Hello Bayes,
I wanted to contact you concerning your thread "How Long Until A Repeat" You stated:
"Actually, it's only 1 in 10 if you're talking about a particular dozen, if you mean ANY of the dozens repeating then this happens once every 3 spins, on average".
I am trying to find out what the longest spin sequence is without ANY dozen repeating. If as you stated one of the three dozens repeats on average once every three spins (based on the law of the third) then this cannot be too high of a number. If it is 18 or 19 spins without a repeat then this would proportionally be the same as only one single number repeating in a sequence of 216 spins (6x3=18 for dozens, 6x36=216 for single #'s) If this is the case the law of the third will not have manifested in 6 cycles.
Hope this is not to confusing and incorrect for that matter.
Hope I may receive your insights. Could you also reply via email to olivier. matthew@yahoo. com
Thanks
Hi amk,
QuoteI am trying to find out what the longest spin sequence is without ANY dozen repeating.
It works out about the same as the longest spin sequence any particular dozen/column can go missing - about 30 spins.
[reveal= show proof]
Suppose you see a dozen hit (any dozen), what is the chance that the next dozen will be
other than that which just hit? it must be 24/37 (ignoring the zero).
The same is true for the next result (that the next outcome will not be the same as the one which just occurred), so the the probability p of n spins without a repeat is:
p = (24/37) âÅ"• (24/37) âÅ"• (24/37) ... (24/37)
nTake logs of both sides:
log(p) = nlog(24/37)
⇒ n = log(p)/log(24/37)
For 3 standard deviations, p = 0.001349
n = log(0.001349)/log(24/37) = 16
But it will go higher than this. If you take the z-score to be about 4.5 as the maximum then p = 0.000003. Repeating the calculation with this gives n = 30.
[/reveal]
Unfortunately the sequence analyzer can't give you a direct answer to questions like this involving repeats.
Hello Bayes,
Thank you for your reply. I just wanted to double check if I explained my question correctly.
I am not looking for how long it can take for any dozen to repeat. I am only looking at the amount of spins between one repeat and the next. 30 spins seems quite high. This would mean that in 30 spins there is not one repeat of a dozen. And with repeat I mean a dozen lands back to back.
Just wanted to double check but if you feel that 30 spins is the answer I will believe you.
Quote from: amk on Feb 11, 07:51 AM 2011
I am not looking for how long it can take for any dozen to repeat. I am only looking at the amount of spins between one repeat and the next. 30 spins seems quite high. This would mean that in 30 spins there is not one repeat of a dozen.
Hmm, not sure what your question is here amk. It depends on whether you're looking for the AVERAGE or the longest gap between repeats. I took it from your question that you wanted the longest (which is about 30 spins). This will happen very rarely, but the average is once every 3 spins.
This is for ANY dozen repeating.
Thanks again for your reply Bayes,
Hope not to bother you with these questions. Yes, I am looking for the longest stretch (spins) between one dozen repeating and the next. 30 is very high and as you mentioned very rare. The system I am working on allows me to go 18 spins without a dozen repeating. . . any dozen. The average as you say is 3.
How often does it go past 18 spins say in a sample of 1 million spins or less, if you have any data. I feel that this system could be very promising. Any insights would be great, from my research you have a very deep knowledge of such occurrences.
Quote from: amk on Feb 12, 07:56 AM 2011
How often does it go past 18 spins say in a sample of 1 million spins or less, if you have any data.
The chance of 18 spins with no repeaters is 0.04132%, which is 1 in 2,420. The formula for the streak length is (24/37)
n. To find the number of times it will happen in X spins, just multiply the probability by the number of spins. So for a sequence of 18 with no repeats, on average this will happen 0.0004132 âÅ"• 1000000 = 413 times in 1 million spins.
Hi
Is this topic about Repeating Dozens or sequence's
Well it doesn't matter. For any dozen to repeat there need to be a sequence.
In roulette like in William Shakespeare " To be or not to be"
There will be a repeat and then there will be a change to any of the prior. Even the sequence in this will change and repeat.
Here in lies THE MAGIC TO WINNING roulette. Its going to be or not to be.
TCD or not TCD
Hello Bayes,
Thanks again for your indepth reply. Really appreciate it.
I had another question and hope you might find it interesting.
What is the longest an even money bet has gone without a back to back repeat?
To clarify, what is the longest streak red or black for example has not repeated
example rbrbrbrbRR(brbrbrbrbrb)BB the RR and BB are the repeats (rbrbrb)=number of spins between a repeat
Hello Bayes,
My last question was concerning repeating even money bets not dozens. I have put the question below again. Will be one of my last questions if not the last.
Hello Bayes,
Thanks again for your indepth reply. Really appreciate it.
I had another question and hope you might find it interesting.
What is the longest an even money bet has gone without a back to back repeat?
To clarify, what is the longest streak red or black for example has not repeated
example rbrbrbrbRR(brbrbrbrbrb)BB the RR and BB are the repeats (rbrbrb)=number of spins between a repeat
Quote from: amk on Feb 15, 05:49 AM 2011
Hello Bayes,
My last question was concerning repeating even money bets not dozens. I have put the question below again. Will be one of my last questions if not the last.
Hello Bayes,
Thanks again for your indepth reply. Really appreciate it.
I had another question and hope you might find it interesting.
What is the longest an even money bet has gone without a back to back repeat?
To clarify, what is the longest streak red or black for example has not repeated
example rbrbrbrbRR(brbrbrbrbrb)BB the RR and BB are the repeats (rbrbrb)=number of spins between a repeat
If you change your perspective a littel when you observe and deal with the distribution - then things will become more clear.
First you can start with to forget about Red and Black and deal with Series and Singels which become to be the same thing - the only difference is that the timeline and distribution move one step up regarding your observations and give you the opportunities to use math and probability that matters.
Bayes can confirm the following and it is based upon the best work that has been done regarding even money bets and observation of the distribution.
One Series is one Series no matter length and is the same as one Red or one Black.
One single is one single no matter how many or if Red or Black.
Series has the value 1 and Singels has the value 1.
Now you can measuring true imbalance in any direction you want and use 3.0 as bench mark or 2.5 STD and you can pick to play against or with the flow or for correction and this will allow you to develop the very best regarding even money bets.
To illustrate this if you would like to capture two in a row or back to back distribution that you mention above I suggest you would use the following.
If you get one Series no matter length and a new Series following it like RRR BB then you have two Series in a row.
If the continue to chop as Series the imbalance of the distribution grow and if you would receive 12 or 14 series in a row with out any singels present you are above 2.5 and 3.0 STD.
You also should have a minimum window for amount of events - in this case Series - before any attempt to attack and play against or with the flow or for correction.
Example RRR BBB are here you would aim for two blacks and if not you will hit back to back if we assume the Series don't continue to chop.
Example RRR BBB are BB or RRR BBB are B are which will result in win win or win lose.
Then advance would be if your staking plan start from a 2 unit bet size with a fibo progression then both cases will end up with a nice profit which would be +3 units or +1 unit as you would lower your second bet on a win which will generate a win win situation with both back to back or straight hit and even allow you the option to let it ride to capture large strings of zick zack or one side imbalance like RRRR B RRRR.
If a loss you would step up on the letter and on a win go back two steps on the fibo latter - just suggestion.
Any question just feel free to ask.
And your question with world history as reference is 5.25 STD at Monty Carlo and the negative expectation that would be realistic is 32 singels in a row or 32 series in a row as your bench mark.
But to attempt to develop a method you need to use periodic events or correction is the only options that exist.
Hello Bayes,
The data found at winn maxx is amazing concerning "statistics for even money chances". Always thought (had a hunch) that there were much more series than singles. May I ask what you think about the win maxx systems? Which one would you advise?
Hello Ego,
Thank you very much for your indepth reply concerning even money chances, amazing. Are you familair with win maxx? Do you have any insights into there systems and which one is the best? Their data for even money chances is really indepth and they must have great knowledge for developing systems.
Hello Ego,
Thank you very much for your indepth reply concerning even money chances, amazing. Are you familair with win maxx? Do you have any insights into there systems and which one is the best? Their data for even money chances is really indepth and they must have great knowledge for developing systems.
Hello Ego,
I had a question. On average, after how many spins does a street repeat back to back?
Might you have any insights or data?
Hope I may hear from you.