Does random have limits?

[Anastasius]

To make one wrong ec guess is about 1/2 ... but to make 2 wrong ec guesses in a.row has a 1/4 chance  right ....

[Firefox]

Wrong guess on even chance

Without zero:

1 in a row 0.5
2 in a row 0.25
3 in a row 0.125

With zero:

1 in a row 0.5135
2 in a row 0.2637
3 in a row 0.1354

So about right, but zero worsens your chance slightly all the time.

[Anastasius]

I just dont understand  why people say missing once and missing 3 times for example are the same chance

[Firefox]

Most people in casinos and some people on this forum, have no clue about the most basic of probability theory let alone the more advanced stuff.

They will, for example, wait for four reds and then make a big bet on black because "black must be due", or they will make a big bet on red to "follow the wheel".

This is exactly what casinos want. Big bets. By exposing $1000 to the house edge, they pay $13.50 tax on that bet in the long run (A whopping $52.63 on a 00 wheel or $27.03 without partage on 0 wheel). By betting only say $10 they pay only $0.135 tax.

Yet there are very experienced but rather sad people here espousing the values of the Martingale, not realising the cash they are giving away the house by making large Martingale type bets.

This is how casinos make their money,  from these kinds of people.

[Blueprint]

Hey Firefox,

What is it that you're selling? 

[Firefox]

I have never sold anything and never will. You can however, have knowledge for free.

[Steve]

I guess this is a discussion that's been going on for over 200 years in some way or the other

It's a "discussion" because some people really don't understand basic math.

[Steve]

If you already had it "codified", you would have already done sufficient testing and know the result.

Usually knowing you have the HG happens AFTER you've coded and tested.

Almost weekly someone new contacts me proclaiming they have the HG and will take my challenge. None of them get past the first stage.  Except one guy who said he beat all my spins. He asked me to move the prize money into escrow. I agreed provided he would also put his "time waster fee" into escrow (what I get paid if his testing is inaccurate), which is a much smaller amount. He didn't proceed. I presume because he was full of shit.

Passsion, I have little doubt you're no different. But if i'm wrong and you're ready, let me know. I'm not particularly interested until then.

I suspect you might think you have something, but haven't tested properly yet. We've all been there.

[Firefox]

Mr. Steve, get ready!
As soon as I have a trustworthy person who can codify what I have designed, I will contact you to accept your challenge, the only thing I will ask is the 2 million balls, once proven, if you want to know what I am doing, you will have that accept my conditions.

passion roulette

What criteria is the prediction for your next bet based on, in general terms?

[precogmiles]

Yes there is.

And yes it is.

No there isn't

[Blood Angel]

/quote]

Because there are 9 different ways of spinning dozens in 3’s. You’ve allowed for three 0’s ( which may happen) and so it follows there must be a hit in final set if not before.