This is the experiment - i find the core or the pure sequence witch has no existing imbalance using various of dimensions observing the distribution.
I wondering how many 300 trails sessions i can play each trail flat betting with out once being up at least plus 1 unit - that is the experiment.
RNG session 1.
(link:://i40.tinypic.com/bg5lpu.png)
(link:://i42.tinypic.com/344cxh4.png)
Method???
None.Advantage of En Prison rules,experience,patience,
wheel acquaintance and know how.
1.35% is not much being house edge - i recon it one of the lowest you can find.
Now i am close to hit 100 units with 1000 placed bets :twisted: that is around a 2.5 STD pretty good ...
I cant remember any one succed doing just that in public ...
RNG Session 2
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/1zl6hzc.png)
(link:://i40.tinypic.com/2112j43.png)
Explanation - there is no triggers or past previous results using this method.
I just start with black and see what coming up next and catch every existing tendency towards imbalance - to do that you have to know how randomness flow or unfold.
I see it like this that my ant is stronger the randomness ant.
Sure there will be some kind of fluctuation witch will create a losing wave - utopia to say anything else.
But this topic is interesting because if you can pick any table and start at any point with 20 units and win 10 sessions over and over again with humble win target.
Then there is many various MM and capitalizing strategy witch can make it a real consistent winner or at least improve the overall strategy.
Quote from: vile on Mar 15, 06:11 PM 2012
Method???
None.Advantage of En Prison rules,experience,patience,
wheel acquaintance and know how.
doesn't tell me much, i know guys like you i have seen them all over the forums.SECRET HA :twisted:
Quote from: warrior on Mar 15, 11:18 PM 2012
doesn't tell me much, i know guys like you i have seen them all over the forums.SECRET HA :twisted:
Me to - i see this guys all over forums.
During many years at gambling forums i been so tired of all does claims that you can outguess 50/50 and win flat betting - witch should be impossible - my opinion.
But then i one day find a new angel to approach the game 50/50 witch made me exited - witch has nothing to do with outguess 50/50 - but i notice one thing X wrote witch was similar towards what i experimented with and found out that not all but many points was actually accurate.
Then by accident i skip all previous result, triggers and patterns - just made one random walk out of all my knowledge i have regarding randomness and that is the result you see above.
If it continues being positive - witch would mean that i would win at least plus 1 or have peaks at 40 to 45 units flat betting with 300 placed bets - i will then for sure give it to my friend Bayes to test the s h i t out of it - because i never make empty claims - like all does trolls you see at gambling forums.
Today it is early morning, will soon take my kid to school and walk the dogs.
After that i will run 2 to 3 more simulations.
It is sad i will never use this as i am not Roulette System player - but its fun do.
And as i already know how to win and have a small edge i still regard this as one fun experiment.
Cheers
You're de champ Lucky Strike! :thumbsup:
Don't you worry about all does trolls witch hang around dease forums. :xd:
What do i know now - first i can place 1000 bets and obtain 100 units flat betting.
What do i know now - i can hit 2.5 to 3.5 STD flat betting.
What do i know now - that it is utopia to believe that you allways can win.
What do i know now - well i have never seen any public random walk that beat this one.
The experiment continues.
1. I will run 4 to 5 more 300 sessions just to observe the results.
2. I will test this method using the original C h a r l e s - G u e t t i n g Progression.
3. I will add win target and stop-loss.
4. I will add capitalizing strategy.
5. I will try trading or trending with out play every trail.
At last i will simulate does points with 3000 to 5000 placed bets to get one overall picture.
RNG session 3
(link:://i42.tinypic.com/r1hbh3.png)
(link:://i40.tinypic.com/kdlw7a.png)
RNG session 4
(link:://i39.tinypic.com/35de1si.png)
(link:://i43.tinypic.com/b3ofvo.png)
RNG session 5
(link:://i43.tinypic.com/21176ub.png)
(link:://i44.tinypic.com/34ryu76.png)
-
The Guetting Progression is most effectful in connection with a good tendency march witch i have - See above.
-
The Guetting Progression is a four stage gain progression:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/219xxjo.gif)
After two consecutive won bets in one stage the progression moves on to the next higher unit bet in that stage:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/izyw3s.gif)
After the loss of a bet, the Guetting Progrssion steps down to the first unit size in the next lower stage, therefore down to 4, 1.5 or 1, depending, in which stage the bet was lost.
This loss can occur:
1.) if immediately after two consecutive won bets the next higher bet is lost
2.) if 2 consecutive losses appear.
(link:://i43.tinypic.com/sxc40i.gif)
(link:://i44.tinypic.com/o0e03l.gif)
In the next table we will compare flat betting and three well known progressions ( the Martingale, the d´Alembert and the Contre dÃlembert ) with the Guetting Progression:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/2mwyru9.gif)
Note ...
In real life to place 1.5 units - some one can play High/Low and place 0.20 on three lines witch become 0.60 - that would be 1.6 units if the base bet is 10 Euro for even money position and 2 Euro for straight up.
Quote from: ego on Mar 16, 04:53 AM 2012
-
The Guetting Progression is most effectful in connection with a good tendency march witch i have - See above.
-
The Guetting Progression is a four stage gain progression:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/219xxjo.gif)
After two consecutive won bets in one stage the progression moves on to the next higher unit bet in that stage:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/izyw3s.gif)
After the loss of a bet, the Guetting progression steps down to the first unit size in the next lower stage, therefore down to 4, 1.5 or 1, depending, in which stage the bet was lost.
This loss can occur:
1.) if immediately after two consecutive won bets the next higher bet is lost
2.) if 2 consecutive losses appear.
(link:://i43.tinypic.com/sxc40i.gif)
(link:://i44.tinypic.com/o0e03l.gif)
In the next table we will compare flat betting and three well known progressions ( the Martingale, the d´Alembert and the Contre dÃlembert ) with the Guetting Progression:
(link:://i41.tinypic.com/2mwyru9.gif)
Note ...
In real life to place 1.5 units - some one can play High/Low and place 0.20 on three lines witch become 0.60 - that would be 1.6 units if the base bet is 10 Euro for even money position and 2 Euro for straight up.
Hello Ego
You lost me long time ago O0
Can you make your posts little bit more user friendly?
Regards
What do you mean user friendly - any one with some experience would understand the post you quote.
Study and read about Guetting or search internet if you can not follow.
And for the rest of the experiment - just ask with clear and specific question - then i can provide you with the right answer.
All you see is winnings and 20 to 30% fluctuation - that is all - flat betting.
Thanks for taking the time to post your valuable information Ego.
You make great contributions.
I feel I should do more but do the best I can.
Quote from: amk on Mar 16, 12:55 PM 2012
Thanks for taking the time to post your valuable information Ego.
You make great contributions.
I feel I should do more but do the best I can.
Well if i could explain the march or random walk clear as water - i would.
I don't play even money bets or roulette systems.
I have three random walks witch obtain the same results - winning around 15 to 45 units flat betting placing 300 bets with 20 to 30% fluctation.
Now i know how to place 1000 bets and obtain 100 units and you don't need to play every trail doing so - it just made the challange more difficult or at least it feels that way as in the long run there should be no difference.
When you say that you have 3 random walks that provide you width these results ..... Does that mean you play a set pattern based on what has happened, or does it not have anything to do with set patterns
Quote from: Big EZ on Mar 18, 10:43 PM 2012
When you say that you have 3 random walks that provide you width these results ..... Does that mean you play a set pattern based on what has happened, or does it not have anything to do with set patterns
Tricky question - i would say no past result is used - but in the same time there exist the minimum formations of witch has no existing balance present - so there is more that you know how the minimum present state looks like witch is 100% pure hovering around the "mean" or "average" with no existing imbalance towards any direction - so the conclusion is that you use the law of series as dimension 1 with the observation of present states as dimension 2 in the same time.
Then you just follow the flow with out betting aginst it and will catch everything above the "mean" or "average" flat betting.
The challange would be to find entering points and exist points with positive progression.
As i dont know how to coup with 20 to 30 % drawdowns or fluctation.
Point is i never see any one succed placing 1000 bets playing every trail and gain 100 units.
But as i state above every system has it weak spot as it would be utopi to state that postive expectaion exist as the game it self has negative expectation.
Basically we "Only" lose our bet when the two opposed states,
in the case Series of Singles and Series of Series,
appear back to back. In another words, we bet against two series being followed by two singles and the opposite also.
This fact creates an hO_Overing state between them that is impossible to predict due to the random length of the series.
Fluctuation is due to this mostly. The only thing to do is apply a money management that could try to deal with this negative expectation.
=====================
So what is the minimum present state of the distribution?
example:
RRR BBB R B(by this point we already have a hovering state) and what comes after this is what we speculate on.
so from this point on we only can allow a series to form becoming RRR BBB R BB
or we should observe
RRR B R(hovering state here, as we don't know the future) so from this point on we only can allow a series to form becoming RRR B RR
or
Can we allow RRR B R as long as prior to this a single had happen?
being
B RRR B R BBB and only then B RRR B R BBB R<-- only allow this one to be a single?
i guess the answer is both.
Bottom-line for me is that if one isolates the cases that may happen it is not hard to grasp, but when practicing with the unfolding of events things get confusing.
I wonder if you coded this ego?
Very nice observations on random behavior.
thanks again for exposing this and for all the clarifications that you give on a silver plate.
Cheers
Doubt is what is confusing is the minimum formations
i have
BBB RRR B R_ i should not bet here against a single?
i guess not
I Should i wait for
BBB RRR B RR B_and here bet for another serie to form
and if i lose and it is a single
BBB RRR B RR B R_bet here for a serie again.
XX
OX
<-bet here for X if lost
XX
OX
O<-bet here for X
suppose we loose and 3 states appear
XX
OX
OO
now we continue playing to follow last 2 previous?
against XX?
I am having serious difficulties practicing this bet.
May you please check this spins so i can check if our results collide?
[reveal]25
12
6
27
22
19
28
34
26
16
9
22
4
33
26
14
13
9
20
21
16
27
29
31
7
13
2
6
34
1
12
17
7
14
31
1
26
15
28
20
6
30
6
14
30
20
25
10
22
32
32
23
4
9
28
24
5
17
16
7
20
3
26
18
29
9
21
24
7
13
27
28
16
13
15
6
11
14
20
2
many thx[/reveal]
The basic is that you follow the two states that is present.
The last previos state and the current state.
That is random walk 1 out of 3.
The minimum formation is based upon follow the last and back to back.
With out using the strike distribution or the formations individual strike lenght.
Its about capture 3 events out of 4.
XXX
XXO
XOX
XOO
Where the formation XOO is losing formation - two bets.
So the random walk 1 capture follow the last and back to back.
Then when you end up with the losing formation XOO - then there exist two possibilitys.
BB RRR BRR The previos state is two series that chop and current state is hovering.
RBR BB RBB The previos state is series of singels and the current state is hovering.
First state you would play for a serie to chop and if a loss you would aim for hovering state.
Two bets.
Secound state you would only have to place one singel bet to capture one of the two states.
That mean you would play for a singel to apper after the first change.
One bet.
That way you would follow the random flow and how it unfold.
You would aim for repeats using two states.
And when the third losing state appers you would follow that state and the previos one.
Random walk 2 means that you play every trail and follow every bet and formation so you capture the strike distribution.
Then the algorithm for the betting behavior change a littel to the previos explination above as you fall into two dimensions.
Random walk 3 i dont yet know how to explain in writing.
Strike distribution ...
So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO
The basic i told you about is that you can use one random walk 1 to just pin point out series and signels with out using strike distribution playing every trail or you could use random walk 2 and capture the strike distribution.
Random walk 2 would use bouth and pin point out all possibilitys against XOO and in the same time use strike distribution - the lenght of formations.
Quote from: ego on Apr 18, 01:54 AM 2012
The basic is that you follow the two states that is present.
The last previos state and the current state.
That is random walk 1 out of 3.
The minimum formation is based upon follow the last and back to back.
With out using the strike distribution or the formations individual strike length.
Its about capture 3 events out of 4.
XXX
XXO
XOX
XOO
Where the formation XOO is losing formation - two bets.
So the random walk 1 capture follow the last and back to back.
Then when you end up with the losing formation XOO - then there exist two possibilitys.
BB RRR BRR The previos state is two series that chop and current state is hovering.
RBR BB RBB The previos state is series of singels and the current state is hovering.
First state you would play for a serie to chop and if a loss you would aim for hovering state.
Two bets.
Secound state you would only have to place one single bet to capture one of the two states.
That mean you would play for a single to apper after the first change.
One bet.
That way you would follow the random flow and how it unfold.
You would aim for repeats using two states.
And when the third losing state appers you would follow that state and the previos one.
Random walk 2 means that you play every trail and follow every bet and formation so you capture the strike distribution.
Then the algorithm for the betting behavior change a littel to the previos explination above as you fall into two dimensions.
Random walk 3 i don't yet know how to explain in writing.
Strike distribution ...
So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO
The basic i told you about is that you can use one random walk 1 to just pin point out series and signels with out using strike distribution playing every trail or you could use random walk 2 and capture the strike distribution.
Random walk 2 would use bouth and pin point out all possibilitys against XOO and in the same time use strike distribution - the length of formations.
The best way to following the random flow and understand how the three states repeat and not repeat - imbalance or one show each is to use the dozen strategy i explain below.You bet against every state not to repeat and use the signs L for Loss and W for Win to get the LW-Registry charts - that way you can observe and make your own conclusion if there is better to follow the random flow or bet against the random flow.That way you can create your own entering and exit points or triggers.
How i would out guess or follow the flow using three states and follow the last previos state and the current state
[/b]RRRBBRBB
Two states above ...RRRBB The last previos state
BBRBB The current stateTwo series that chop and one hovering state - then i would bet for two series to chop and if a loss i would bet that the last current state would continue to hovering.If a loss then all three state would have one show each.
RRRBBRBBRBRIf i would have one hoveing state and one series of singels - then you would only have to place one single bet to capture one of the two states - the last previos and current state.RRBRRRBRBBB
RRBRRRThe hovering state
BRB One series of singels stateNow if that single bet would lose you would get one of each state "three" to show once each ...RRBRRRBRBBBRRRI use this dozen strategy using even money bets to discover that follow the wheel is much better then play against it.This is a great way to understand and observe how the random flow unfold using three existing states.The dozen strategy is that you bet aginst that one dozen will repeat - witch would be the same for the even money states.Dozen:
1
2 W
1 W
2 W
3 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
2 W
2 L
2
3
3 L
1
1 L
EC:
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
1
1 W
2
1 W
2
1
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
2
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 L
1 L State repeat
1
2
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L State repeat
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
Using the same method with three state with even money bets is very simple.
You see RRRBB Witch is one state - then you would play twice that a new state will show.If not the last previos state repeat it self in the same way one dozen would do using the method described above - RRRBBRRBBB ...
Same with the other two states witch would look like this.
RBB = single state RBBRBB = Repeating state
RBRRR = single state RBRRRBRB = Repeating state
This is how i made my observations and any dozen strategy that exist apply using the three existing states for even money distribution.With that experiment you should notice why it is better to follow then bet aginst the flow.I just find out that two previos state hit more frequent and show that nothing is due to happen.Cheers[/color]
You're a good man ego.
Thanks for all your valuable help.
HELP plz :question:
the more i read the more confused i get.
How to play every trail?
Random walk 3 i don't yet know how to explain in writing.
Strike distribution ...
So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO
[/size]
[/size]Is this only me? anyone that read this can explain me?
Hi All,
Interesting thread I have to admit I'm a bit lost also :-[
Thanks
malcop
Quote from: ego on Mar 15, 07:45 PM 2012
Explanation - there is no triggers or past previous results using this method.
I just start with black and see what coming up next and catch every existing tendency towards imbalance - to do that you have to know how randomness flow or unfold.
I see it like this that my ant is stronger the randomness ant.
Sure there will be some kind of fluctuation witch will create a losing wave - utopia to say anything else.
But this topic is interesting because if you can pick any table and start at any point with 20 units and win 10 sessions over and over again with humble win target.
Then there is many various MM and capitalizing strategy witch can make it a real consistent winner or at least improve the overall strategy.
Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.
The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration 8)
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 20, 04:01 PM 2012
Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.
The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration 8)
Hello AJ
With this progression you can catch winning streak and could be successful with modest win goal target. You can bet alternatively R and B and only be in trouble if you catch opposite chops.
If you catch longer streaks of repeats like RRRRRRBBBBBB then you constantly add to your BR.
I wish i could read trends like ego :ooh:
Regards
hi ROB.
After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.
cheers
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 20, 10:02 PM 2012
hi ROB.
After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.
cheers
Hello AJ
Thanks for an offer. I will go through posts one more time and i hope to figure them out.
I will go through my live spins to find out also how often series of EC's repeat.
Regards
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 20, 10:02 PM 2012
hi ROB.
After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.
cheers
Hello AJ
I checked 38 live wheel sessions at Smart Live - around 7k spins. On average you get 9.5 sets of repeats of 4 or more and 2 sets of at least 3 chops like RBRBRB. Only 3 times there were less than 7 sets of repeats and 6 times more than 4 or more chops. Maybe we can exploit these results.
To me betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend.
Regards
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Apr 21, 05:12 AM 2012
Hello AJ
I checked 38 live wheel sessions at Smart Live - around 7k spins. On average you get 9.5 sets of repeats of 4 or more and 2 sets of at least 3 chops like RBRBRB. Only 3 times there were less than 7 sets of repeats and 6 times more than 4 or more chops. Maybe we can exploit these results.
To me betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend.
Regards
the point of the testing was not to test the progression. that part was only to try the profitability of it =).
The real thing was about getting the unfold of events.
To get the random walk working with the flow of events.
=)
If you want we can open a new thread and brainstorm on "betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend."
There are also many other strategies of throwing a random pattern into the distribution. But more on that latter if you're up to.
Cheers
Quote from: albertojonas on Apr 20, 04:01 PM 2012
Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.
The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration 8)
may EGO comment on this?
i would love to deeply understand this. Would be nice to get any sort of confirmation or correction.
Please Ego =)
Cheers
There appear to be missing posts between #14 and #15 that make this thread hard to understand.