money management working with percentages

[hanshuckebein]

hi folks,

das anybody know a money management plan that uses/ works with percentages?

lets say I know that I will win at least 45% of my even money bets within a 150 spin window. is there a moneymanagement/ formula one could use that sort of "covers the bottom line"?

thanks for your input

cheers
hans :-)

[Firefox]

You can use Kelly betting.

The fraction of your bankroll you should risk on any try in a roughly even chance game = 2p-1

Where p is the probability of winning.

In the case of roulette p=18/37 so 2p-1 is 36/37 - 1 = -1/37 = -2.7%

The negative implies that your best strategy is not to bet at all, since it is a negative expectation game!

However let's assume your chance of winning was 52/100.

Now 2p-1 is  104/100 -1 = 0.04 so you should risk 4% of your bankroll on each bet.

If your chance of winning was 55/100 you should risk 110/100-1 = 10% of your current bankroll on each bet.

All the way up to a dead cert 2x (100/100) -1 = 1  or 100% of your bankroll.

This is really designed for a positive expectation game eg Sports betting where you have inside information, or advantage play where you have a calculated edge.

However, if you don't have an edge and still want to bet, and stay in the game for longest, or longer if you are lucky, you can bet 1% of your current bank roll. Or another strategy is just to make the minimum bet allowed.

If you want to risk your entire capital in a short period while having a chance of making some decent gains, then you could use D'Alambert or Labouchere progressions.

[Firefox]

Moving on to what you probably really wanted to know, covering bottom line if you can guarantee you will win 45% of bets, use a Labouchere series. It only requires you win just over 1 bet in 2 or about 35-40%  of bets. It's somewhat unrealistic because  how can you ever guarantee you will win 45%? But if you could, then Labouchere is the way to go. D'Alambert also performs well, even when a small majority of wins are against you eg 55%.

However, both these methods leave you in a big hole if the wheel is say 70/30 against you, even in a short period like 150 spins they will decimate your capital or cause its entire loss.

[hanshuckebein]

thanks for replying. 

this is not exactly what I'm after. I'm looking for something that relies on the percentage. in my flatbet testing I've always reached a profit within my certain spin range. so "leaving while in profit" would already do the trick. still I wonder if there is a way of calculating stakes knowing  one will end up with a certain minimum winrate.

could the "dilution formula" be turned into a mm plan?

[hanshuckebein]

deleted ... double posting]

[Firefox]

If you know in advance you will win 45% distributed across the 150, then Labouchere will give always give you a profit if you play to the end. Flatbet always will give you a loss if you play to the end.

As per my second post above.