Fibonacci on ECs - the Fear-Progression

[winkel]

In another Thread I gave this answer, and was asked to open a new thread with further explanations

2. If you are crazy enough to bet on ECs  make it to a bet-row of fear

This is:
as long as you lose just bet 1 unit
we know that a Fibonacci will need 2 hits back to back or WLW

example we bet on red - we meet a row of 12 blacks
we lose 12 units
bet 13: 1 unit  - win and payout 2 means +1 and total -11
now we look at the row: it says ..... 8  13  21 ....
next bet will be 13
-- in a win: +13 total +2
-- in a loss-win: -11-13 +21= -4
-- next bet: 5 units
and so on

[winkel]

If we compare Martingale with Fibonacci we find that Fibonacci is longer than the MG:

MG:
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2028
4056
8112 mostly here are table-limits reached. 14 stages!

Fibonacci:
1
1
2
3
5
8
13
21
34
55
89
144
233
377
610
987
1597
2584
4181
6765 20 stages

but we know, that we need a WW or a WLW situation to get any win (mostly the bet-amount of the before last +1; means win at 21 and win at 34 will win 13+1)
with MG we need just 1 win but we will win only 1 unit.

[winkel]

Two problems appear:

1. Streak of more than 20 losses
2. only one win and another 20 losses following

Most MG-betters presume they will lose their bet-decision ( otherwise they don´t had to use the MG   )

If we are convinced that we are that unlucky that we will find a bad streak as soon as we start to gamble, we need a kind of insurance.

This is to lose at lowest possible bet and win on high bets.

lowest possible loss is 1 unit.
So as long as we lose we bet 1 solid unit again and again.

Imagine we find a row aof 20 losses, that´s nearly the longest watched row of black or/and red or without a win if we are just on the other chance.

so we have lost 20 units by betting 20 times just 1 unit.
we keep on beting 1 unit until we win.

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win


[winkel]

Now we use gambler´s fallacy and are convinced that 20 losses 1 win and 20 losses is out of any possible thinking.

Now we just have to wait for our WW or WLW-Situation

best possible situation is
20 losses
2 wins

but if we keep on betting just 1 unit we won´t get into plus

so we have to calculate:
basic is Fibo-Row 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55

after our first win in spin 21 we have a bankroll of -19
the bet-size to bing us to any plus has to be >19
In the Fibo row 21 is >19
so we would bet 21

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 21 2 Plus


[winkel]

but we are unlucky and lose that 21units-bet again

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40


so we now start with the Fibo-Row from that stage:

next bet is 34

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40
23 34 34 -6 second win but no Plus


now we have two chances:

1. we are still frightended and don´t believe in luck and wanna bet the minimum needed unit-size.
Fibo goes like: 3 5 8
our loss is 6, wo we bet 8

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40
23 34 34 -6 second win but no Plus
24 8 8 2 PLUS

If we don´t trust our luck we just bet 5

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40
23 34 34 -6 second win but no Plus
24 5 5 -1 third win no plus


but we could live with -1 and keep on betting 1 unit expecting now a row of wins.

[GLC]

Thank you Winkel for this very interesting post.

It does take some of the sting out of the fibonacci.

[Fripper]

Thanks winkel, it is an interesting post, I will look into it some more.

At spin 22 we have this:

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40

Why do we bet 34 units here? We are down -40, why don't we bet 55units to be in plus?
Is that an individual choice? If one want it safer or not?

[winkel]

Thanks winkel, it is an interesting post, I will look into it some more.

At spin 22 we have this:

Code Select Expand

spin bet w/l bankroll comments
19 1 -1 -19
20 1 -1 -20
21 1 1 -19 first win
22 21 -21 -40

Why do we bet 34 units here? We are down -40, why don't we bet 55units to be in plus?
Is that an individual choice? If one want it safer or not?

we only calculate after end of losing streak.
then we start betting original Fibo
so after 21 follows 34 then 55 etc.

br
winkel

[vundarosa]

In another Thread I gave this answer, and was asked to open a new thread with further explanations

-------------------

winkel, I've been playing the same concept on dozens for some time and it works wonders...

I flat bet the same dozen till it hits. Then I half the number of spins it took to hit and start at the closest Fibo. So if it took me 10 spins with no hit then hit at spin 11, i start at 10/2=5u on that same dozen. Like this I only need one hit to be in profit...I choose a hot dozen to start with.

Thx for the great idea!

Vundarosa

[foogus]

That really is thinking outside the box, thank you very much Winkel.