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Roulette-focused => Testing zone => Topic started by: Tomla021 on Jun 02, 07:24 PM 2012

Title: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 02, 07:24 PM 2012
With all of the John Legend stuff etc in the last few months I wrote something down in a notepad and forgot it till today:
I wrote Dozens down by four  as in 2313.
2313
1123
3301
3122


etc etc....
I did 1000 double zero spins and never  went more than 8 spins before matching a dozen with one in  in the above line......seems bizzare as when i have looked at other dozen bet methods you always get sleepers from 10-20 times.
anyone ever test anything similiar?
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 02, 09:54 PM 2012
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jun 02, 07:24 PM 2012
With all of the John Legend stuff etc in the last few months I wrote something down in a notepad and forgot it till today:
I wrote Dozens down by four  as in 2313.
2313
1123
3301
3122


etc etc....
I did 1000 double zero spins and never  went more than 8 spins before matching a dozen with one in  in the above line......seems bizzare as when i have looked at other dozen bet methods you always get sleepers from 10-20 times.
anyone ever test anything similiar?

Hello Tomla

I went quickly through my SL live spins and found that it went more than 8 spins 3 times - once 11 spins. I don't think you can exploit something here. You may wait few virtual loses but basically you would get similar strike rate as in JL Reversed Code 4. I saw there 17 spins without match.  O0

Regards 
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: GLC on Jun 03, 12:54 AM 2012
Tom,
I'll check out a few spins and see how it looks also.  Even 8 to 11 between hits isn't that bad since we'll be betting a single dozen.  Heck a dozen can sleep for a lot more spins than 11 tracking in a straight line.  This might be exploitable, but I'm sure it'll involve some big bets to keep it out of the grinder territory.
GLC
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 04:43 AM 2012
On RX it went up tp 21 in 10K spins.

Are we playing the whole line? or only one win per line?
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: GLC on Jun 03, 10:35 AM 2012
Quote from: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 04:43 AM 2012
On RX it went up tp 21 in 10K spins.

Are we playing the whole line? or only one win per line?
I think Tom was hoping that we could play the whole line.  I also have seen a 13 and a 15.  It's looking like we will have to be ready to bet a steep martingale progression for a full recovery on one win or get into a "grind your way back up" situation after a long stretch with no matches.
For betting dozens or columns, my favorite has always been the "Penthouse" progression:

111222333444555666 etc...  Move 1 to the right on a loss and move 3 to the left on a win.

It can be adapted to fit your risk tolerance by changing the line:
112233445566 etc... or 11112222333344445555etc...

You can also ratchet up or down the risk by moving 5, 4, 2 or even 1 to the left after a win.  The numbers below 3 increase risk of larger bet sizes and of course, the opposite  for the numbers larger than 3.

If we're getting a better strike rate than expected, any of these will work.  The work "work" meaning win a lot of small attacks and every now and then have to accept a large loss.  With a higher than expected strike rate the small wins will outrun the large losses.  That's the hope anyway.

GLC
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: iggiv on Jun 03, 11:36 AM 2012
don't waist your time hoping that this particular dozen (which hit in particular sequence before)  won't sleep for too long.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 03, 12:11 PM 2012
2 me betting for any dozen or column or mix either sleeping,repeating or matching in any pattern, virtual loses, triggers, different style progression etc. wont produce strike rate good enough in d long run 2 make it successful method. 2 go 4 broke would be foolish as we found out in earlier posts. Tomla in 1k spins never saw more than 8 spins without match n Juice in 10k reported 21... ;D which is not surprising 2 me at all. If you shorten your progression d strike rate is simply not there. 

Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 12:12 PM 2012
I will try find the win loss ratio.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 12:37 PM 2012
The Hope was that by using the matrix that you shorten the long sleepers.... Only can be checked by testing to see if it makes any difference
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: iggiv on Jun 03, 12:41 PM 2012
"due theory" is wrong. Nothing is due. if something does not hit frequently enough (more than average, which for dozen is once in 3 spins) then it does not make sense to "improve" it with long progression, which will make things worse. Nothing is "due".

link:://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/rbf/HIPR2/figs/gauss1.gif (link:://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/rbf/HIPR2/figs/gauss1.gif)

Something that does not hit for long time does not happen frequently, but once it happens it kills everything, and it will happen regularly enough
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 12:56 PM 2012
Well did 100K spins well actually 99996 spins in order to get the first bet line.

Losses = 66415 = 0.66 = 66%
Wins = 33581    = 0.34 = 34%

I used +1 on a loss reset to 1 on a win(just to see the longest loss which was 27). And it made 3000+ units albeit on a NZ table.

Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 01:15 PM 2012
not really due theory but hoping that a 3,4,5 matrix might break up the general nature of playing straight roulette.....thanks for the test.
you reset after every win?
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 03, 01:15 PM 2012
Quote from: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 12:56 PM 2012
Well did 100K spins well actually 99996 spins in order to get the first bet line.

Losses = 66415 = 0.66 = 66%
Wins = 33581    = 0.34 = 34%

I used +1 on a loss reset to 1 on a win(just to see the longest loss which was 27). And it made 3000+ units albeit on a NZ table.

I just dont see any advantage. Do another 100k spins and you will be down more than 3000...
And if you covered 0 then do d math  ;D
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 01:35 PM 2012
well running another 100,000 would be interesting then.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: iggiv on Jun 03, 02:06 PM 2012
guys, roulette kills any CONSISTENT patterns. but try to invent new patterns each time and u may be OK. if u use matrix, try to bet each time a new pattern on it. there could be lots of them. just my idea. think about it.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 02:14 PM 2012
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Jun 03, 01:15 PM 2012
I just don't see any advantage. Do another 100k spins and you will be down more than 3000...
And if you covered 0 then do d math  ;D

Just did another 100K and was actually up 3374 units :P . And yes reset to 1 on any win
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: iggiv on Jun 03, 02:22 PM 2012
make tests on different wheels. what happens on one wheel is not an indicator. and even what happens on a few wheels does not mean u will win on a long run.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 02:26 PM 2012
Its RNG how would i use another wheel? :yawn:
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: iggiv on Jun 03, 02:37 PM 2012
use another RNG then.

try also this

link:://:.random.org/ (link:://:.random.org/)

u can use in "actuals" section the stuff i posted.
lots of spins, some of them in hundreds of thousands.
This particular RNG u r testing may have this kind of "temp bias", but it won't last forever
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 02:42 PM 2012
See it may be worth testing a bit........not saying its anything but 200,000 spins is something....might be worth looking further....
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 02:53 PM 2012
Thanks for testing Juiced!
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 03:13 PM 2012
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 02:53 PM 2012
Thanks for testing Juiced!

Anytime dude. Did another 500K and it ended at 1966. And thats with a nonsense progression.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 04:24 PM 2012
Did it hold at 34% thats the key I think--it should be  33.3%
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 03, 04:32 PM 2012
To be honest i did not check
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 04:57 PM 2012
too bad that could be important, but thanks----the whole point I guess is that maybe by picking the right length of a matrix and the right bet you can beat the game....to me the matrixes just change the normal flow of a straight game---would be interesting to see more testing
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: GLC on Jun 03, 10:52 PM 2012
Juiced,  Interesting results.  Your bet progression is interesting also.  Would you mind running the system through your spins using the following progression:
1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 etc...
+1 on a loss and reset to 1 on a win.  After a loss on the 2nd 2 you're just going in the hole more if you increase your bet size.  If there's not stop loss, then you just play till you have a win then reset to 1.  The most you should ever have to bet is about 32 times, and you may never live long enough to have a dozen sleep that long.
Even betting 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 etc... might show some strange results.

Thanks,
GLC
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 03, 11:08 PM 2012
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jun 03, 04:57 PM 2012
too bad that could be important, but thanks----the whole point I guess is that maybe by picking the right length of a matrix and the right bet you can beat the game....to me the matrixes just change the normal flow of a straight game---would be interesting to see more testing

That would mean that roulette behaves not randomly in certain patterns or sequences  ;D
Of course there are some fluctuations but they happen randomly. If you are lucky and choose right
pattern you profit but it wont last.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: GLC on Jun 04, 12:06 AM 2012
Quote from: GLC on Jun 03, 10:52 PM 2012
The most you should ever have to bet is about 32 times, and you may never live long enough to have a dozen sleep that long. (I got carried away with this statement because, of course, we're not just betting on the dozen that hit furthest back)

GLC
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 04:19 AM 2012
Quote from: GLC on Jun 03, 10:52 PM 2012
Juiced,  Interesting results.  Your bet progression is interesting also.  Would you mind running the system through your spins using the following progression:
1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 etc...
+1 on a loss and reset to 1 on a win.  After a loss on the 2nd 2 you're just going in the hole more if you increase your bet size.  If there's not stop-loss, then you just play till you have a win then reset to 1.  The most you should ever have to bet is about 32 times, and you may never live long enough to have a dozen sleep that long.
Even betting 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 etc... might show some strange results.

Thanks,
GLC

so its 1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 till i win never going more than 2?
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: GLC on Jun 04, 09:34 AM 2012
Quote from: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 04:19 AM 2012

so its 1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 till i win never going more than 2?

I'm just noticing that if you bet +1 on a loss, reset to 1 on a win, after betting 5 units you just start going negative even on a win.

You could use 1-2-3-4-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5.   That would give you all the winning spins in the beginning, but you wouldn't lose so much if it goes past the 6th bet before you win.

Example:

If lose        Bet             If win
-1                1                +2
-3                2                +3
-6                3                +3
-10              4                +2
-15              5                  0
-21              6                 -3   From here on you keep going in the hole whether you win or lose.  If you keep increasing the size of your bet by 1 unit, it hurts you because it just increases the amount you will lose when you finally have a win.

-28              7                 -7
-36              8                 -12   See what I mean.

Compare:

-1                1                 +2
-3                2                 +3
-5                2                 +1
-7                2                  -1
-9                2                  -3
-11              2                  -5
-13              2                  -7
-15              2                  -9   We're now at the same place as bet 8 above but we're only going to lose -9 units instead of -12 units when we win and the difference keeps escalating from here so if we don't win until the 15th bet we forfeit a really large amount compared to this method.

You could use 1-1-2-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4 to maximize the units won before going flat bet.  There's and idea balance here to maximize wins in the long run.

What do you think, or am I confused? :o

GLC
 
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 10:04 AM 2012
It does alright. See graph
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 04, 10:09 AM 2012
Would love to see 111111111 flat and georges new progression...the 111111 will tell a lot about if the setup has an advantage or not
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 04, 10:53 AM 2012
Quote from: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 10:04 AM 2012
It does alright. See graph

Hello Juice

When i look at your graph it tells me that you can win 1000u in aproximately 20k spins (0-20k)
and lose 1000u in aproximately 20k spins (50k-70k). Yeah it does alright - 1400u in 200k spins which is about 0.14u average profit  in a game of 20 spins  :D
So based on this type of testing what would be your prediction 4 real play conditions - lets say 10 games daily?  Do you consider this system playable? My point is that this type of testing involving large number of spins can only bury d system. Lots of them take a nosedive after 10k or 30k n never recover. Some of them behave like this one. There is no one that goes up steadily.

Regards

Regards
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 11:09 AM 2012
Yeah thats a valid point. I guess the only reason we test for many many spins to find the HG. Anyway here was a flatbet test.
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Robeenhuut on Jun 04, 12:10 PM 2012
Quote from: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 11:09 AM 2012
Yeah that's a valid point. I guess the only reason we test for many many spins to find the method. Anyway here was a flatbet test.

Yeah Juiced

Flat bet systems usually go down faster in testing. The ones especially with heavy progression can stay in positive territory 4 a while but inevitably comes large hit. If a system is easy 2 code or was coded already then Rx goes 2 work  ;D
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 04, 01:09 PM 2012
see it didnt go terribly down flat as expected......now it would be interesting with Georges MM?
thanks for all of the testing Juiced
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Juiced91 on Jun 04, 01:15 PM 2012
Quote from: Tomla021 on Jun 04, 01:09 PM 2012
see it didn't go terribly down flat as expected......now it would be interesting with Georges MM?
thanks for all of the testing Juiced

The first graph i posted i used 1,2,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4 which is GLC's progrssion
Title: Re: dozen thing I noticed
Post by: Tomla021 on Jun 04, 03:38 PM 2012
Thanks Juiced ,, thats not bad either