Conservative Mongoose

[GLC]

We have been exposed to the Aggressive Mongoose even chance betting method in other topics on this forum.  It is presented below:

#1.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #2 (+1).   If lose repeat #1 (-1).  Move up 1 step in the progression.

#2.  Bet 2 units.  If win go to #3 (+3).  If lose go to #1 (-1).

#3.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #4 (+2).

#4.  Bet 2 units.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #1 (+0).

#5.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #1 (+5).  If lose go to #6 (+3).

#6.  Bet 1 unit.  If win go to #5 (+4).  If lose go to #7 (+2).

#7.  Bet 3 units.  If win go to #1 (+5).  If lose go to #1 (-1).

What the above does is risk 1 unit to win 5 units.  It's divided into 3 sections. 

Section 1 is #'s 1 & 2.  You are trying to win 3 units in this section.  #'s 1 & 2 represent a parlay.  If you win both you will be up 3 units.  If you lose either, you will be -1 unit.  That would end your 1st attack.

Section 2 is #'s 3 & 4.  You're trying to add 1 unit to your 3 units from section 1.  This section is a 2 step capped martingale.  If you win #3 you will have won your 1 unit and will be up 4 units and can move to section 3.  If you lose #3, you will double your bet size and try to recover the 1 unit you lost in #3.  A win here and you have your 4 units and can go on to Section 3.  A loss here wipes out the 3 units you won in Section 1 and you return to section 1.  You broke even for that attack so no loss.

Section 3 is #'s 5, 6 & 7.  You're trying to add 1 final unit to the 4 you've won so far in this attack.  This section is a 1 1 3 bet attempt.  If you win the 1st 1 unit bet, you will have won your 5 units for this attack and can reset to Section 1.  If you lose the 1st 1 unit bet, you make another 1 unit bet to try to recover the 1st 1 unit loss.  If you win, you return to the 1st 1 unit bet in Section 3 and try again.  If you lose both 1 unit bets in Section 3, you will have lost 2 bets in a row and are going to risk 3 units.  This will either leave you at -1 and you return to Section 1 for another attack or you will be at +5 in which case you still return to Section 1 for another attack.

So, if we succeed in Section 1, we will be up 3 units.  If we lose Section 1, we will be -1 move up 1 step in our progression .  We only go to Section 2 if we win in Section 1.  If we succeed in Section 2, we will be up 1 more unit putting us up 4 units.  If we lose both bets in Section 2, we will have lost the 3 units we won in Section 1 and return to Section 1 with no harm done.  If we succeed in Sections 1 & 2, we move to Section 3 where we try to add 1 more unit to our total.  If we succeed in Section 5 we will add 1 more unit to our 4 units for a total of +5 units.  If we fail in our attempt in Section 3, we will lose -1 unit for this attack.  We will move 1 step up our progression line and start over with Section 1.

Even though Section 3 results in a -1 or +5 culmination of our attack, remember, we must lose 3 bets in a row to fail.

I know that is very wordy, but this is the best I can do to make the Aggressive Mongoose bet method clear to those who have PM'd me asking me to explain it.

In the next post I will introduce a Conservative method of playing the Mongoose.

GLC

[GLC]

The Conservative Mongoose is played just like the Aggressive Mongoose except for a few tweaks.

#1.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #2 (+1).  If you lose, repeat #1 (-1).  Move up 1 step in the progression.

#2.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #3 (+2).  If you lose, repeat #1 (+0).  Stay at same level in the progression.

#3.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #5 (+3).  If you lose, go to #4 (+1).

#4.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #3 (+2).  If you lose, go to #1 (+0). Stay at same level in the progression.

#5.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #1 (+4).  If you lose, go to #6 (+2).

#6.  Bet 1 unit.  If you win, go to #5 (+3).  If you lose, go to #7 (+1).

#7.  Bet 2 units.  If you win, go to #1 (+4).  If you lose, go to #1 (-1).  Move up 1 level in progression.

You notice that #'s 1 & 2 are a flat bet rather than a parlay.  This will cost you 1 unit if you win both, but it also gives you a chance to replay if you win then lose.  Contract that to the aggressive mongoose which if you lose either bet, you will be down -1 unit.

#'s 3 and 4 are also a flat bet rather than a capped martingale.  This does the same thing.  It gives you a chance to replay if you get a loss and then a win.  Again, a double loss leaves you even, so no harm done.  Replay #1.

#'s 5, 6 & 7 are the same as the aggressive method except that you only bet 2 units on the 3rd bet after 2 losses in a row.

The main advantage to the conservative method is that it gives you a few more repeats to stay in the attack before losing all.  It nets you 1 unit less than the aggressive if you win the overall attack.

On #'s 1 & 2, not having to win both to keep from losing your 1 unit is a big plus.  A win followed by a loss breaks you even and you can replay that level in the progression.

GLC

[CallMeRed]

This is great, thanks so much for posting. I like the conservative version better. I'm fairly new to this and it looks like it will give me longer (and more chances) of getting to my goal than the aggressive version. 

[mogul397]

I don't understand the mongoose betting levels and progression.

Pleas explain?

[muggins]

I don't understand the mongoose betting levels and progression.

Pleas explain?

It is pretty well explained in posts 1 & 2.

[GLC]

I don't understand the mongoose betting levels and progression.

Pleas explain?

My intro post on this topic takes you through the steps.  I know it can be a little confusing so I will try to say it as simply as I can.

The Mongoose is an attack on the casino and is made up of 3 stages.  We try to win 3 units in the 1st stage. We try to win 1 unit in the 2nd stage.  And we try to win 1 unit in the 3rd stage.  For a total of 5 units.  All 3 stages begin with a 1 unit bet.  In the 1st stage we either lose 1 unit or we win 3 units.  In the 2nd stage we either lose the 3 units we won in the 1st stage or we win 1 unit.  If we lose the 3 units won in the 1st stage, we will be even and we start a new attack.  If we win 1 unit in the 2nd stage we will have won 4 units and can go on to the 3rd stage.  In the 3rd stage we either lose 5 units or we win 1 unit.  If we lose 5 units we will be -1 for the attack and must start a new attack.  If we win 1 unit we will be at +5 and can also start a new attack.

Stage 1:  We start by betting 1 unit.  If we lose, that ends that attack and we start a new attack at 1 unit.  But, if we win the 1st bet in the 1st stage of an attack, our 2nd bet is a parlay or a let-it-ride bet.  So, we have won our 1st bet of 1 unit and we now have 2 units on the table.  We bet both units on the 2nd bet.  If we win we will have 4 units.  We pull back our original unit and now we are going to play only with the money won from the casino which in this case is 3 units. 

Stage 1 is a 2 step parlay bet.  We must win both of them to be +3 units.  If we lose either the 1st bet or the 2nd bet, we will have lost our original bet.  Let's say we won both bets and have 3 units profit to play with. 

Stage 2:  The 1st bet of stage 2 is a 1 unit bet.  If we win, we have won our 1 unit for stage 2 and we move on to stage 3.  But, if we lose, we then bet 2 units for our 2nd bet of stage 2.  If we win, we will have won our 1 unit for stage 2 and can move on to stage 3.  But, if we lose this 2nd bet also, we will have lost all 3 units which we won in stage 1 and we must begin a whole new attack.

Stage 3:  Stage 3 is a 1-1-3 bet.  Our 1st bet of stage 3 is 1 unit.  If we win that bet, we will have won a total of 5 units for this attack and we can start a whole new attack.  But what if we lose our 1st 1 unit bet?  In that case we will bet our 2nd 1 unit bet.  If we win our 2nd 1 unit bet, we will be even and can re-bet our 1st 1 unit bet of stage 3.  As long as we win then lose these two 1 unit bets, we will break even and can repeat until we either win the 1st bet or lose both of the 1 unit bets.  Any time we win the 1st 1 unit bet of stage 3 we have won 5 units and can reset to stage 1 of a new attack.  Any time we lose the 1st two 1 unit bets of stage 3 we must make a 3 unit bet.  This is a hail Mary bet.  If we lose this 3 unit bet we will be at -1 for the attack and must start a whole new attack back at state 1 bet 1.  But, if we win this 3 unit bet, we will have won our 1 unit for stage 3 and will be +5 overall for the attack and can either go home or play another attack.  We can risk the 3 unit bet because we will have just lost 2 bets in a row and are hoping losing 3 in a row doesn't happen that often.

We get 5 attempts to win an attack because we either lose 1 unit per attack or we win 5 units per attack.  It is true that if we lose both bets in stage 2 we will have broken even because all we lost was the3 units we won in stage 1.  No win, no loss.

A perfect attack will bet 4 wins in a row.  That will give us +3 in stage 1 by winning both bets, +1 in stage 2 by winning the 1st bet and +1 in stage 3 by winning the 1st bet.  In order to go to stage 2, we must win both bets in stage 1.  In order to go to stage 3 we must win either bet in stage 2.  In order to win in stage 3 we must either win the 1st bet of that stage or the 3rd bet of that stage.

In stage 3 we can have any number of bets placed if we have a loss followed by a win while betting the 1 unit bets.  We can have multiples of this W/L sequence.  To get out of this cycle, we must either win the 1st bet which ends stage 3 or we must lose both 1 units bets which brings us to the 3 unit hail Mary bet.

I know that it's a confusing bet sequence, but if you work it out on paper, you will see that it's not all that complicated to play once you have it down.

From this explanation, I hope you can decipher the conservative mongoose from my previous explanation in the original topic.

GLC

P.S.  Wow!  That's as simply as I can?  Maybe someone else should attempt this explanation?

[muggins]

Seriously doubtful anyone else could explain it better than you have already GLC.  Well done as usual.

[GLC]

Thanks Muggins but I keep getting questions about this bet process, so I'm going to do an analysis of it for clarification.

First of all, it can be played as a positive bet method or a negative bet method which I will explain later.

It is made up of 3 stages.  Each stage has a little twist on it that makes winning on that stage more certain.  The trade off is that if you don't win on the later 2 stages, you lose more than if you lose on the 1st stage.

The 1st stage is a parlay so we have to win 2 times in a row.  This is the only stage that we have to win 2 times in a row.  On this stage we lose our 1 unit bet if we lose either the 1st bet or the 2nd -parlay- bet.  Two wins in a row are not that uncommon, so we win our 1st stage on a regular basis.  Winning on this stage nets us 3 units (1st bet is 1=2; parlay bet is 2=4; taking back our starting unit 4-1=3).  This is the positive progression aspect of the method.  We could drop the next 2 stages and just play for 2 wins in a row.  All we're trying to get from the next 2 stages is 2 more units.  On the surface it doesn't seem to make sense to risk 3 or 4 units, but maybe on further analysis it will.

Now that we've won our 1st stage and have 3 units from the casino to play with, we feel pretty good and are willing to risk all 3 of those units to win 1 more.  Stage 2 consists of a 1 unit bet and if we win, we're finished with stage 2 and we now have 4 of the casino's units.  But if we lose the 1st bet, we still have 2 units to risk, so we bet these 2 units.  If we win, we will have won back the 1 unit from the 1st loss in stage 2 and will have 1 more unit from the casino netting us our +1 unit.  Our odds of winning stage 2 are better than of winning stage 1 because a win on either bet gives us the result we're looking for.  And, if we lose both bets in stage 2, we have only lost the 3 units we won from the casino so we are back to even.  But if we win stage 2 and are up 4 units, we can now consider moving on to stage 3 and trying to win 1 more unit.

So, at Stage 3 we have the most complicated stage to explain.  It's a 1-1-3 stage.  We start with a 1 unit bet.  If we win, and about half the time we should, we will have our +5 units we're after and it will end this Mongoose attack.  But if we lose this 1st bet, we will make another 1 unit bet hoping to recover our lost unit.  If we win this 2nd 1 unit bet, we will have recovered the 1st bet and we can then make the 1st again.  A win on this 1st bet will once again net us our +1 unit and end the attack.  We can go through this Win then Lose cycle multiple times before we either win the 1st 1 unit bet or lose both bets.  If we lose both bets, we still have another bet to make.  We add our 1st 1 unit bet that we started with way back in Stage 1 the 1st bet that we took back after winning 2 bets in a row and we add it to the 2 units we still have from the casino and we make a 3 unit bet.  Now this is a pretty big risk.  The reason we are willing to make it is that we have just lost 2 bets in a row and we are willing to take a risk that we won't lose 3 bets in a row.  If we win this last bet of Stage 3, we will have our +5 units we were after when we started the attack and if we lose this last bet of stage 3 we will not only have lost the 4 units we won in stages 1 and 2, but we will have also lost our initial 1 unit we started the attack with.  It doesn't sound like a risk worth taking unless you also consider that had you skipped stage 3, you would have lost 3 units anyway because you would have lost 3 initial Stage 1 bets of the next attack.

You can soften the blow of losing Stage 3 by only making a 2 unit bet for the last bet instead of a 3 unit bet.  This would mean that if you lose this last bet of stage 3, you will only lose the last 2 units you have previously won from the casino.  What this would mean is that once you win the 1st 2 bets of Stage 1, the worst you can do is break even for this attack.  So you would either lose 1 unit or win 5 units for each attack.  That means you have 5 chances to win because any win will cancel 5 losses.

A perfect attack would consist of 4 Win in a row.  Stage 1= WW  Stage 2 = W  Stage 3 = W.
The worst you can do and still win an attack is:  Stage 1 = WW  Stage 2 = L W  Stage 3 = L L W*
*please note that Stage 3 can look like any of these: L W W or LWLWW or LWLLW or LWLWLWLWLLW or LWLWLWW etc...  The L W cycle of the 1st two bets in Stage 3 can go on for an unknown number of times.

Thus far we have only considered the positive aspects of this method.  To make it a negative method all we have to do is increase our starting bet size of each attack if we have more than 5 more -1 attacks than +5 attacks.  This negative framework can be based on +1-1, or a martingale, or a Fibonacci, or FullTrioPlay.

+1-1 would mean that every time you lose 5 attacks, you increase your starting bet by 1 unit and every time you win 1 attack, you decrease your starting bet by 1 unit.

A marty means instead of +1-1, you double the size of your starting bet after 5 losses and any win recovers you back to 1.

A Fibbo should be understood from the above.

That's the Mongoose.  It's not everybody's cup of tea and if for sure isn't unbeatable so if you decide to use it, don't get too c***y.

GLC

[GLC]

Thanks Muggins but I keep getting questions about this bet process, so I'm going to do an analysis of it for clarification.

First of all, it can be played as a positive bet method or a negative bet method which I will explain later.

It is made up of 3 stages.  Each stage has a little twist on it that makes winning on that stage more certain.  The trade off is that if you don't win on the later 2 stages, you lose more than if you lose on the 1st stage.

The 1st stage is a parlay so we have to win 2 times in a row.  This is the only stage that we have to win 2 times in a row.  On this stage we lose our 1 unit bet if we lose either the 1st bet or the 2nd -parlay- bet.  Two wins in a row are not that uncommon, so we win our 1st stage on a regular basis.  Winning on this stage nets us 3 units (1st bet is 1=2; parlay bet is 2=4; taking back our starting unit 4-1=3).  This is the positive progression aspect of the method.  We could drop the next 2 stages and just play for 2 wins in a row.  All we're trying to get from the next 2 stages is 2 more units.  On the surface it doesn't seem to make sense to risk 3 or 4 units, but maybe on further analysis it will.

Now that we've won our 1st stage and have 3 units from the casino to play with, we feel pretty good and are willing to risk all 3 of those units to win 1 more.  Stage 2 consists of a 1 unit bet and if we win, we're finished with stage 2 and we now have 4 of the casino's units.  But if we lose the 1st bet, we still have 2 units to risk, so we bet these 2 units.  If we win, we will have won back the 1 unit from the 1st loss in stage 2 and will have 1 more unit from the casino netting us our +1 unit.  Our odds of winning stage 2 are better than of winning stage 1 because a win on either bet gives us the result we're looking for.  And, if we lose both bets in stage 2, we have only lost the 3 units we won from the casino so we are back to even.  But if we win stage 2 and are up 4 units, we can now consider moving on to stage 3 and trying to win 1 more unit.

So, at Stage 3 we have the most complicated stage to explain.  It's a 1-1-3 stage.  We start with a 1 unit bet.  If we win, and about half the time we should, we will have our +5 units we're after and it will end this Mongoose attack.  But if we lose this 1st bet, we will make another 1 unit bet hoping to recover our lost unit.  If we win this 2nd 1 unit bet, we will have recovered the 1st bet and we can then make the 1st again.  A win on this 1st bet will once again net us our +1 unit and end the attack.  We can go through this Win then Lose cycle multiple times before we either win the 1st 1 unit bet or lose both bets.  If we lose both bets, we still have another bet to make.  We add our 1st 1 unit bet that we started with way back in Stage 1 the 1st bet that we took back after winning 2 bets in a row and we add it to the 2 units we still have from the casino and we make a 3 unit bet.  Now this is a pretty big risk.  The reason we are willing to make it is that we have just lost 2 bets in a row and we are willing to take a risk that we won't lose 3 bets in a row.  If we win this last bet of Stage 3, we will have our +5 units we were after when we started the attack and if we lose this last bet of stage 3 we will not only have lost the 4 units we won in stages 1 and 2, but we will have also lost our initial 1 unit we started the attack with.  It doesn't sound like a risk worth taking unless you also consider that had you skipped stage 3, you would have lost 3 units anyway because you would have lost 3 initial Stage 1 bets of the next attack.

You can soften the blow of losing Stage 3 by only making a 2 unit bet for the last bet instead of a 3 unit bet.  This would mean that if you lose this last bet of stage 3, you will only lose the last 2 units you have previously won from the casino.  What this would mean is that once you win the 1st 2 bets of Stage 1, the worst you can do is break even for this attack.  So you would either lose 1 unit or win 5 4 units for each attack.  That means you have 5 4 chances to win because any win will cancel 5 4 losses.  Please note the above changes.

A perfect attack would consist of 4 Win in a row.  Stage 1= WW  Stage 2 = W  Stage 3 = W.
The worst you can do and still win an attack is:  Stage 1 = WW  Stage 2 = L W  Stage 3 = L L W*
*please note that Stage 3 can look like any of these: L W W or LWLWW or LWLLW or LWLWLWLWLLW or LWLWLWW etc...  The L W cycle of the 1st two bets in Stage 3 can go on for an unknown number of times.

Thus far we have only considered the positive aspects of this method.  To make it a negative method all we have to do is increase our starting bet size of each attack if we have more than 5 more -1 attacks than +5 attacks.  This negative framework can be based on +1-1, or a martingale, or a Fibonacci, or FullTrioPlay.

+1-1 would mean that every time you lose 5 attacks, you increase your starting bet by 1 unit and every time you win 1 attack, you decrease your starting bet by 1 unit.

A marty means instead of +1-1, you double the size of your starting bet after 5 losses and any win recovers you back to 1.

A Fibbo should be understood from the above.

That's the Mongoose.  It's not everybody's cup of tea and if for sure isn't unbeatable so if you decide to use it, don't get too c***y.

GLC