Newb query...

[woods101]

Hi Everyone,

Just like to say a big hello to all.  Have been learning a lot about roulette and probability from you guys and first would like to say thanks for all the  knowledge and discussion imparted on this site.

I have read and tested many systems of my own and some of others that I have found, and understand the mathematical rules that dictate ( in theory heheh!) that roulette cannot be beaten given the usual house rules that apply.

I fully comprehend (so don't ridicule me when you read further), the gamblers fallacy based on the belief that an event must be due because of certain past events.

I also realise that there are a lot of scammers and internet page hosters working pay-per-click websites or linking you to a casino to make money via adsense etc.  and also trying to sell you (or give for free) systems to try at said sites.  I shall reference one of them.


It's based on what I have read here and elsewhere that I ask the following questions. . .

I have come across a system on a commercial website that is based on an eleven stage progression that is claimed to have been created by some young maths greek.  It's basically a 'wait for 7 no-shows on a dozen and then bet a progression based vaguely on a fibi seq up to eleven stages'.  It's based on the fact that it would be rare for a doz to miss for more than eighteen times in a row.
. I thought what a load of bollox (17th century french monks apparently!) and thought firstly this is a site with commercial links which kills this.  Secondly- why wait 7 steps? -gamblers fallacy dictates it would make no difference ( in theory).  And you would lose the same ratio of placed bets whether waitng or not in the long term.  But. . .  i thought - lets try to find some stats on missed dozens.

I came across a site dedicated to the late Mr Oops run by some guys called xerxx(?) where there where statistics for missed dozens.  (i'm not linking sites from this post as not sure whether I can do that - google and you will find)
The stats seemd to imply that this system would work in the longterm, all be it slowly, based on the amount of dozens turning up between 8 and 18 times.  (first seven aren't bet on. Stop/loss is the nineteenth step).

Does the gamblers fallacy apply here,or am I miss-reading the stats at the xerxx site, or is Mr Oops getting it wrong?

Any help from any of you guys is greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.
Woods.

p. s.  Have just seem the attachment option at bottom of screen so have stuck the system here.  Mods please remove if illegal.  Thanks.

[woods101]

p. p. s.

- please don't take any of the advice in the above attachment with real money.  This must clearly be a scam/ tanker in the long term, I'm just trying to understand why.

Thanks
Woods.

[esoito]

Welcome. Enjoy your stay  

Dead right it's a scam!!

As soon as he states it works at a particular casino, and click here to download it, you know he's quite likely an affiliate collecting a return on your losses. Losses that his method will surely encourage...

I'm in the throes of finishing my analysis software.

Already I've found the dozens can skip (miss) over 30 times!!  

That was according to my analysis of 16 000 live spins from DublinBet.

So his notion of starting after 7 skips and cash cascades from every orifice, is going to lead to some interesting losses!

Still, I could be wrong. Often happens. 

[chrisbis]

Morning All.

In particular, I like this bit of the spiel in the scam instructions:-

[attach=#]

It really informs the reader!!

[chrisbis]

In all seriousness, it is and it isn't a scam.

Technically, you could win with it if all the cards go your way so2speak.

Its just a dishonest instruction, since the author never mentions Zero, nor wagering, nor play-through, no dozens sleeping for a long as Sleeping Beauty.

Any site, PDF I see now, I always run thro these people, and see how busy they are>>>>
[attachimg=#1]

And if you put this guys site in- (:,easyprofits.com), you get this report>>>>

[attach=#2]

Which tells me that he's not doing so well at the moment, traffic very low,
thus he's affiliate kick back, will also be diminishing.

Look out for a "Rebrand", from him, to capture a new and growing interest in On-line Roulette.

He's not as busy as this guy>>>>

This is from my email box, I like getting emails from this guy, he's shows the world how a scam should be done alright......................

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: Mark M##### <1200perday@googlemail.com>
To: chris <chrisbis36@yahoo.com>
Sent: Mon, 29 November, 2010 19:30:52
Subject: Chris ** Important Update** You can't miss this

Hi Chris,

Hundreds of you have been asking for more casinos to use the Money Pro system in. Due to this, I have been testing the system in loads of new casinos and have made an amazing discovery...

Last month, I began a trial with Winner Casino. And the results have been astounding. I have made more in this casino than in the 3 that I normally use (the ones in my original email.) Also you can go WAY over the Ã,£200 daily limit with this casino.

They have a generous starting bonus of 100% and if you deposit between Ã,£65 & Ã,£75, you will get a starting balance of up to Ã,£150.

Just take a look at my daily earning from this casino in the last 5 days.

Day 1 - Ã,£357
Day 2 - Ã,£442
Day 3 - Ã,£303
Day 4 - Ã,£523
Day 5 - Ã,£561

That's Ã,£2186 in 5 days! Now normally I don't go over Ã,£200 per day in one casino, but I suggest you go to at least Ã,£500 a day with this casino as they aren't detecting use of the system (I know this, because I have taken over Ã,£15,000 worth of withdrawals through them with no problem.)

All New subscribers to my email will get this as the #1 recommended casino.

Click on their link below and download the software now and get in before the crowd.

Winner Casino


Regards,

The Money Pro

Exchange House, 494 Midsummer Boulevard, Milton Keynes Buckinghmashire MK9 2EA UNITED KINGDOM

To unsubscribe or change subscriber options visit:
link:://:.aweber.com/z/r/?jIycrMxM7LSsjIyMnJzMbLRGtBwsTCyszKw=

Other names, web site, systems. ??

SiteReport this one, to see for Urself the type of traffic that can be driven his way,
and then just imagine the money Ã,£$E, that's flowing his way from
the casino's he gets, onto the viewers PC........................ Be amazed @ the earnings!!

[attachimg=#3]

[woods101]

Hi guys.

Hanks for the quick responses.  Thanks Chris for your info and yes I def won't be taking this guys advice seriously regarding the site/links etc and it's clearly an effort to make money fom an unsuspecting sucker.  Thanks also for the insite into internet traffic usage- v useful. 
Thanks also to you Esoito for checking and testing this.  What compelled me to look further at this with a view to use in a b&m casino was the statistics below:

hxxp: :. xerxx. se/oops/stats/seqth/skipdzcl. html

These statistics also show that you could have a skip sequence as long as 30 from one dozen, nut what intrigues me is looking at the xerxx statistics on 300,000+ numbers, is that it seems that the amount of wins between the 8th spin and the 18th spin, should leave you in profit based on the amount of losses that would happen from the 19th spin onwards.  I'm assuming the average amount won would be approx 3 units per played sequence against a loss of 200 units per played sequnce.  Looking at the above stats or yours or anyone elses for that matter, does this tally or am I getting something wrong?
I'm aware that this system originates from a scam website.  This is not what I'm interested in.  Primarily I am interested in the maths of this system as it seems to work to me.  I'm hoping someone can prove me wrong and show me the error of my ways as I'm having trouble doing this myself.

Thanks again.
Woods.

[esoito]

@WOODS

This might be of help. My beta-summary of 16 000 spins at DublinBet. (Software's almost finished)

SUMMARY OF SKIPS for Dozen 1-12:
TOTAL FOR SKIP  0: 1608 [0 means no skip - it won on the next spin]
TOTAL FOR SKIP  1: 4358 [1 means it won after 1 loss...and so on]
TOTAL FOR SKIP  2: 2942
TOTAL FOR SKIP  3: 1985
TOTAL FOR SKIP  4: 1407
TOTAL FOR SKIP  5: 950
TOTAL FOR SKIP  6: 695
TOTAL FOR SKIP  7: 449
TOTAL FOR SKIP  8: 353
TOTAL FOR SKIP  9: 353
TOTAL FOR SKIP  10: 179
TOTAL FOR SKIP  11: 151
TOTAL FOR SKIP  12: 114
TOTAL FOR SKIP  13: 102
TOTAL FOR SKIP  14: 96
TOTAL FOR SKIP  15: 78
TOTAL FOR SKIP  16: 67
TOTAL FOR SKIP  17: 56
TOTAL FOR SKIP  18: 54
TOTAL FOR SKIP  19: 42
TOTAL FOR SKIP  20: 22
TOTAL FOR SKIP  21: 17
TOTAL FOR SKIP  22: 16
TOTAL FOR SKIP  23: 9
TOTAL FOR SKIP  24: 4
TOTAL FOR SKIP  25: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  26: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  27: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  28: 3
TOTAL FOR SKIP  29: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  30: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  31: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  32: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  33: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  34: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  35: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  36: 0

[woods101]

Hi Esoito,

Thanks for your help and data.  I've looked at this deeper now (using your stats above) and have realised the maths is against ya all the way.  don't waste anymore time testing mate, but thanks for the data on the misses.  I'll be looking at the data more to see if I can get anything out of it.

Once again, thanks mate.
Woods.

[esoito]

Pleasure's all mine, woodsy.

These bl***y scammers present a good case for retrospective birth-control, don't they? 

[woods101]

Absolutely!   :)