What is Variance?

[MartyV]

Hello from Montreal, Canada.

I have been studying roulette and baccarat on various forums over the last years. I have learned much and profited from the experience of many. So I thank all of you who, in each your own way, have enlightened me.

I frequently come across the term variance and often it is suggested to use variance to one's advantage. I have, however, never come across a good, understandable explanation of what variance is and how to use it to increase your chances of winning (or, at least, losing less).

So two questions:

1. What is variance?
2. How can I use variance to help me win more (lose less) at a negative expectation game like roulette or baccarat?

Can anyone help me understand this please?

Thanks very much!

- Marty

[falkor2k15]

It's an interesting topic... I like to know more about it myself...

Variance: on average we expect a sequence of outcomes to adhere to a certain kind of permutation, such as what happens with the law of the third. After 36 spins, 12 numbers should appear once, 12 repeat and 12 not appear at all.

When something wins more than what what we expect it's called "concentration", but when something loses under expected ratio then it's called "dispersion". These are the 2 sides of the same coin (positive and negative variance).

Permutations will always deviate from the expected average, but over time they should "regress towards the mean" as they say.

You could say that the law of the third is a basic study of how random behaves, and that variance is the more advanced study of random behaviour.

I believe the behaviour of variance is more stable when playing for Non-Random events, i.e. for repeats that have to happen after X spins (helps when aided by VdW).

There was a master named Manrique... he said all bet selections are the same - they are designed to break even over the long run notwithstanding the house edge - so the only way to win was "dispersion killing". Read more about it here:
link:://betselection.cc/gambling-philosophy/dispersion-killing/

Dispersion follows us around table to table, and we cannot escape it - but we can wait it out. So start betting after a virtual win... more rules in the topic above.

I think manrique could have relied entirely on dispersion killing and parachute progression, but in recent years Priyanka revealed the beginnings of how we might gain actual edge or predictability over Non-Random events despite unfair payout odds, so there's also ways of beating the wheel without dispersion killing. I suspect Pri uses both for added effectiveness.

[MartyV]

Thanks for the info falkor. Nice of you to have taken the time. I'll check that out.

- Marty