Ultimate Even Chance Progression:
If lose Bet Amount If win
-1 1 (x1) +1
-3 2 +1
-7 4 +1
-15 8 +1
-21 6 (x2) +3
-29 8 +3
-39 10 +1
-52 13 0
-70 18 +2
-81 11 (x3) +7
-93 12 +3
-107 14 +5
-123 16 +5
-141 18 +3
-162 21 +6
-186 24 +6
-213 27 +3
-228 15 (x4) +12
-244 16 +12
-261 17 +11
-279 18 +9
-298 19 +6
-318 20 +2
-340 22 +12
-363 23 +5
-388 25 +12
-414 26 +2
-442 28 +6
-472 30 +8
We need about 450 unit bank.
This progression is based on starting with a mini-martingale 1-2-4-8. Since we win most of our bets in the first 4 attempts, this will win us most of our units.
If we happen to lose 4 times in a row, we start betting let-it-ride 1 time. We drop back from an 8 unit loss to a 6 unit bet because we are -15 units after losing 1-2-4-8. If we win a 6 unit bet, we will have 12 units to let-it-ride. If we win this let-it-ride bet, we will have 24 units on the table minus the 6 we bet = +18 units less the 15 already lost = +3 units and we start over again with 1 unit bet.
We have 5 chances to win at a let-it-ride 2X before we go to a let-it-ride 3x series. And if we don't win in the 3 time let-it-ride series, we go to the 4X let-it-ride series.
All we are trying to do is get a streak of wins in a row to recover previous losses and reach a new high. Then we continue betting at the 1-2-4-8 level.
George :thumbsup:
this is so cool
looks unbeatable even for straight betting black
thx george
;)
Very cool, indeed.
Gotta check this one out.
Thanks, George.
I've been tinkering around with this bet progression. I haven't lost a full progression yet. I must admit that if I get too far along in the progression, I tend to jump back to the left to smaller bets.
If you keep a copy of the chart I made, you can use conscious decisions to if things start getting too wild. If you are betting say 22 in the 4X category and you win a couple fo let-it-rides and you find yourself at -186 from your highest bank, you can always drop back to betting 24 in the 3X category.
You can use a lot of creativity with this.
You can always create your own progression. This is just an idea. I only picked these stages to show the idea.
You could start with 1-2-4-8-16. The next bet would be 11 let-it-ride would look like this:
11 Win = 22 Win = 44-11=33-31 (1+2+4+8+16=31) = +2 Start over with 1-2-4-8-16.
My whole idea is to us a limited marty of 3 or 4 or 5 or even 6 steps. Most of the time we will be winning withing our limited marty and not even have to go to the let-it-ride sections. We can stay in the 2X area longer and the 3X longer etc... We can use a 1000 unit bank and on a system like pattern 4, we should be able to win forever.
Anyway, I think it's worth having in your arsenal of progression ideas.
GLC
GLC - this may be exactly what i need, however im really confused. I have a good EC system but the progression fails me.
Can you please explain this a little more? I get the first martingale part but I dont understand the let it ride part.
Thanks heaps.
Thanks for that, ill give it a try!
hi GLC, this is a thing of beauty!! :thumbsup:
This is really nice :)
In the 4x level it might get a bit scary though!!
Best Regards
Quote from: Smee on Jun 13, 05:27 AM 2011
GLC - this may be exactly what I need, however I'm really confused. I have a good EC system but the progression fails me.
Can you please explain this a little more? I get the first martingale part but I don't understand the let it ride part.
Thanks heaps.
Sorry to take so long to get back to you Smee but I'm on vacation and can only log on in the evening.
I knew the progression was a little complicated but I didn't want to get too detailed unless someone really wanted me to.
So, everybody should understand the first 4 bets because they are just a 4 step regular martingale. Like I said, this will catch most of the wins in any even chance system that's worth playing.
If/when you lose 4 bets, you will have lost 15 units. There are numerous ways we can go at this point.
We could just take the loss and start over with 1-2-4-8 and hope that our bet selection wins enough for all the 1 unit wins to stay ahead of the 15 unit losses. Takes a really strong bet selection for this. I'm not sure anybody has found it yet.
We could go to a larger marty, say 3-6-12-24. Play until we win 5 times which will recover all 15 lost units. This adds an increased element of danger because if we happen to lose at 3-6-12-24 before we recover the 15 lost units, we go 45 units into the hole on top of any non-recovered units.
We could play until we win 3 times which will recover 9 of the 15 lost units. Then drop back to 1-2-4-8 to recover the rest of them. This is not a bad compromise.
There are numerous other possibilities I won't go into for the sake of brevity.
With this progression, I have elected to use a boffins or let-it-ride method. This means that we bet, in this case, 6 units. If we win, we have 12 units on the table, so we leave all 12 units for the next bet. If we win, we have 24 units on the table. Six of those units are our original bet which leaves 18 units won. If we subtract the 15 units we lost in our first 4 bets, we find that we are +3 units so we can start over again with our 1-2-4-8 martingale.
If we lose either the 6 unit bet or if we win and then lose the 12 unit bet, we must move to the next level which is 8 units. We are now -15 from our 1-2-4-8 marty plus 6 units from our first recovery bet which equals 21 units in the hole.
If we bet 8 units and if we win, we leave the 16 units for the next bet and win that one also, we will have 32 units on the table less the original 8 unit bet -21 previously lost units equals -29. We have 32 -29 = +3 units. Start over at 1-2-4-8.
As you can see, we have 6-8-10-13 & 18 unit bets at the 2 times level. If we lose all 5 bets at this level, instead of continuing to increase the size of our bets so that a single let-it-ride will make us whole, which will escalate our bets too quickly, we move to the 3 times let-it-ride level.
This first bet at the 3 times level is 11 units. We bet 11 units, if we win we have 22 units on the table. We leave all 22 units on the table for the next bet, if we win this we have 44 units on the table, we leave all 44 units on the table for the next bet, if we win this bet we will have 88 units on the table. 11 units are our original bet and 77 units are units we won from the casino. We are down 70 units (1-2-4-8-6-8-10-13-18=70). Subtract that from our 77 units won and we are +7 units and can start over at 1-2-4-8.
At the 4X level we just bet 4 times before full recovery. Our original bet and 3 let-it-ride bets.
Any time we win the full number of bets, we will be at a new high bank and can start over at 1-2-4-8.
There is nothing sacred about this progression. It can be adjusted to suit you risk quotient. You can bet 1-2-4-8-16 for your marty. Then just adjust the bet sizes at 2X.
You can bet more times or less times at each level.
Remember when betting at the 3x or 4x level. If you win say 3 times at 15 that's 15+15=30+30=60+60=120. Now you have another bet of 120 to fully recover. You could not bet the 120 unit bet, rather drop back down your progression to a level where you only have 120 units to recover and begin betting at that level. This keeps your bets from escalating too rapidly on a very poor run.
A word of caution. You are hoping for 2 then 3 then 4 wins in a row. Test this progression thoroughly so you know what the risks are. You can and probably will at some point lose a full progression. You must be prepared to risk as many units as are necessary to insure maximum chance to recover. I have tested this on the author's system of betting Same/Opposite/Same/Opposite etc... with excellent results. I have yet to go beyond the 14 units bet in the 3X level.
Having said that, I think this offers us a lot of control over our bet sizes. And, we can recover rather quickly compared to other bet progressions.
Test it and tell me what you think. We're in this together and any and all feedback is crucial for all of us to know fully what the risks are when we put hard earned money on the table.
LoL to all,
George
Well I tested it over 65 Baccarat shoes. It gave 561.95 units after commission.
It did go once to the last level of 30 units x4 though :ooh:
Still if it had busted there it would have given some 50 units profit.
Best Regards
hi mogwai, you didn't happen to keep any record of on which levels you won did you?
or do you know roughly how many times you had to go to x3, x4 levels?
cheers
Just in case a newbie is looking at this bet progression, I want to clarify that when I say let-it-ride, I don't mean that you have to bet the very next spin. If you are using a trigger system, you let-it-ride on your next betting opportunity, not necessarily on your next spin.
hey George, how are you?
Can i ask you also, as the thread-starter for this, have you had good records of success with it?
I've tried it over the last few days & have a profit of 280 units so far.. I've hit the 5th level 4 times, 6th level twice, & 9th level once.
I'm trying to incorporate it into an idea I had with the dozens but couldn't make work, but now your progression seems to fit the bill..
Well I do not have detailed records but it only once hit the 4th level, in the case I mentioned which almost busted.
And also 3-4 times in the 3rd level, only once I think to the last bet, the others up to the middle bets.
Best Regards
I'm sorry to say that I don't have detailed records for this bet progression.
I often post ideas on the forum so I don't lose them. I can always find them here with the search feature.
Also, this gives others the chance to have a brilliant idea triggered, possibly, by one of my mediocre ideas.
I have tested this progression a fair amount but not enough to have ever lost the whole progression as posted above.
I can guarantee that it will eventually lose! None of these progressions are lose-proof.
But, this progression does hold up pretty well.
What I am trying to do is come up with different progressions that may work better with certain systems than other progressions do.
Determining which progression works best with your bet selection method takes a lot of work. To be honest, you may determine that a certain progression fits your system to a tee and then all of a sudden it falls flat because the spins you play can be so different over the coarse of time that there is no one progression that works always.
A good way to test a bet progression against your system is to write out a session with your system as (w)ins and (l) like this wwllwlllwwlwl:l:lllwwll:wlwwl:wlllwlwwlllww and then see how different progressions would have done had you used them on that series.
Test enough series this way, and 1 or 2 progressions should start rising to the top and eventually you should have the one you like the most. That's about the best way to pick a progression.
It has been pointed out somewhere else on this forum that some progressions do work better than others in certain situations. For example the following loses to every progression except a 9 step martingale. LLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLW etc...
So, given that we can come up with a w/l sequence that only 1 progression can survive with, it does mean that there are some progressions that do better with a certain w/l sequence, but not necessarily a specific bet selection method. That's because any bet selection method may produce the above w/l sequence.
This marrying a perfect bet progression to a specific bet selection method is not an easy task and in fact there may not be any such thing.
I know this may not have helped much. But, I think it represents reality.
The most important thing to remember is that no bet progression will guarantee that a specific bet selection method will never lose.
And finally, this bet progression becomes more and more volatile the further into it you get. I think it's almost imperative that you exercise the options to not place the last bet for a full recovery at the 3X and 4X levels, but rather drop back 4 or 5 levels, what ever is appropriate, to give yourself more opportunities to recover gradually.
Luck to all,
GLC
Cheers GLC....I really appreciate your explanation - crystal clear! - and im going to give it a go with my system....if it works out i will post results!
I found this so interesting that I ran it through my last 108 bac shoes using the following criteria:
1. Only play Player.
2. Stop at +10.
3. Start at the beginning of a shoe on the first hand dealt.
4. Bankroll is 472 units.
5. Play the progression exactly as stated on this thread.
Results:
Win percentage: 100.0%
Total shoes played: 108
Shoe average per shoe Net: 10.2
Total wins: 1099.0
Better than "not bad" ......
I also like the flexibility, George. Very nice. Thank you.
George, I am not trying to look too smart, but my honest opinion is: being very determined and dedicated person, while trying to find the best progression, you r wasting your time (and time is money). Progression is not going to win the game, but maybe (not sure) a good bet selection (not consistent but rather combinations of different bet selections) can. It doesn't matter how you bet it, flat or use mild progression (not long one!), you may win (or lose) the game. but concentrating on progression doesn't make any sense. And long progression WILL make things much worse on a long run.
just my 2 cents.
Quote from: iggiv on Jun 21, 08:43 PM 2011
George, I am not trying to look too smart, but my honest opinion is: being very determined and dedicated person, while trying to find the best progression, you're wasting your time (and time is money). Progression is not going to win the game, but maybe (not sure) a good bet selection (not consistent but rather combinations of different bet selections) can. It doesn't matter how you bet it, flat or use mild progression (not long one!), you may win (or lose) the game. but concentrating on progression doesn't make any sense. And long progression WILL make things much worse on a long run.
just my 2 cents.
Dear Iggiv,
I appreciate where you're coming from. Of course you are correct. I could say the same thing about bet selection methods. What I am trying to do with my progression exercises is marry them with a bet selection method that results in a combination that is very difficult to lose with. Not impossible, but difficult. This particular progression does get a little scary some time and I know that it will fail occasionally, but in the mean time, I might get lucky and win a few units with it. I like it better than just scattering chips around the table.
Also, it's good for old guys like me to exercise our brains on something that we find interesting. I'm exercising my brain a lot with roulette. I enjoy it and am continuing to win. Not a lot, because I'm only playing on a 25 cent airball machine, but like Flatino said, it's enough for smokes and bread.
As long as we all play with caution and don't lose money we can't afford to lose, let's have some fun. You never know what might happen the next time you sit down at the wheel.
GLC
" I could say the same thing about bet selection methods. "
George, I don't think this is the same. a few flat bet selections combined can work with much more success. more of them combined -- more chances for success.
as about progression -- yes, it is difficult to lose, but when you do, you lose too much, which makes it not worth it. Yes, you may get lucky, but there are more chances that you may get lucky with a few bet selections combined. As many as possible. and in this forum You can find lots of them. that one could be a real winner I think. especially when you shuffle them different ways (don't use them in the same order as roulette is gonna kill this kind of game too)
Quote from: iggiv on Jun 21, 11:17 PM 2011
" I could say the same thing about bet selection methods. "
George, I don't think this is the same. a few flat bet selections combined can work with much more success. more of them combined -- more chances for success.
From a purely mathematical point of view, there is no advantage in having multiple bet selections, because each spin is independent. Even with 1000 bet selections you're still left with the problem of
when a particular bet selection should be used, and if you can get that right with
one BS, why do you need more?
In fact the phrase 'multiple bet selection' doesn't mean anything different from bet selection (singular) because on each spin you're selecting a bet and the wheel doesn't know whether your choice is from 1 BS or 1000.
this might be a good system for PATTERN 4, the main even system on the boards
good for baccarat
Quote from: Bayes on Jun 22, 02:56 AM 2011
From a purely mathematical point of view, there is no advantage in having multiple bet selections, because each spin is independent. Even with 1000 bet selections you're still left with the problem of when a particular bet selection should be used, and if you can get that right with one BS, why do you need more?
In fact the phrase 'multiple bet selection' doesn't mean anything different from bet selection (singular) because on each spin you're selecting a bet and the wheel doesn't know whether your choice is from 1 BS or 1000.
I couldn't agree more. The only thing we play are the odds of the bet selection. and this is the only way to evaluate if one has more favorable odds against any other.
Many of the bet selections i see are based upon speculation so i must agree the player is tied to the progression he uses.
Quote from: Halba1 on Jun 22, 03:55 AM 2011
This might be a good system for PATTERN 4, the main even system on the boards
good for baccarat
that is a good example. as for what i got from that system it purposes playing against a pattern of three outcomes.
We can all see the odds 2*2*2 -so we have 8 possible combinations.
we try to avoid 1 and win on 7 of them
the question is: 1) how to capture it?
2) using a progression to get 7/8 odds is any different from making 3 consecutive attempts for 1/2 odds?
nice topic here.
I suppose Ego, Gizmotron and Carpanta will interact with us soon
Ego will probably say one must use present change
link:://rouletteforum.cc/roulette-and-gambling-framework/nothing-beats-this-random-walk-no-matter-what-bet-selection-you-use/ (link:://rouletteforum.cc/roulette-and-gambling-framework/nothing-beats-this-random-walk-no-matter-what-bet-selection-you-use/)
Quote from: Bayes on Jun 22, 02:56 AM 2011
From a purely mathematical point of view, there is no advantage in having multiple bet selections, because each spin is independent. Even with 1000 bet selections you're still left with the problem of when a particular bet selection should be used, and if you can get that right with one BS, why do you need more?
In fact the phrase 'multiple bet selection' doesn't mean anything different from bet selection (singular) because on each spin you're selecting a bet and the wheel doesn't know whether your choice is from 1 BS or 1000.
My friend, practically math is not always answer in roulette. I know for sure that some people win in a long run using multiple bet selections.
and this answer is also to ZeroBlue.
(maybe if u were ZeroGreen, u would agree with me)
:twisted:
Quote from: iggiv on Jun 22, 08:38 AM 2011
My friend, practically math is not always answer in roulette. I know for sure that some people win in a long run using multiple bet selections.
and this answer is also to ZeroBlue.
(maybe if you ZeroGreen, you agree with me)
:twisted:
Victor, here my post a couple of words were eaten by this forum's racoon: (
were and
would).
i guess this is not an accident, something is screwed up with coding)
Quote from: iggiv on Jun 22, 08:47 AM 2011
Victor, here my post a couple of words were eaten by this forum's racoon: (were and would).
i guess this is not an accident, something is screwed up with coding)
and here
in was eaten
One additional factor is that over the course of 10,000 placed bets whether they are flat bets or a 5 step mini martingale, we will be at about the same point. As we all know, in the long run bet progressions don't compensate for a losing bet selection. The graphs look very different but get us to the same place. A flat bet graph is a line with very little undulations whereas a 5 step mini marty looks like the teeth of a cross-cut saw. If you were to draw a straight line through the undulations, they would be on the same slant either up or down depending on the bet selection.
I can't say that there are no exceptions to the above, that's why we keep looking.
George
In case anybody is interested, I have worked out a progression that starts with a six step labby instead of four steps. I have tweaked the labby so that we don't win 1 unit on each win. With this progression, we have to lose 6 in a row before we begin our recovery mode.
By the way, this progression loses to the horror session #3 posted by Bayes. You will find it in my topic "And you thought you knew about Oscar".
1 +1
2 +1
4 +1
7 0
13 -1
25 -2
------------
18 2X
24
32
42
56
-------------
32 3X
37
42
48
55
--------------
30 4X
32
34
36
38
--------------
20 5X
21
21
22
23
24
24
25
26
27
28
29
29
30
31
32
This is a pretty aggressive progression, but the beauty of it is that we give ourselves 6 chance to win once; 5 chances to win 2-in-a-row; 5 chances to win 3-in-a-row; 5 chances to win 4-in-a-row and 16 chances to win 5-in-a-row.
If you lose the whole progression you will lose 1020 units. That' a big chunk. The question is the one we always have, will it win enough more than it loses to make it worth playing?
George