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Good results. Is it sufficient data or could it be fluke? Math opinions?

Started by BellagioOwner, Apr 18, 09:30 AM 2023

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BellagioOwner

Quote from: Herbyx on Apr 19, 05:43 PM 2023But your data look good, you can tell more what you are doing ?

It has to do with retracements on the main trend. But can't get into more details on that. Anyway. We'll see how it will continue performing.
You can edit a bad page but you can't edit a blank page. Try things out! Don't procrastinate or wait perfect timing! Just start what you wish to do finally!

BellagioOwner

Quote from: klw on Apr 19, 06:03 PM 2023Perhaps you can shed a bit more light on stop losses versus take profits , spread on instrument , commission payable , swap charges if any. We can then see if your 5.3% advantage is viable.


StopLoss and TakeProfit are the same sizes. Risk Reward 1:1
I tested it on 5 minutes timeframes which makes small distances in pips for SL and TP. So indeed spread could be an important proportion on M5 timeframe.
It's tested on 3-4 different instruments/pairs so I can't tell a specific spread. On average I would say it's around 1,5-2 pips. I traded on major pairs.
The average TP/SL in the 5-minute chart is around 6-10 pips. So, the spread is enough in comparison. But I guess it could work on higher timeframes as well that spread analogy to TP/SL is less impactful. Yes, it will create less trades but I can search on more instruments so ok.
There is no commission because there is spread. I haven't found any big broker that has AND commission AND spread.
And no swap as well since it is a small timeframe and intraday trades. They finish on the same day. Maybe on H4 or D1 there could be some. But still, the swap in some pairs is positive and in others is negative so overall it won't affect much the balance

I'll probably paper test it for some period but do you think the 5.3% advantage is viable? I believe so
You can edit a bad page but you can't edit a blank page. Try things out! Don't procrastinate or wait perfect timing! Just start what you wish to do finally!

klw

You wrote --

    (  I'll probably paper test it for some period but do you think the 5.3% advantage is viable? I believe so )

I'm not going to comment further on my previous post , you have your views.

You don't need to do any more paper testing, your sample size is more than enough, why don't you do a walk forward test with small stakes. Does your broker do micro lots ? This is the best way to test your theory and please come back with your results.

Cheers.




Still

Yes it's probably viable for as many trades, and as many pairs you have tested.  It would be a good basis for a live test with a modest amount of capital.  You could then start testing how much spread might affect your results. 

What are you using for charting? Tradingview?

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