Odds are Never Dynamic

[Gizmotron]

In the beginning of a scenario, one might calculate the odds of a certain event. The fact is, as soon as one gains more information about that situation, they may need to re-calculate the odds.

If we are told that a woman has two children, and one of them is a girl, what are the odds that the other child is also a girl? Considering this new child independently, one might expect the odds that the other child is female are 1/2 (50%). By using mathematician Gerolamo Cardano's method of building a Probability space (illustrating all possible outcomes), we see that the odds are actually only 1/3 (33%). This is because, for starters, the possibility space illustrates 4 ways of having these two children: boy-boy, girl-boy, boy-girl, and girl-girl. But we were given more information. Once we are told that one of the children is a female, we use this new information to eliminate the boy-boy scenario. Thus the probability space reveals that there are still 3 ways to have two children where one is a female: boy-girl, girl-boy, girl-girl. Only 1/3 of these scenarios would have the other child also be a girl.[13] Using a probability space, we are less likely to miss one of the possible scenarios, or to neglect the importance of new information.

From: link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness

Consider this double dozen or double column betting scheme:

(2 - 1), (4 - 2), (8 - 4), (16 - 8 )

Every time the lesser bet wins the position in the progression is suspended. The current bet is recovered. So you repeat that same bet. Use it to carry insurance while betting on a single dozen or column. In every big bet win the return is 3 units.

[Twisteruk]

Yes, I use that to play baccarat

Also anyone seen the the TV show Deal or No Deal ?


At the start you are given a box, its odds of havin the £250,000 in are 21/1

So the odds on one of the other players having the £250,000 is 1/21, much more favorable

Thats why its ALWAYS best to swap ure box at the end, shud you be given the chance to do so.