Statistical propensity & diminishing probability.

ego · Apr 22, 05:43 AM 2012

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Statistical propensity & diminishing probability.

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I just could not forget about this topic made by Snowman.

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I quote:

Some roulette facts..

Here's the real deal on past spins influencing future spins. The following information is based on a REAL ROULETTE WHEEL WITH A LIVE DEALER. On these wheels the rotor did NOT alternate spin direction- (every other spin like they do in EU).

The following information does NOT pertain to an RNG based wheel or the random game of roulette. In other words, no electronic machine.
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I can tell you the facts, based on my experience, as they pertain to a real wheel. Here they are, like them or not.

1. If a number has hit within the last five spins, it really is slightly more likely to hit on the next spin.

2. Simply playing the last five numbers to have hit will slightly reduce the house edge, especially when the wheel speed is close to the speed of the previous spin. In rare cases, you can get a small edge on some wheels playing this way.

3. The dealer's pick up and release of the ball is not random, like someone on this board had stated. As a matter of fact, it will quickly spike out beyond five standard deviations in a short period of time for most dealers, if you take the time to measure it.
-Keyser
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I feel that I have provided a satisfactory amount of information given the circumstances.

Here's a small example below.

30000 trials. (This is just one wheel. Each wheel and sample varies some. Overall, the effect is real.)(Wheel make is a Huxley Mark Series with moveable fret ring). (Date 2007 to 2009)(Right handed)

Code Select


Betting the last seven numbers to have hit.
Edge reduces to -1.29

Max loss run 37
Max DD 4871 
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Betting the last five numbers to have hit. 
Edge reduces to -1.79


Max loss run 52
Max DD 4209

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Betting the last three numbers to have hit.

Edge .02

Max loss run 85
Max DD 1555
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Betting the last number only.

Edge 5.17
Max loss run 85
Max DD 1555

I have explained why it can and does happen and I have provided enough information for you to make an informed decision on your own. If you feel that you need further prove, then perhaps you should go out and collect some spins on your own and test them.
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In most cases, you can't get an edge. All you can do is reduce the house edge. When some other effects come together, you can get a small edge.
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Now Laurance comment this topic and i quote:
Suddenly, everyone's an expert on Roulette.

I agree with everything Keyser has said, except one thing:

Even in the situation he describes, past spins don't "influence" future spins. It's just that the same physical system that produced those past spins will tend to produce future spins in the same manner. Because of the short term nature of biases, this tends to manifest best within the first few spins. I have about 150,000 real roulette spins and in all but a handfull of cases, the house edge is reduced just by betting the past 5 spins. In a few cases, a true edge is realized.

However, there are two things Keyser isn't telling you:

1) It only works (or, has the potential to work) on wheels with a Chi-Square above 55, and

2) Trying to exploit the bias (i.e. playing) will negate the effect should you start to win. In fact, should you start to win and draw attention just betting the past 5 numbers, you will - in all probability - now be playing into a significant negative edge.

Roulette's a female dog. To truly beat the game, it helps to be left handed, have OCD, and have masochistic tendancies.

One man's experience.

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I read many similiar topics about the subject and still i find this to be the very best among does.
Here can you see the frequencies of repeats witch has its peaks at 6 7 8 ...
I read that the very best attack window would be around 3 to 4 attempts.

I test this using true random numbers with out any present bias - just average fluctation.
But i add neigbors toward the method mention above.
Flat betting.

TRNG 2012 04 22. 300 Trails. +402 -180 = + 222 Units
TRNG 2012 04 21. 300 Trails. +441 -252 = + 189 Units
TRNG 2012 04 20. 300 Trails. +330 -288 = + 42 Units

Kattila · Apr 23, 05:49 AM 2012

Nice work like allways Ego ..........

I play only some DS/VB /movements/ and pivot based systems but i can t stop thinking
on others like this ones (based also in yours and others ideas):
What do you think about this ones , have some chances ?

A.

Wait few virtual Ls betting the last 6 numbers, then bet the last 7, 8 ,9.
If lose go to next levels...(optional is wait again some virtual Ls between levels).

Levels:

1.

1. 0,10 x 6 -0,60 +3
2. 0,10 x 7 -1,3 +2,3
3. 0,20 x 8 -2,9 +4,3
4. 0,20 x 9 -4,7 +2,5

2.

1. 0,20 x 6 -5,9 +1,3
2. 0,30 x 7 -8 +2,8
3. 0,40 x 8 -11,2 +3,2
4. 0,50 x 9 -15,7 +2,3

3.

1. 0,60 x 6 -19,3 +2,3
2. 0,70 x 7 -24,2 +1
3. 1 x 8 -32,2 +3,8
4. 1,40 x 9 -44,8 +5,6

4.

1. 1,60 x 6 -54,4 +3,2
2. 2 x 7 -68,4 +3,6
3. 2,50 x 8 -88,4 +1,6
4. 3,50 x 9 -119,9 +6,1 stop lose or....

5.

1. 4 x 6 -140,9 +3,1
2. 5 x 7 -175,9 +4,1
3. 6,50 x 8 -227,9 +6,1
4. 9 x 9 -308,9 +15,1
-----------------------------------------------------------

Another one :

B.

Level 1 .....bet the numbers (back to back) on position 5th,6th,7th,8th
Wait a few virtual Ls ( around 5) then start to bet on that 4 numbers.

Ex:

34
12
22
6
8
14
36
29 bet numbers 6,22,12,34
2 L1, bet 8,6,22,12
23 L2 , bet 14,8,6,22
18 ...so on...virtual Ls ( 5Ls) then start to bet 5th,6th,7th,8th
4
9
1
19

1. 0,10 x 4 -0,40 +3,2
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8
2. 0,10 x 5 -0,90 +2,7
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8,9
3. 0,10 x 6 -1,50 +2,1
if lose bet the numbers on positions 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
4. 0,10 x 7 -2,20 +1,4

Level 2

bet on numbers/position 5,6,7,8
1. 0,10 x 4 -2,60 +1
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8
2. 0,20 x 5 -3,60 +3,6
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8,9
3. 0,20 x 6 -4,80 +2,4
if lose bet the numbers on positions 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
4. 0,20 x 7 -6,2 +1

Level 3 ( so on...add numbers like above)

1. 0,30 x 4 -7,4 +3,4
2. 0,30 x 5 -8,9 +1,9
3. 0,40 x 6 -11,3 +3,1
4. 0,50 x 7 -14,8 +3,2

Level 4

1. 0,50 x 4 -16,8 +1,2
2. 0,70 x 5 -20,3 +4,9
3. 1 x 6 -26,3 +9,7
4. 1 x 7 -33,3 +2,7

Level 5

1. 1,20 x 4 -38,1 +5,1
2. 1,30 x 5 -44,6 +2,2
3. 1,70 x 6 -54,8 +6,4
4. 2 x 7 -68,8 +3,2 stop lose here or...

Level 6

1. 2,20 x 4 -77,6 +1,6
2. 2,70 x 5 -91,1 +6,1
3. 3,30 x 6 -110,9 +7,9
4. 4 x 7 -138,9 +5,1 stop or....make new level

Another one :

C.

Bet back to back the numbers on position 6th,7th,8th so 3 numbers
and also add one neighbors from each side so total 9 numbers to bet,
of course some numbers will change because we add the new one + the two neighbors.
Progression from 0,10 and around 13-15 steps.

cheers

Kattila · Apr 23, 05:54 AM 2012

Quote :

***I test this using true random numbers with out any present bias - just average fluctation.
But i add neigbors toward the method mention above.
Flat betting.

TRNG 2012 04 22. 300 Trails. +402 -180 = + 222 Units
TRNG 2012 04 21. 300 Trails. +441 -252 = + 189 Units
TRNG 2012 04 20. 300 Trails. +330 -288 = + 42 Units

***

Please explain this because i didn t understand exactly what to bet.
Bet the last 5 +neighbors , flat bet ?
Or bet the numbers on position (back) 6th,7th,8th and the two neighbors
from each one ?

thanks

Robeenhuut · Apr 23, 06:46 AM 2012

Quote from: Kattila on Apr 23, 05:49 AM 2012
Nice work like allways Ego ..........

I play only some DS/VB /movements/ and pivot based systems but i can t stop thinking
on others like this ones (based also in yours and others ideas):
What do you think about this ones , have some chances ?

A.

Wait few virtual Ls betting the last 6 numbers, then bet the last 7, 8 ,9.
If lose go to next levels...(optional is wait again some virtual Ls between levels).

Levels:

1.

1. 0,10 x 6 -0,60 +3
2. 0,10 x 7 -1,3 +2,3
3. 0,20 x 8 -2,9 +4,3
4. 0,20 x 9 -4,7 +2,5

2.

1. 0,20 x 6 -5,9 +1,3
2. 0,30 x 7 -8 +2,8
3. 0,40 x 8 -11,2 +3,2
4. 0,50 x 9 -15,7 +2,3

3.

1. 0,60 x 6 -19,3 +2,3
2. 0,70 x 7 -24,2 +1
3. 1 x 8 -32,2 +3,8
4. 1,40 x 9 -44,8 +5,6

4.

1. 1,60 x 6 -54,4 +3,2
2. 2 x 7 -68,4 +3,6
3. 2,50 x 8 -88,4 +1,6
4. 3,50 x 9 -119,9 +6,1 stop-loss or....

5.

1. 4 x 6 -140,9 +3,1
2. 5 x 7 -175,9 +4,1
3. 6,50 x 8 -227,9 +6,1
4. 9 x 9 -308,9 +15,1
-----------------------------------------------------------

Another one :

B.

Level 1 .....bet the numbers (back to back) on position 5th,6th,7th,8th
Wait a few virtual Ls ( around 5) then start to bet on that 4 numbers.

Ex:

34
12
22
6
8
14
36
29 bet numbers 6,22,12,34
2 L1, bet 8,6,22,12
23 L2 , bet 14,8,6,22
18 ...so on...virtual Ls ( 5Ls) then start to bet 5th,6th,7th,8th
4
9
1
19

1. 0,10 x 4 -0,40 +3,2
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8
2. 0,10 x 5 -0,90 +2,7
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8,9
3. 0,10 x 6 -1,50 +2,1
if lose bet the numbers on positions 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
4. 0,10 x 7 -2,20 +1,4

Level 2

bet on numbers/position 5,6,7,8
1. 0,10 x 4 -2,60 +1
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8
2. 0,20 x 5 -3,60 +3,6
if lose bet the numbers on positions 4,5,6,7,8,9
3. 0,20 x 6 -4,80 +2,4
if lose bet the numbers on positions 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
4. 0,20 x 7 -6,2 +1

Level 3 ( so on...add numbers like above)

1. 0,30 x 4 -7,4 +3,4
2. 0,30 x 5 -8,9 +1,9
3. 0,40 x 6 -11,3 +3,1
4. 0,50 x 7 -14,8 +3,2

Level 4

1. 0,50 x 4 -16,8 +1,2
2. 0,70 x 5 -20,3 +4,9
3. 1 x 6 -26,3 +9,7
4. 1 x 7 -33,3 +2,7

Level 5

1. 1,20 x 4 -38,1 +5,1
2. 1,30 x 5 -44,6 +2,2
3. 1,70 x 6 -54,8 +6,4
4. 2 x 7 -68,8 +3,2 stop-loss here or...

Level 6

1. 2,20 x 4 -77,6 +1,6
2. 2,70 x 5 -91,1 +6,1
3. 3,30 x 6 -110,9 +7,9
4. 4 x 7 -138,9 +5,1 stop or....make new level

Another one :

C.

Bet back to back the numbers on position 6th,7th,8th so 3 numbers
and also add one neighbors from each side so total 9 numbers to bet,
of course some numbers will change because we add the new one + the two neighbors.
Progression from 0,10 and around 13-15 steps.

cheers

Hello Katilla

Big fan of repeats systems. Did you test it extensively? In 12 spins you have a good chance of getting repeat but sometimes they repeat not within first 6 numbers. Not easy to put stop-loss to be in profit. Few virtual loses limit the number of games you can play.
One is certain - you can not play any repeats system without stop-loss. There will always be a bad streak that could wipe you out.
For me an optimal period to wait is 5 virtual loses but i bet on all repeats in last 36 spins - usually between 8 and 12 (including numbers that hit more than 3 times) Stop loss 5 spins - usually 100 u.

Regards

Kattila · Apr 23, 01:22 PM 2012

Hi RH,
I didn t tested that ones from above because no time right now , maybe in the next weeks,
anyway i know will not work long term(will tank like any system/progression)maybe only for make few units and go to DS/VB play.....
And i know your system ....

........

Right now i am more interested in the way that Ego play/test his system, Flat Bet....

cheers

ego · Apr 24, 12:03 AM 2012

Code Select



Nr.     Sector.

2      2
29    10

34    3
7      10
26    0
30    5
2      2

11    4      -15    
29    10    +6    

4      1
32    0
25    2
22    9
16    7

25    2    +21

10    6
22    9
28    10
12    11
36    4

35    11    +21

8      5
19    1
12    11
34    3
18    9

22    9     +21

previos 5 using sectors with 3 numbers and attack window three attempts.
+21 +6 -9 -45

News:

Statistical propensity & diminishing probability.

ego

Kattila

Kattila

Robeenhuut

Kattila

ego