Point and Figure Method - Thanks to Ego and GLC

[Colbster]

This is my own method branching off the Notepad discussion titled Riding the Waves.

To begin, this method is founded around the Point and Figure method of investment charting.  If you are unfamiliar with the concept, it may be useful to read this brief explanation:

link:://:.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp

The maximum drawdown for this method for a session is 4 units plus whatever losses to 0/00 that come in the session.  The rules I lay out will take care of the session stopping point for you so there is no need to concern yourself with anything beyond probably 7 units (and that seems excessive but you never know) to cover the bets and zeroes that pop up.

All spins are considered in groups of 3.  As explained in the Riding the Waves topic, spins that are the same as the last spin on whichever EC you are tracking receive a +1 value, chopping results give us a -1 value.  The 3 spins are considered only against themselves and are completely unrelated to the previous 3 or the following 3.  The first spin is always a tracking spin.  The second spin is considered against the first and given either a +1 or -1.  The 3rd spin is compared against the 2nd spin and given a +1 or a -1.  Each set of 3 spins has 3 possible results: +2 where both the second and third spin are the same as the first, -2 where each spin is a chop, such as HLH, EOE, or RBR, and 0 where the spins have one chop and one repeat, such as OEE, RRB, or LHH.

We track until we have a significant result, either +2 or -2.  +2 suggests a series and is designated on the tracker spreadsheet as an X, -2 suggests choppiness and is designated as an O.  Once we have our first real result, we place an X or an O in the center of the left-most line on a grid (grid paper or a spreadsheet, whatever your preference).  We play for this to continue until it is forcibly reversed.  For instance, if we have an X, we continue to bet for repeats.  After the first spin, we bet 1 unit for a repeat of the same result.  If we win, we play 1 unit for another repeat.  If this loses, we have a wash.  If we win both, we have gained 2 units and further confirmation of our repeating trend.  After 2 consecutive repeats, we would mark another X above the first X and start another 3 spin set.  If we have a win and then a loss, no gain, no loss, no notation on the tracking sheet.

If we lose the first bet of a 3-spin set, we double the second bet.  For instance, if we started with a L on the first spin, we would bet 1 unit on L.  If the second spin is an H, we are down 1 unit and now bet 2 units on H for the continuation.  If we lose the first bet but win the second, we are +1 but still do not note anything on the tracking sheet.

Likewise, if we started with an O instead of an X, we bet 1 unit for a chop from the first spin.  If we win, we bet another 1 unit to chop back to the first result.  If we have lost by a repeat of the first spin, we bet two units for the chop.  A win and a loss or a loss and a win are neutral and do not get noted.  However, like before, a loss at the 2nd spin of 1 unit gets 2 units for the 3rd unit and we have a net +1.  If we win in an O stage, we have RBR, LHL, or EOE, gain 2 units net (+1, +1) and mark another O BELOW the first O on the tracking sheet.  X's always continue upwards, O's always continue downwards.

When we lose 2 consecutive spins, we are down 3 units.  We have now shifted from an X to an O or from an O to an X and will continue in the new direction following the rules above.

SUPER IMPORTANT NOTE: The first X is always one space above the last O and the first O is always one space below the last X.  If we have an X to the right of an O or an O to the right of an X, we continue playing.  If, however, the X or O has a blank space to the left of it, the game is completely over.  Like I mentioned, the money management rules engage at this point and you walk away with a loss.  Even though you have a loss, you could easily be positive on your bankroll.  While you were waiting for the first loss to register, you could have had a series of losses at 1 unit followed by wins of 2 units.  These +1 neutral sets help lessen the loss and can overcome the loss for a net win.

In actual play, you will see series of many X's or many O's.  These earnings are all profit, plus the +1's you accrue along the way.  The session only ends with consecutive losses after a brand new direction.

The worst-case scenarios are either a -2 immediately after a +2, meaning an O right after an X as soon as you start (or vice versa) or an XX-O-X or OO-X-O to begin a game.  The first is a -3 loss, the second is a -4 loss.  Both are mitigated by any +1 sets (L -1, W+2) that aren't marked on the tracker.  There is no topside limit for wins, happily.  You can have 7 Xs in a row, followed by 5 Os in a row, followed by 7 Xs in a row, etc.  The upside is great, the downside is VERY limited. 

When you do have a zero, regardless of when it falls, take the loss of units and ignore it for tracking and betting purposes.

[sniper]

Hello Colbster,

Thank you very much for your post.

I read a couple of times and I still do not understand the part on continuing and stop playing.

Could you please shed some light on this.

If we have an X to the right of an O or an O to the right of an X, we continue playing.  If, however, the X or O has a blank space to the left of it, the game is completely over.

Regards and Best Wishes.

[Colbster]

I knew I should have attached a file! 

If you look at the spreadsheet contained in this post, you will see what I mean by this.  In the first example, we have an extremely profitable session that illustrates what I mean.

We begin the session at A14 when we get our first +2.  Over the next period of time, we get a total of 6 confirmations in addition to however many neutral sets may occur.  At B9 we have our first loss and it changes our bets.  Because there is an X is A9, we can continue betting and we win a total of 3 sets of O's plus neutral sets.  We lose again at C10, but the presence of an O at B10 allows us to continue.  At D7 we have a loss.  The X at C7 allows us to continue.'

With our final loss, however, at E6, the session comes to an end.  There is no O at D6 to allow us to continue and we stop.  This is a money management tool that protects us from chasing to recover.  It will always appear as 2 consecutive losses with the exception of that given in my second example.

In the second example, we only have 1 loss but it is our very first bet.  The O at H9 is the first result while we are tracking.  When we lose at I10, there is no O to allow us to continue at H10.  This is a 3-unit loss (offset by whatever neutral +1s we may have had along the way) and it stops us right off.

[sniper]

Thank you very much for your prompt reply.

Your explanation is very clear.

I tested your system for the past 4 hours and I noticed the strike rate is impressive.

Recovery is fast and draw down is low and acceptable.

I will try it out at the B&M casino for a week starting tomorrow.

Thanks and Regards.

[sniper]

Hi Colbster,

I am thinking of stopping on 1st hit and skip the 2nd bet.

If lose 1st bet, I will go for 2nd bet.

Please comment and correct me if I am wrong.

I have not tested long enough to see the difference.

Regards

[Colbster]

I really love that variation as a possibility and considered it myself.  It catches a +1 on every neutral set but only gives us a +1 on wins.  I don't know if that is a wash or if there will be more neutral sets than winning/losing sets.  Our only possibilities are WW/WL/LW/LL so I would guess its a wash but totally up to you.

[sniper]

After the 1st hit we will still watch the outcome of the 2nd signal, even though we are not betting, to determine the X,O or washout
for plotting the chart. The charting will remain exactly the same .

If we stop betting after 1st hit, we will have 6 +1 wins vs 2 -3 losses.

It's a matter of individual preference, I feel more comfortable playing with higher strike rate.

Regards

[Colbster]

Here is an example session I just completed on BV European to maybe better demonstrate the playing method.

Total of 83 spins, with 81 tracked (There was a zero on the tracking spin which was ignored and a 0 that caused a loss of 2 units).

Wins (+2): 10

Loss (-3): 5

Washes where we gained 1 unit by losing the first 1-unit bet and won the second 2-unit bet: 7

Net: 12 units - 2 lost to zero = +10 units

This is betting no more than 2 units ever, dang near flat betting.

[Colbster]

I just discovered that Bayes was WAY ahead of me with a proposed method utilizing Point and Figures charting.  Goes to show you, there is nothing new that hasn't already been thought of. 

[Colbster]

@Sniper

I was thinking about your variation and, statistically, it works out to the same as mine except it has few bets and results in fewer losses to 0.  That said, I think your way is ABSOLUTELY the way to play prior to the first win as it gives us a better chance of getting back the couple chips prior to a theoretical loss.  If we only can lose 3, and we get back 1 or 2 of those from washes, it just gets that much better.