Help developing new system - Bayes? Anyone?

[falkor2k15]

I'm testing to see whether a system can be developed based around betting the oldest sleepers.

We start off betting the oldest single sleeper (1 x straight up), which we know will eventually win by spin 500. However, we need to cut our sessions short and achieve a win earlier than at least spin 100 by gradually introducing the 2nd oldest sleeper followed by the 3rd oldest sleeper.... etc.

The challenge is to know exactly when an additional number should be brought into the fray to win at the optimum rate before the bank balance runs out.

1 Number
-spin 2: 1 number (oldest sleeper)
-progression on 1 number (will break bank before spin 500)
-spin 500: win

2 Numbers
spin 2: 1 number (oldest sleeper)
-progression on 1 number (might still break the bank before spin x when the next number is added alongside)
spin x: 2 numbers (oldest sleepers)
-progression on 2 numbers (will probably still break the bank before max winning spin - should be less than 500)
spin y: win

3 Numbers
spin 2: 1 number (oldest sleeper)
-progression on 1 number
spin x: 2 numbers (oldest sleepers)
-progression on 2 numbers
spin y: 3 numbers (oldest sleepers)
-progression on 3 numbers (the more numbers we have spread evenly the less chance of breaking the bank)
spin z: win

Perhaps the units/progression can be tackled at a later time.

Any ideas on x, y, z? What's the minimum numbers we need to win? Or can you prove that we will always lose in the end?

[winkel]

Or can you prove that we will always lose in the end?

That has been proven several times.

It is unbelievable how you create a HG nearly every day.

[The General]

falkor2k15,

Your system is no better or worse than the GUT.  Both will fail in the long run.

[RouletteGhost]

falkor2k15,

Your system is no better or worse than the GUT.  Both will fail in the long run.

Is there a reason you won't go away? You are a straight up nuisance

Winkel is 100000 times better contributor then you are

Its obvious you just took a stab at him

[Bayes]

Just for fun, you could try adapting Turbo's 50Max to sleepers. He mentioned himself that this might be worth a shot, don't know whether he actually tried it though (as it is, the system failed in the long term - big surprise  ).

(50 max)

    Introduction

The basic concept of this system is to provide the player with
the best possible odds of a win, along with the least possible
progression.  This is done by using all areas of the board within
the system and using the odds of winning and the payout ratios.

    What you need to know

It is important to know your specific casino's table limits - min.
and max. bets allowed, inside and outside.  You will need this info
to make the initial chart described below.  Various casinos have their
own limits.  I tested this system with a "personal limit" of $50.00
max per spin on one location on the table.  This, of course, is well
below the table limits.  Using the table limits will obviously require
a larger bankroll but will increase your wins.  The following
deals only with this $50.00 max approach.

    What you need to do   

(1)  First, you will need to make a chart. Use lined paper and create
8 columns.  Label the first column "Units" and number down the sheet
from 5 to 50. (The 5 represents the minimum table limit). Label the second
"Even/Odd" and duplicate the 5-50 number list below it.  Label the third
"Dozens" and # in this order 10 12 14 16 etc. to 100.  Label the fourth
"Lane" or "Split Street" and # in this order 25 30 35 40 etc. to 250.
Label the fifth column "Square" and # in this order 40 48 56 64 etc. to 400.
(multiples of .  Label the sixth column "Street" and # in this order -
55 66 77 88 99 etc. to 550. (multiples of 11). Label the seventh "Split"
and # 85 102 119 etc. to 850 (multiples of 17), and finally the last
column label as "Single" and # as follows 175 210 245 etc to 1750.
(multiples of 35).
Now, go back to the Dozens column and mark off (or erase) all numbers
that are less than or equal to any number in the "Even/Odd" column.
You should have 52-100 remaining.  Now move to the "Lane" column and
do the same, crossing off numbers that are less than or equal to ones in the
Dozens column.  Continue this across the chart.  You will end up with
5-50 in "Even/Odd", 52-100 in "Dozens", 105-250 in "Lane", 256 to 400 in
"Square", 407-550 in "Street", 561-850 in "Split" and 875 to 1750 in "Single"
Here is a compressed version of this chart -

Units    Even-Odd  Dozen    Lane        Square    Street    Split        Single
       (1:1)      (2:1)        (5:1)        (8:1)        (11:1)        (17:1)         (35:1)
==================================================================
5-20       5-20      ==         ===        ===        ===        ===        ===
21       21          ==        105        ===        ===        ===        ===
22       22          ==        110        ===        ===        ===        ===
23       23          ==        115        ===        ===        ===        ===
24       24          ==        120        ===        ===        ===        ===
25       25          ==        125        ===        ===        ===        875
26       26          52        130        ===        ===        ===        910
27       27          54        135        ===        ===        ===        945
28       28          56        140        ===        ===        ===        980
29       29          58        145        ===        ===        ===        1015
30       30          60        150        ===        ===        ===        1050
31       31          62        155        ===        ===        ===        1085
32       32          64        160        256        ===        ===        1120
33       33          66        165        264        ===        561        1155
34       34          68        170        272        ===        578        1190
35       35          70        175        280        ===        595        1225
36       36          72        180        288        ===        612        1260
37       37          74        185        296        407        629        1295
38       38          76        190        304        418        646        1330
39       39          78        195        312        429        663        1365
40       40          80        200        320        440        680        1400
41       41          82        205        328        451        697        1435
42       42          84        210        336        462        714        1470
43       43          86        215        344        473        731        1505
44       44          88        220        352        484        748        1540
45       45          90        225        360        495        765        1575
46       46          92        230        368        506        782        1610
47       47          94        235        376        517        799        1645
48       48          96        240        384        528        816        1680
49       49          98        245        392        539        833        1715
50       50          100        250        400        550        850        1750

The purpose of this chart is to show what amounts can be made on a win with
the best odds of a win and the least amount of units bet to get that amount.
For example - if you are down $120.00,  your bet is $24.00 on a lane (described
below).  There are many other ways to bet to make the same amount on a win,
however, this is the best chance you have of a win with the least risk.
If you instead bet $60.00 on a dozen, you would win the $120.00 1 in 3.16 tries,
risking $60.00 but following the chart, you are risking only $24.00 with the
odds of a win at 1 in 6.33 tries.  Again, using this chart will give you the best
chance of a win along with the least amount of risk.  You can now simplify
this chart onto index cards.  A quick reference for during real play, telling you
how much to bet and where to place the bet.  One card for each column,
labeled the same as above with units and payoff amounts.
Example :
___________________________________________
I street                                I
I  37/407   41/451   45/495   49/539                              I
I  38/418   42/462   46/506   50/550                              I
I  39/429   43/473   47/517                                            I
I  40/440   44/484   48/528                                            I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

(2)  Second, you need a reasonable goal for profit and length of session.
This is important because this system (although in the end you want to reach
your goal) deals ONLY with the current spin.  There is no room for greed
or lack of control.  A reasonable goal of +$2.00 per spin is suggested.
I have tested it between $.50 and $6.00 per spin and would only advise
higher than +$2.00 per spin once you have the feel for it and are willing
to take more risk.
Now, on another index card, number your spins down the left side and next
to them, put your individual spin goal amount.
Example :

1    2
2    4
3    6
4    8
5    10  etc.

Your goal is ONLY to get to this target amount which is next to the current spin.
Don't be concerned with how far you are from the final balance - as you will see,
everytime you win you will be at or slightly above your target amount for that spin.
All of this is explained below.

        Betting

This section will describe how bets are placed.  The example below is from
an American 0/00 wheel (with 1/2 loss on 0/00).  You will see during your own
tests or playing, that the outcome is almost identical on a single 0 wheel with
full loss on a 0 outcome.  We are going to "chase" the last outcome as we
bet.  We are following the rules of $5.00 min bet and $50.00 max bet on
any table location.  Each spin is followed by an explanation of what to do and why.
The general idea is this - Anytime you are at your goal, or ahead of it, you will
bet the table minimum (5.00) on the next spin.  Anytime you are behind your
goal, you will figure the difference between your balance and the upcoming
spins goal amount, check the reference to see where to bet and how much,
and make the bet.  This is explained further below.  With a brief amount of
practice, you can figure this and place the bet well within the time limits.
If you practice chip management, you will not even need to do the calculation,
since you know from your chips how far ahead or behind you are.  For others
who are not able to do this, you will need to figure the amount on the index
card and make the proper bet.
The following example is being typed as I test it, I did not pick a "winner" from
the stack as an example.  Each spin will be explained.

        Demonstration Session

You arrive at the table, have your chips (preferably an good mix of
$10.00  $5.00 and $1.00 chips.)  The last outcome on the board is....

                        (34)

Spin    Goal        Bet            Outcome    Balance
1    +2        5 even        24    win    +5
^^ although the goal was only to win 2, the table minimum is
5.00.. so 5.00 on the same "even/odd" as the last outcome was bet.
Now our balance is +5 and the goal for next spin is +4, we are
equal or ahead of goal so the minimum is bet again.
2    +4        5 even        9    loss    +-0
Now we have a balance of 0, the next spin's goal is +6 so our
next bet is 6.00 on odd (since 9 was the last outcome)
3    +6        6 odd            9    win     +6
now we are right on our target, as we will be after any win.
The following will speak for itself, until further info is needed.
4    +8        5 odd            36    loss    +1
5    +10        9 even        4    win    +10 (at goal)
6    +12        5 even        35    loss    +5
7    +14        9 odd            36    loss    -4
8    +16        20 even        2    win    +16 (at goal)
9    +18        5 even        5    loss    +11
10    +20        9 odd            6    loss    +2
11    +22        20 even        00    loss    -8
1/2 loss on the 00 - (-10) and next spin is sat out and not played.
---    -----        ----------        22    -----    -8
12    +24        32 even        22    win    +24 (at goal)
13    +26        5 even        3    loss    +19
14    +28        9 odd            7    win    +28
15    +30        5 odd            25    win    +33
16    +32        5 odd            2    loss    +28
17    +34        6 even        6    win    +34
18    +36        5 even        21    loss    +29
19    +38        9 odd            00    loss    +24.50
sit out this spin and set aside the .50 piece
----    -----        ---------        12    -----    +24
20    +40        16 even        28    win    +40
21    +42        5 even        7    loss    +35
22    +44        9 odd            17    win    +44
23    +46        5 odd            20    loss    +39
24    +48        9 even        16    win    +48
25    +50        5 even        30    win    +53
26    +52        5 even        7    loss    +48
27    +54        6 odd            10    loss    +42
28    +56        14 even        10    win    +56
(as you can see, all is going well, right on target - however
this demo will continue until a notable loss happens, in order
to show how it is handled.)
29    +58        5 even        32    win    +61
30    +60        5 even        13    loss    +56
31    +62        6 odd            4    loss    +50
32    +64        14 even        13    loss    +36
33    +66        30 odd        15    win    +66
34    +68        5 odd            19    win    +71
35    +70        5 odd            16    loss    +66
36    +72        6 even        0    loss    +63
----    -----        ---------        23    -----    +63
37    +74        11 odd        22    loss    +52
38    +76        24 even        5    loss    +28
39    +78        50 odd        31    win    +78
40    +80        5 odd            24    loss    +73
41    +82        9 even        4    win    +82
42    +84        5 even        25    loss    +77
43    +86        9 odd            2    loss    +68
44    +88        20 even        8    win    +88
45    +90        5 even        9    loss    +83
46    +92        9 odd            36    loss    +74
47    +94        20 even        29    loss    +54
48    +96        42 odd        21    win    +96
49    +98        5 odd            4    loss    +91
50    +100        9 even        24    win    +100
So, we are 50 into it and right on track - the one time I want a
failure to show the system, it works too well.  This is obviously
just standard progression, the use of the table comes into play
once we need to place more than a 50.00 bet. Which so far
has not happened.
51    +102        5 even        8    win    +105
52    +104        5 even        25    loss    +100
53    +106        6 odd            10    loss    +94
54    +108        14 even        35    loss    +80
55    +110        30 odd        36    loss    +50
(ask and ye shall receive, lol.)  Ok, now we need to get to
+112.00 for the next spin's goal and have 50.00 - (62.00 is the difference.)
The chart/index cards show that to get a win of at least
62.00, we need to bet 31.00 on dozen. We still follow the last outcome.
56    +112        31 3rd doz        2    loss    +19
Now, our next spin's goal is 114, we have 19 - (95 needed)
57    +114        48 1st doz        19    loss    -29
Now, we need 145 to get the goal, chart says 29 on lane.
Any lane can be used, I prefer to work from the center of the
table out, it really doesn't matter which of the two available lanes
you choose, as long as the last outcome (19) is included in it.
58    +116        29 lane 19-24    26    loss    -58   
59    +118        36 lane 25-30    14    loss    -94
60    +120        43 lane 10-15    19    loss    -137
Now, the next bet would need to win 259 so we find it on the chart,
which is 33 on square.  Choose the square bet, make sure the last
outcome (19) is included.
61    +122        33 sqr 19/20    3    loss    -170
                   22/23
62    +124        37 sqr 2/3/5/6    30    loss    -207
63    +126        42 sqr 29/30    31    loss    -249
                   32/33
64    +128        48 sqr  31/32    21    loss    -297
                                          34/35
Now, we need 427 - chart shows 39 street, include (21)
65    +130        39 street 19-21    34    loss    -336
note - we are in the midst of 14 straight, not betting over 50 and have
plenty of our bank left (664)
66    +132        43 street 34-36    2    loss    -379
67    +134        47 street 1-3    3    win    +138 (on goal)
were you scared ?  I've pulled from 33 straight, this was minor -
however, realise it could have gone on for 20, 30 more spins.
We didn't even get to the split bets or the straight up bets.
Any repeat will produce a win at that point.
Will continue this to 100 spins / +200 goal...
68    +136        5 odd            6    loss    +133
69    +138        5 odd            35    win    +138
(note last spin - after the loss, no progression was needed because our
goal was +138 and the minimum of 5.00 was all we needed to cover that.
After a long win streak, a loss will appear and the next spin also does
not need to change from 5.00 - as long as your goal amount for the next
spin is less than your current balance, no need for progression.)
70    +140        5 odd            19    win    +143
71    +142        5 odd            23    win    +148
72    +144        5 odd            22    loss    +143
73    +146        5 even        19    loss    +138
74    +148        10 odd        20    loss    +128
75    +150        22 even        4    win    +150
76    +152        5 even        1    loss    +145
77    +154        9 odd            8    loss    +136
78    +156        20 even        22    win    +156
79    +158        5 even        8    win    +161
80    +160        5 even        9    loss    +156
81    +162        6 odd            23    win    +162
82    +164        5 odd            33    win    +167
83    +166        5 odd            12    loss    +162
84    +168        6 even        20    win    +168
85    +170        5 even        11    loss    +163
86    +172        9 odd            9    win    +172
87    +174        5 odd            30    loss    +167
88    +176        9 even        8    win    +176
89    +178        5 even        32    win    +181
90    +180        5 even        1    loss    +176
91    +182        6 odd            7    win    +182
92    +184        5 odd            00    loss    +179.50
(sit through next spin, put that .50 with the other from earlier,
throw in a slot machine on the way out
----    -------        --------        13    -----    +179
93    +186        7 odd            20    loss    +172
94    +188        16 even        8    win    +188
95    +190        5 even        5    loss    +183
96    +192        9 odd            0    loss    +181.50
(there's another one)
----    ------        ---------        23    ------    +181
97    +194        13 odd        5    win    +194
98    +196        5 odd            9    win    +199 (almost)
99    +198        5 odd            21    win    +204
goal reached +200.00  end session, go to the bathroom, have a soda.
As you can see, it's very basic and simple to use - there are some
times of concern, but this is consistant with every other test run I have
done.
If you choose to use it, just be prepared to lose the bankroll obviously.
Like everyone knows, anything can happen.
I'm going to use it full time, but that doesn't mean the past results
will continue forever, or that odd losing streak of 30+ spins won't happen.
Just fair warning.  I will post my real play balances and if it does lose
at some point, believe me - I'll be the first one to complain.

Here's some interesting info to support this sysem, although it does
not prove it as foolproof, just some interesting facts.
In order to lose bankroll (1,000) and for this system to fail, each and every one
of the following has to happen, and in this order -

The number before play starts and the first four spins have to flip
for ex - odd/even/odd/even/odd or even/odd/even/odd/even, then...
the next one to two spins (varies) cannot be outcomes in the same dozen as the
previous spin.... then....
the next four spins cannot land in the same lane of 6 numbers as the last
outcome, then....
the next 3 spins cannot be in the same square that includes the last outcome,
then....
the next 4 spins cannot fall in the same street as the previous spin  then..
the next 6 spins cannot be a split of the last hit number  and then...
the next 7 spins cannot repeat the last outcome #.
Yes, this sounds absurd but this is the ONLY way this system will fail,
and yes - this string of events can happen I'm sure, as I'm sure I can be hit
from a falling apple in a field of grass and then see the future. 
LOL, just kidding, it can happen, I just wish there was a reverse system,
say I got 10,000 for every time the above Does happen.  I think I would be poor.
Anyway, enjoy and good luck if you use it, or test it for 100,000 spins and
show it fails (as I have done above).  I'm sure that sequence will show someday, but
will that 1,000 loss hurt the running balance of profit ?
It's the best I have played and it's the best thing I have come up with in
20 years.  If it is simillar to another system
or god forbid someone else thought this up, then accept my apology - I don't
read up on other people's systems, however popular they are - I prefer to
make mine from the beginning and see where it leads.



Ed
turbogenius@scientist.com

UPDATE :  This system has failed over long term testing.
It may be usefull for some as far as the info but changes need to be made before
use.
Ed

[Tomla021]

now thats a lot to digest Bayes
thanks