is the place to build the pro bank and avoid all the hidden costs and extras of the travel destinations.
Very different to the romantic notions we may harbour I know, but the reality is why make the pathway extra hard - it is tough enough anyway.
In due course there can be room for all experience, but first must come the toughening, tempering process of discipline, discipline and more discipline.
Also suggest spreading play over say at least three casinos so as to not overload or overstay your welcome in any one place. Test all for speed of withdrawal facilities first. Keep your floating balance modest.
Remember as a constant -"The True Nature of Roulette".
You are given access to trends and short term edge - read this and take advantage of this and then exit fast.
It is a reading of the game, and with JohnL's excellent method judging the placement of entry and exit to avoid in conventional play the correction phases of loss.
The test samples need to be sufficiently large to say with some conviction and proof that the most frequent nature of sequences is streaks between corrective clusters. Measure those loss passages. Analyse just how bad they can be and at what point you may have to exit and take a loss.
Some open questions.....
Is it possible to play this method flat staking? Or if not what is the most risk averse stepped progression? Realise how smart your opponent is - always awaiting your mistake and over extension. See the roulette game as interactive at all times and never leave your guard down.
Can the method be applied to columns?
Can the dozen and column analysis overlap?
Can other methods overlap with the trending for chop/ change in the dozen sequences?
I know it is dangerous/ extra risky to play two methods simultaneously unless you weigh carefully the needs of each and regularity of strikes in each.
To keep the purity and focus of one principal method is probably the best way. If that method is out of phase/ in correction mode then leave the game and take a small loss if necessary. Start afresh elsewhere is best, after a break. Make your profit and sleep on it. Enjoy it.
These are very exciting times with a lot of very worthwhile research and testing underway.
At this stage I am taking a month or more out to comprehensively research and develop the very best bets that can be found and to summarise the principles of professional self management and money management.
My goal is to use this Forum and the threads in which I am involved to assemble and order this material and publish it.
This thread as the Workshop Thread is probably the best outlet.
In setting this out with pros and cons, this will primarily be done to clear my own thinking, eliminate any confusion or misunderstandings, and prioritise the best and most effective ways to generate consistent profit.
In helping myself thus and sharing it I will be able to help others, so it is a win win. Thats the stated intention. It will take several weeks to assemble and the ongoing research by some writers/ researchers/ players is worth waiting for as well.
What will remain private is where a colleague has requested such.
It is time soon when we collectively can say yes there are methods that work*. Here they are and these are the rules to apply. Then it is up to the individual to make his/ her own way and apply.
* We should know by now that the True Nature of Roulette needs to be understood and qualifies all our approaches. I suspect that all methods will have phases of success and failure unless inbuilt with the rules are entry and exit points to mitigate the inevitable corrective phases. Sometimes we may be able to reverse our bets and take advantage of these shorter phases.
What we will be learning to read and take advantage of are trends and short term patterns. Even those techniques with 'moving frames of selection' - ie windows of opportunity will vary from cold to cool to warm to hot.
Next week this selection process will get under way with a lot of material covered that will gradually become reviewed and refined and edited until we can distill the essence of our Quest.
We need to eliminate all that is blocking our progress to the goal we seek.
That goal is freedom of course. Why else would you put yourself through the tests and trials, the roller coaster ride such that has been my apprenticeship in this sphere of life. If I had known from the outset what I would have to go through would I have wanted to proceed? We are blessed that we dont know the future.
As it turns out the study of roulette and its professional application is a microcosm of Life itself in all its dramas - its highs and its lows, its secrets and its treasures.
So the goal is the consistent access of income through professional roulette play sufficient to enable ever greater degrees of freedom in our lives that benefits us and those we love and know, and also in some instances total strangers. That is freedom to grow and to share.
There need be no limit to this.
On the other side of the coin, the administrators and workers within the casino business derive substantial income.
When Donald Trump investigated the Hilton Hotel chain he found the two best income earners in the entire Hilton network were attached to casinos and they produced the substantial proportion of the group profit. So he entered the business to derive massive profits.
As a few of us start to understand more and more about the true nature of roulette we find that the accurate reading and acting upon short term trends are the key to success as a player.
Those profits for the casino operators will always be generated but as we come to understand and learn more about the secrets of this sphere we can access also some of these riches.
There are hosts of adversarial forces that would try to distract you from seeing and understanding the principle of observing and following short term trends. We need to filter the negatives; then remove them; then simplify our lives so we can find sufficient focus and energy to attack this goal.
Over the coming weeks I will set out in more detail some methods and overview to approach this great and worthy goal, one that is totally misunderstood by nearly everyone including the players themselves.
Success in this will mean a new life.
Moral of the story at this time is TEST.
Test wide sources of data from live spin sources ( un- edited).
Sequences of numbers are not seamless ( as per theory) and sequences/ sessions have their unique energies. This is pragmatic, tested and proven by experiment science.
Testing of Pattern Filler (JL) is the current focus with end game variations to multiply profit over 3 x EC's over say 4 sequences of three spins.
Experiment ( trial and error) will determine the best constraints/ variables to tune this.
I believe we can achieve in the order of +15 units ( outside table bets) in say 75 spins with this method and roll on for a few cycles. However as always with roulette, the key is to exit at the right time and don't overstay.
There is an opportunity to go with inside betting as well by overlapping PF method with one or another methods to target zones.
More on this soon. Testing for consistency and will publish results of testing this week.
Interesting and wise words here :)
Jon
Please note the thread shaping on Pattern Breaker and P4 where we are exploring a new extension of Pattern Filler and also ongoing testing for the very interewsting matrix extension of P4.
Further to recent context of testing methods.
When using data ensure a session is kept distinct as in the true nature of roulette it is cycles within cycles and there are tides and currents , ebbs and flows, swirlings ( note water analogies) of short term trends and skews, from which we can take advantage.
There are short term corrective tension forces that would seek to redress balances and ensure the long term balance that is expressed by probability theory.
However in the short term ( relative but say less than approx. 120 spins or 3x 37) then we can use short term imbalance and trends in certain methods, and the corrective elastic forces that would seek to fill the missing elements in the numerical jigsaw - such as the missing eighth pattern ( eight out of eight) in Pattern Breaker/Filler.
In this case we can play for it to remain unfilled, or reverse this and play for it to be re-filled, even partially step by step.
This latter is the method I currently favour.
Hence it is imperative to use live data results that you personally schedule, or use trusted data from a live casino such as Wiesbaden. I am sure with Teutonic thoroughness and engineering precision these can be relied upon for accuracy.
Edited data such as bulk number summations which do not separate sessions completely miss out and misunderstand these primary forces.
This is the sub mathematics ( quantum analogies) that can bring success with roulette, by looking at the world in several ways at once, because that is reality.
OK here we go with a recent test again using live session from DublinBet.
This links with thread on Pattern Breaker and the posts on page 35 and recent supportive comment by JL.
What I do emphasise with this method is that the progression is kept simple and hopefully will only be rarely broken by keeping within my suggested constraints ( still subject though to testing to establish whether it can be lengthened).
Here is the Dublin Bet data set out in triads
10
1
14
12
28
18
0
22
22
13
27
23
3
26
30
28
9
25
16
9
34
7
24
25
29
34
24
19
11
5
2
15
15
7
4
26
19
21
(0)
5
17
30
21
33
5
21
21
20
5
26
29
15
10
31
7
23
28
36
26
4
5
14
4
33
(0)
7
2
24
8
5
17
11
16
9
13
5
26
16
12
9
24
2
18
27 spin 84
LLL 1 BRR 1 EOE 1
LHL 2 RBR 2 EEE 2
HHL 3 BBB 3 EEO 3
HHL RRR 4 OOO 4
HHH 4 BRB 5 EEE
LHL RRR OOE 5
LHL RRR OEO 6
HHH BRB EOO 7 and OEE becomes the eighth pattern
HHH RBR EE*O +2
LLL BRB O*OE +1
LLL BBR 6 O*OO +1
LHH 5 BBR EE*O +2
HLL 6 RRB 7 O*OO +1 and also RBB becomes eighth pattern
note advise take profit after four ie +6
HHH R*RB EOO +1 and (loss -11)
LHH R*RR O*OO +1 and (+1)
HLH 7 BRB* EOE* +3 and (+3) and LLH eighth pattern
HL*L BB*B O*OE +2 and +2 and (+1). take profit on four ie +7
HL*H BRR O*OO +2 and (loss) and (+1)
HHH* BRB* EE*E +3
L*LL +1 take profit on four ie +8
by taking profits on four the total is +6+7+8 = +21 units(and we avoid loss)
the basic PatternFiller result is +2 +1+2 = +5 units
As you gather the basic progression is 1,3,7 ( ie risking 11 units)
Hope this is clear and this method seems to have very strong reason for success and evidence so far supports this.
Generally on average about 60 spins is generating about +20 units.
As we have seen before in roulette play one of the key variables is timing - when to get in and when to get out.
This can be based on key signals or criteria learned from experience - there are optimum times to engage/ connect/ implement a technique, and a time to exit, a strategy based on observed behaviour and guiding you as to the safest or most reliable range of profit which you can take before getting hammered by the corrective forces.
There is as JL has observed me observe a window of opportunity which we must learn to apply.
Some bets offer very small opportunities, but the better bets offer greater scope, and I believe the PatternFiller method/ where the eighth pattern becomes revealed ( by the previous manifestation of the seven prior patterns) is a wonderful signal to play, either as a one -off (one spin) attack on this pattern being achieved, or as I now firmly believe an ongoing targetting of this eighth pattern step by step, until the pattern is achieved and even sometimes carrying on after its appearance as there is a lot of balancing to be done by the corrective balancing forces which in this case we are using to our advantage for a short time.
This window of opportunity can be 12- 99 spins say (ie 4 to 33 patterns) as we move through the three EC options which usually manifest at differing times.
I have tested several more sessions now and worked through games where there has been an unusually early triple loss on one EC, and carried on to recover some or all of that (say -11) loss.
I am wondering if a way could be found for a reward when the full eighth pattern is revealed - this usually takes some time, but that would entail playing on after a first hit.
For example HHL is revealed as the eighth pattern.
Say after playing for 21 further spins the H is hit then the H (second H) is hit, and because of that we play on and the final L is hit.
This could be on a step by step sort of parlay bet, ie say 1,2,3 sequence, or 1,2,2.
So earlier play instead of being one 'peck' at a time might go on.
Or perhaps better as the full eighth pattern usually takes some time to reveal especially if the overall spin count is quite low, the we might play the more usual one 'peck' at a time approach for say the first 7 triad patterns, and then go for a more aggressive approach to pull off the full coup.
This extra may be un- necessary risk in relation to reward, and I am merely thinking aloud here.
From my testing to date you can reasonably consistently work toward a +20 unit return on about 60 spins from start of observation. This is also by working through an earlier setback such as in one case an early double set of triple loss ( ie 2 x -11) on the H/L sequence. Play carried on and losses were neutralised by gains on other EC triads as well, so that overall a +22 unit gain was achieved, and play went to spin 90.
It is still a matter of careful discretion when to take profit, but at the moment I am setting the reasonably achievable target at +20 units playing the 3 EC patterns on PatternFiller using the one 'peck' at a time approach.
The other essential point to make here is then to close the window of opportunity.
Do not continue playing/ testing until a new session is commenced.
Tests/ play that are continuous will always fail as they misunderstand the true nature of roulette in that play must be broken into qualifying sets and subsets, as it is in the nature of the game to provide short trends and bias which will evaporate if overplayed.
Hope all this is clear and understood by now but the principles are well worth repeating.
This approach now in focus I propose to use as a future 'anchor bet' for future play. Testing continues. And in this particular case the infamous 30 session test of 100 spins may well be appropriate. Its a lot of work but if the win ratio is sufficient, and the 100 spin criteria certainly is appropriate, then success in that test will be most encouraging.
For those of you who are interested here are the results of the last six sessions tested on this variation of the P/F method.
I am increasingly encouraged that this is a wonderful way to play in that it seizes the opportunity/ the window as to when to climb on board, and the option for exit strategy can be in 3 levels and no play ever continues beyond 120 spins, in fact most sessions can be closed by 60 to 70 spins.
#1
Level One being P/F method +3 +1 +2 = +6 units
Level Two being at least a further three cycles +17
Level Three optimising opportunities (peak before 100 spins) +35
#2
Level One +5
Level Two +21 (cutting at 4 cycles)
#3
Level One +4
Level Two +22 ( in spite of early double triple loss!)
#4
Level One +7
Level Two +19 ( cutting at 4 cycles)
#5
Level One +4
Level Two +17 ( cutting on 4 cycles)
Level Three +39 ( retraced to +28 by 100 spins)
#6
Level One +5
Level Two +20 ( recovery after early triple losses)
So this is producing an average return on P/F play - allowing all three EC's to have the eighth pattern deduced - of +5 units on say an average of 50 spins
Level 2 play is enabling a return on average of +20 units over say 60 spins. Sometimes an early triple loss is encountered ( ie a reversal of the eighth pattern) prior to the eighth pattern being manifested which sometimes can be prolonged. However by playing on part or all of the loss can be recovered and in some cases profit can continue to accrue.
I have been trying to establish reasonable parameters or constraints as to a suitable profit and I still think the +20 units is a fair return.
There certainly is an opportunity to play for a longer period and take the risk of encountering the losses. Have not yet experienced a triple loss on two EC's in the same cycle.
Also there is the possible goal of scoring the entire eighth pattern by playing three spins in a row and anticipating three wins. That is why I have called this Level Three or Level Four because the playing progression can be changed from1,3,7 for when sufficient earlier profit has been scored and then more of a part parlay bet could be played say1,2,2 or somesuch. However it would be foolish to erode earlier hard won profit and the earlier phases may be more than enough.
I like the way that randomness is covered by the EC cover and that the cycle of opportunity is activated by the trigger of the eighth pattern being deduced. We are working with the forces of balancing on our side here, and not being deluded by the traps of the gamblers fallacy where we might fool ourselves into thinking that the awaited correction is just around the corner.
We know here that by practical, empirical observation that it DOES occur within a specified range and we can 'peck away' at its partial or eventual total manifestation, until we have a reasonable and consistent profit.
It certainly looks very promising as a professional bet at this stage of testing.
Well XXVV,
As eloquently as you have been explaining your thoughts, I'm beginning to feel a little under-educated in the business of word-smithing even though I have authored a published novel.
One thing that might be of some help is something I saw in a book entitled "Beat The Casino". The authors name escapes me but he had compiled two groups of 5,000 decisions. One group from the game of Craps and the other from Roulette.
By adding up the streaks into lengths of 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 and 12, the number of specific streaks decreased gradually from 4 to 7 but when the streak was 8-in-a-row and longer, there were very few. There were none over 12-in-a-row.
So in other words, the "tipping point" is 7-in-a-row. This was based on the 50/50 chances of Roulette and Craps.
I don't know if this type of info is worthy of this thread but I am in hopes that it will in some small way contribute to solving the riddle of the game.
Scooby Doo
Thanks Scooby
You are quite right. Was it Frank Scoblete ( apologies if incorrect) and I think from him I learned the term "guerilla" style play - hit and run.
On the bad side of the ledger he edited spin data like the brilliant Australian mathematician and roulette writer, Martin Blakey who took data from Launceston casino and compiled 20,000 spins but failed to distinguish sessions. Being a purist mathematician and player always of 16 targets he never believed in a consistent edge with a method but attacked by means of 4 corner bets which in his later years he has adjusted to the shorter cycles of the live game.
His methodology involving sometimes bucket loads of sweat was designed to dig yourself mathematically out of horrible holes quite often. At other times it was a breeze.
Thus his numbers were seamless because a 'session' of results, at least in his earlier view, meant nothing.
By the way his book is wonderful reading - check on Google.
On the good side of the ledger, the scheduling of duration of streaks is a fab idea, and LG Holloway, Full Time Gambler is the man who trail blazed that approach and I believe it has been further explored by French and German mathematicians and roulette theorists since.
Mr Holloway identified the average time it took at the live tables for various duration streaks on EC to manifest.
By sheer patience and preparation he knew what he was waiting for, and climbed on board from the outset once a suitable space of time had elapsed.
As he put it, on a monthly basis sufficient profit would be available from EC streak betting, to purchase a car with the profit. On a monthly basis on one EC alone, a streak of 12 or more was produced, and the table limit was the only constraint.
On an anecdotal basis I have seen screens of Red or Black exclusively ( ie 15+) on a monthly basis on my R+B casino visits. Take a look at Wiesbaden and work out the duration frequencies. I have mentioned them elsewhere on the other thread.
Mr Holloway also provided hints of other strategies and his advice for 'spacing' of events, separations, are extremely valuable.
The idea of a 'tipping point' of effectiveness is really good and we are searching out methods that can encourage streaks, hence my work with RO/BE and BO/RE sequences.
It needs a decent data base to measure streaks duration and frequencies, and it seems the PatternBreaker/Filler is very good at enabling consistent streaks at various levels.
Level One play seems to provide lengthy runs even at the simple 1,3,7 progression.
All we need is sufficient evidence, then we can plan an attack, build a suitable balance of risk and return in the progression, then apply and possibly compound the streak as it runs. The streak can be a run of your winning sessions, and the unit value can steadily be increased.
Good progress on this at the moment and we hope within a week sufficient research will have been completed on PB/PF in its various levels, to put this theory into live action.
It is this 'tipping point' where I have suggested say four cycles of play to produce sufficient profit, and be sufficiently consistent and safe, for level 2 PF play. At this time not sure. Maybe two. Maybe just keep going till your overall 3 xEC goal is reached. This is what we are testing.
Next week will publish recommended guide anyway, and clearly we are in fertile territory.
Hi XXVV,
I got the name of that author...It's Frank Barstow
Scooby Doo
Thanks yes.
That is another of the classic books, and he is a great character of Wall Street, surprisingly more the old school more conservative type. Not the current "Inside Job" variety.
His reading of short term trends in the section on roulette is very helpful.
Completed enough testing for now on PB/PF to see its strengths and weakness.
Results are on P36 on the Pattern Breaker thread.
Will come back to that one later. Played on 2 or 3 levels, but even level 1 is not clear of punishing risk exposure with progression. This is not suitable for flat staking, but level 1 and 2 play can have long winning streaks, ie +30 wins on level 1 and. +10 wins in Level 2.
What I am going to endeavour to do over the coming 4-6 weeks is to schedule the best of the methods that we have public access to within the Forum and other outlets.
I would like to then run a comparative test on say several ( say 3) x 100 spin sessions selected randomly from Wiesbaden.
Then some notes on management.
Then some notes on psychology of professional roulette play ( we wont call it gambling) and fitness on every level so we achieve peak performance.
On that subject I was fascinated to see an interview yesterday with a brilliant professional athlete talking about the emphasis now on 'recovery' as much as anything else.
Under this heading the correct gear and exercise for performance and after performance is so important. Even the gear for extended air travel to prevent any clotting or thrombosis.
Well also for our work the importance of handling stress, anxiety, even depression, and 'winding down' after a session, relaxation, massage and best sleep.
I can recommend the new book by Timothy Ferris -follow up to the 4 Hour Work Week - this the 4 Hour BODY Book - packed with information on leading a fuller healthier and more productive life - I take it a bite at a time, and its like a treasure chest with the website links scheduled.
First steps first lets get the very best methods assembled.
Fundamental to our quest will be to measure the fastest strike rate, the best one to utilise in relative simplicity, and in payout in relation to cost. The need to run for 100 spins need not be enforced. The best will be the quickest to score and exit. The 100 spins is there to enable some to recover from early setbacks.
More soon.
Again and again it hits you. Get in and obtain a suitable and sensible profit. Then get out. Short cycles.
Perhaps from a well practiced and proven set of techniques, apply one at a time, suiting conditions, then strike and take profit.
You can see how this suits internet casino play, like selective shopping, just call in and walk away with the acquisition. Just be selective and avoid the questionable outcomes. Stick with live authenticated casinos.
Suggest preparing a schedule of best locations and have accounts over a selection.
Your session can be one spin if a successful coup and from prior research you have a suitable goal.
Then accumulate profits.
Turn it into a private quest. How long can you push a winning streak, or better how long can you extend further your successful techniques. Push always to new and better outcomes. This is the real inner game.
Of course there is a place and time for longer play.
However it is hardest for the casino to beat you on such a gambit if you target one number alone, or one group. With pre-selection you should be able to avoid the extremes, ie the extreme cold, or even the extreme hots that go cold. Refer to Norman Squire - How to Win at Roulette.
One of my favourite techniques is to chase and trap zero. There are lots of tricks to this, more later. But how often do you hear tests of methods that go well but zero acts as the leveller. Its just another number with its own characteristics for the purposes of the wheel sections and the felt layout.
One way into this mystery might be to group the finales, the characteristics of numbers. Another can be the European groupings of numbers into zero section, tiers, orphans. More on this later.
Quote from: XXVV on Apr 24, 05:58 PM 2011
Again and again it hits you. Get in and obtain a suitable and sensible profit. Then get out. Short cycles.
Perhaps from a well practiced and proven set of techniques, apply one at a time, suiting conditions, then strike and take profit.
You can see how this suits internet casino play, like selective shopping, just call in and walk away with the acquisition. Just be selective and avoid the questionable outcomes. Stick with live authenticated casinos.
Suggest preparing a schedule of best locations and have accounts over a selection.
Your session can be one spin if a successful coup and from prior research you have a suitable goal.
Then accumulate profits.
Turn it into a private quest. How long can you push a winning streak, or better how long can you extend further your successful techniques. Push always to new and better outcomes. This is the real inner game.
Of course there is a place and time for longer play.
However it is hardest for the casino to beat you on such a gambit if you target one number alone, or one group. With pre-selection you should be able to avoid the extremes, ie the extreme cold, or even the extreme hots that go cold. Refer to Norman Squire - How to Win at Roulette.
One of my favourite techniques is to chase and trap zero. There are lots of tricks to this, more later. But how often do you hear tests of methods that go well but zero acts as the leveller. Its just another number with its own characteristics for the purposes of the wheel sections and the felt layout.
One way into this mystery might be to group the finales, the characteristics of numbers. Another can be the European groupings of numbers into zero section, tiers, orphans. More on this later.
Yes XXVV I like the hit and run approach in the beginning. Its all about building a financial fortress. Then you can be more daring in your pursuit of profit. I played a game of PATTERN FILLER yesterday that again produced a very attractive winning streak of 23 cycles even though I was a mere observer having banked after 4. Its there for the taking PATTERN FILLER is the ultimate variation of the concept.
Quote from: Johnlegend on Apr 25, 01:48 AM 2011
Yes XXVV I like the hit and run approach in the beginning. Its all about building a financial fortress. Then you can be more daring in your pursuit of profit. I played a game of PATTERN FILLER yesterday that again produced a very attractive winning streak of 23 cycles even though I was a mere observer having banked after 4. Its there for the taking PATTERN FILLER is the ultimate variation of the concept.
XXVV, im going on vacation in the early hours of tomorrow for 10 days. Im going to post up the pattern filler variation today. But I dont really like the name PATTERN FILLER. Im going to call it PATTERN *X* Partly out of respect for your acknowledgement and hard work and because until we know what the FINAL pattern will be, it is an unknown bet selection.
Thanks JL. Have a well deserved break. This has been a very productive few months, and a real step forward for us all. X
Ok I have modified an earlier post (edited out) that outlines my plan of attack for the next 4 weeks and at the end of that time I am off on a live B+M campaign trail and will use the seven methods outlined here and some extra in serious professional play.
Essence of this message is to focus on the criteria for slection of a method.
It has to be simple, effective, reliable, proven, consistent, high strike rate, good P/E ratio, and fast.
Management of it has to be cool and professional, yet with a clause that permits aggressive parlay opportunities when opportunity beckons.
Aim is to hit and run, rotating methods and winning coups that vary from one win to a small series of wins. We are taking advantage of the principle of statistical or relative Ecart ( deviation) in short cycles. This is the secret of success.
This thread was stated as its intention to be a Workshop of assembled and engineered bets, a sort of cuckoo's nest of shiny and polished gems collected from near and far with the intention to build an arsenal of great value and to share this information with those who care to tune in.
Here are 7 methods selected and some may surprise you. Please forgive me if I have not mentioned or included many other worthy techniques but the criteria are clear and my knowledge is still growing. Play is short and effective per coup.
1. PPPC Bet and variations as published.
2. Doubles Bet based on primary and secondary bets as forwarded to me (and published by consent).
3. Matrix Bet as initiated by CommonSense and developed Beyond CommonSense.
4. Bet within a Bet ( multi dimensions) by Iceman1313
5. Pattern 4 by John Legend
6. Pattern Breaker by John Legend
7. Divide and Conquer by Scooby Doo
The list is not finite but what I propose to do over coming weeks is to test and apply these methods in one concise location ( here) with some worked examples to demonstrate their already known effectiveness. As stated, purpose of this thread is to collect this material that I would personally use, and share it with clear examples, with those who can benefit also.
Then all I would add would be the key management and banking criteria and then ask that profits from this work are acknowledged and at least 10% of net earnings go to a worthy charity/ cause of your choice - for example KIVA or ProjectHopeful.org
I can guarantee that by disbursing a portion of your profit you will find that this principle is most effective and as some have stated, addictive in the most positive of ways.
Lets get this show on the road and I am going to go through these techniques one by one but backwards; so the first up will be Divide + Conquer.
Currently under testing and am exploring a possible flat staking application. Will report a suitable sample of results tomorrow ( played on progression) with a definitive explanation of operation and suggested management technique and staking plan, largely as outlined so well by Scooby Doo and JohnLegend.
There are several possible levels of bets available with this method D+C and purpose of this short schedule is to demonstrate what may be most effective, but remeber this still a workshop experiment.
Thesis : that we are looking for short cycle Ecart/ Deviation wins as opposed to the corrective Balance forces which erode net profit and return the net result to expectation. It is the short Deviation from which we seek to profit.
Hence it is crucial to find a suitable trigger to signal to start and from testing to recognise where we may step off and take profit.
After a lot of trial and error I believe a suitable trigger will be the passing of a short corrective phase, not necessarily only a really heavy one, but sufficient to keep the pot boiling so to speak, and with a parameter that keeps bet opportunities quite frequent. ( The other extreme would be to await a massive corrective loss, and once it has passed take one winning bet and quit).
So my criteria : a loss of two attempts or more on a target
e.g. xxW (1-3-9) actually a hit on 9 if we were playing continuously
or more such as xxxW or xxxxW or more.
As soon as the (virtual) play has concluded with a W (win) then climb on for a flat bet first attempt.
If it fails play again on the basis 1-3 ( max risk 8 units).
On a 1250 spin sample I found 40 hits and 3 losses, ie +16 points.
However lets take this a step further.
After such a setback I noticed wins often come in twos or more.
So lets play for two hits in a row after the trigger ( with the allowance to take two bites at this cherry at 1-3). Risk : 8 units.
1250 spins with 37 wins and 5 losses, ie 74-40 = +34 points. Twice as good a result. a bet every 40 spins on average.
So that's the theory - try for two wins in a row on a very conservative 2 step progression, after the appearance of a loss of two attempts or more prior as a trigger.
I also played a theory of a trigger being two losses in a row then playing for one bet only after on a flat basis, but if missed go to the next spin and up the stake 1-3-9. Risk 26 units.
1250 spins
30 bets
30 wins. No loss
+30 points.
About one betting opportunity every 40 spins. Of the 30 bets, 24 were achieved as a single attempt win. that's 80%.
Exclude any bet that went beyond the one attempt and the net win is +18 points.
No need to risk the kitty with any further extended step progressions.
Note how all the analysis of the D+C data is positive. Very few losses.
Lets accentuate the positives and be selective as to entry and exit points and where to pitch the bet, then this is a great method to build upon.
Testing continues.
The extended analysis of the D+C work has now finished.
It has proven very worthwhile and I am very grateful to the encouragement from ScoobyDoo on that. It is likely that had he not written to me, I may never have thought through some of the ideas, particularly the loss game scenario, in such detail.
After all that work it is clear that there are a dozen good bets that can be derived.
I don't know but I suspect that there may be lots of cross over - what we call 'cross-pollination'
in design between all the matrix format bets.
What I am keen to explore now is one of those ideas that come to you in the twilight zone of waking- the extension of dozens and column play to three 12 number wheel sections, using some of the more radical ideas that have emerged out of the research like the 'loss' strategies.
This is something I have used before but in four sections to fit a 9 number module as part of another methodology I have used and developed, but which was taught to me originally by a brilliant Statistician from Europe. It has terrific power and a lot of fun visually.
What is very rewarding is the endless potential of creative ideas applied to a problem.
On this thread we explore a study of the wheel sections and street sections formulated to equate to dozens and columns play.
Format D+C matrix.
Streets
1 1-2-3
2 4
3 7
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3 and so on
Wheel section
I am going to bend a few rules and include zero to formulate a section of 13 numbers, then two other sections of 12 numbers.
1 Zero section 'A' section
numbers 7 through to 2 inclusive
2 my 'B' section
numbers 25 through to 10 inclusive
3 'C ' section
numbers 5 through to 29 inclusive
I will be running a few tests on these and then will look to abstract a further level bet which may, from time to time, have inside table betting opportunities.
So the wheel sections, streets, dozens and columns when in "loss" mode according to the position of the Ecart, may provide a matrix target on inside table betting if we manage 2 or more of these modes simultaneously.
More on this soon.
One step at a time here.
Core focus at the moment is to find the most appropriate bet that can swing and adapt to match the mode of the Ecart, either to 'win' or to 'lose' (reverse or switch bet).
Also to effectively measure the current phase of the Ecart.
Then to find whether we can flat bet or progress the bet in a suitable way.
At one tough polarity it may be that we have to work within +3/ -3 (points) parameters.
Not for gamblers.
Right now I am studying the D+C matrix method to extract short sessions where the above principle can be applied.
I expect to have sessions of +3/-3/+3/+2/+5/-3/+3/+4/+2/-3/+3/+3 and so on.
In essence what we are trying to do is simply to have more +3's than -3's.
Let's keep it simple and I will report results asap.
Recent results on D+C based on simple win macro play has actually been very successful.
A streak of + 49 winning games at the moment is unbeaten on 2 sessions.
You could call this 'lucky' but when the Ecart is securely in the mode where there is a dominant and settled win streak then this should be harvested. A win is a win!
Of course it is not always like that and really that is what some writers are trying to point out, and not to be overly negative, but more to caution.
Nevertheless when there is an opportunity it pays to accentuate the positives and to aggressively attack the wins. This is actually one way to successfully use 'short' cycles to your advantage. Use parlay or short steps to press your bet! I like steps of three.
As we have said many times key is to recognise what state the Ecart sits. I have mentioned the use of increment measurement of moving average. Again I use sets of three bets , triads.
Now here is an idea, one of many, but it is away to press your advantage should the mood of the Ecart be more in 'loss' mode.
There are other ways to measure. You could count the micro losses in the last 10 macro games, in 50, in 100 bets. All are useful and easy to do.
Should the phase be in more frequent losses here is an idea, and it is very valuable. I know many here wont even read this or apply it because they might think it too abstract. No matter. But it is a flat bet and it targets 'loss'. I wasn't going to publish this but I am convinced that it is just one of many many ways you individually can find and call your own.
It has taken me many hours of trial and error to tune and of course it wont always work. It will only work when the Ecart is in a key phase.
I hope everyone understands this principle. It is uses the idea of stepping in time to the beat of the game and the phase (key) of the game. Dance.
When you have assessed the session is not in a long win streak, then play for micro loss, but only one per macro bet! And stop at the loss. don't go on for a next step, ie keep the +2 profit, and don't dilute by -1 for the inevitable and more likely W. Remember there are twice as many W micro elements out there as L elements.
For example
W LW LW -1 +2 +2 = +3 you could close the session at this point! or...
LLW W LLW +2 -1 +2 = +3
W L W = 0
LW LLW LLLW = +6 ( max score)
Looks easy?
It takes a lot of patience, and profit comes in clusters, but on 250 games of D+C recently the overall result was +30 using this.
Other large samples can be smaller gain, and some may cancel out.
Idea here is that this is one method you can apply in short bursts, flat staking and possibly at higher unit value.
I emphasise it needs the session game to be in 'loss' mode.
You could set a sharp -3 stop loss if you are playing very short sessions.
The win streak macro on D+C has now gone on to +93 games.
You don't play 'loss' in such conditions.
The win streak on D+C went to 163 consecutive win games on 1-3-9.
The subsequent cycle went to an expected 26.
During those cycles there was little opportunity for 'loss ' strategy. However one for 'win' strategy has emerged and I will publish this idea soon.
While the dozens were streaking, the columns were not ( but I will publish an exact comparison soon on the approx 750 live spins concerned over the 11 sessions).
A loss strategy would have worked on the columns, and I will publish this idea here soon also. This is quite ingenious.
It is important to say that these two don't cancel each other out.
There have to be key triggers and loss stops like a short brake or leash.
More soon.
XXVV
On my recent 250 games of D+C in Latvia...
Dozens winning streaks 163 26 23 38+ unbeaten ( average 83 but small sample)
Columns more as expected outcomes - average 23 at present. Expectation is 26 of course for 1-3-9.
These contrast don't they in win streaks and frequency of losses. although of course micro losses can still be disguised and buried within macro wins because of the 1-3 -9 progression.
I have devised a 'loss' technique that can be applied to both sets of samples and to my earlier 500 game samples, ie so we can now say we have 1000 games tested.
I wasn't going to publish this but as only a handful of readers will find it here, understand it, or even bother to apply it, I am not really concerned. There are a whole family of bets that can be devised here with a little ingenuity and patience. What I am aiming for is a flat bet so the player can avoid the deadly trap of progressions and can quickly add value to the betting unit by compounding. It is not a bet for gamblers.
The Dozens and Columns had remarkably similar relative frequency outcomes with my method. There were in each case about 112 winning outcomes in a sample of about 250 games, ie about one concluded bet every 10 spins net say.
I will outline the bet tomorrow, with its triggers and stops, and suggested gentle steps.
It is not a progression but under key adverse circumstances the bet should be increased then reset at the first opportunity to its base level.
This one has a built in safety valve so that it can handle long win streaks. It just goes to sleep.
There is a simple variation which I will outline also and it is the one hit and stop method I was first going to outline.
So we could call the bets : D+C Loss Single and D+C Loss Multiple.
Ecart is the force to push Deviations - extremes.
Equilibre is the force that pulls Deviations back to the expected norm.
These two forces are constantly at war.
We can harvest the outcomes as long as there is movement in one direction or another until the Ecart pushes to the limit, the tipping point where Nature restores the balance or equilibrium.
I have found bets using the D+C as a good Matrix template, that can take advantage of win streaks and loss clusters.
Using D+C as a model and the 1-3-9 as the optimum progression with an expectation balance at 26 points, we have thoroughly tested this clever method for nearly 2000 games or approx 7500 spins.
This is really negligible in grand cycles but in statistically significant samples this is sufficient to read the 'ways' of the method, its user friendliness and propensity to streak.
The 163 win streak on Dozens was remarkable at 6 x expectation, but equivalent to a sleeper single number appearing at spin 222 which is no record, although genuinely extreme.
What seems notable is the phenomenon of multiple streaks, and just the fact that streaks at all consistently occur is very helpful to the professional.
Win streaks can be parlayed and can be aggressively stepped positively with confidence that 26 is the expected average.
Optimum parlay conditions may be three to five in a series, and frequently, when firmly in win streak mode, a series of one only bets will win. I have seen a dozen or more as single bet wins in a series.
So you know when to engage and step into such a parlay. You just have to allow for an occasional risk of blip such as a LLW on the third step of the parlay. Worst case scenario is never worse than a loss of the one bank.
Probably half the available time for selecting a bet and playing a bet is best served by playing for win streaks.
Conversely the other half for lose bets.
The Ecart is always in motion, swinging like a pendulum from one extreme to the other through the node of equilibrium.
Exit from win streaks is achieved when your goal is reached and if exceeded, then within 10% of the tipping point would be splendid.
There are ways to measure the moving averages and the proportion of win micro successes to loss micro success.
The wins are constant as every macro game has to end eventually on a win when the progression triumphs, either in the real world or in the virtual world.
The ratio for 50 games for example might be 25 loss micro events to 50 win micros. This is equilibrium.
Most of the time the balance is + or - either side of that and you can easily determine which way the current is moving.
Hence reading such cycles, you can determine when is best to start and stop.
Its not hard to do this but gamblers wouldn't bother.
This is so interesting if I only have time to re-read and to study it......
I have thought about this very carefully over the week and as this is a framework area, I have decided NOT to publish the full details of my hard won* bets.
* Many hundreds of hours go into my research and testing as this is my profession at this time.
What I am prepared to do is show the path that leads to the design of these bets. It is not difficult but is time consuming and I can genuinely state that dedicated effort will be rewarded and you will have the satisfaction of designing your own personal bet.
I will also publish within 48 hours a sample of my results from two types of bet - a win macro bet - and a loss micro bet. Then it is over to you.
Sounds like your signing off xxvv
your works very good it will take me a year to decode it but hopefully i'll get there
I think many must tread carefully in your threads
: )
This has been an extremely busy time and I think the momentum has really developed in the past couple of months, peaking these past few weeks.
Through an apparently random set of circumstances, events, actions, meetings and writings encountered, a way has been seen through, that, at this time anyway, is the culmination of several years research and development in roulette.
I am sure I don't have to tell you whats its like to experience the highs and lows that decorate our journey of discovery which really this wonderful game sets forth.
One day I will write a full description of the past 20 years and what a story - the characters that fill this life are very vivid.
I am sure you realise there is no one way. There are many many aspects of the game where we can benefit. I see the game as a vast mountain landscape and our goal is somewhere high, and possibly one of the summits. Its like flying over the alpine landscapes also where you see the snowline and the tracks and trails below that lead to some far off life.
To take one of those trails and find techniques that can carry you higher- that is enough , and is very satisfying after many previous false hopes or even betrayals.
The understanding that you can come to, at this stage anyway ( for there is no limit), can be expressed quite simply and when repeated often enough, it really does start to become part of 'the second nature'.
The tale involves more understanding of 'the true nature of roulette'.
With that in mind, the search for a consistent winning bet is changed. The approach needs to be able to be switched from time to time as the energies switch as part of the nature of things. Everything is in flux, and is moving to one cycle or other, at one or several levels.
By understanding the movement of the tides, the phases of the moon, the seasonal cycles, we can work with Nature and those forces that swing back and forth to build and destroy. It works on all scales.
With some understanding, some respect and humility, we can work with these cycles to benefit in working with the elements.
For those who suggest working with 'patterns' may be fantasy, there certainly is no fantasy in the forces that are positive and negative in Nature. We are not outside of this realm; in fact we are interwoven, even when sitting in the madness of a Vegas Casino at midnight.
Just so the forces of Ecart and Equilibre in roulette embody those natural rhythms.
It is part of our challenge to read these cycles and in so doing we can benefit and then positively re-distribute the proceeds.
We know by doing this faithfully we will attract more. That is another natural principle.
So lets get specific.
I am not going to publish any bets but I can show you from where to draw the material that will enable you to make your own which is by far the very best of worlds.
I am going to publish some results from two specific bets I have developed in order to illustrate the sort of return and conditional requirements you can look forward to. For those unhealthy sceptics who want it all in the hand, or on the plate, too bad.
Parlay bets are probably one of the mosts sensible and efficient means to achieve our goal of profit without undue risk exposure.
So when a method consistently produces lots of streaks ( at times when in a win cycle) then that is a great opportunity to take advantage.
When the cycle is over it is necessary to put the brakes on.
Continuous play on a negative expectation game is not a good idea.
When the cycle swings into the loss mode then another form of bet is necessary.
It is true what was stated by other writers on this. When the cycle swings and the win bet no longer works, then a reversal of the bet is the answer.
To be really clear about this, in the matrix bet series, and in particular in the very user friendly D+C method, there are long win streaks.
I have encountered 163 as my record to date.
During this time, yes, 163 macro games in a series without a macro loss playing 1-3-9.
Do you not think it possible to construct a parlay bet somewhere in there?
Likewise I have had results in D+C at the other extreme, very occasionally where heavy loss was in the air.
Recently in a columns game on the very first macro game there was a loss. The bet won, but on the fourth attempt, beyond the 1-3-9. Then, three macro games later another failure at the same level.
On a micro level the sequence went....
LLLW
LW
W
LLLW in the space of 11 bets there were 7 losses!
W
W
etc....
So at times like that given a certain trigger to set off the process, there can be a reversal bet or bets placed which will bring in fast return in a short space.
Then it is necessary to stop so you do not squander your gains.
So you have a trigger and stop. You will have to experiment trial and error to find the best variables.
I have done this but it has taken me hundreds of hours in the context of my testing.
I have offered you a short cut and the certainty that such sound opportunities exist.
Here are some results from my last two days of live real money play ...
Divide + Conquer
Dozens
Games Loss- Micro Loss Bet Parlay Bet Standard D+C Bet
50 +27 +138 +23
66 +37 +16 -15
Columns
50 +2 +210 +50
55 +26 +55 -26
Even within this small sample of results you can see the tidal swing by reading the net outcomes of the standard bet at the right.
Through triggers and stops I have engineered bets that when in hostile territory can mitigate losses but when in friendly home territory can accentuate the positives!
I hope this helps you. It is genuine and true. I will not be adding any further detail to this material. No PMs please.
Good Hunting
XXVV
Clue
Parlay 3-4-5
but only in a very specific and limited application and with the correct timing.
How is that timing arrived at....
By research and testing a whole range of triggers and stops for actually the reverse of the D+C bet and then applying that knowledge for both win and loss play.
However it is easier to parlay a 'loss' than a 'win' so you can adjust to suit your style.
There is plenty to work with there.
XXVV
For your information and to close the phase on published work for D+C
Overall test live play results
These are 'continuous' play results for D+C basic method, but the other results reflect tuning with start/ stop devices.
1800 games Running Loss Technique Parlay Win Method Basic D+C
+406 points +602 +315
Point value could be $1-$100 or more
The 1800 games was set as a reasonable monthly goal in 'full time' professional play.
Being a lover of symmetry I could not resist posting the D+C and D+C variation outcomes measured to 2000 games.
For a busy player that would be a month's work, based on say 4-5 hours play 5 days a week, on the basis of several shorter sessions per day, or variation of methods while at the table depending on the energy flows.
Interesting to note that the standard D+C bet played and measured continuously ( as a sort of measurement yardstick or base model) was hit by some negative re-tracement after so many earlier long streaks.
It is a remarkable fact of Nature that you cannot escape these corrective forces without self conscious application of 'counter- measures'. We talk about the Casino operating counter-measures, well we can too.
Basic D+C Bet
+ 224 points
The Parlay Bet as measured here is played generally continuously.
But in professional play there are a couple of modifications such as taking early profit consistently, and taking profit at or near peak within 10% target re-tracement tipping point.
+669 points
Lastly the Running Loss Method which thrives on corrective phases picked up momentum. Nevertheless it is a bet operational only after pre-set triggers and stops at key signals.
+ 442 points
This is a good conclusion because it illustrates the ebb and flow of the game in general, and the operation of both win and loss methods specifically.
This is a short update but is very important and it is designed to encourage any of you who are prepared to make the effort.
I am playing using D+C as my chosen matrix tool.
I am playing in what could be termed 'continuous' style. there is a reason for this.
In roulette there are of course cycles within cycles.
At the moment in the current 1000 spins context, D+C standard bets are actually losing ground. Clearly in the scheme of things this is corrective! But note the scale.
This is no problem because in that bet I am playing 'virtually' awaiting ( patiently) the right triggers.
On the other hand ( lol) the Loss Game is flourishing - reversal in this context works!
Try it.
BestXXVV
Have completed a fresh cycle of results using D+C.
When the Ecart is in positive win mode and stable or moving in the direction of Win, then the standard D+C bets will be continuing to net win, and there will be opportunities for parlay bets to exploit this, especially when there are relative simple single win (micro) bets to keep the progression at its simplest.
I have seen 15 in one straight sequence of these single win bets.
At the other extreme there are excellent opportunities for relatively continuous gain using a progression that runs attacking for loss bets (micro). Because of the strong risk to reward ratio for loss bets then it is more straightforward to progress.
These methods will work particularly well when the Ecart is in loss mode or heading in that direction, and even when the Ecart is positive, but progress will be slower and risk of the progression loss increases.
A parallel play on zero can be utilised and profits on such a play can be used to offset the occasional bank loss.
Such an approach requires patience , understanding of the forces at work in the game, and a plan of attack.
By my calculations this shows a 'continual' net advantage, or 'edge' to the bet, and in accordance with the true nature of roulette, as advised, profit can and should be taken in short cycles and in timing/ phase with given small edge which will vary in time.
My aim is to achieve a rate of return on average around +0.25 units per spin. On average each (macro) game of D+C takes 3.5 spins.
I believe this is a fair summary and is based on substantial research and testing.
What I may now do is to re-visit some other matrix methods, review in the light of this experience, and utilise their unique properties as well to increase the impact of our betting strategy.
This process may take a month or so but is the next exciting goal on the journey.
Best
XXVV
Reading the above I immediately thought of that ancient Chinese (supposedly) curse: 'May you live in interesting times."
Your journey is certainly giving you 'interesting times' that are, fortunately, more of a blessing than a curse.
Your hard work, skills and persistence have a lot to do with that, of course! ;)
These certainly are interesting times, and I feel a thousand times blessed!
Its not all the time of course, but a lot of the time, and it seems research has indicated it is in the nature of human consciousness to be naturally happy and optimistic. Should this not be the case, then something is wrong.
Nevertheless we live in challenging times but when isnt? We are becoming more aware now of all that some have tried to hide, and still they persist but knowledge is freedom.
Sometimes though it is all too much and I am reliably advised that in the Hospitals that deal with mental illness, the first recommendation is to restrict watching the television news. Apparently it can just tip the scales sometimes.
So back to 'bubble roulette' and I can heartily recommend a ' ..***.. the torpedoes' approach to loss bet attacks on D+C. Its only money!
My suggestion is a short progression with sensible stop-loss point.
You will note that when the stop-loss is triggered, soon after will follow a sequence of quick hits which can (partially) correct the stop-loss with a sensible 'twist' factor ( for example a double value bet (s), or a short parlay - but therein lies a subject for a volume on roulette technique and I haven't the time to give out that data, but its well worth looking into with caution though).
This will give good results I have found because of the risk to reward factor in reversing the D+C bet at key times ( could be always if you have the right checks and balances in place).
Happily XXVV
Here is a thought I have not published before and I know it works-sometimes much more intensely than others.
I tend to focus on the Loss Bets for D+C.
I usually play Dozens.
However if you play Dozens and Columns ( or even other extras) simultaneously and they are both in the Ecart of Loss, then you can simply target 8 inside straight up numbers.
This is a bet that varies in intensity so you can switch on and off.
Its not hard to monitor.
It has been an interesting diversion and research topic to look at Lucy's thread on the Whittacker Progression, under General Discussion.
Applying this methodology, or something akin to it is a wonderful adjunct to reverse bet play, and in many many sessions tested I haven't (yet)* lost a single unit thanks to that 'long' progression.
* in search of the 'yet' - quality of results depends on quality of the bet selection AND the timing of the bet ( in relation to the swing of the Ecart). My testing though has been on continuous play so simple.
I think we can take that a step further now in practical terms, and not just theory or idealism.
Sometimes it is expedient, pragmatic, to write off a small loss and re-set to step one, or end the session.
For example on the W Progression if a hit is achieved on the 7th or 8th attempt, then the net loss is only -4, or -5.
This can easily be mopped up in two or three successful hits on a new sequence.
Loss tends to attract loss so a sensible target of say +10 to +20 units could be accumulated and then you could exit without ever having to go into a detailed recovery procedure, although it is there if needed.
That's real smart play and the unit values can be higher.
Progressions have their uses, particularly if the selection of the bet is smart, rather than dumb.
However, better still, is the world of flat bets.
If the effect of zero can be neutralised, or mitigated, or enhanced ( controlled in some form) then the door is open to flat bets as long as the profit is taken when opportunity presents.
Simply play zero onward with an independent bank from your other play.
It is very very hard for the casino to beat a player who targets just one inside table number and rolls the experience from one session to the next, re-setting only when the zero is hit.
It is extraordinary how most misunderstand zero and of all the numbers on the table it is the only one that can elegantly and alone cover the outside table bets, rather than going to the messy complexities of other options.
It is so simple.
Going to do some studies on Zero and will be happy to post some of this in due course.
As usual, am trying 'the impossible' with managing an 'independent' bank for Zero that can occasionally interact with the 'independent' bank for outside table bets.
The way I work is to think aloud at times and share my view sometimes and encourage contributions on the open threads.
I will be adding some notes soon on 'reading' the game and in particular trying to measure that 'force' that varies in intensity which binds together numbers and can encourage repeats and clustering behaviour - a whirlpool within the random behaviour swirls.
Through careful measuring of results some useful statistical data can be assembled which will give you useful benchmarks for assessing performance of your bet.
More soon
I have found through practice and testing that we need to know inside out the characteristics of the bet we are using. It will have its unique character which will express in a range of parameters unlike any other bet.
If its a smart bet it will have a resonance point, a 'sweet spot', where it peaks in performance and results will range around that high point. Thus it may also have a weak point or weakness.
My current work involves, once knowing the bet well, and considering it worthy of extra effort, and measuring the returns and the nature of those returns, ie short cycle, bigger cycle, small, ie +5 units, or larger, say +100 units, then taking an overview. This involves looking at the start and stop of the bet.
The bet may be able to be pre-qualified. Because of the true nature of roulette, there will be times when the bet will be performing well below expectations. this is because the Ecart is running adverse.
At other times the signs will be good, and the 'virtual' testing and characteristics we like are all present and correct. Then we can start the live play.
Avoid the Gambler's Fallacy however that just because a bet is running negative that it will be 'due for correction'.
Instead you are seeking the signs of a consistent cycle, and not the reversal of a negative.
Also consider your exit strategies. Let the profits run and dont stop until you see clear evidence of the streak faltering- it may be 10,20,30% off its peak and that is relative to the duration of the accumulated profit run.
By applying these start and stop procedures, you will more than double your usual expected profits and may instead more than triple them.
Remember the saying from Macao - ' the winners play like frightened worms and the losers play like bold dragons'. Such psychology is music to the ears of Steve Wynn.
Reverse it!
While waiting for the mystical alignment of the the planets that signals the start of my campaign, the time remaining available has enabled me to overview several of the methods I use in live real casino play.
The relative value of 'time' is one of the keys.
There are several ways to fail in the casino, and one of the most frequent is misuse of time.
Whether through prior loss, or greed, or naivety, or other outside priorities, the lack of focus on the 'now' and the need to hurry are all potent contributors to potential catastrophic failure and loss of a bank.
When researching data we can process spins at many times faster than real live play. This can be dangerous when we go the real time live play because we have not been trained for the duration of real time sessions and the need for (sometimes extreme) patience.
On the plus side, the speed of research ( accelerated time) can allow for overviews not available to the usual patron at the wheel.
Just one such principle is the concept of 'moving average' which is an indirect way of measuring the Ecart when applied to clusters of spin data that may be games or subsets of games that can be measured.
What I have recently found is the amazing ability of such tools and such principles to cover several bets ( in my case say the D+C bets, and families of repeating numbers). They transcend and apply to lots of situations because in common the bets are all directed by the state of the Ecart.
By applying the measure of a moving average to say game duration ( say number of spins to close a game or number of 'targets' in a game that exceed the norm) or outcome it is possible to see the Ecart swing within the parameters you will have noted through your research. That is why you have to know the characteristics of your bets through massive research.
This is a real swing, and not a wish 'mirage' such as Gamblers Fallacy.
By applying this principle, and having mastery over time, yes you need to be a Time Lord just about to do this, then net profits can be multiplied through the use of patience and/or timing - that is knowing when to start and when to stop.
There will be times when some methods may remain dormant while being observed virtually, but when the signs are there and they can be eventually applied - in a sensible short cycle burst with realistic goals - then the net improvement in efficiency is stunning. Also to know when and how to let the profits run is essential for maximum efficiency.
That is why we need a catalogue of say half a dozen methods to apply when we arrive to seriously play and then it is a matter of our increasingly trained judgment when to apply what for the best results (within reason).
Food for thought.
Best XXVV
There are amazing opportunities to construct consistently profitable flat staking bets right under our noses. You just have to look in the right place. Its a matter of finding a thread, a link like a detective looking for clues.
I have been quite specific in assisting genuine research and you have to be clear, logical and self honest in your appraisals and evaluations.
Over the past 12 months I have found several ways and it has been achieved through focus and concentration on key areas, one at a time.
Those idiotic scammers have wasted a lot of people's time and money but one area they did provide good advice toward was in reversals. When a bet consistently fails, and if it can be reversed, there may be an opportunity for clusters of wins.
We have to understand that the Ecart/Equilibre forces are universal and its like the tide moving in and out with natural rhythm.
Timing our entry and exit is critical and there are some bets smarter than others.
The D+C matrix is an interesting case in point, and with care and focus, that bet can be reversed when appropriate. By selecting a smarter bet that is one that can be flat staked. Then profit is taken in short cycles.
The matrix methods have their uses for attack in short bursts.
You have to really know and understand your bets and it is through the study of live results that progress can be made.
Then you can turn your attention to the phenomenon of repeats. There are ways to trap small groups and that research is done through heuristics.
From that you can look at finales and repeats there.
Right under our noses and sometimes in the simplest forms there are gems waiting to be mined in serious and professional roulette play.
You don't need vague and long texts that drop hints that tantalise, or complex methods that add stress and require massive bankrolls for small occasional returns until the progression goes awry.
There are times to research, and there are times to dream, but there comes a phase where it is time to get real and make these ideas work.
So instead look specifically where I have suggested and do your research. That in the past 12 months I have found three areas of successful flat staked bets, suggests to me there are a lot more out there, and it requires a paradigm shift to see this.
A very good post XXVV.
II LIKELIKE ITIT!
Thanks my friend.
I am glad you understood what I was trying to say.
Very soon I have extended travel for the rest of the year but this has been an astonishing three months in work, research and results.
Best
XXVV
Nothing offends me more than a betrayal of trust.
When trust is built up over a period of time and then without warning ( or at least perceived warning) the rug is pulled, then it hurts.
That is what happened with the people involved in the W.3. M scam.
It still astonishes me and hurts me that so much confidence was placed in the words of wisdom that came out of 'Switzerland', or cloud cuckoo-land.
Fraudsters and confidence tricksters use our wishes as their target because they know cynically that what we really want will over ride wisdom, experience and common sense. In hindsight we should have known better perhaps.
Most upsetting of all to me was the vision and goal of using a percentage of group profits to assist ventures, seed capital funds, and communities, and help one another; an idealistic and Aquarian vision of mutual caring and respect, and then dumping it. It was all a pre meditated lie. Those responsible will be caught and they will be severely punished on many many levels.
Puzzling, yet part of that pre-meditated construction of trust was some comment and advice in principle which when threaded together was quite valuable when taken further.
The fraudsters could never have achieved their claimed skill in construction of winning bets, for with that knowledge, every day would be payday and there would be no need to steal 3million GBP from the public, for that was the cold irony of that title. Evidently they always intended the target and bag to be that sum.
Very sick and very sad black comedy indeed.
However there is always a silver lining to a cloud, and this is no cliche for it is a true life principle that intended evil intent will have ultimately positive outcomes, just as light always follows darkness.
Nothing is sadder than individuals ( and I have known some) who still attempt to believe the fraudsters will reveal all, or that their hints were deeply meaningful and that somehow by piecing the jigsaw of revelations the answers will all come clear and into focus.
We can be sure that will not happen.
The hints were often old, borrowed and blue, or childish, arrogant and circular.
However in spite of their inane suggestions there were principles below the surface that did have value, and here several can be listed. In order to make these work though it is work that is needed.
The trap was that everyone wanted easy answers. There are no easy answers unless you work backwards once you have reached various goal levels and then you wonder why others could not see the links and the connections and the paths.
The money management discussion was great and the pressing of bets was fine, but it was not original thought.
The reversal of a losing bet was a practical idea when it could be applied and illustrated some lateral thinking, but again it was not original.
Analysis of results was excellent advice but who would know that it would require at least 100,000 spins of live data to be robust. Who would be prepared to commit to such study?
Flat staking is first class professional advice but could they do it? Maybe in very small short cycles.
The so called PPPC Bet which is so simplistic ( as published here through one kind professional who was spat at by some Forum posters here - you know who you are - for his trouble ) enables small gains , but it is a grind. that's all they had.
The vaguest hint of all, noting something that should happen more often but did not, was about short cycle deviations, the swing of the Ecart, that differed from long term results.
The good news is that there are lots of bets that can be made to work - it just needs the effort , the focus, the will and the help of our subconscious minds, and more.
There has been much great work done on "Quantum Interaction" and "fuzzy logic". "Much of our thinking operates on a largely unconscious level where thought follows a less restrictive logic and forms lose associations between concepts."- refer New Scientist September 2011 - Your Quantum Mind. By pulling together these concepts mentioned above and trying them in various areas, progress will be made and I have specifically referred elsewhere to several that are worthy of further attention.
Quantum Physics and Hilbert Mathematics give insights into a reality at a certain scale that is very different to classical physics, classical logic, and tidy probablity theory expectations.
Over millions of years yes, but what of this year. What about a modest 1 in 10,000 year earthquake that completely transforms a landscape, or a city. Our civilisation is so young, even the explosions of a few thousands ago are clouded in myth yet on today's wired planet we would be in very big trouble.
Quantum thinking looks at context, looks at state vector, has its own logic and can provide answers where we previously had been told there were none.
I like the word 'transformation' and when data/ spin data is transformed ( just changed to another level of order or organisation) and we can talk about bets within bets, or layers of bets, then we are getting somewhere.
A moving average is one such overlay transformation and it can be applied in many ways to measure change, after being adapted from financial markets and trading.
Those fools in cuckoo land did not have that technical knowledge or any conscience, or anything that was really of any worth in isolation, and we need to leave them well behind, finally, in the dust.
Best
XXVV
Moving on, past the nonsense of 12 months ago it has all turned very differently from the scammer's attempts to bring a group of like minded individuals to play professional quality roulette. Then to move to other levels in an idealistic model which in his case will turn into a personal nightmare, but which is entirely achievable for those with clear intentions.
Because of that fraud it fired my attention to a 12 month quest for methodologies that work and also to work with other individuals who have a shared passion for roulette. How else could you become a professional? The time and energy and costs involved are so considerable.
That quest has now reached a very interesting stage and there are certainly several 'families' of bets that have been raked over and in several instances genuine worthwhile bets have been developed and in some cases are still being developed.
Always grateful to this Forum for maintaining a high level of quality and control, and with gratitude to its many participants, I would like to offer a worthy bet which is a part of one of the above mentioned families.
On this and other threads I have spoken of Finales and thanks to some participants for providing links to one of my friends to answer the question of definition of that French word in its plural form.
As we have found whenever you research a bet, you have to test results to observe the behaviour of the bet in a broad sample which is at least a statistically significant sample. At minimum you will need several thousand spins to sample test.
A robust sample would be +10,000 spins. You have to know and understand your bet.
This bet is very simple in appearance but can be tricky. However the parameters are known and I recommend that it be played with a progression and a suitable stop-loss for the extreme events.
Object is to have a finale appear for a third time in a session, and the play to trap that outcome is triggered by a second appearance of that finale. Before the eventual third appearance though there may be other finale groups ( e.g. if the target is 1, there may be other groups such as 7 or 0).
Testing has shown that in 50% of all winning outcomes, two finales may appear ( yes that's all!).
In fact in about 30% of outcomes only one finale appears before the win, given a suitable sample size.
In 75% of all winning outcomes three finales appear.
In 90% of all winning outcomes four finales appear.
Of the ten finales, the frequency of eight finales appearing before a win, seems to be 1 in 50 by heuristics.
So the scene is set for a series of short progressions and with a stop-loss suggested at say the appearance of (say)the sixth finale, then a steady accumulation of profit should be probable with the occasional correction as a kind of tax.
By trial and error you could set up an experiment, and even with tight parameters, say the appearance of a fourth or fifth finale, you could flat stake to reduce risk exposure.
The bet is simple, fast, and results in lengthy winning streaks of finales outcomes of less than five varieties.
If you are interested this will require great care and of course it's not quite as simple or easy as it appears but it is well worth the effort. The world of Finales is fascinating.
Good Hunting
XXVV
Dear XXVV
Couple of months before I was playing finales and I agree to you it is very fascinating. I was adding and dropping finales on my way one by one with the spinning. Adding and dropping means carrying finale upto next four spins to be hit and if not hit by then, then dropping it at the end of its length. A slow progression was used and each of the progression level was further subdivided nine times and the whole progression was carried out from finale to finale until a hit and then, only then was reset. I was pocketing casino consistently.
Your current research is fascinating and my eyes are glued to it for the improvement of my method. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
thanks
Catalyst
I too... find Finales fascinating. I'm very interested. ;)
The Finales are a remarkable set of opportunities. There are several ways of attacking them and they appear simple but caution is needed.
At this stage wrt the last bet suggestion I am taking care with large sample testing to assess the 'true' parameters. This is easier said than done of course (lol) because we really need about 10,000 spins worth! And as always our first samples tend to be optimistic ( more lol).
Will update soon. Thanks for the interest shown in this.
XXVV
Synchronicity is a remarkable phenomenon, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb may be correct in stating we are (presently) not good at dealing with randomness, but there are wonders abounding in this life which forever break previous (mis)understandings.
An example of this is the Nobel Prize for Chemistry this year going to an individual ( Daniel Shechtman in Israel for his work on quasicrystals) who was once publicly humiliated by Linus Pauling who said that there is no such thing as quasicrystals only quasi-scientists. Such bitchy behaviour from individuals who should know better no longer surprises me, and in fact we need to open our eyes to so-called experts.
The Nobel Prize was awarded for the work in crystallography-quasicrystals- where this man's efforts in the face of several decades of adversity and abuse showed that patterns are formed which are non repeating. This was previously believed impossible.
Such imagery was indeed observed by the brilliant Moslem culture of the Alhambrah Palace in Spain
many centuries ago. From that culture the first universities emerged.
Just so, through the writings of Ben Mezrich on the MIT Blackjack team(s) that hit Vegas, the notion of 'a running count' so useful in reading the BJ game, may be able to be applied to Roulette.
That's my theory anyway. I am certainly not going to publish that openly in the Forum where all and sundry, including our gracious B+M hosts, will eagerly absorb the information. Suffice to say that I have found several ways to monitor the ebb and flow of the game, the Ecart/ Equilibre ratios, and I have mentioned already several aspects of this theory where it can be applied to individual bets.
However it was the coming together of the writings of Taleb, and Mezrich and others that energised this quest.
Don't believe anything you read from so-called experts or the nay-sayers who like to comment from time to time in this Forum. They all have personal agendas, from insecurities to blinkers in thinking, to commercial vested interests
Me? I just like to believe anything is possible, and to side with Pascal who placed the safest bets.
Best
XXVV
XXVV,
Another great post, keep up the good work.
Thank you
I have been exploring the notion of the Running Count as applied to Roulette.
Have completed several large samples from live spin samples suitably formatted to deal with finales betting.
By applying a couple of overlays, and one in particular that is the toughest control, about 55 to 60% of potential bets are eliminated before play.
I record the overall mean averages of bet outcomes 'blind' and then compare the mean average outcomes on the bets actually made. There is a consistent effect that is worthwhile.
To give you some direction where to research ideas for these tools, look at moving averages applied to results over various spans. By trial and error test for the most appropriate impacts.
Given sufficient samples, ie greater than 100 game samples, then you will note the effect of efficiency.
If the 100 games were all above the cut off figure, ie the results were Ecart skewed in a corrective mode, then you might not have one qualifying game.
That has happened in some of my samples.
Of course that's a great result.
Generally with the Finales game in the format I play ( and there are several possibles) a game will average between 10 to 15 spins, with some games shorter and a few longer.
My goal is purely to improve bet efficiency and in so doing from time to time outcomes will be trapped which will exceed/ negate the house edge, and you will harvest short cycle profits.
Intrinsic to my work also and which is a theory I look to 'seamlessly' link results from sessions (which themselves are deliberately lengthy, ie +300 spins) in my 'personal universe' of results.
Good Hunting
XXVV
It might be useful to explore the notion of Running Count and then True Count, by transferring the ideas across from BJ.
Additional to moving averages might be a figure of + or - added to an ongoing total ( that commenced at zero balance) so as to show the relative skew or deviation in a passage of play.
Every bet will have its unique characteristics but all are influenced by these tides.
This is work in progress for me and am simply thinking aloud.
The moving average method though definitely does have merit, so at this time am just considering alternative ideas.
dear XXVV
the notion of of Running Count, True Count or moving averages provide a protective cocoon for a bet to be worth. your 'mathematical model' is the creation of 'justified time' in the length of 'justified spins' in which bet efficiency are materialized. in my testing of around 15 games( each 300 spins = 4500 spins) for the Carsch sector method, i have noticed the existenc of 'justified time' in which bets can be placed to tap the winnings through almost flat betting or extended slow progression. it could be coincidence as i have also experienced 300-spin-length is an ideal form for 'inside bet' to be materialized unless it is an 'EC Bet' in which profit realization could be tapped through higher value of unit and shorter spin length.
you have crystallized your various efforts in this forum to explain few things mentioned above -the fundamental concepts of roulette - as manifestations of a single underlying force 'time'.
your research is inspiring and assisting me to formulate my game.
thanks
catalyst
The use of BJ as a model from which to extend ideas to roulette is deliberately spurious as in BJ of course there is a gradual reduction in possible outcomes toward a much more likely set of scenarios which occasionally can tip or tilt the scales in favour of the player. Similarly poker.
Hence the BJ running count is a general guide by adding or subtracting factors in accordance with card outcomes being small or large and the true count being a further detail arrived at by observation of the decks remaining to be played. Fewer cards in the deck the more significant the count becomes.
There are casino counter measures to all of that but that was the general early basis used by the MIT team before they got into even more brilliant observation techniques to identify opportunities.
Roulette of course does not have a diminishing source and appears to start every spin with a clean slate.
However it is not as simple as that and there are threads of 'historical linkage' and some 'glue forces' at work that under certain circumstances appear to have an impact so that we can identify short term short cycle opportunities.
Certainly there are Ecart/ Equilibre cycles that swing to enable deviations from the expected norm and if we can read these natural phenomena then we can make progress.
Yes, it seems these cycles can resonate at certain durations and this is something we can look into.
The 37 variables suggest 37 spin cycles as one fundamental observation. The one third principle of outcomes ( the so called Law of the Third) is another. Thus multiples of 37 may have a bearing, and we can look at individual number outcomes and sleeper spin numbers but then you get into extreme events where you must take protection from random behaviour by a chosen stop loss to protect from the unthinkable.
Moving averages can apply to results on small or larger cycles, and probably medium as well. They all three have their uses. A method can be used to assign loading of scoring points for the various cycles. The medium scale may be the most practical. Trial and error for the appropriate time scale for these short, medium and long scales will be necessary and I do not claim to have the best solutions yet.
Every bet has unique characteristics but if you are working with a particular family of bets, say finales, and you come to know one member of the family of options quite well, then the characteristics of the bet can be measured and the outliers and mean average can be marked. Extreme deviations can be measured by heuristics, and this data can be so useful once a sufficient sample is taken. To be robust you may need 10,000 + spins.
Then another variable to add to the moving average or formula can be the measure of game durations, ie spin numbers required to trap a winning bet.
For one bet I use this variation moves between 3 and 17+.
High points can be given to all outcomes 10 or less, or better 7 or less.
The mean average is actually 10 over big samples so that is nicely symmetrical.
Its not always a symmetrical bell curve though with bet outcomes. Refer to Taleb's book on randomness.
It is sometimes the aberrations to the curve that can offer the opportunities and I have found some of these by long searching in other areas of roulette outcomes.
More soon.
As I will be away for a while now on business, here is a short summary of my position.
I have applied the moving average calculations and the average game spin duration to one of the Finales Bets that are available. There are several to choose from.
In order to dampen or reduce volatility however I play a target of a particular finale group after it has appeared twice, and then target a third appearance of that group. You have the choice to play this thread alone or as I do which is combine that finales group with other qualifying finales groups once they qualify prior to any one of the groups winning by way of a third appearance. Games can finish with between 1 and it seems up to 8 finales groups within my very large sampling. The average is just under 3.
Thus I give every game a number, I call this the MFB number which is multiple finales bet number.
This number can be recorded in a vertical result list and from this, moving averages can be calculated. This is an example of a transformation, a parallel set of data, and still easy to monitor live at the tables. But it requires patience.
The m/a variables I use are three games at a time or better, ten games at a time. This latter device seems to eliminate 55% or so of games when a sensible benchmark threshold for play is set. This is discovered by means of extensive testing.
Likewise game spin duration using same scales as above is a useful guide.
This is not complex but in testing is time consuming. You will find the application of this knowledge very effective.
I am sharing this much in order to encourage you. This discipline and its professional application live will eliminate more than 99.9% of all interested roulette players. Of this I am confident.
What has been very interesting (and rewarding) has been the way that Ecart ( Deviation) runs frequently in short-shortish cycles but usually not choppy. The scales of Deviation and Balance are formidable.
Thus, given patience and overview understanding, the timing to join a game and quit a game can be made that much more efficient.
This is so important.
Hence to summarise 12 months research and development work I respectfully suggest the following :
#1 Devote pure study time to this subject and your efforts will be rewarded. This is business, and
remarkably, is less fraught with random extremes than market business. Not many know this.
#2 Focus on two or three methods, bets, which you must test individually personally at least
50,000 spins, preferably 100,000 spins for robust samples, in order to understand the bet
characteristics. Use true live samples only. Avoid RNG. Use only smart* bets. Know your bet.
#3 Know the strengths and weaknesses/ vulnerability of the bets. Flat staking can lead to long
periods of sideways movement and then retracement unless you take steps to tune the bet
by means of taking realistic profit and avoiding loss cycles by Overview ( see later).
#4 Identify suitable short cycles of play for optimum results and time entry and exit with care.
#5 Apply an Overview to live play by means of a moving average monitor and establish a suitable
trigger for play. This will eliminate more than half of the spins viewed and improve your bet
efficiencies. The Overview will also indicate when to quit. You may attend a session and have
no qualifying live action. Smile at this and reward yourself!
#6 Flat stake where possible or short stop progression always with a backstop stop-loss point.
#7 Apply stern money management. Compound your returns and take out profit from time to
time, banking that profit independently so it can never be lost.
#8 Accentuate the positive sessions by letting profit run, and mitigate the negatives by stop loss.
#9 Know yourself.
#10 Keep sessions as short as possible for best results.
#11 Always take profit within 10-20% off peak.
#12 But even better, where possible finish a session on two consecutive wins thus finishing on an
all time session high. This makes a massive improvement in your net efficiency.
#13 Respect Madame Roulette and never become complacent or over-confident. She can be a
jealous mistress.
#14 Donate at least 10%, preferably 33% of net winnings to worthy causes about which you can
really become passionate and care. This will fire your motivation professionally and will provide
powerful positive suggestions for your professional play and will attract good fortune.
#15 Control your emotions at the tables.
#16 Train to remain in peak condition on all levels as any successful professional athlete.
#17 Maintain balance in all you do and enhance your sense of humour. Dont be too hard on
yourself when things go wrong ( as they will sometimes). Use the PGA Pro Golfers as role
models.
#18 Maintain the understanding that 'the true nature of Roulette' enables short cycles of small
profit. Adjust unit values and money management accordingly.
* a smart bet is a bet that is simple, forgiving and shows a regular high return: expenditure ratio.
O Fortuna!
XXVV
While on the road a short series of updates on my laptop, so please excuse any typos.
The above series of principles is a great checklist and through live experience I can add afew more :
1. Patience. Patience. Patience.
2. When arriving at the casino I now spend about 20-30 mins sitting near the live wheel and record genuine early data and ongoing spins. I then measure the context and fluency of my key bets by testing their performance, ie measuring the Ecart status.
3.This will usually show what method is currently preferred. If none, move to another table.
4.The casino does not object to any of this and you may even be offered free coffee while you study the data.
5. Then on the basis of a pre set target you go for a 3-4% postive return on your Risk Bank.
6. Three sessions of about an hour every day should enable a 10% return but there will be occasional setbacks, ie stop loss sessions. The context overview is designed to mitigate this risk.
Good Fortune.
XXVV
Experimental Verification
Context Overview is of course another way of saying 'reading the trends', or 'state of the Ecart'.
By measuring say 20-30 spins you can do this by applying 'smart bets' and given a green signal, proceed and attack for say 2-3 consecutive wins, then pause and take your profit.
XXVV
A VERY Impressive Topic this is! Clear, Interesting Informative reflections and theorys. All free from unnecessary rambling.
Very Good! Thank You
/M
Thank you for your comment.
As I am on an extensive live play campaign access to longer term keyboard facilities can be limited, and my laptop is sometimes too restrictive for lengthier communication.
However today I am catching up with some written work so just wanted to add a couple of live play observations.
Always aim to end your working day at the casino ( whatever hour of the day or night) with a win, and prefereably the entire day to be a net postive result. Sounds simple but it is very important after all the bio chemistry and energy of the day to feel good and dream/ sleep well after the action.
Always it is your choice to stay or leave.
Thus select a departure time just after a suitable win.
This makes a huge difference to your confidence and game plan.
Professional play is defintely patience to the n'th degree as timing is so important.
On several occasions on a losing sequence I have stayed too long and thus necessitated a table change and some hard work to correct the damage.
Try to avoid too much volatility.
It is easier to have say 5 short mini sessions in a day at +100 units each than have one session achieving +500, especually if your RB is say (only) 300 units.
Or ten mini sessions at +50 is much more achievable.
Key is avoid the mesmerising focus of a slow decline. Better to cut and run and re-start.
The methods I am using are as detailed in various threads here such as MFB or D+C ( reverse bet). I use also some methods based on warming numbers and re-awakened sleepers, and also 'hunting zero' ( or zero section.
On all these methods I try to use where possible an overview which measures the Ecart status, so as to choose to join or not the game being observed. In a small boutique casino tehre are not always multiple tables to select from so you need to make sensible compromises sometimes.
Best advice though is to always finish the session on a win. And most of all end the day on a winning session.
Best
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 17, 05:24 PM 2011
to choose to join or not
Einstein couldn't have said it better .....
Thanks for all your hard work.
Through recent play experiences I have made some additional notes.
These are designed to re-programme my own behaviour and to improve performance. It is not easy in truth but by repetition and positive efforts on all levels we can improve and change.
These notes will be added soon and I think we will all find them useful.
Best
XXVV
Greetings
Daily live play has been both a delight and a test. Have been seeking application of the most efficient 'commercial bets'. There have been good results and also some poorer than expected results which I put down to procedural and management failure on my part. There has been perceived need for significant improvement.
Inspirational has been patient reading and application of John Patrick's ideas as expressed in 'Advanced Roulette'.
Setting aside his writing style, and looking beyond that, there are massive professional guides and inspirational passages.
There are smarter bets we can select but the management aspect of it all is critical, and it is telling to hear of his Vegas professional colleagues who themselves had to curb their enthusiasm and energies to focus on one game at a time and one application at a time, always starting conservatively.
What I now do is always apply the following principles and I acknowledge JP for some of this important advice.
1. Consider the available Risk Bank and divide it into at least three session banks.
2. If you have less than 300 units dont even bother starting.
3. Never use resources that are needed elsewhere where your emotional energies might be diverted and almost certain loss will follow.
4. Calculate a sensible percentage win goal on your session bank. 10-20% gain per session is fine.
5. Not all sessions will win, so start slowly when the trend you are following is targetted.
6. Should the session start failing quit at the loss of no more than 50% of the session bank.
7. If you make an early gain, however modest, consolidate that gain and dont leave a loser.
8. JP has his up and pull money management method which is smart.
9. By running say 3 sessions per day you may be able to gain a net +5% on your RB daily.
10. Such returns compound into awesome power and after 7 winning sessions I always disburse the proceeds into thirds. One for debt, one for RB growth, and one as gifts.
11. Before sitting at the table first measure the game at a distance with recording of data. The Casino encourages this and supplies card and pens. When you find trends, attack them.
12. Should there be no perceived trend you see, then wait or move on. Never sit at a table and commence betting without due care. If you do you will be down 100 units before you know what hit you.
You may well have read all these principles before, in various styles and by various authors. Believe me, once you really care, and you apply yourself using such principles, you will be astonished at the difference in your net results and improved efficiencies.
Necessity they say is indeed the mother of invention, and when it comes to professional play, your very well -being and survival depends on such care and professional exactness.
You will still encounter tough passages and runs of losses, but the trick is to keep the losses small.
Expand and grow your stakes only on previous gains, and build on your own inevitable winning streaks. They will come and in due course your new confidence will attract them as a magnetic force.
But never become complacent, or greedy.
Work the percentages.
A 20% gain may give you a +10 unit gain. But you can feel grand on this result, or even a nil return, which I still count as a win, as you have avoided loss.
I stop at three sessions usually now, because it may have been hard work and tiredness may not register but your mental efficiency may be down. How many professional athletes race more than three sessions, even the decathletes pace themselves over several days. They are the world's best.
The pro golfers do just one round per day.
View yourself on so many levels and from so many viewpoints. Be kind to yourself. If you slip dont beat yourself up, but just pick yourself up and start again. Remember the advice given to and from the world's best entrepreneurs.
Remember also, the Casino is a 'fixed market' in that the variables are known and defined, although random. This is a safer market than the financial markets which are also random but which may face the unexpected - daily, and where there may be no limits to loss. Observe the financial markets in coming months. There will be examples that illustrate this point.
Refer to Nassim Taleb's magnificent book. Dont you be fooled by randomness. This is a subject full of smoke, mirrors, and empty rhetoric. By comparison your Casino may be viewed as a relatively safer haven. Just dont get sucked in. Develop and maintain your skills.
Best
XXVV
There are further notes to add, and I certainly want to emphasise that just because I write with specific ideals and suggested behaviour, that I still make mistakes, and sometimes quite silly errors.
We can so easily be caught off guard or the old enemy complacency and over confidence will trap us.
In recent days I have been testing various methods and this can lead to error. In several sessions I have denied the opportunity to take an early and easy profit and in so doing have signalled to my sub consciousness that I want to push the limits, and risk loss, or worse actually want loss!
Time and time again refer to JP advice and take sensible profit when offered. That may be 10-20% of your session RB. If you fail to do this you may well lose. I believe this to be the most important principle of self management.
I do limit what I carry in cash, but seriously do suggest you transfer profits from your pocket to a third party or have the casino issue a CPV ( chip purchase voucher) as a receipt of cash they will hold for you sometimes for days or weeks. I now limit my carrying wallet to 600 units.
I suggest bringing no more than 10% of your total RB resources to the casino, and that itself can be divided into say three session banks.
Here also are some encouraging results from 7000 live spins I have played or witnessed while on this live play tour, nearly 3 months.
Flat staking the reverse ( loss bet) version of the D+C bet and with cover for zero...
+268 units
Playing a 7 step short progression with a 21 unit RB....
+384 units
This is without an overview, or selective choice of session, just straight in. results would be improved by selection.
This is a big picture approach and over the past 2000 spins there was a correction and then re-growth. It is not a steady climb but overall is encouraging.
I am searching for the best commercial bets.
Sometimes the above approach will work better than others. as always try to shut down the losing streaks and play at minimum stake until a winning streak where you can raise unit value.
The above results do not incorporate such discretion and that is why there was a long 1500 spin correction between 5000 and 6500 spins. Re-tracement was about 30%.
Hope this helps. More soon.
XXVV
Two notes to add.
The recent results by JL on the use of the standard D+C demonstrates that there are winning cycles in both ways the method can be played. These results can be enhanced by timing of entry and exit.
I find the reversed bet however smarter in application because of higher win to cost ratio.
Also yesterday in live play I observed how you can turn a disadvantage into a short trend massive opportunity. One of my techniques to target a particular street ( one in four, ie 3 streets) was blocked and was clearly not going to work until one trigger finally operated. in the meantime a series of repeating six lines were operational and numbers like 17,18,7,28,29.9.20,31 were repeating.
In 7 spins I made a 300% return on RB using this short trend, which soon corrected.
This could be played with high value units. You don't need to stay around for long games but you do need to be alert and responsive and get out once the trend has finished or your goal is achieved.
Short Trends
We can refer to this again and again. With a raft of techniques that you have become familiar with and have tested so you know the bet characteristics, strengths and weaknesses, and the general rate of earning (potential), when you observe a spread of say 15-20 prior spins before you start to play, then you can assess the priorities. Which bets are working and which are blocked.
You can go with the flow and if a technique is on a streak then climb on, but dont overstay. Go in only after pre-selection of a win goal, and dont permit a re-trace to erase your gains. Better to leave +1 than walking away discouraged -20.
Conversely, when a method is blocked, this also presents an opportunity by reversing your approach or identifying the blocking characteristics, and attacking these for a short term trend.
At the end of the year I will publish the 10,000 live spin results from this tour on a few different methods for comparison.
When I say short trends, I mean short. These can be 3 spins or more once the characteristic has been noted. I often find it unlikely that the trend will abruptly end as asoon as you are on board. This would be the fear of amateurs. But in lengthy observations and practical play you can haul in short term profit as long as you cease as soon as your profit goal is achieved or the pattern breaks up.
Updating the live spin results on the reverse D+C at 7400 live spins, the uptrend has reverted to strong climb.
I will set out the full result at 10,000 but I have graphed the progress and that helps. The correction phase lasted from 500 to 750 spins ( thats about 10 consecutive sessions) and hit the step 7 hardest of course, but both flat and step 7 stuttered. There seems to be two rates of climb - steep and mild, then there is correction and for flat a horizontal phase. As i emphasise these results would be mitigated in correction by 'overview' and using discrimination when to stop especially. If 5 consecutive losses when you climb on that is a sure sign the tide is out, but as today on columns if you get hit,hit,hit,hit and then a sequence os 2,3 and 1 outcomes in a 70 spin sequence before it cooled off that is a great result.
Flat + 296 * Step7 +444*
* indicates all time high
Once again I want to emphasise the fine work promoted by John Patrick (JP) in his Advanced Roulette, particularly with regard to Money Management.
It seems so many may have appropriated his ideas without due credit, and I include in that the words of Charles Scammer with his 'left pocket' strategy.
The concept of Guarantees and Excess being added to the Win Target allocations and the continual yet conservative allocation of these resources based on a conservative and achievable 20% return on RB is a brilliant strategy.
I refer you to the text for detail but to incorporate these techniques into your play will make the difference between being an Amateur and a Professional.
There are many many play techniques that can be used to win. Sure some bets are smarter than others, and yes there may be some bets that overall have a winning edge, given suitable 'overview' discretion for entry and exit. I certainly have found some of these but even with a 5% or more net edge you will still lose occasionally with Ecart swing. In many cases it is the exit timing which is the most importan factor. It may be after one spin, or a hundred.
What I seem to be finding is that despite our quests for methods, and I have spent over 20 years on that Quest, it is in the management and of course the self management, that will determine whether you win more than you lose.
And if its the case that you are a net loser, then stop right now and totally re-construct your entire approach. Thats the workshop.
It is evident we will not eventually learn to win every session, because we are dealing with Random Reality, albeit in a controlled range in the casino, but if we mitigate the losses and enhance the gains, then that is professional play which can always be tuned upward for improvement. there is no limit!
You get to the stage where there is a healthy balance of reality check and self knowledge, and you can enjoy play and never need to emotionally over-react to any outcome. As they say its par for the course.
Looking forward to that happy day and realisation. Just over the next hill......
Recent observations with live play illustrate the beauty and the wonder of randomness which is so misunderstood or not even glimpsed by most.
Patterns emerge as short traces and then break up, fragment, like the traces of the sub atomic particles seen momentarily in the records of the vast and powerful accelerators used in particle physics research.
Some particles are in that twilight realm of materialisation and non material activity.
Just so the short term patterns/ trends we can make out in the number outcomes in roulette are marvellous and show what it is like to be on the threshold of exciting research.
This note is also to wish all readers a magnificent Solstice, whether in the southern or northern hemispheres. This is a powerful time.
Best XXVV.
Further to the understanding, or lack thereof, of randomness.
Where I am located we have just experienced a 'cluster' of 'aftershock' earthquakes.
Prior to this there had been no major action for past 3-6 months.
The experts ( who admit they know little in this field of prediction of EQ) stated prior to this we had a diminishing 10% probability of an EQ of M6.0 or greater.
This just happened.
Cold comfort that the probabilities have all been re-distributed.
The neat spread of 5 big EQ's on yet another fault only just discovered, and worryingly, just off the coast, produced a formidable cluster. Horrible to experience but an example of randomness in Nature.
It is easy to be wise after the event.
Reminds me of roulette.
Also during 'the experience' it is difficult to be sure that the diminishing power of these events is to be accurate and believed. Also the real power actually experienced actually depends on location, proximity and depth of the event. At the time you wonder if the building will come down around you.
When you go and lie on the grass/ the earth after such an event(s) you can feel the earth quivering in constant action.
It is truly awesome in the real sense of the word.
We know little of randomness.
The goal that is now shaping for 2012 in the world of roulette for me is to determine what is the most effective, the most efficient bet, the most commercial bet in the calculating cold objective professional way that 'professional' apparently implies.
This choice has really been brought home to me when I review the catalogue, the arsenal of methods collected and developed.
There have been some tough lessons in 2011.
However for those tests and trials I am grateful because it has made me question everything.
At this stage the answer appears to be directing toward the reverse bet, the reverse of the D+C, when it is applied to either dozens or columns or both, and with the added bonus ( and complication) of playing zero with an additional RB.
Reasons for this choice :
The bet is simple and fast to calculate and place.
The bet has a positive return in that a win earns +2 and a loss only -1.
RB need be small if played flat or 7 steps or WP*
* Whittacker progression ( how to never lose, at least approximately anyway)
Bet appears to have a positive edge**
** Recent 3 month play has provided + 9000 spins witnessed or played
Flat staking result +360 units and 7 step result +560 and both at all time high results in a steady climb with only minor retracements.
Flat RB suggest 100 units
7 Step RB suggest 100 units ( individual RB is 21 units)
There may be periods of pause or retracement but also periodically profits will shoot forward.
Suggests to me reason for the edge is two fold :
Incorporation of Zero into play to reduce length of losing streaks
Independent of this the results would still show positive growth but slower, and this is positive because it is a reversal of a method that although clever, is a losing method, ie the D+C. Simply by reversing this you win but only in the long term. There will be short aberrations in both directions which may confuse you and otherwise raise false hope. I have tested over 50,000 spins to arrive at my realisation over the past 9 months and this is a robust sample.
The reverse bet is forgiving as it quickly repairs human error of judgement, ie mistakes.
By covering 12 inside numbers as a whole it is less specific, ie more generic, than the clever bets that target individual or smaller groups of numbers.
Most importantly, the more specific you target, the more vulnerable you may be to randomness.
Thus in the generic sense the bet is also forgiving. It is a smart bet.
It is an even smarter bet when you incorporate context and more carefully select your entry and exit points, that is if you even choose to enter at all.
10% of all games, ie session starts, are best avoided.
Overall the bet performance can be improved by +30% above the rate of return quoted above by applying the XX, YY and ZZ notations and overviews my threads have noted or hinted at. They are not so mysterious, just various degrees of measurement of moving averages based on immediate context results of the current tested session whether virtual or actual.
There we are, its only December 27 ( here anyway), and I have answered next year's question. That is why I like to contribute to this Forum. Its an opportunity to think clearly and write concisely and to share some worthwhile information.
Overlay and apply the Money Management and Self Management disciplines recently introduced (thankyou JP) and you have a formidable approach to 2012.
Have a very enjoyable, happy and most importantly, a very prosperous New Year.
Best XXVV
Best 2012 to all readers.
Here is the summary for the Reverse Bet D+C ( including zero cover) played over past 3 months live.
The results are set out step by step also.
RB for flat and for step 7 short stop progression suggest at least 200 units for each ( 21 RB for step 7 and thus this covers about 10 banks). Very conservative.
All play has been 'steamroller' and just keep going with no overview or discretion as to stop or start. Had such been applied results would be improved by 30-50%.
Flat Step 7
1000 +25 +40
2000 +115 +192
3000 +146 +283
4000 +176 +348
5000 +226 +396
6000 +224 +364
7000 +268 +384
8000 +345 +532
9000 +355 +565
10000 +361 +670
Note in both cases that there were phases of about 2000 spins where progress was halted and re-traced a little. That is the nature of flat staking or relatively flat staking. Hence the conservative multiple RB.
By applying Whittacker Progression there was no phase which was unplayable and the zero spread prevented long devastating streaks of loss. The longest out phase was a modest 14 on one game and it was followed by several 1 games to enable clearance.
More challenging was one game where there were a few 9 and 7 games in a short cluster but even those soon cleared by being patient and even a lumpy progression approach would have mitigated damage.
Real challenge is handling 2000 spins, ie say 20 sessions where there was no progress or even a backward fall. That would stall most players and if you started like that it would be discouraging.
Hence apply 'overview' XX and YY moving averages for extra security.
I will write soon on a more commercial approach to professional play and the way I am managing to handle this. Ideas and concepts at this stage but I can only continue to praise the writings of John Patrick and even the application of his 'simple' methods, given wise management that he applies to money, and most importantly self.
Best for the New Year.
XXVV
Best wishes to you as well . . . and thank you for your informative and well written topics.
I have had more fun running down the paths of enlightenment that you have shown in several of your posts, such as, finales, short term trends, reverse betting, moving averages etc.
What I like is that you have given us some tools to grow our own food rather than just hand us a loaf of bread.
Looking forward to your posts in 2012.
Nick
Thanks Nick
Recent experiments I have had with hybrid bets have shown mixed results. Trying to do too much and be too clever can be a trap.
One criterion that is essential in live professional play is simplicity.
The method I have referred to above is a reversal of a clever bet devised by Scooby Doo.
I like the simplicity of his method and it churns out fast data on both dozens and columns if desired.
Of course each is equivalent. It is a fallacy that any EC or column/ dozen bet is more favourable than any other. Such thoughts are based on too little data in analysis. Of course in the short term as in any trend, there will be a bias, but long term the results of RB, OE, HL or Doz and Col will be equivalent in performance .
The cols or doz selections when reversed make the bet a smarter (better than clever) bet as it is paying better returns in relation to risk and then if you apply an overview and exercise patience and discrimination, then this bet will show you better returns than the financial markets.
More on this later, but also note that it is also a forgiving bet allowing occasional human error without catastrophic results, and it is not number specific so also is forgiving in its general clustering of 12 numbers as targets.
When you decide to play seriously bring sufficient resources and rather than being tempted to wander because of relatively slow returns, make the unit value higher, or at least if starting low ( smart) build up the unit value step by step asap.
Best
XXVV
The hybrid bet I referred to is an interesting combination of several methods using finales, repeat numbers and repeating finales.
When first devised I thought it clever because it really played for an ultimate "coup" on average every 20-25 spins or so, sometimes less, sometimes more, and in the interim produced (often but not always) lots of mini coups, thus producing cashflow and reducing exposure.
Nice in theory but I have found that it might go fine for sessions and then occasionally an errant and delayed coup would be without prior cash hits so the RB required was 500 units plus. This is counter productive because it also entails progression when needed.
The WP applied to the dozens or columns though is an easier approach.
JP put it so well that what we seek is to start with a minimum outlay and climb onto a short term trend and then accelerate staking within reason while the streak continues. If it goes wrong we get off quickly also.
This is the simplicity we need because there are many variables in this game when we factor in the frailties of our human nature.
Lets be realistic and if we were a market trader and they have certain characteristics which are not necessarily professional with randomness and luck factoring heavily very often then we would be not so concerned with 'human nature' and frailties. In their environment it is full on and with a lot of technical support, often weighing up potential loss in a trade.
In roulette it is up to the individual to be tested alone.
Heed the truth told by JP at the end of his book.
It is not an easy path at all, but with practice and patience our average performance will gradually improve. But dont be too hard on yourself. It s a tough game.
Best
XXVV
Over the coming weeks I will explore some successful commercial bets which combine simplicity with smarter qualities, and still provide the satisfaction of significant coups.
It is a matter of reading the game, patience, and timing.
Also I must emphasise, in order to arrive at some of these realisations I have had to make a lot of earlier mistakes.
In my view we are on this journey together and I will share some insights, in principle but also with some specifics, so as in helping myself I am helping others and vice versa.
The essence of all of this you will find boils down to some key ingredients. That recipe is what we are working toward. Then its practice, practice, practice!
Best
XXVV
As promised I am going to provide some information on my current campaign live professional play. Being located close to a brilliant local boutique casino I play every day.
I will share some methods in general terms ( detail will be left to the reader to design) and will report on success and failure.
As a general overview strategy I am dividing my attack into two broad policies : one is to use the reverse bet as described from D+C and apply it strictly and following the advice from JP keep base units minimum and attack short term trends. The RB is small but in 10 reserve parcels. Goal is to compound session RB daily by 10% on average. An overview using YY moving average will provide a useful radar for when to enter and exit. Session goal will also cut in. Even with a definitive edge in our favour there will still be losses and the impact of these has to be mitigated and the successes celebrated and enhanced.
The other attack is a more discretionary RB for several excellent methods that are in the arsenal and which from time to time will shine out as appropriate to call upon.
At this stage the two funds are equal and as a weird little game within a game they will compete with one another. One team will be red, the other pale blue. One has a local Manager, the other, an Italian import.
At the end of the month progress will be reported.
It may be a case of the tortoise and the hare but we shall see, and adjustments will be made after 2 weeks and review.
Last but not least I want to thank Mr J for his blog. It is great to hear about real live play success.
As an aside, one definition of professionalism is 'success' in a chosen field.
That means making more money than you lose. In other words you derive an income that is postive, ie in the black.
If that were not so you would be indulging in self delusion, whether tax loss or otherwise.
The entire point of professionalism is to raise your game, and endeavour to achieve new highs in performance. ( If you were not a 'success' within a reasonable period of time you would direct your efforts in another field of endeavour.)
There will be challenges, setbacks and frustrations, but the goal is to achieve profit and then build on that with focus, determination and realistic self analysis, together with game analysis and review to reach ever new levels of skill and achievement.
In roulette the contest is forever with yourself ( your relative self knowledge) and reaching levels of consistency that gradually improve. There is no reason why this cannot be achieved and so the fascinating challenge of roulette for the individual.
As I have recently paraphrased it is clear we are relatively flawed in our biased judgments and often false optimism. Nevertheless, with expansive study of random behaviour, and lots of practice, and good will, and huge preparation effort, we can progress as a 'young' professional and move forward. An attitude of wise and understanding overview of our behaviour, even if at times with ironic humour, will assist. It helps to have some peer review as well.
So, in spite of the difficulties, we do our research work. We make plans. We practice and then we take our steps. It is a microcosm of much in life but has the advantage of working with narrower constraints and range of variables.
Next week I will report on some of the success ( with explanation) and some of the failures ( and reasons why) in the casino playing roulette.
XXVV,
Thank you for your very infomative posts,
Looking forward to the next.
Cheers Pedro
I think once you have seen enough then its fairly simple. I dont think it is so hard to develop a winning bet, but if I count the hours invested to date it would be +20,000, well over the 5-10 years we are told is a requirement for any professional in any field.
It comes to the stage where I have several, and they are in groups.
The influence and hints from others who are very clever in their research also gets compacted into this moving snowball of experience of knowledge.
Then it is the money acquisition for risk capital and at the same time and preferably prior, the self management.
I remember a building where I learned so much , and above the proscenium arch was written :
"Know Thyself".
That is the essence of making any progress in any walk of life, not the least being professional play in roulette.
This requires massive trial and error experience and application.
Weave in the research of Daniel Kahneman and thus maintain a perpetual humility in your work for the instruments by which you have made your progress may be periodically distorted or flawed and all realisations must be tested and peer reviewed. Even then they may not be laws, but just glimpses into the mists.
Beware anyone who speaks with certainty about anything. Their reasons and reasoning may well be flawed.
Question everything.
Nevertheless, heuristics will give you the answers. If it works it works but set sensible parameters to trap and catch the hard won profit and dont throw it away again. The casinos with their game constants can be our allies.
I will set out these winning groups soon and give some specific examples. Why not.
Then the silly philosophical debates elsewhere can be seen as just so much mush.
There will come a time soon when there will be no need to write any more because all that needs to be said has nearly been said.
Then its up to you to make it work for you, to the degree, and the terms that you choose and tune.
The fancy parameters of how you distribute the profit can then be a luxury you may well reflect upon.
As the rich get much richer and most others just gradually slide back relatively, then it is time to be pro-active and generate and assemble your own wealth making machine to be fired up at will and wherever you deem suitable.
Thats where I am heading as soon as possible now after reading the latest research on wealth distribution in our brave new world and especially what is happening to world cities such as London.
More soon and its an exciting challenge about to begiin in 2012.
I like reading it too xxvv
Discipline can divide winners from losers.
I still fail at times to leave at the height of my session even though i know when that is .
As the 600th post is drawing near and passed it will be time to then take a break.
At this time there has been a fantastic surge in roulette knowledge and understanding and I am about to embark on a 3 month phase of 'the business of roulette' where commercial application of smart bets will be applied for a very aggressive return goal.
Parallel with my roulette work are other professional responsibilities but these are strange times not only locally ( very strange) but also internationally. In the US the ratio of super rich to the rest has not been so extreme since 1928. Then look what followed.
Likewise in London, the city is a money magnet, which can have indirect benefits but the super rich are just getting so much richer and the rest.... well they are vulnerable and becoming frustrated. What will happen next. Well as we are dealing with Uncertainty, the arts and science of roulette may be a good vehicle to apply.
Cash flow is now paramount but may soon be evermore paramount.
The method for such 'freedom' is available within the business of roulette.
Here are some characteristics of a suitable smart bet to apply commercially :
simplicity
reliability
forgiveness
high return in relation to expense
short cycle
proven commercial edge over a robust set of live data samples
small outlay
ability to leverage the bet return by means of compounding and/ or parlay
Then when applying commercial play :
maintain one primary technique
do not experiment or wander from your goal target method
pre-set win goal per session
set stop loss levels which are conservative
operate with substantial and multiple located risk banks, separated in space and time ( ie with 24 hour auto delay access and differeing locations).
know thyself.
With application of this approach you will enable postive cashflow which can be geared.
Should you wish to explore further or exchange / develop ideas either PM me or you can contact me by private personal email
palladioxxvv@yahoo.com
Best XXVV
If you refer to the other threads you may see that I have been through a period of extra testing ( on all levels!!)
An outcome so as to set a realistic goal is to state that on the reverse bet I have found the most efficient place to quit is after 3 consecutive wins. After analysis of a statistically sound sample size I have found that at 3.27 bets is the mean of the distribution data.
Thus to quit at a short mini session to gain +5 units is very smart.
Then re-set and start when you wish.
Much play may be 'virtual'.
You go live at key signals based on massive test prior experience, knowing the bet characteristics.
Once you have a roughly b/ even bet, then start tuning the variables.
Best
XXVV
In finales betting there are several options.
The simplest I call SFB and is simply the first repeat finale.
Flat stake and find by your own trial and error the best stoploss point and you will find a winning bet.
This can be further enhanced by recording a string of bet number outcomes and formulate a suitable over view by moving average or some such.
Do enough testing to find and know the fairly volatile bet characteristic then enter and exit with hit and run speed..
Good Hunting
XXVV
Its a lot of fun and you wont be wasting your time
Sometimes I do make errors and will advise.
The SFB I tested for 1000 games which was about 5000 spins. That sample showed a positive edge.
The truth is that the test sample was way too small. It needed to be at least 10x larger.
So SFB is a curious cul de sac but has some interesting qualities. The fatal flaw is the volatility of the bet outcomes ( the bet numbers). These can range from 1 through to 9.
A distribution chart shows a first sample of my tests achieving a great result. Later random testing did not support that.
The principle to overcome the volatility is to 'dampen' the volatility by targeting 3 finales to repeat rather than 2 as prior. That gives my MFB ( multi finales bet) and is well worth study flat staking.
At times the SFB can give a string of good results and you can follow a corrective series with a trigger and one or two wins but is slow and tricky. Not a smart bet.
Study the MFB ( mentioned elsewhere) and you will find that has real merit and is more stable and consistent enabling you to tweek the variables.
Am also exploring the idea of hybrid bets where two or more are joined to add to consistency.
More soon. Best XXVV
MFB works on average in 10 spin cycles so 100 spins will usually give 10 games.
I have found this to be a part smart bet.
I do not believe it has a permanent edge but can have long win streaks and the returns can be great if there are 3 finale targets or less.
You can flat stake and probably stop loss if 5 targets or more or say 13 bets or more.
I have found that in testing many 100 spin cycles a gain of + 80 units or more can be achieved.
Should you be interested in more research on this and two way exchange of ideas you can PM me.
Best
XXVV
Sorry that there has been a pause between my posts but will start to build a new momentum now.
I will be posting some seed ideas which are based on already demonstrated success and which will need to be further tuned and tested so will appreciate any assistance in due course.
Lets look at exploring Reverse Bets and the most efficient ways of achieving consistent profit.
I will give some examples soon of this with Dozens and then Columns.
It will be optional to cover zero but for high unit staking, it is best to allow a conservative cover bet.
More soon.
Will be posting some more detail to follow in the coming week.
However in essence here is some food for thought and I will give worked examples next week.
Target two consecutive wins to end a mini session.
Each win will give you +2 units on the RB.
I have found the ideal statistically efficient place to quit is between +4 and +5 units.
By taking profit on achieving this you can string together a long run of winning mini-sessions.
More next week
XXVV
A mini-session may be just a few spins and achieving say +5 units. the session matrix characteristics may still be monitored but fall away so you close that session.
So you then move to say another table and start a new mini session with a new matrix. Again step aside once you attained +5 units.
Occasionally a streak may push to say +15 before correction. So go with the flow and consolidate profit though at every step.
Steer clear of mini-sessions where the matrix gives warning signals.
More soon, and will expand some thoughts on attack signals.
While free for a few days from the pressures of the past year it is a window of opportunity to write and literally throw some ideas around in the Forum.
You may find I contradict myself from time to time, but that merely demonstrates that I am moving forward and from time to time change my mind. Refer Nassim Taleb.
To me roulette is a very different game from that which I studied 12 months ago.
In the past few days I have used the Forum to post on 3 or 4 threads and I must express gratitude to the goodwill of writers/ players like JL who are always encouraging and always themselves moving forward.
I am very excited about the status of the game of roulette and I see several ways through the mists to achieve quite spectacular short sequence gains.
This is the Experimental Thread so I can shorthand some ideas here.
If you have questions or queries you can ask me for clarification.
These are the ways I now approach the game:
Aggressive and confident attack attitude to play in general.
But first read the game and check at least three familiar sets of data to assess the mode- is it friendly, neutral or hostile.
I rate the likelihoods using my methods or the methods I have assembled, as friendly as high or low and 1 out of 10 as high and 2 out of 10 as low/ mild friendly.
So that is 30% outcomes friendly. Those games can be extended for max profit.
50% of outcomes are neutral and can go either way so get a out with a profit asap.
That leaves 2% as hostile. With these get out with minimum loss.
As good writers have advised one of the arts of roulette is to mitigate loss. In so doing you will be a winner.
I now try to hook profit with two attacks that operate in two dimensions or at 80 degrees, ie clusters of streets and clusters of favourable wheel sections. Where these overlap then you can attack in short bursts and take fast profit.
If successful then back off and close the mini session.
Over a working day you may have 3-5 mini sessions.
But never play if tired, or becoming weary, or sensing that the tide has turned. If you need to prove it and smile then scale down your bets. Most often this will be the case and you can rejoice you stopped when you did.
Soon I will provide some specific sets from live sessions and you can see what I am stating.
On other threads I have tried to state what may to some of you appear nonsense. I have planted the seeds. You start with linear, concrete, rational analysis, and on some days you may work entirely in that mode.
On other days the rational play can lead into intuitive over view based on your vast experience and testing knowledge of your bet characteristics. This play can go to the fuzzy logic lvel, and at times, given real preparation you can move to higher levels of analysis, intuition and guidance from subtle levels. You can work with others to focus your energies.
I know. I have done it with extraordinary results. Over a 2 hour period a few months ago working with an international group of helpers I turned 60 units into 980 units by the end. It was not without challenges and tests, but I have done this now on several occasions so that I know it is no accident. You can really focus if you know how and you are helped.
Not always will this be triumphant and part of the knowledge is to know when you should leave or even start.
There we move into levels which are subjective, partly metaphysical, and yet fundamental with this approach is to ensure detachment. Do not use funds required and needed elsewhere, and feel free and postive. then you will attract positive fresh free money to be re-distributed in society.
To me now roulette and casinos may just be one example of where this knowledge can be applied, but to me its a great place to start with many variables actually in your favour and known and limited.
More on this subject soon.
Best XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Oct 10, 02:15 AM 2012
I now try to hook profit with two attacks that operate in two dimensions or at 80 degrees, ie clusters of streets and clusters of favourable wheel sections. Where these overlap then you can attack in short bursts and take fast profit.
Dear XXVV
I am a fanatic of wheel sectors. could you please explain the above quote in your frame work theory? much appreciated. :thumbsup:
thanks
catalyst
Dear Catalyst
Thanks for your enquiry. I am pleased you are a fanatic. That helps.
Sections of the wheel are very useful for analysis and reading of the game. There are of course the great classical wheel sections which are aptly named and for some reason people do seem to take a reverential attitude toward zero.
That is an essay in itself because it is just another number on the wheel, yet its nothing as well. It forces 36 an even number to move into the uncertainty of 37 numbers in a cycle. So where do you split 18 or 19 or do you ignore zero and treat it as invisible.
I respect all these views and I do both, revere and ignore!
On a subtle level zero is mystical and in many traditions links material to spiritual, and shows the connection, the way.
Well what does all that have to do with winning at roulette? Actually a considerable amount because the table and its players and dealers give a lot of 'weight' to zero.
Psychologically, and also as a reference point. Also an energy focus.
One of my methods taught to me by a brilliant mathematician and statistician, used the French wheel ( lets ignore the pesky 00 layout although we can handle that easily but by other means), and formed 4 sets of 9 numbers. Lets call them A,B,C and D. Later I adapted his number set ideas and applied them to the wheel layout as well as the table layout.
I centred the A section on zero and then just moved around the wheel. Curiously the number 1 falls between C and D, so in a way I call that my 'zero' and ignore it , or in real play load it whenever C and D cluster. It is part of the Cluster Theory.
A dealer once told me 1 is one of the least popular numbers on the table, but it has its uses for me.
I won't go into the technical detail here, as this is a framework discussion, but suffice to say I read the performance of the wheel sets, and overlap say the sets I have derived for finales, or say table layout streets. Sometimes it is like a target. You get a fix. And over a few spins in a short cycle that random generates there may be astonishing opportunities revealed.
By looking just below the surface it is astonishing what can be revealed in your reading of the game.
Massive testing and sampling is needed to know the performance parameters and bet characteristics you form, so you can tell when its hot or not.
We are looking for the signs.
Then you can strike swiftly. Get in and get out. On rare occasions, and those are golden, the cycle gets stuck.
About 5 months ago I had such an occurrence at a rapid roulette table. The dealer grooved into the 16 to14 area. I was fortunate to encounter a triple 1, and with each bet repeated the earlier bet by hitting the repeat button and kept adding.
100 unit starter ended with 1000 units over a ten spin phase.
I cashed out and went to a $5 unit table and used half the previous profit for a bank. Curiously at that table 14 and neighbours was hot and I struck several picture bet hits on 14 ( +103 units), and ended a golden couple of hours turning 100 into 2500 units.
It was a special opportunity which I seized, but only through being able to read the wheel sections in particular. On that occasion I was 'in the zone'.
At other times there can be a grouping of A finales or D streets etc. You can figure what that means, but there are often opportunities if you know how and where to look.
And that's just at one level.
Hope this helps and provides an incentive for your further successful research.
I will be signing off now for a while as work pressures call and I will not have very much time for writing probably until Christmas.
Time accelerates in my perception anyway, from now on, at this time of year, so I will keep you posted with research and play progress and publish some live game samples soon to provoke further thought.
If you have questions you can message me and I will endeavour to respond when possible.
Best XXVV
Greetings
This is the first opportunity to write after re-travels are completed.
As promised I am producing a sequence of numbers from the live casino. The first will be from ten days ago, and the second from a couple of hours ago live.
The first example illustrates the extraordinary and beautiful short symmetries that sometimes occur from random generation of numbers, ie the roulette wheel.
Here is a useful hint. Sometimes when a number has repeated it, I target it in a short cycle ( not necessarily direct one after the other but say twice in 37 spins).
In this case 0 became a target......
26
27
0
0
11
6
24
23
16
18
then
0 so 0 was hit but wait there's more!
5
9
5
what do you think came next 9 or 5/ or neighbours or zero.
it was....
0 !!!!! loaded to the gunwhales with chips.
then
26 !!!!
this was one of those opportunities where you can make a thousand dollars cash free and positive money!!!
also in the same session it was clear repeats were appearing and note the following varieties of rich pickings....
12
20
27
17
17
16
3
1
8
24
24
6
18
6
8
.......
then to todays numbers
again there were a lot of repeats but this sample illustrates how I cross target to strike with a more efficient and aggressive bet....
4
28
4
34
36
3
23
30
0
33
8
1
20.....
the way I play is to use zero as my treasure galleon. I load it so that when we hit it is a suitable place to take profit and run.
look at the number outcomes and you will see a run of AC wheel section cluster ( as described earlier) and mixed with a target likely of a C streets ( described earlier) , ie 33 and 20. ( 1 is a neighbour)
Today I played 3 relatively short sessions and achieved returns in relation to Risk Bank, of 65%. 70% and 68%.
Hit and run. Closing a session after say 20-30 live spins after pre-monitoring say 30 spins.
Question me if you need explanations but herein you will find some powerful techniques which can be easily managed.
I will be writing more very soon on the subject of "free money" and "positive money".
This latter may change the face of society in coming years, and the casino is one place where it can be accessed. Our new inter-connected 'wired' society is going to enable the science of money to start being explored and understood by all, not just a tiny minority as is the current state.
This is a very powerful secret about to be revealed.
It is quite fantastic that roulette can be one of the best means to access and provide the consistent returns this new understanding will enable.
Much to be very excited about! Will continue this thread later in the coming week. Christmas is coming!
Best XXVV
Am working on some brilliant ideas with trusted colleagues. These ideas are extremely exciting and in due course after appropriate testing I will introduce these, in an appropriate format, to the Forum.
Thesis : There are methods to consistently improve bet efficiency and to achieve positive net returns in spite of the casino edge. Goal is to enable compounding of net average returns. There will still be losing sessions but the adverse effects can be mitigated and the positive effects can be magnified.
Implicit in this will also be the need for increased levels of self awareness and self management in order to enable compounding session by session of positive net returns.
It is essential to know when to overview, stop, and when to start, and again when to stop.
In other words it is about reading the game flow, selecting a target and then attacking that target, preferably flat staking. A recommended target goal, a percentage return that falls within key parameters, is set and attained, in cases usually about 7-8 successes for 1 loss.
That is what we are striving to achieve and enable others to benefit also.
More soon.
XXVV
look forward to reading it mate :)
Thanks
Over the weekend I will be posting some specifics on this and if there are questions or comments, fire away.
Then in the near future I may be able to point in a few helpful directions toward some professional / semi-professional play opportunities. This is being approached very carefully step by step, with some expert advice from trusted colleagues.
More soon.
Best
XXVV
Firstly let me emphasise that my style of play and my knowledge of the game is not perfect. I endeavour to grow my experience and skills, but I must make clear that there are weaknesses in my approach to self management that still need much work, and despite twenty years of roulette play and tuition, and astonishing progress in the past 2-3 years, especially this past year, I still can make errors, and can still encounter losing sessions.
This disclaimer is probably a statement of the human condition.
The personality needs training, much training, and perfection ( or one's misty perception of it) really is unattainable, and probably should not be sought as it is a mirage in the desert sun.
Nevertheless the 'ideal' bet and the 'ideal' self management are states and characteristics which we can start to define, and these can act as guides along a difficult path.
The bets we construct, the traps we set to capture 'coups' in roulette need to be efficient* and robust** to withstand the vagaries of our day to day performance.
Last night I was listening to several professional poker players (US) discussing their 'reading of the game', and explaining (rationalising) why they did what they did when they did in the hands of a session. They were very articulate, and these guys are champions. Nevertheless it is always easier in hindsight, but they successfully measured and assessed their hands and those of their fellow players. Sometimes though they did lose, and substantially, but within reason did, or believed they did, mitigate their loss exposure.
Its all about balance, and the weighing and assessing of opportunities, risk, and then timing, to act appropriately.
To carry over into roulette, we as players remain less verbal during play than poker players and it appears that roulette is an inner game, at least for the professional levels required for sustainable success.
We need to have though the same balance of left and right brain activity to analyse, and to imagine, and to articulate, and act decisively with near perfect timing.
I know that at times my own play, my analysis, my actions, may be out of step, out of phase and just not sparking. Other times it can be astonishing.
Like the pro-golfers, the tennis players, the poker players we need, more often than not to be 'in the zone' in order to lift our game, and our net earnings.
So it is this quality of ' being in the zone', and balancing the brain activities, and tuning our performance, that I and my colleagues are working to develop, and we will provide ways so that those sufficiently motivated will be able to lift their game.
More on this soon.
If you read some of my threads written over the past year you will see I have explored several bets, and come to know and understand the 'characteristics' of those bets. They need to be 'smarter' bets and capable of being managed so as to leverage profit when applied with skill and good timing.
* for example 'efficient' bets are economic as an engineer would design them - no waste
** and 'robust' bets need to be forgiving to the extent that the operator may not always be applying them with perfect self management. So in spite of our ( sometimes) human frailties the bets will still work, although maybe not at peak output. In other words we dont make the bets so complicated that errors can creep in and negate our efforts to overcome the house edge.
On this basis I developed the "Reverse Bet' which was an operational reversal of the clever D + C bet.
Played when appropriate ( after analysis of moving average outcomes) the R/B could produce short streaks of positive results, gaining +2 units per win and only -1 if a loss. Flat staked, which is a smart way to play, the R/B was useful if played in short bursts with a high unit value.
Analysis showed the smartest usage of the bet combined M/A analysis with profit take at between +3 to +5 units. Cut losses once the tide turned. Hit and run methodology. And when played cleverly say $100 units, then a short session would be worth your while.
Also like all worthy bets it is capable of being applied and building up your unit value, given you have sufficient patience.
Many roulette players want a substantial return and in too much haste. This may be unrealistic, depending on the nature of the sequence you are playing, and also in the context of your available risk bank and your goal for the session.
There are some brilliant writers on this and a key is to seek say a +10% return on your risk bank per session, on a long term average ( including the occasional loss and wipe-out).
I will be candid and state this is one of the biggest player self management traps I encounter. trying to do too much with too little in too short a space of time. Pressure.
Best to back off, keep cool, and approach your entire play with an overview risk bank. How many roulette players actually define and do this? The over risk bank is then divided into multiple session risk banks.
Despite the occasional setbacks and losses, it is still possible to compound your earnings by stringing a series of winning sessions ( I think my personal record is 17).
More on this soon.
Best XXVV
How many times have you commenced a session, having prepared a goal target, and been offered within 3 spins, an excess of your target, and then played on, only to eventually lose your starting bank, assuming a small risk bank say?
Your answer to this will determine your self honesty and also what I term SQ. That is Stupidity Quotient.
My point is that our performance varies day to day. One day brilliant, the next folly, unless you can harness and control from an overview of higher levels of self management.
It is easy to write and state wonderful goals, and yes there is some worth to doing this, but really what we really need is a Master Plan for Action.
This is an overview that will keep us on track and it is a series, a hierarchical set of instructions, rules, guides on the path that we will need to help us on our main goal, our personal goal plan.
So what is that goal? Does it vary player to player, or do we all want the some thing? Success? Recognition? Respect? Self Respect? Consistent Extra Income? Full time Professional Income?
I am asking these questions because I am wondering who tunes into the Forum. What is the attitude and the approach spread of all our members? Does it vary wildly?
So I am going to try to consider the traits of our players on this Forum. I mean no disrespect at all. I have been very honest in describing my shortcomings when not in focus. From this overview it may be possible to see just what needs to be addressed.
Then from the Forum, to the Casinos. There must be a vast spread. From the internet Casinos to the B+M Casinos.
Behind or beyond it all, despite our differences, would we agree that if we could find and patch together a series of proven methodologies, and self management procedures, in a manner that was enjoyable, fun and smart, and we could consistently profit, would we then be happy and fulfilled? Surely.
Perhaps also we might ( at least attempt to ) dispel the (self) doubts of the sceptics who believe it is impossible to beat the odds of the house edge in roulette.
And, potentially, more than that, those that were sufficiently self motivated, they could have the opportunity to launch a professional career that would provide positive money to re-distribute far and wide, helping create prosperity and creativity on ever larger vistas.
Seems like a dream?
Well I dont believe it is a fantasy, and in fact I believe we are indeed well on the way to driving inexorably toward this. It simply requires FOCUS.
More on this soon, and within reason, I will be specific as to a plan for the way forward.
Very Best
XXVV
Here is a set of outcomes from live play yesterday :
22
36
20
29
3
31
16
17
31
8
36
27
4
24
2
32
20
4
18
36
---
3
33
3
11
16
31
12
22
27
6
5
12
22
14
27
36
8
13
12
---
31
12
30
1
30
14
7
16
1
1
____
29
0
4
1
1 !!! !!!
---
note with this the extraordinary opportunity provided by the crunch on 1 at the end of the session
I notate wheel sections and 1 happens to be midway for me between 2 sets of 9 numbers, so 1 signifies the cluster is really formed.
Parallel with this fix in the wheel outcomes was a massive string of AB streets intersperced occasionally with minor C streets.
These all gave cross hairs for the targets...
Such opportunities as this session outcome provided. ie short term trends/ skews are actually common when you know how and where to look.
Today in the live casino, targetting a mere 0 and the two neighbours either side there were 14 hits in 52 spins. That is a rate better than 1 hit per 4 spins where the expectation is 1 in 7.4.
The result was +232 units in 52 spins flat staking and max exposure of a mere 25 units to get going.
Point of this note is to illustrate strong short term betting opportunities.
If you are alert and enabled you can hugely profit from such opportunities.
Best
XXVV
Hi Everyone
Thanks to those who choose to read this thread. I am grateful to everyone who clicks on as it is a contribution I appreciate. It is your choice and I trust I can provide some worthwhile content for you, and something concrete which you can absorb and apply from which to benefit.
These are extraordinary times.
No doubt many of you are impacted to some degree by 'austerity measures' and the tuning of economies through Economists - professionals of a dark science if ever there was one.
No disrespect! Dark just means 'clouded' in this context. At least at this time.
I am advised that in years to come the Science of Money will indeed become very bright and we trust that prosperity may spread with good free money.
I have been reflecting in recent days on 'first principles' and then looking to re-build and re-boot.
Going back in time a little I wanted to remind you of a website and focus program that has become very important to me, and which I had earlier recommended, but now would suggest should be required study for any professional.
Eric Nielsen's 'Inner Track' - a guide to winning. Refer the series :.professionalsinsight.com
Key is a meditation study for 40 mins which should go for 30 days and thereafter be regularly applied and studied. It is applicable to all aspects of a richer life.
When I first heard this I scanned and set aside.
Now I realise what a valuable tool it is from a genuine and true roulette expert in his field.
I have no vested interest in promoting this other than saying what a wonderful first step in the right direction.
In due course, and in fact quite soon now, I too will be participating in establishing a remarkable website which I believe will be of fantastic help to professionals worldwide.
The increasing power of the internet and skype communication is such that our world of communication and exchange of information, and teaching, is rapidly changing. This has to be good.
I still bear the scars of that awful scam from the 'Swiss' a while back. My efforts have consistently been directed to correct the perversion of those who had such knowledge. and yet who chose to cheat so many. It still really astonishes me how they chose the wrong path.
Regarding any mention of what work I am proposing will require some advice from the Senior Counsel of this web site so amongst others I will be contacting Victor before becoming too specific.
I will continue to update in the meantime.
Best
R
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Oct 24, 02:27 AM 2012
I still bear the scars of that awful scam from the 'Swiss' a while back. My efforts have consistently been directed to correct the perversion of those who had such knowledge. and yet who chose to cheat so manyyet who chose to cheat so many. It still really astonishes me how they chose the wrong path.
@ XXVV
Could you help me out and explain what you mean by this paragraph please :-\
Are you saying they do/did know how to win (those who had such knowledge) but instead decided to con people (yet who chose to cheat so many).
Is it at all possible it played out like this :-
the "Swiss" were indeed the Real McCoy & got the guys n girls that they wanted for their "club". So what next? Job done, how to fade back into the background?
Simple..... Don't inform the many (I assume) who applied, close the website & run for the hills. That way virtually everybody thinks they are indeed scammers.
I'm very sorry that many forum members lost money :( but they were told the application fee was non-refundable. Another thing I found strange was the bank account given out, it wasn't from some tin pot country with a dodgy financial set up, it was from a big Uk bank ???
Of course it could all just of been a con >:(
Not trying to set off a hornets nests guys, just my 2cents!!!!!
O0
Well, I guess this is in the context of Experimental Studies in Professional Roulette, even if now directed to learning how to filter out the real from the nonsense, the true from the sham.
In the case of what was offered to train a group to become very efficient professional roulette players and provide lofty aims, it is clear it was a scam.
Amongst others I registered a formal complaint with International Authorities.
It was a criminal and pre-meditated fraud.
However on long reflection and analysis it has become clear that the principal/s involved in the fraud had a certain amount of knowledge, and indeed some of that foundation work has since been used to develop genuine and successful bets ( eg the Reverse Bet to which I have earlier referred).
My personal belief is that the fraudsters milked much data and information sent to them to build up their sum of knowledge to even greater levels.
The principal individual involved in this fraud who has had a succession of websites under aliases had taken much money in earlier attempts to sell bets of dubious worth. It was known that his locality was the south coast in the UK and thus it was no surprise the host bank was the local branch of HKSB.
It is clear to me these fraudsters did not actually have a perfected bet, although there were some skeleton bets which had small short cycle uses and from time to time with skillful entry and exit , some profit could be made. But at other times the gains could easily have been lost.
The worked example provided by them was carefully chosen to exhibit a maximum skew so as to present what appeared a great result. So it was and the spins were real, but only of limited use.
The irony is that the distress caused by the fraudsters motivated myself and some colleagues to find genuine winning ways.
And the good news is that they are out there and in plentiful supply if you know where to look and how to look.
There are no easy answers and we have worked thousands of hours to know now what we do.
From time to time I have accessed some of these new findings and I can report there are extraordinary ones proven and now being used by some I know.
I do hope quite soon to help provide access to what I believe will be one of the simplest and most reliable ways to profit from roulette.
Once you get that door open, further progress can be made in research.
By re-reading some of the later work from those 'Swiss' scammers you will find some useful staring points for your own research.
More on this fascinating subject soon.
Best
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Oct 27, 12:35 AM 2012
In the case of what was offered to train a group to become very efficient professional roulette players and provide lofty aims, it is clear it was a scam.
Amongst others I registered a formal complaint with International Authorities.
It was a criminal and pre-meditated fraud.
You are obviously 100% sure about this. So where can I find the thread you must of started regarding the Swiss being arrested & no doubt found guilty of this "pre-mediated" fraud?
O0
@ddarko
Sincere thanks for your interest in this matter and comments. Healthy scepticism is always welcome. However no further comment by me beyond this post is necessary as my point here is that we have learned from that experience, which actually was the nadir of a series of earlier scams, and we have taken the bones, the skeleton of some of what at the time was discussed and we have built some worthwhile and successful bets from these, in spite of the frustration at the time.
My aim is forward and not backward and you will be aware that internet fraud, or 'alleged' fraud if you like, can be hard to police. The formal complaint to the FBI and Metropolitan Police was all that could be done at the time.
If you wish to believe that there are other scenarios please feel free to commence a thread along those lines as another parallel universe theory. No further comment on the scam matter within this thread need be posted. The aim of this thread is to build successful professional play, real play , and not fantasy or fraudulent. We are exploring experimental ideas and noting ways to push forward and share those within the Forum.
Moving on....
In reading Nassim Taleb's books on randomness there is mention of a fabled MonteCarlo Machine/ Program.
My dear friend and colleague B. ( for those interested his contact details can be provided given his approval) has designed such a Machine to analyse one of the preferred simple bets I have recently referred to in this thread
Simplicity should be a quality we seek in engineering appropriate bets for professional play, as should relatively high return to risk exposure ( at least 2:1). and the bet characteristics have to be understood based on your own live testing to know and understand the parameters. Best case and worst case scenarios. In fact is there a loss limit? Also best if we flat stake to reduce just that what if?/ whale/ black swan event scenario.
In my work I use the term 'a tendency towards' an outcome because it is prudent to allow for slippage or to make allowance for approximations. A ball can skip if you are viewing physically. In result analysis the bell curve may peak but the spread of the curve may cover an area of fertile exposure. Or there may just be simply through evidence by trial and error ( heuristics) a beneficial zone of investment. Such is the case here under certain conditions.
Hence, and this is a big clue in my work now, I target one number and allow two neighbours on either side of the wheel. Thats the wheel model anyway.
My colleague B has applied the Monte Carlo Machine to such bet selection under key circumstances and conditions and that now forms a wonderful benchmark for random expectations.
We can then overlay our results given our special selection process.
We can then measure any difference over a large ongoing sample basis.
Because some distributions are not based on bell curve scenarios, but rather decay curves, then the measurement of 'deviations' and outcome 'edge' will have to be different.
This Machine enables such measurement in due course.
More soon.
Best
R
XXVV
Here is a little food for thought.
I view strands of winning sessions or micro sessions as a 'living thread'.
They need great care to be sustained and kept alive. Sometimes the end must come to a strand but hopefully well after it has faithfully provided a string of helpful disbursements that may be hundreds or possibly thousands.
As earlier discussed you can compound the earnings, but at present I try to string say from 6 to 12 sessions to enable a good percentage of net profit to be tapped.
You have to be so vigilant though that you are not fooled or undone by being unprepared for a session. I am starting to introduce a checklist of preparations for focus.
I have noted when this is not attended to or if several hours have elapsed since your last freshening, then take time out and re-focus.
This involves clear breathing exercises, and focus on goals and targets, and self discipline.
As an aside I have also been applying the earlier 'moving average' analysis (m/a) to basic flat staking on simple target selections.
I take the last three appearances of the target or target group. I measure the spaces between hits, and add the last three. I play ONLY when the moving average sum is reducing ( ie the hits are becoming closer). This is a sure sign that indicates turning points and I always carry on the rolling moving average of the latest three.
With such discipline this can be a great help even if your target selection is without edge.
In truth by doing what you now do by stopping and starting on the m/a signal this effectively provides you with a positive edge.
Imagine what you can do if your selection target also has other forces at work to more effectively select winning bets.
This is some of the work now underway.
More soon
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 01, 03:02 AM 2012
As earlier discussed you can compound the earnings, but at present I try to string say from 6 to 12 sessions to enable a good percentage of net profit to be tapped.
I take the last three appearances of the target or target group. I measure the spaces between hits, and add the last three. I play ONLY when the moving average sum is reducing ( ie the hits are becoming closer). This is a sure sign that indicates turning points and I always carry on the rolling moving average of the latest three.
With such discipline this can be a great help even if your target selection is without edge.
In truth by doing what you now do by stopping and starting on the m/a signal this effectively provides you with a positive edge.
Imagine what you can do if your selection target also has other forces at work to more effectively select winning bets.
This is some of the work now underway.
Dear XXVV
I have noticed in various places you have mentioned 'compounding' the profit. could you please suggest a few preffered ways? one way could be using parlay. but if the series of hits are spaced in every three or four spins, such as for 4-sector bets, then compounding become difficult. then a 'mini' progression, positive or negative, inside flat bet, could be useful. your analysis on this is appreciated.
your ideas of moving average in your previous posts always remind me that ability of reading it is a gift which can not be actualised without practising on thousands of spins. its the only way forward.
thanks
catalyst
@catalyst
thanks for your reply and comments.
I am looking only to compound the results from the end of every session, so the internal bets and movement within a session are irrelevant. If its a break even thats ok, and even a small loss, but generally I believe it is possible to compound +5% net on your overall risk bank per session. That could be daily and it includes minor setbacks.
I have a dear and trusted colleague who is compounding at 7% over the past 3-4 months.
At this stage he is quietly building up his unit value having started from the bottom and smallest unit value on inside table bets. He steps up his unit value every 14th session
Stepping can be for example 2 to 3 to 5 units - not doubling.
The compounding is the net overall bank sum growth. By moving to higher unit values the compounding can remain at 7% but the total sum is expanding more rapidly.
This has vast implications which we are only just starting to realise, understand, believe and utilise!
Reading of a game does take practice of course but it is simply to find a simple and fast way to dig below the surface a little. It requires focus, attention, alertness, intelligence and a method.
The moving average need be a very simple device and I will give an example next post.
Okay lets say we have 5 targets on straight up numbers based on a core target and two neighbours either side, in this case of the wheel layout.
From over 100 real spins from yesterday's live play in the casino here are the spaces between hits as they unfolded:
2 spins
and then hit on the 4th spin and so on
ie so the format is
2
4
12 ...18 wait for three coup outcomes before assessing the m/a - this may require 10-50 spins
1 17 and signal to attack and we win on the 3 spacing
3 16 again attack and we win on the 7 spin spacing (just)
7 11 signal to attack but loss so we stop
11 21 stop!
19 37
24 54
3 46 okay signal to attack and we win with a 2 spacing
2 29 attack and win with another 2
2 7 attack and win with a 6 spacing but caution now because increasing sum
6 10 stop!
13 21
ie 14 hits in 109 spins
that is an average of approx 1 in 8 slightly greater spread between hits than expected.
The standard expectation on a 37 number wheel is 37/5 being 1 in 7.40
The m/a is simply the sum of the three prior rolling spacings. We have 'transposed' the data into another modelling format to 'read' the game.
Simple and very often effective.
The actual spins from the session were :
20
32
2
2
23
26
17
5
34
10
36
2
..... etc
Hope this helps.
Now those five numbers are core zero section appearing at random.
Overlaying the above approach I have various other methods to signal the increased likelihood of the zero section, based on prior spin sequences ( complex statistical multi set analysis), but also we are working on entirely different ways to predict such outcomes. More on this later.
Overlaying such work with the m/a methods can multiply your betting efficiencies. It does not mean you always win but you know better when to stop and start, and to bet more effectively and obtain greater return on your working capital.
Serious stuff.
Best
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 01, 07:05 PM 2012
Overlaying the above approach I have various other methods to signal the increased likelihood of the zero section, based on prior spin sequences ( complex statistical multi set analysis), but also we are working on entirely different ways to predict such outcomes. More on this later.
Overlaying such work with the m/a methods can multiply your betting efficiencies. It does not mean you always win but you know better when to stop and start, and to bet more effectively and obtain greater return on your working capital.
Serious stuff.
Best
XXVV
your ideas of M/A is perfectly in line with my expectation as i have cross-checked thousands of spins for inside numbers. but overlaying other methods is still a enigma to me. but i am analyzing your previous posts to get an overall idea.
compounding too remain an 'mis'understood block. so you are suggesting to increase unit value at the end of session for compounding ? :question:
i am glad i have got some very important ideas from this thread for my sector bet.
thanks
catalyst
@catalyst
thanks again for your comments and questions....
Utilising the m/a as a signal to start and stop will improve your betting efficiency.
You can measure the edge differential by experimental evidence from true live spins ( NOT random generated stuff - unless through my colleague who generates his random from pi )
I think I have shown you the zero section 5 numbers as an example and you simply accrue the latest three mini coups where one of those numbers has been hit - add them up and keep a rolling running total of the latest three. When it reduces that is a signal to attack. When it rises you stop, or also you stop after say three successive good net wins, ie hits on 7th spin or less since last show.
Now, say you overlay a statistically based group / set of 9 numbers featuring zero as its core and call that A. You mark the other 27 +1 numbers as B, C and D.
Then you can find ways to read the game and even predict outcomes based on cluster theory.
If you, or anyone else is interested in this very big subject please contact me, say by PM and I will see if I can assist.
My philosophy, which is shared by my colleagues, is to seek and distribute 'abundance' in life.
I am not interested in selfish enterprise which is self defeating.
That is why I am prepared to assist, within reason. More on this soon.
Here is another hint ( and its not a dead end hint either-LoL) - work out 4 sets of finales A,B,C, D on the numbers of the wheel/ table
For example 1,3 Ffinales and the number Zero is A.
2.4 and number 10 is B
5,6 and 20 is C
7,8,9 and 30 is D
Again cluster theory can predict forthcoming appearances by Zero and similar finales with 90% accuracy.
Imagine overlaying Finales + Wheel Sets and m/a on the Five. Every day live.
that's what I do.
Best
XXVV
Compounding can be handled in several ways depending on your risk tolerance.
I flat stake bet but one of my colleagues has recommended that I could increase my bet unit value, say on a ratio of 2:3 or 3 :5 after 14 level stake winning coups.
A session may be only 3 coups if you are pressed for time or playing high value - so you just seamlessly continue your next session onward toward 14.
That is very conservative. It could be stepped after 7 coups.
Or you can wind it up $2 unit to $3 unit to $5 units in clusters of three coups. Aggressive.
Just a simple parlay but highly effective.
XXVV
The correct term for the overlay on the flat staking method I have outlined for the 5 number attack method is a moving sum.
Do not not underestimate what I have provided here a start and stop signal.
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 08, 09:11 PM 2012
The correct term for the overlay on the flat staking method I have outlined for the 5 number attack method is a moving sum.
Do not not underestimate what I have provided here a start and stop signal.
XXVV
Dear XXVV
moving sum is also active in actual RNG which surprises me. parlay concept in three coups in cluster is already in my attention. but it could be extended more and possibly the third parlay could be continuous with the moving sum until it dies. i googled for cluster theory and found out some. could you please provide some more in applicability in sectors.
thanks
catalyst
@catalyst
this is a big question, and at this stage I am not prepared to go into further cluster theory detail as there are reasons why I do not want to publish very powerful material without closer working relationship with colleagues.
Should you wish please P/M me and I will consider your request and further detail.
As you may know I work with selected colleagues and am always open to expansion of this network.
At this stage also am working on a website which in due course will harness a huge amount of technical knowledge and power, in the true spirit of abundance and genuine professional application of our sum total of roulette to turn this to mutual advantage.
Its a big ask, a big quest and it cannot be rushed but the process to organise is underway and the team is working on it.
In the meantime I have illustrated the most simple of bets here and have now sampled 4000 live spins from 50 live sessions at my local casino.
The results by applying simple start /stop rules based on the simple running/ moving sum, shows a +20% edge.
As with my work on the Reverse Bet, when a m/a is applied or moving sum ( simpler and faster), the operator needs perfected skill, experience, judgement, and patience.
Such qualities are very rare in casino players but the term 'professional' changes things because so much is at stake.
The bet characteristics are now seen and understood after monitoring and reviewing in hind sight the 4000 spins.
Its a very tough call. Even the testing would turn off most and the actual live play to meet the requirements of the start/ stop criteria is probably less than 10% of the total time at the table. Some sessions don't even qualify to start ( rare).
So it is important to overlay such a bet with perhaps another simple bet so you as the player are legitimate to be occupying table space, but also that you don't fall asleep ! -LoL.
These all go into the make up of what we term 'the perfect bet'.
More on that later.
My results for the flat stake (not parlay) play on the method shows +850 units after 4000 spins.
The behaviour of flat staking though needs warning because it did retrace from 600 to 250 over a 2000 spin extent, but never went negative in this trial anyway.
Now there is caution but hope.
Even with 20% edge you can still go through loss phases.
There are strategies to mitigate such loss and at other times to accentuate the positives. The parlays may be of use there.
In my view you can pick any 5 numbers. They don't have to be contiguous on the wheel.
Hope this helps you and is intended as food for thought.
Of course I will carry on the test sample to 50,000 spins plus.
However the point I am making is that 'overlays' can really add effectiveness to your bets.
The one illustrated here is just one simple one.
Best
XXVV
As we all know early results in testing any procedure often show over optimistic results. However in this case I conservatively believe the edge may settle to a respectable 10%. At present it is hovering 15-25% and that after a few slow phases.
In coming days I will crunch a lot more data.
What I really want to emphasise is that overlays and disciplined insight can really adjust the way you read and see the game.
Nevertheless there will still be games that are too murky to penetrate and these should be set aside. It is just that they require other tools.
By the way we believe our new website may be able to be in operation now within a month for testing. Will advise.
XXVV
Here is an example of the five number strategy ( rolling sum overlay method) applied to a short session from this morning live at the casino.
It was a modest little exercise and may illustrate what I have been trying to explain.
33
30
9
30
30
2
17
8
12
34
30
31
11
3
32
7
33
10
35
28
26
28
19
20
32
2
2
23
26
--------
Notice the spacings on the 5 number target centred on zero on the wheel
14 14
1 15
6 21
4 11 signal to attack
4 14 signal to stop hit and +36 - 20 = +16 units
The LH column is the spacings between (inclusive) of a hit on one of the 5 targets
The RH column is the rolling sum total of the last three of these.
This transformation provides the signal to attack if going smaller or levelling or of pausing and stopping if enlarging.
The 16 units was earned in 29 spins.
Overall to date on my testings the edge is +20% in the players favour by overlaying the start/ stop strategy, even in its crudest and simplest sense, flat staking.
In the fullness of a robust 50,000 spin sample I anticipate the edge slipping to 10% but this is still a formidable result from such simple means.
Our new web site when operational after preliminary testing and tuning will feature a message board so players can openly comment on experiences and results.
Our goals are authenticity and abundance in the fullest sense.
Best
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 09, 11:15 PM 2012
@catalyst
this is a big question, and at this stage I am not prepared to go into further cluster theory detail as there are reasons why I do not want to publish very powerful material without closer working relationship with colleagues.
Should you wish please P/M me and I will consider your request and further detail.
As you may know I work with selected colleagues and am always open to expansion of this network.
At this stage also am working on a website which in due course will harness a huge amount of technical knowledge and power, in the true spirit of abundance and genuine professional application of our sum total of roulette to turn this to mutual advantage.
Its a big ask, a big quest and it cannot be rushed but the process to organise is underway and the team is working on it.
In the meantime I have illustrated the most simple of bets here and have now sampled 4000 live spins from 50 live sessions at my local casino.
The results by applying simple start /stop rules based on the simple running/ moving sum, shows a +20% edge.
As with my work on the Reverse Bet, when a m/a is applied or moving sum ( simpler and faster), the operator needs perfected skill, experience, judgement, and patience.
Such qualities are very rare in casino players but the term 'professional' changes things because so much is at stake.
The bet characteristics are now seen and understood after monitoring and reviewing in hind sight the 4000 spins.
Its a very tough call. Even the testing would turn off most and the actual live play to meet the requirements of the start/ stop criteria is probably less than 10% of the total time at the table. Some sessions don't even qualify to start ( rare).
So it is important to overlay such a bet with perhaps another simple bet so you as the player are legitimate to be occupying table space, but also that you don't fall asleep ! -LoL.
These all go into the make up of what we term 'the perfect bet'.
More on that later.
My results for the flat stake (not parlay) play on the method shows +850 units after 4000 spins.
The behaviour of flat staking though needs warning because it did retrace from 600 to 250 over a 2000 spin extent, but never went negative in this trial anyway.
Now there is caution but hope.
Even with 20% edge you can still go through loss phases.
There are strategies to mitigate such loss and at other times to accentuate the positives. The parlays may be of use there.
In my view you can pick any 5 numbers. They don't have to be contiguous on the wheel.
Hope this helps you and is intended as food for thought.
Of course I will carry on the test sample to 50,000 spins plus.
However the point I am making is that 'overlays' can really add effectiveness to your bets.
The one illustrated here is just one simple one.
Best
XXVV
I enjoy your analytical approach but it sometimes feels like a case of reversed engineering. If you have unusually good results playing your method you tend to attribute it to your bet selection. But it might be just a pure luck. Here i saw that you lost 350u in period of 2000 spins after you hit 600u. that's quite normal. I flat bet 1 to 6 numbers and had a run of 1000u gain in around 5k spins. Had few winning sessions in excess of 200u and few losing ones but overall balance still in a positive territory. You predict in 50k spins to have still a 10% edge after you are now at 20%. Can you explain it a bit more? I just have a problem with some definitive claims in roulette in general.
Regards
@RobinHood
Thank you Matt
You are quite right to exercise a cautionary note over my recent words. The risk of ' reverse engineering' using the magic of hindsight is particularly appropriate.
What I have done here is to choose a ridiculously simple bet and try to illustrate how even such a simple approach given smart overlays can turn a humble bet into a professional bet.
The Reverse Bet that was derived from the great work by Scooby et al. was shown to be further enhanced by various 'moving averages (m/a). From the extreme version ( 12 steps) where the patience of a saint is required to the more volatile (3 steps)*, the bet efficiency was consistently improved when comparative results were prepared using past live data.
Sure we engineered it from past data but over vast sample sizes and from various sources.
The danger of reverse engineering is where you just utlise one limited source and pool of data to fool yourself into creating a method that would have worked brilliantly, if only it had been applied ahead of time.
That is of course a terrible self defeating trap.
We have been very careful to review large samples, robust samples of at least 50,000 spins and those also from a variety of trusted and true live data sources. Best if its your own bet experience. I am so fortunate to have access to live data from Ritz in London, Sydney StarCity, Auckland Sky City and Christchurch casinos. Also we have European Casinos and even some random generated data on massive sample sizes derived from pi, and not from suspect sources such as atmospheric noise conditions used by certain sources.
Reviewing data on Reverse Bet over year taught me to hone in on key bet characteristics very quickly and these, when flat staking can be extrapolated with caution as a 'tendency towards'.
This notion I find applies to a lot of roulette data, and hence I am interested in precision but with also a degree of looseness or slippage, such as a key single target on the wheel but with two neighbours either side. Hence the 5 target bet concept.
Extending then over from the R/ Bet work I am currently working laboriously through some live data on the start/ stop overlay in its crudest form ( three step running sum).
At present I have reviewed 81 sessions spread over a 6 month circuit but selected at random, ie not in time sequence of session date, and at present we have....
+1125 units ( a new all time high - a good sign this) in 6715 spins.
It is deliberately the crudest of tests and plays out conservatively till the end of each session. There is no discretionary stop while peaking etc, just grinding out even if a stop-loss -60 unit penalty is attached.
There is a huge difference in play approach between say digging out of an early hole, and instead playing with a series of early wins.
However in this case it is a simple grind with one overlay and at this time a +17% edge is demonstrated. Hence my experience from other flat testing on large samples is used to suggest that there may be a tendency toward the overall edge slowly settling to a +10% figure, as there is a gentle oscillation between extremes that seem to track down graphically in a gentle curve.
We shall see.
Hope this helps to explain my heuristic approach.
* the three steps are the result of the summation of the last three distance outcomes between wins in the 5 bet approach or with the Reverse Bet again the distance between hits. This 'transformation' seems to enable a view from a different perspective enabling fresh insight.
The sum term is chosen because its simpler and faster to apply and hence more applicable to fast live action and decision making live.
Also this simple one 'overlay' which seems to indicate a great edge, is just one of many that can be applied.
I hope to soon illustrate several new ways to enhance and make more efficient this potentially professional bet. We are on a most exciting journey of discovery here and that is why I am endeavouring to make the explanations to date, simple and transparent.
There are other overlays that will be provided soon that will be less transparent. But that is the nature of dealing with randomness. It is like peeling the layers from the onion, as below the surface fresh insights can be revealed, not immediately apparent from the surface.
Best
XXVV
@geo
Thanks so much for your contribution, comments, questions and insight. It will be fascinating to read more of your research.
Regarding the work of the Moderators, I can state that they do a magnificent job on this Forum and on the new BetSelection.cc Forum. It has always been a pleasure to work with Roulette Forum .cc and without the assistance of the Moderators at key earlier times life would have had different outcomes.
The wheels I work with are mainly shallow scalloped varieties of standard diameter. Occasionally a 'bucket wheel' of more confined 'grip' to a number is found and in Sydney I believe they are mainly like that. Some players at the higher levels prefer this latter variety I believe and in the private gaming rooms of the casinos I am advised that these types are preferred.
The ball seems to skip along on the shallow scallops and thus may unsettle the player as the ball especially the lightweight and smaller balls may skip out of the initial number seating.
It doesn't bother me at all. To me the outcome is the outcome and mechanical production of this random data sequence is always most entertaining and I don't lose any sleep over which means are utilised.
Hope this gets the ball rolling so to speak...
XXVV
To conclude the little study on the one overlay bet I suggested for a 5 number target flat staking bet, here is the data based on a modest 10,000 spin survey from my live play data over the past 9 months.
I want to emphasise this is just one of several possible 'overlays'.
The overlay I have used is a running or moving sum total based on the three last distances between hits to any one of those five numbers. In that sense it is a transformation.
It is so simple yet so effective.
Being flat staked, it does re-trace from time to time, and of course any five numbers could be used and they dont have to be contiguous on the wheel ( but I dont think it does any harm). Sometimes the five will move in and out of warmth/ heat, but as my testing used data randomly drawn from my game records there is no time influence here, and thus the ups and downs have an intrinsic natural flow.
10,000 spins sample in 123 sessions targetting zero as core with 3, 26, 32 and 15 added.
+1455 units
peaked at +1798.
Bet edge thus defined as +14.55% in this sample.
Overall the range has been swinging between 14 and 30 %, and there appears to be as always a gentle dampening of the volatility of this swing between the parameters. I also am very conservative as to clusters of samples and if I were to test 10,000 from London would we see the same characteristics?
I dont know but I will do this by end of year when I may have more research time.
My sense is that we should enable a net 10% postive edge here.
Also in this test there has been no consideration or overlay of edit of a session to close out a session while ahead say or to take a pre-determined percentage target. If this were done higher net returns would have been achieved. These results were played 'brain-dead', ie just grinding out to the end of the session.
I can report that the signal to attack provided by the direction of the moving sum can be an extraordinary herald of three or more quick hits on the zero numbers.
Lastly I want to really emphasise that this is a very simply bet. There are other even more powerful overlays I can recommend and apply so that there are the elements here of what I consider to be a superb professional bet approach and technique.
Very soon I will showing you how to apply these additional overlays. The new web site will outline these in due course.
Fundamental however before any such valuable information is the necessity for training and preparation in self knowledge, psychology, psychology of gambling, casino protocols, money management, mental preparation, fitness, and discrimination.
This is just a part of what will be needed, but by genuine and faithful application toward goals and positive outcomes (winning), then the first steps toward access to free money are being taken.
Free does not suggest easy or freedom from responsibility. Quite the contrary, but it does enable access to money that is clear of debt or negative emotional connotations.
Best
XXVV
Hello XXVV,
Thank you very much for your ideas and systems.
I have been reading and following all your post with great interest.
I have a question here for you regarding your 5 numbers bet.
14 14
1 15
6 21
4 11
4 14
3 11 signal to attack
( after 5 spins if there is still no win, do we stop or continue betting until a win?)
Regards
@sniper
In the context of the Forum I am trying to be helpful, not too specific, but providing genuine guides which can encourage and stimulate individual growth and progress.
This is different to the potentially false 'hinting' that drives us all crazy. My work is ethically sound.
Hence it is a matter of trial and error. I suggest a stop loss and you need to conduct your own tests to come to understand the 'bet characteristics' ( every bet is unique). I have used a stop at 12 bets which you may consider too much but the results I have and am about to publish utilise that figure so yes there can be setbacks at times.
My next post will go into this 'generically'.
Soon I plan to publish quite specific guides, but that may be next month and beyond the Forum.
However in the interim I have real spin samples to illustrate some points.
Hello XXVV,
Thank you very much for your explanation on the stop loss.
Looking forward to your next post.
Regards
I am going to publish here two sessions from live play 12 months ago at a local casino.
Both illustrate the remarkable power of this simple bet at its best. It is of course NOT always like this and you will have to find various means to mitigate loss and accentuate profit.
My target here is Zero and 4 neighbours.
Example One
36
30
9
17
10
12
24
30
28
35
2
11
6
4
14
2
4
22
22
4
28
3
0
0
26
32
30
32
28
23
24
21
16
18
12
27
0
3
22
24
24
28
26
........
+130 units
Example Two
33
9
21
5
14
1
28
27
24
26
7
32
21
6
26
8
29
10
5
22
17
12
35
10
35
10
13
24
13
25
10
25
8
22
8
19
19
24
22
5
13
32
0
6
6
1
20
16
33
19
0
14
8
3
34
11
23
31
32
33
5
23
5
12
1
26
26
14
32
32
18
14
24
16
32
11
11
17
10
36
31
36
32
4
15
13
26
6
26
......
+132 units
I have nearly gone as far as I am prepared to go on this bet, at this stage, but in fairness I wanted to add a few generic comments on the testing I have been doing.
As I cautioned, I sensed that there would be a move to a figure closer to +10% edge on the larger and broader grouping of session review.
Indeed after 20,000 spins the indicator is now at +10% edge, and that really serves my purpose because all I have laid out is a bare bone chassis of a bet, still in the workshop.
There are various overlays and professional level applications which can enhance this modest little bet. I have privately applied several and have turned a standard +3.5% result using the basic bet on several more difficult sessions to a more consistent and stable +30% edge. These show promise but must be rigorously checked.
I will just give a generic guide at this stage to try to help.
Keep sessions short so as to save your profit.
Flat stake.
stop-loss but don't chase losses. When its good its great, but when its bad it can re-trace needlessly.
The moving sum is a very good guide but not always correct, so be cautious. Beware false signals and if experienced stop quickly.
Target a sensible goal and stop when that has been achieved.
Any 5 numbers can be targeted.
There is so very much more I could say but am going to draw the line at this point. In due course there will be much more available.
So good fortune with your testing and application.
Best
XXVV
Adding a little more.
All the 20,000 test was a grind, and played out to the end of the session ( in review) - so play stopped for other reasons and NOT to the advantage of the 5 number target.
The principle that shines through though is that even in its most basic form with a simple start stop moving sum trigger, then the method has a +7 to +10% edge.
At its best it is brilliant.
Imagine what can be done with it where other powerful overlays are in place and smart money management is applied!!!
Remember the secret of winning at roulette is to read and understand that the random series outcomes are a series of short trends, swirls and eddies in the racing and sometimes placid current.
I use at least three overlays always.
Today live here was the transformed line of spacings of win outcomes...
4
11
10
15
5
4
9
5
4
2
1
.....
key was to stop there or sooner as the next was 14.
The winning sequence was flat staked +91 units in key 25 spins.
Key was waiting/ timing the attack and the retreat.
Hope you have enjoyed this work.
In testing it in its simplest form it may disappoint you but, as always, the real power lies in knowing the bet characteristics and applying smart overlays, well tested and tuned.
More soon. XXVV
I recall the late great Mr Square Roulette once stating that the most effective bet on the table is to back one number. The more you add as targets the more you diminish your short term trend gain attack efficiency.
The worst you can do is cover the board in chips.
By playing this way, as many do, you are actually adding to the house edge way over their nominal -2.7% edge.
It is with this in mind I have featured the 5 target bet as a sensible compromise to speed things along a bit, but even then you may encounter sleepy passages of nil action recommended.
Adding to this I also add the 9 number target.
It can also be played on the trigger action of a short moving sum.
Since writing of this I have fully incorporated such into my daily play, and as we know practice soon absorbs what at first might appear difficult.
It is fast, simple and effective, so will be writing on this soon.
The signals gained from the trigger to start on the 5 number bet, actioned on say zero as centre, has had formidable positive results, as long as you close off after say three consecutive wins, or you keep a tight rein on outlays and stop before the gains you have made are eroded.
Last night I had a record +162 unit result from about 60 spins with a short trend into zero as a reaction to earlier sleep. The trigger reveals these opportunities .However caution because there can also be false signals sometimes and you must always be on guard.
In due course I will reveal even more powerful and consistent true signals to attack.
With sensible self management the original goal of compounding +10% gains on your daily bank can be realised ( see the Common Sense thread).
Best
XXVV
It has been amusing to watch a recent television production that told the documentary story of a banker who went awry and stole from his trusting private investment clients over a 10 year period until publicity from the Bernard Madoff 'Ponzi Scheme' alerted one client to suspect phony financial statements. ( In this case the bank concerned repaid the $18M stolen money to the original investors).
There has been an ongoing stream of such schemes and even this week, another, involving over $300M going missing to victim investors. The sums just get bigger.
The Serious Fraud Office here advises anyone offering something that sounds too good to be true, that it almost certainly is untrue.
Reading my recent post where I talk about a daily compounding +10% bank rate, has alerted me that I may be put me on a suspect list - lol.
Perhaps some simple qualification and explanations are in order.
The principle of which I speak is true. The rate of return is available on a daily average of returns. It does not mean the player will win all sessions.
However we are NOT dealing with millions or hundreds of thousands of dollars. We are not at this level and we are not because we do not want to destroy the source of our gain.
Every casino will have a unique alert limit, and certainly a daily profit in excess of $10,000 would be tempting attention whether a boutique outfit or even a mega Vegas unit, especially on sequential days.
My suggestion is to simply run a trendline per casino for say 2 weeks, or 7-10 days in some cases, then move on. Your 'home ' casino you particularly do not want to upset.
Consider the annual income of professional blackjack players, and this is documented on several websites. Consider professional poker players. Consider professional golfers and tennis players. Research their incomes and their money management details where accessible.
In due course research your own money manager, but for good reason that may be best if it is you.
Keep it simple and keep it moving.
After the success of the 5 number bet, I wondered whether similar principles could be applied to 9 numbers.
Indeed they can.
On first trials using a 9 number set of numbers ( say the zero section) I have tested 1500 spins and the end result is a steadily rising +350 units. Flat staking but with caution that there can be reversals and false signals to attack and/ or pause.
My advice is to have a simple 6 step stop loss, and take profit after three consecutive wins. There are many successful sessions so when in an adverse one, stop after say two losses of stop loss. End the session. Move on.
The moving sum is the powerful tool to apply.
You can perhaps imagine how the nine number sets could be derived ( say wheel sections or table sections) and perhaps how they can also be run in tandem.
Lots of opportunities unfold for short term edge availability.
Best
XXVV
Quote from: XXVV on Nov 20, 11:28 PM 2012
My advice is to have a simple 6 step stop-loss, and take profit after three consecutive wins. There are many successful sessions so when in an adverse one, stop after say two losses of stop-loss. End the session. Move on.
Dear Richard
I appreciate your analytical pesentation of various topics in the forum which is very satisfying to me specially those related to sectors and m/a. your analysis of cluster theory in applicable format in sector bet remain an issue for me to pursue deeply as i have got a glimse only from the forum.
if you please kindly send me some materials related to it to quench my thirst.
also please, if you can drop few lines regarding the 'experiences' of required bankroll and its management, would be greatly appreciated.
grateful to you.
thanks a lot.
catalyst
N.B: this message is already sent to your email address.
@catalyst
thanks for your comments. I will go into more detail privately but can offer a few more overlay suggestions, quite simple to add to the efficiency of the simple and practical moving sum bet on 9 numbers.
This bet has different characteristics of course from the 5 number bet and the only real way to establish this knowledge is to do testing using distribution charts based on real live action results- not simulations.
I can save you some trouble by suggesting two further overalys to add for the 9 number bet anyway.
First ensure that if you get ahead by a double win, say +18 then +27 ( ie +45) and then you encounter a lengthy passage and have to spend say 4 x 9 getting nowhere. Then stop and take net profit at +9.
As you also have been advised to stop after 3 wins, that could be net +27 through to net +81.
Also if you achieve however quickly +27 and +27, take those two and close the mini session.
Or if you must carry on, do so at lesser unit value so as to make you win the most efficient possible but do not give back through Ecart swing, hard won profit.
Here is an example from a recent live game and it offers dramatic profit, as many do, so you can form your own conclusions. However adding a string of net profits is very satisfying, and more than makes up for the occasional session where you are stopped out twice in a row (-108 at worst).
You can see I am playing the 9 number bet just 6 times max then stop loss.
here is the dream example
.... and note I am playing the nine numbers centred around zero in this instance
20
15 *
31
23
13
19 *
22
7
27
3 *
17
2
17
36
31
30
22
27
34
25
8
27
8
10
33
34
0 *
24
27
32 *
7
11
15 *
0 *
27
9
0 *
8
32 *
35*
6
12 *
3 *
33
33
4 *
10
10
32 *
28
23
27
18
27
22
13
14
34
18
27
24
18
8
6
6
35 *
11
19 *
26*
23
32 *
35 *
28
8
15 *
23
11
26 *
34
23
24
0 *
23
22
26 *
32 *
27
1
18
7
19 *
22
2
17
18
0 *
5
33
2
33
30
8
33
35 *
12 *
1
4 *
------
I will post the key to unlock those opportunities tomorrow
In the meantime
Best
XXVV
Here is the code that transforms and unlocks the potential riches from the prior sequence - truly a very favourable series.
targetting 9 number set as marked...
2
4
4 10
17 25
3 24 signal to attack
3 23 hit and attack +9
1 7 hit and attack +27
3 7 hit and attack +9
2 6 hit and attack +18
1 5 hit and attack +27
2 5 hit and attack +18
1 4 hit and attack +27
3 6 hit and stop +9
3 7 pause
17 23 pause
2 22 attack
1 20 hit and attack +27
2 5 hit and attack +18
1 4 hit and attack +27
3 6 hit and wait +9
3 7 wait
4 10 wait
3 10 attack
1 8 attack +27
5 9 wait -9
5 11 wait
8 18 wait
1 14 attack
2 +18
enough
+251 units in 107 spins - one of the best sets played live
XXVV
In summary I have demonstrated in recent weeks how a simple core bet, say for example one target number, when accompanied by say from one, two or four neighbours on either side ( wheel position European Wheel), managed with say a moving sum trigger, and suitable 'overlay' controls, can be remarkably successful.
Ideally a large test sample of live data can be tested and the distribution of wins/ hits can be mapped so as to measure some 'bet characteristics'.
For each variation in bet extent ( number of targets) there will a change and the best solutions will be the most efficient and effective behaviour zone. This will tell you when to stop loss for example.
More on all this soon.
Best
XXVV
Adding to that opportunity for testing study and analysis, the various 'overlay' measures can be applied and the outcomes, differences in performance, can be measured over large samples, ideally 50,000 spins plus.
For example an overlay I would now further add is to stop a mini-session ( say 20-30 spin duration often) after a first stop-loss, rather than two stop losses.
It is an obvious smaller net loss, so easier to recover, but I have noticed with increasing testing that successful micro sessions, achieving three consecutive wins at least, start strongly.
The weaker starts often result in slow of modest loss, so best to stay clear. At the first sign of trouble steer clear, and an accurate 'reading' of a session is necessary, and the elimination of false signals is essential.
The ratio of strong starts to weaker starts needs to measured, but at this stage I see the ratio as a possible additional example of 80/20. Most are strong starts, but the few weak ones leading to twin loss (if not stopped prior) can really undermine all the great growth flat staking.
By reducing the stop-loss debit then the overall bet efficiency will improve.
At this stage we are dealing with the most basic of controls and influence on bet efficiency. Multiples of 1000 spin samples will need to be tested to measure the positive skew brought on by the moving sum filter.
There are other, probably stronger, ways of influencing the outcomes consistently, and these will be measured by live spin trials and a moving window of review of play, say day by day or week by week.
The moving window can compare expectation against actual outcomes.
Best
XXVV
There are several ideas I want to develop very soon on this thread and the other threads in variations.
Bet efficiency is our goal and every way we can notch further efficiency we can negate, then gradually introduce our own edge over the house.
This does not mean that you will win every session.
My personal ratio is about 80%, and from that I try to compound a string of winning sessions.
This will be further explained very soon but first here is significant seed thought where we can achieve better results ( efficiency increase being net gain in relation between higher returns with less expenditure).
I track, amongst other things 3 vertical columns from ongoing results measuring groups of 9 numbers in cluster theory.
I measure wheel sections, finales and streets ( from many others available).
When two out of these three provide a signal to attack, I then bet with higher likelihood of success.
Sometimes three align and thats even better.
More on this soon.
What I propose to do in coming days is to outline some proven methodologies which will in due course be published in the new web site being developed. The essence of my work is to help us all win more often and more regularly, avoiding risk behaviour such as 'gambling'.
Best XXVV
Greetings
Apologies for delay and also to the Moderator as I have had a technical issue with a server while in one location and all access to this site was blocked, possibly because of a technical error/ default some weeks back.
Am delighted to have this access clear now as am operating from my own facilities which screen out server errors.
So will be writing fully in coming days and fresh news on personal progress and goals.
Best
XXVV
Hello XV,
Good on you for coming back and kicking on.
Just wondering, are you still "experimenting ideas for pro play", or have you settled on a particular modus operandi?
Happy festive season.
Good Question and thanks.
Well, the answer is both kicking on with fresh exploration but also having found a fantastic and effective three fold strategy ( plus) spread to form 'trap bets'.
I have alluded a bit on this already but will enlarge detail step by step.
Basic warm number targets + overlays of trending clusters of streets/ sixlines, and or finales/ and or wheel section(s).
Then overlaying on top of this a 'focus strategy' which I will be outlining and providing examples for very soon also.
Always we search for greater 'efficiency' of bets, and smarter bets and now we can add, through direct testing on large samples, some remarkable ideas such as 'phase play', and improvements through triggers such as the very simple start/ stop nine number 'rolling sum' concept.
Now these techniques do not work every time, but more often than not, and at certain times, can work in concert, to give remarkable acceleration to earnings.
At other times you do well to limit the damage, and play with patience and restraint.
In order to answer critics who may say this is all very well but very vague, I will offer specific examples regularly over the coming month, here and elsewhere.
My goal is to assist us all.
Recall what I recently stated. When we achieve three consecutive coups using a trap bet with suitable loading, then this is a fantastic place/time to pause and take your profit! Its all to do with timing.
So the answers actually can be simple, but it is simplicity that has to be re-discovered after going through vast detail.
Best
XXVV
What we about to do is prepare a series of attack bets that feature, from 3 to 9 numbers, and in the examples given I will show you how several methods can be applied to extract a flow of profit from a series of three wins, forming a coup in a short mini session. That can be followed by several other short sessions to form a cluster of winning, or mainly winning outcomes ( overall net gain), forming the pearls on the string for a winning strategy.
Examples will follow in the days ahead...
Dublin just a few days ago
19
28
26
13
7
22
18
25
5
7 recommend that you qualify and review a set of numbers for ten or twenty spins
31
3
17
12
1
31
12
16
0
32
16
18
8
3
7
15
18
------ 18 is a winning bet because it completes a coup targeting repeats
6 now also 6 is the representative of a wheel section set that has been dormant
21 and is now alive, so 21 is a hit. We target trap nine numbers.
30
24 24 emerges as an example of a finale ending in 2/4 - target trap numbers so ending
24 24 hit finale . Note 24 is an example of a street type that had been dormant. the double hit
35 is an example that when dormant sets awaken they often reinforce each other. 35 hits also
17 17 is a hit after the 21 but no others follow in that target trap
12 12 hit finale, and is also a street hit target trapped.
14 14 hit finale and as the third in that series we close that action.
15
28
31
3
15
14 the prior 7 spins were all part of a wheel set cluster
24
24 is a winning coup because again a sub game targeting repeats has produced a winner
------
Trap bets were set for repeats, wheel section set (9 numbers), finale set numbers, and street set numbers. Overall this gave 7 hits in a 17 spin episode.
The traps were for example bets placed to catch the nine wheel set targets.
These were 21, 2, 25, 17, 34, 6, 27, 13, 36.
The trap was triggered when one of the set appeared (6) after a pre-determined passage of spins which was a sleep episode, 14 spins.
With the material outlined above there are three sets of numbers monitored, and repeats, ie 4 sets of data being reviewed after each spin. This is sufficient to set the traps and to eventually trigger the traps.
This was not an easy episode of play because the three traps for wheel, finale and streets were all triggered after an early simple trigger strategy failed. So this is actually what I term a recovery play strategy, or phase 2 if some react badly to 'recovery' play theory. lol.
The loss in the first phase is more than recovered/ restored/ balanced by two or more subsequent hits.
Should be plenty of food for thought there for those who are prepared to put in some effort.
Good Hunting XXVV
Here is a thought for a new bet sequence. I use the term 'sequence' as it relates to the 'new bet' thread, and refers to a series of three or more coups that can be strung together.
The core idea is to explore the notion of a dominant hemisphere on the table, or a dominant portion of the table in a short cycle of outcomes once the 37 spin cycle has been passed and within the 37 spins an average 24 numbers have appeared.
Where they are located on the wheel hemisphere, or say H or L on the table, may give a clue as to the dominance.
Then we look at progress , spin by spin to see whether the tendency is for a certain core group to 'clump', an early stage of clustering.
We can explore triggers, filters and traps to harvest a sequence of opportunities that may unfold here. My thanks to VLS for providing some seed thoughts here.
More soon.
This idea will be developed as a sub set of Clustering Theory, and can be titled initial clumping.
I am particularly interested in a wheel and/ or table short cycle formation sufficient to enable three consecutive wins, to satisfy a winning coup mini session.
More next week when all threads will be continued after travel is completed, and work on the new web site goes to another level.
Sorry to be absent for a while but travel + professional work had intruded.
The break is useful because now we can go off on a fresh tangent and the various threads may be able to develop and extend.
In essence recent thoughts have turned to the philosophy of The Art of War by Sun Tzu.
Essence of invincibility is enabled through perfect defense, and in roulette we can reverse what most do, and aim to minimise loss whenever in the heat of battle with the casino.
Key is to be able to step aside and not be drawn into having to play every spin, but instead to await opportunities that will have been trained for in massive preparation and study prior to play.
Some examples will soon follow, that use a smart bet and smart betting practice and wise management of both money and oneself.
Attack can be formidable and achieve greater probability of success by loading up size of attack ( unit size) depending on pre-determined triggers or cues. Also the attack needs to be in focus with a small number of targets strongly struck, and thus avoiding too great a spread and dilution of impact.
The military analogies can be very helpful and one of my most successful player colleagues is a student of military campaings both historical and contemporary.
More soon.