Spread of hits in 200 spins

[Joe]

This post by Scarface in another thread inspired me to do my own tests :

There has to be a reason a strategy wins.     Consider these 2 different approaches:

Example 1: player believes that numbers hit will tend to equal out in the short term.  This player will base his entire strategy on this event happening most of the time.  His strategy relies on cold numbers catching up to hot numbers, eventually there will be an even number of repeats.

Example 2:  player believes that in less than 200 spins there will be an unequal distribution of numbers.  He believes that some numbers can outpace other by a factor of more than 6 to 1 or even better.  His whole strategy is based on this happening most of the time.

So, which example is better?  If you run 100s of simulations of a 200 spin cycle you will see what random does.  The odds of an equal number or repeats ever occurring within 200 spins is infinitely small.  It won't even be remotely close.  There will always be a wide gap between hottest and coldest number.  Basic probability.  A player CAN use probability to make better bet selection.

So I ran a simulation in which I saved the stats from 5000 sessions of 200 spins each. What I recorded was the difference between the maximum number of hits and the minimum number of hits for any number. Here is a plot of the results :



And here is the breakdown in numbers :

Code Select Expand

Frequency distribution for v1, obs 1-5000
number of bins = 14, mean = 9.678, sd = 1.60276

       interval          midpt   frequency    rel.     cum.

           < 5.9954    5.4954         1      0.02%    0.02%
    5.9954 - 6.9954    6.4954        34      0.68%    0.70%
    6.9954 - 7.9954    7.4954       316      6.32%    7.02% **
    7.9954 - 8.9954    8.4954       800     16.00%   23.02% *****
    8.9954 - 9.9954    9.4954      1298     25.96%   48.98% *********
    9.9954 - 10.995    10.495      1183     23.66%   72.64% ********
    10.995 - 11.995    11.495       719     14.38%   87.02% *****
    11.995 - 12.995    12.495       411      8.22%   95.24% **
    12.995 - 13.995    13.495       148      2.96%   98.20% *
    13.995 - 14.995    14.495        67      1.34%   99.54%
    14.995 - 15.995    15.495        17      0.34%   99.88%
    15.995 - 16.995    16.495         4      0.08%   99.96%
    16.995 - 17.995    17.495         1      0.02%   99.98%
          >= 17.995    18.495         1      0.02%  100.00%

So the average gap between the max. number of hits and minimum is about 10. I also recorded how many numbers hit above average in each 200 spin session. The average or expected number of hits is between 5 & 6 (200/37 = 5.41), so I counted "above average" as more than 6 hits in the 200 spins. Here is the summary for that data :

Code Select Expand

Summary statistics, using the observations 1 - 5000
for the variable 'v1' (5000 valid observations)

  Mean                         11.067
  Median                       11.000
  Minimum                      5.0000
  Maximum                      17.000
  Standard deviation           1.7070
  C.V.                        0.15424
  Skewness                  0.0081092
  Ex. kurtosis               -0.11896
  5% percentile                8.0000
  95% percentile               14.000
  Interquartile range          2.0000
  Missing obs.                      0

So on average there were 11 numbers which hit more than 6 times in a 200 spin session.

Dunno if this information is useful for anyone, but there it is.

[Bigbroben]

Love it!

Thanks!

[Nimo]

Seems like this new fangled repeater method might have some merit gosh dang  it!