The Bait and Switch

[nullified]

Hey guys, it's my first post here. I'm a long time member at VLS roulette forum, but there doesn't seem to be anyone there anymore. I posted the following today, but I'll post it here too:
=====================================================================================================================

Hey guys, I want your input on something that I've been working on lately.

I have part of a system in my head but I just can't seem to work out the final process, so I'll share what I've got.

As you know, when betting on the even chances, using a positive progression does not work. The reason positive progressions don't work is because the frequencies of wins are never able to outpace your losses.

For example, if you bet on red to streak you can reasonably expect in 1,000 spins:

     * 500 single appearances (RB)
     * 250 runs of 2 (RRB)
     * 125 runs of 3 (RRRB)
     *  62 runs of 4 (RRRRB)
     *  31 runs of 5 (RRRRRB)
     *  15 runs of 6 (RRRRRRB)
     *   8 runs of 7 (RRRRRRRB)
     *   4 runs of 8 (RRRRRRRRB)
     *   2 runs of 9 (RRRRRRRRRB)
     *   1 run of 10 (RRRRRRRRRRB)

Now, no matter what your progression is or how much you bet, you can never win more on the runs than you lose on the single appearances.

I've spent several months trying different approaches, including one which I thought was rather ingenious. You start the bet at $10 and bet on red after it shows. If you lose, you accept the loss (this would be the 500+ single appearances in the table above) If you win, your second bet drops down to $6. Why? Because you want to lock in those profits instead of betting them away.

Anyways, with a positive progression of 10-6-4-2-1-1 etc, you still cannot overcome the -5000 in losses you will eventually accrue. I made it very close - within $20, but always a loss.

Even though your profits are increasing as the red streak continues, the frequencies of the wins are always less than the frequency of losses.

Ok, so that doesn't work (too bad).

But,

Here is something I think might.

Notice that there are 10 odd numbers that are also red. This is an uneven distribution of odd numbers in the reds. That means there are only 8 red evens.

It's the same for the blacks. There are 10 even black numbers and only 8 odds.

Now, what if, as I'm following streaks of red, instead of betting on red, I bet on odd?

There are two obvious advantages that I can see.

First, I'm not subjecting my bets to the frequency problem that kills all other positive progression bets.

And second, I actually have a higher chance of winning an odd number if the streak continues for red.

How much better?

Well, because there are 10 odd reds compared to 8 red evens, there are 2 more chances for me to win over red evens.

That equates to a 55% chance of winning on odd compared to a 45% chance of losing on even - as long as I only bet while red is streaking.

Remember, I am achieving this advantage with $1 on an even chance covering 18 numbers. Normally you have a 48.6% chance of winning on even chances and a 51.4% chance of losing. But betting this way, you have a 55% chance of winning compared to a 45% chance of losing.

Now I realize that this is not the same as betting on any even chance and having a +10% advantage because I'm still betting on 18 numbers and can lose on 19.

But...!

...If I only follow the streaks of red (or black), and bet on odd (or even if I'm following black), then I always have a slightly higher chance of winning than losing.

Because no matter how you slice it, 10 red odds is greater than 8 red evens. And 10 black evens is greater than 8 black odds.

Now I have actually played this, with vary degrees of success, but I never really nailed down a great way to play it.

I usually just flat bet $5. When red shows, I bet $5 on odd. If red continues to streak, I have a 55% chance of winning and a 45% chance of losing.

Whenever the red streak stops, I still have a 45% chance of winning because there are 8 black odds that I can win on too.

Basically, whenever the colour changes, I follow it by betting on the corresponding even (for blacks) or odd (for reds) and accept the wins and losses as they come.

So, there are two things I'd like input on.

1. Am I missing something here? Sometimes you get so wrapped up in your own ideas that you miss a glaring omission that completely destroys your whole system.

2. Is there a better way to play this? Would playing like I mentioned at the very beginning be better?

Would appreciate your feedback.

[Bigbroben]

Hi,

I doubt it could make any difference.
Following a Red, the odds are the same of hitting H/L, R/B O/E. 
Indeed, 10/18 when a red appears, it is odd, but it cannot help predict the next result.  Even by playing only the red odds after a red, the overall outcome is negative.

At with Excel random, this was the case. 

[nottophammer]

BBB and nullified

As its red and black i'll thorw this in.
1st the numbers, just had these with Hogly and testing2 and he/she came back with testin3; so here's the #'s
11
18
13
5
35
19
17
30
27
20
30
32
3
7
24
30
0
35
36
21
20
30
31
2
14
13
26
2
12
3
27
14
36
7
12
23
9
5
20
29
13
13
15
16
14
12
36
2
0
12
18
20
1
25
22
13
17
10
11
22
32
32

[nottophammer]

Now the late great Turner did some work on this; the old when 12 show's mugs would say bet 21; the others 23-32 and 13-31
But this deluded mug says better to bet the colour comes. You have a look 13black 5red came; but some spins later theres 32 red now bet red not the 23 comes and you see 3 red hit, win

You can just watch this an when the opportunity throws up; bet

[nottophammer]

Good day general good to see you're alive and well

[nottophammer]

Rude general not even a hello

[Bigbroben]

Notto,

strangely just for the heck of it, a few days ago, without any high hopes, I was considering nrs 12/21/23/32/34 as a group where the difference between the two digits is 1.  13/20/24/31/35 would be the group of 2.  So on.

See how (at least on Rs), the 12/21/23/32/34 comes in batches.  There is actually only one instance where one of them (nr 12) stood alone, without members of the group within 7 spins (7x5nrs=35 <36).


No HG but some fun perhaps.

Add nrs 1 and 10 to the group?  Dunno...

[Bigbroben]

Rude general not even a hello

As the title says, it was just a bait.

[6th-sense]

Hey guys, it's my first post here. I'm a long time member at VLS roulette forum, but there doesn't seem to be anyone there anymore. I posted the following today, but I'll post it here too:
=====================================================================================================================

Hey guys, I want your input on something that I've been working on lately.

I have part of a system in my head but I just can't seem to work out the final process, so I'll share what I've got.

As you know, when betting on the even chances, using a positive progression does not work. The reason positive progressions don't work is because the frequencies of wins are never able to outpace your losses.

For example, if you bet on red to streak you can reasonably expect in 1,000 spins:

     * 500 single appearances (RB)
     * 250 runs of 2 (RRB)
     * 125 runs of 3 (RRRB)
     *  62 runs of 4 (RRRRB)
     *  31 runs of 5 (RRRRRB)
     *  15 runs of 6 (RRRRRRB)
     *   8 runs of 7 (RRRRRRRB)
     *   4 runs of 8 (RRRRRRRRB)
     *   2 runs of 9 (RRRRRRRRRB)
     *   1 run of 10 (RRRRRRRRRRB)

Now, no matter what your progression is or how much you bet, you can never win more on the runs than you lose on the single appearances.

I've spent several months trying different approaches, including one which I thought was rather ingenious. You start the bet at $10 and bet on red after it shows. If you lose, you accept the loss (this would be the 500+ single appearances in the table above) If you win, your second bet drops down to $6. Why? Because you want to lock in those profits instead of betting them away.

Anyways, with a positive progression of 10-6-4-2-1-1 etc, you still cannot overcome the -5000 in losses you will eventually accrue. I made it very close - within $20, but always a loss.

Even though your profits are increasing as the red streak continues, the frequencies of the wins are always less than the frequency of losses.

Ok, so that doesn't work (too bad).

But,

Here is something I think might.

Notice that there are 10 odd numbers that are also red. This is an uneven distribution of odd numbers in the reds. That means there are only 8 red evens.

It's the same for the blacks. There are 10 even black numbers and only 8 odds.

Now, what if, as I'm following streaks of red, instead of betting on red, I bet on odd?

There are two obvious advantages that I can see.

First, I'm not subjecting my bets to the frequency problem that kills all other positive progression bets.

And second, I actually have a higher chance of winning an odd number if the streak continues for red.

How much better?

Well, because there are 10 odd reds compared to 8 red evens, there are 2 more chances for me to win over red evens.

That equates to a 55% chance of winning on odd compared to a 45% chance of losing on even - as long as I only bet while red is streaking.

Remember, I am achieving this advantage with $1 on an even chance covering 18 numbers. Normally you have a 48.6% chance of winning on even chances and a 51.4% chance of losing. But betting this way, you have a 55% chance of winning compared to a 45% chance of losing.

Now I realize that this is not the same as betting on any even chance and having a +10% advantage because I'm still betting on 18 numbers and can lose on 19.

But...!

...If I only follow the streaks of red (or black), and bet on odd (or even if I'm following black), then I always have a slightly higher chance of winning than losing.

Because no matter how you slice it, 10 red odds is greater than 8 red evens. And 10 black evens is greater than 8 black odds.

Now I have actually played this, with vary degrees of success, but I never really nailed down a great way to play it.

I usually just flat bet $5. When red shows, I bet $5 on odd. If red continues to streak, I have a 55% chance of winning and a 45% chance of losing.

Whenever the red streak stops, I still have a 45% chance of winning because there are 8 black odds that I can win on too.

Basically, whenever the colour changes, I follow it by betting on the corresponding even (for blacks) or odd (for reds) and accept the wins and losses as they come.

So, there are two things I'd like input on.

1. Am I missing something here? Sometimes you get so wrapped up in your own ideas that you miss a glaring omission that completely destroys your whole system.

2. Is there a better way to play this? Would playing like I mentioned at the very beginning be better?

Would appreciate your feedback.

If your that confident on red odds you would definitely be parlaying  winnings for four or five spins..same with any number group do the maths 😎

[6th-sense]

Ie spread winnings out across the group every spin every win