Infrequent events

[VLS]

Translation

Infrequent events

Anything that could happen, will happen. To this statement you should add something: only if the amount of numbers in the sample is large enough.

Any combination is possible,  the point is, I repeat, that the amount of numbers in the sample is large enough.

Let me give you an example that any combination of roulette would be possible, but in order to catch it, I have not taken actuals, but a series of numbers that, until proven otherwise, are random.

In other words, do not follow any pattern. Such a numbers are the decimals of Pi.

Counting the decimals one by one, It is only valid the numbers from 0 to 9.

A combination like this:
777777777777 occurs from decimal number 368,299,898,266

Another combination as 999999999999 occurs from the decimal 897,831,316,556

111111111111 occurs from 1,041,032,609,981 decimal.

Looking for a series?

The consecutive serie 01234567890 we can find them several times in the first thousand two hundred and forty billion of decimals. For example: in the 53,217,681,704, and then it repeats in the decimal 148,425,641,592 like that several times.

Do you prefer to find another series? Look for it and you will find it for sure.

I have found in the decimals of Pi, my birthday and my identity card, dont tell you about how many millions of decimal I needed to find them...

Wanna be surprised? Look for a number of seven digits in the link below, and the program will tell you from the quantities of millions of decimal of IP, it appears that sequence:

link:://jclement.ca/fun/pi/search.cgi

Conclusions we can get of this: Any combination is possible, only if the amount of numbers in the sample is large enough.

In a practical way, in every system there is a fatal combination cracking the system and the bankroll.

If we give time to roulette, the fatal combination will come. Example of infrequent events, contrary to our interests:

Playing a martingale, it will take more or less time, but eventually we will finding the serie of 8 steps, destroying the bankroll and the profits from several days.

Good news: If we look for a rare event to win, so we will find it too, only if our bankroll can handle this.

Look for those rare event occurring at your games, where your BR can handle the drawdowns.

Of course I am not talking about rare events in millions of numbers.

I am talking about infrequent events for the player, but the ones you can find continuously in the casino.

Instead of playing daily with "frequent events systems" producing small gains everyday, but at some point this rare event comes and it cracks all the profits from weeks, play infrequent events. If they happen, it will allow you to dont have to go to the casino in weeks, and even though, It will keep the average profits at the end of the year.

How rare can be this event that we are looking for?

As always, the bankroll rules. Try to define the appropriate proportion between bankroll and the event that we look for, but especially dont get your the target for this phenomenon in one day. Trying to find rare events, are not made for impatient people (roulette neither).

Regards.

Goodhand.



Original:

Cualquier cosa que pueda pasar, pasará. Esta afirmación para ser cierta requiere añadir algo: siempre que el espacio muestral de donde se extrae, sea lo suficientemente amplio.

Cualquier combinación es posible, sólo es cuestión, repito, de que el universo del que se extrae la muestra sea lo suficientemente grande.

Voy a poner un ejemplo de que cualquier serie de ruleta sería posible, pero para ello, no he buscado una permanencia de casino, sino una serie de números que, hasta que no se demuestre lo contrario, son aleatorios.
Es decir, no siguen pauta alguna. Tal serie de números son los decimales de Pi.

Contando que los decimales son continuos, solo valen para el ejemplo números del 0 al 9.

Una combinación como la siguiente:
777777777777 se produce a partir del decimal número 368.299.898.266

Otra combinación como 999999999999 se produce desde el decimal 897.831.316.556

111111111111 se produce a partir del decimal 1.041.032.609.981.

Ã,¿Buscamos una serie?
La serie consecutiva 01234567890 la podemos encontrar varias veces en los primeros mil doscientos cuarenta mil millones de decimales. Por ejemplo: en el 53.217.681.704, y se vuelve a repetir en el decimal 148.425.641.592 así hasta varias veces.

Ã,¿Prefieren otra serie distinta? Búsquenla y seguro que la encuentran.

Yo he encontrado dentro de los decimales de Pi mi fecha de nacimiento y mi D.N.I., no les abrumo con los millones de decimales que he precisado para encontrarlos.

Ã,¿Quieren sorprenderse? Busquen un número de siete cifras en el enlace que pego a continuación, y el programa les dirá a partir de que cantidades de millones de decimales de PI, aparece esa secuencia:

link:://jclement.ca/fun/pi/search.cgi

Conclusiones que podemos obtener de esto: Cualquier combinación es posible, siempre que el espacio muestral sea suficientemente amplio.

Descendiendo al terreno de lo práctico, en cada sistema hay alguna combinación fatal que revienta el sistema y la caja.

Si le damos tiempo a la ruleta, terminará apareciendo esa combinación fatal. Ejemplo de suceso infrecuente contrario a nuestros intereses:
Quien juegue una martingala, tardará más o menos, pero acabará encontrando una serie de 8Pérdidas, que terminará con su caja y ganancias de varios días.

Buenas noticias: si buscamos un suceso infrecuente que nos haga ganar, también lo encontraremos, siempre que nuestra caja lo soporte.

Busquen en sus juegos que se produzca aquel suceso infrecuente que su caja pueda soportar.

Lógicamente no estoy hablando de sucesos tan infrecuentes como para hablar de millones de tiradas.

Me refiero a sucesos infrecuentes para el jugador, pero que pueden encontrarse continuamente en un casino.

En lugar de alimentarse diariamente con sistemas frecuentes que les producen pequeñas ganancias diarias, pero que en algún momento llega ese suceso infrecuente, que les revienta la caja y las ganancias de semanas, jueguen sucesos infrecuentes, que, de producirse, les hará posible que no tengan que ir al casino en semanas, y, aún así, mantener sus medias y beneficios al final del año.

Ã,¿Cuán infrecuente puede ser el fenómeno buscado?

Como siempre, la caja manda. Busquen la proporción adecuada entre su caja y el fenómeno que persiguen, pero sobre todo no se pongan el objetivo para ese fenómeno en un día. Perseguir fenómenos infrecuentes no es para impacientes (la ruleta tampoco lo es).

Reciban un saludo.

Goodhand.

Translated by: Jack Daniels
Original Author: Goodhand.

[TwoCatSam]

Rare events..............

It never fails:  When you find the rare event to bet on, the even rarer event will--sooner or later--destroy you.

I studied ten reds in a row: RRRRRRRRRR.  The same event is RBRBRBRBRB.  In fact, any ten combination of RB will be the same as ten R in a row.  So there is no need to wait for ten R.  Just identify any string of ten RB and you have your rare event.  And you will have lots and lots and lots of them.  In fact, you will have one every spin of the wheel.

Now, really, how rare are they?

Sam

[VLS]

Correct Sam!

If you say someone "dozen 2" missed for 37 spins, they will more likely say a dozen can't sleep so long, they have never witnessed such a thing, and the ones that do accept it will say it very rarely happens.

If you ask someone about what is consistent in roulette, they'll mention you things such as the "Law of the third", which states that out of a cycle of 37 spins one third of the numbers will show twice, one third will show only once and the other third won't show... a third being 12 numbers (= a dozen! not showing for 37 spins as one of the most consistent observed events in roulette).

[Bayes]

Absolutely Victor.  Great reply. 

In a way both are correct.  It's a little like the classic 'birthday problem' in probability which I mentioned in another thread recently.  A PARTICULAR dozen (ie; the 'standard' dozen, not just any 12 numbers) is indeed unlikely to sleep for 37 spins, but the probability of SOME 12 numbers sleeping that long is much higher, because there are a lot of ways you can choose 12 numbers from 37.

Similarly if you were to pick a particular birthday (say March 23rd), then the chance of someone having that birthday in a group of 23 people is very low, but if you don't 'restrict' the actual birthday (it could be Jan 1st. . . . Dec 31st), the chance that at least two share one is more than 50%.

This is why is doesn't really help to create 'artificial' dozens (or any other bet) with the intention of getting more betting opportunities on heavily sleeping groups.  This is what the bell curve tells you - there is really no limit to randomness.

[TwoCatSam]

With a "defined" dozen, any of twelve numbers can cause it to fall into the "win" column.  With a "rolling dozen" it's a whole nuther ball game.

So, then, what good is searching for "infrequent" events?

Sam

[Bayes]

So, then, what good is searching for "infrequent" events?

Sadly, no good at all.    But then, surely we already knew that?

@ Victor,

With your permission I'd like to post your reply (regarding the law of the third) on the other forum.   

p.   s.    I expect I will dismissed as one of the "negatives", but truly, I don't mean to be.    These are the facts that I have discovered, that's all.  They are there for anyone to find out for himself.   We would all love it to be otherwise.   

[VLS]

By all means Bayes.

As long as it isn't out of context and in full it is totally OK with me.

...and thanks for being active around here  

Cheers!