Is the "hot hand" real ? Prof Lisa Goldberg

[cht]

TurboGenius posted 2 videos by Prof Lisa Goldberg on Gamblingforums.

Excerpt from the 2nd video -

"The true believer in the Law of small numbers commits his multitude of sins against the logic of statistical inference in good faith." ----------- Believe in the Law of small numbers (0.30 - 0.48)

"One of the most fundamental elements of the work of Kahneman and Tversky is that there are many types of human error that are uncorrectable. You can be smart, you can be educated, you can be on the watch for them, you can try not to make these mistakes, and you will still make them anyway." -------Prof Lisa Goldberg (1.08 - 1.29)

"If you look hard enough you will find stuff. So, of course, if we keep changing the definition exploring new data sets again by pure chance we are going to get a result. That thing is data mining and beware." -------Prof Lisa Goldberg (2.55 - 3.09)

What is data mining ?

link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining

"However, in finite data sets, looking backwards in finite data sets we do see more reversals than continuation exactly because of the irregularities that we are looking at the end of the data set with the nature of the finite string. So it is possible and it could be tested...." -------Prof Lisa Goldberg (4.06 - end)

[Blueprint]

Thanks, cht.

[Alcocez]

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