The Discarded: an horizontal Alembert approach

[Bigbroben]

Here's what I've been up to lately, a new heretic gf:

Let's define Alembert-type progression as a ''vertical'' system: pile up the progression, add units on the bet.  Up as you lose, down as you win.
Let's adapt the idea to a ''horizontal'' point of view.  More numbers as you lose, less as you win.  Flat all the time.
*******

Let's pretend a perfect shot at roulette is one unit on one nr and a hit. 36x bet.  Maximal profit possible, perfect.  Progression level 1 successful.
Let's say "progression 2" is to bet on 2 nrs after a loss, and so on: prog 3-4-5-6 up to 35.

The idea is to reduce the amount of numbers used to make a win.  (Do you really need units on that old number if it's not making you win?)  It is surprising sometimes how many repeaters come within a limited range).  Accumulated, the 1u and the second and the third(...) make a difference.
It will also assure you will lose less on next spin than won on the previous., just like a classic +1/-1 prog.  Still, the more nrs bet, the higher the winning chances, unlike ECs that stay at 18/37 all the time.

On hits, your next bet is reduced of one unit, the one on the oldest nr.  On good games you'll be up 100 or 200u, sometimes betting 12 nrs, then a few spins later 14, 10, back and fort in the "progression".  You can stay  below 18 nrs for quite a while.

***********

There are 3 steps in  this type of game:
1) stop at desired goal (50,100,200u);
2) stop at 18 and see if in profit;
3) and step 3.

Step 3 is a grind.  It applies to when bets are placed on more that 18 nrs.  You need more than one hit to ''reimburse'' your bet.   Only remove the old nr when you won more than was bet.
19: 2 hits (2x17u) then reduce.  Up to 24: 2 hits (2x (36-24) =24)
25 to 27: 3 hits.
28: 4 hits.
29 to 30: 5 hits.
31: 7 hits.
32: 8 hits.
33: 11 hits
34: 17 hits
35: 35 hits.  Stop.


If played from 1nr to 35 nrs, max loss is 630 (1+2+3+...+35), if 35nrs appear in 35 spins.  Feel free to start/end at other nrs.  I still wonder if to start at 12 uniques in row is better than to start at 1.  Level 35 might never be reached if game is back into profit at step 3.
Eventually, if unlucky in the beginning, luck comes back.  As hits are added, the floor ( max loss of 630) goes up and you cannot lose more than this.

So step 1 is enough if a game starts good and goal is achieved before level 18 fails.  Step 2 (stop at 18) is safe to stop at if goal is not achieved and still in profit.  Step 3 should only be used as recovery mode and stopped as soon as in profit or break-even.  The steepest winning curve really is at step 1, below 18nrs, so no reason really to prolongate step3.

I'll post the games right away in the next minutes.

[Bigbroben]

Game 1 to 6, I only tested until step2 ( 18nrs).  I think a started as soon as 2 repeaters showed.  I continued the other ones (7-16) out of curiosity until the end, 35nrs failed.

Game 1:


Game 2:


Game 3:


Game 4:


Game 5:


Game 6:


Games 5 and 6 have lost at step 2, without achieving decent profit goal.  Should have continued with step 3, hey, did not know then...

[Bigbroben]

Game 7:
started at spin 2 instead of waiting.
It did not climb as crazy as other games, still achieved 50u.

At 18:  -46.


And the end, when 35nrs failed:


So it did come back above zero eventually, which is a good thing.  When level 35 fell, was at -160, although total br was 630.  Inbuilt stop-loss.

Game 8: finished level 18 at 40u, spin 49, got a dip earlier but recovered greatly.  Shown  not until 35 fell, but earlier:


Game 9: stopped at 18, should have continued, just for curiosity:

[Bigbroben]

Game 10:
good example of a step 3 recovery:
level 18 failed at spin 43, -72u.
Reached -140, climbed to +140, 35 failed at -40u.


Game 11 was just amazing.

207u at spin 46, with only 11 nrs:


302u at spin 60, 11nrs still:


413u at spin 87, 12nrs:


At step2 (18nrs failed):


End:

[Bigbroben]

Game 12:


Game 13:


Game 14:


Game 15:


Game 16:

[Bigbroben]

So in 16 games:

Step1:
at 100u: 9 games.
at 50u: 12 games.

Step 2 in red: 5 games (disregarding step 1 achieved or not).
Step 3 recovered to profit: 2/2.

To be tested further: starting when? 1nr, 10 nr?  Depends? 1st repeater, second? else?

Looking forward to pimp this little game...

[Bigbroben]

All following games have a goal of at least 50.

Game 17: 51u  at step 3
Game 18: 55u at step 3
Game 19: 50u at step 3.

Game 20: 57u at step1, 19 spins (reached 103u at spin 82, step3, 180 at spin 96)

Game 21: 55u at step1, 18 spins ( reached 112 at spin 81, step 3)

Game 22: 63u at step 1, spin 15

Game 23: failed, -258u step 3, spin 149

Game 24: 63u at step1, 15 spins, reached 112u at spin 40, 216u at spin 61.  Step2 ( 18nrs fails) at 174, high of 260.

Game 25: 72u at spin 17, 114u at spin 52, 205u at spin 82.  Step 2 at 154, high of 236 in step1.

Overall, 206u profit in 10 games if stop at goal of 50, +399 if played until step2.  Feels safer to stop at step1, though.

I like it so far, will keep updated.

Game 24 below:

[Bigbroben]

Was game 25 above.

[Bigbroben]

Another 10 sessions.
Started at spin 12 with at least 1 repeater.

10/10 achieved the 50u goal in step1.
6 reached 100, the same 6 reached 200 in step1.
5 would have finished step2 below 0.
Longest session was 33 spins.

Score if goal is:
50u: 598
100u: 347
200u: 854
Step2: 742.

Stats are piling up; so far so good.

[Bigbroben]

Next 10 sessions:

All were started at spin 13 and minimum 1 repeater.

7/10 reached 50u profit goal.  The other 3 were in negative territory at step2, so I continued step3.  All 3 games recovered to positive at spins 56, 46 and 40 (with 15nrs, surprisingly, first time it went from above 18nrs back down to below and stayed).

6 reached 100u in step1 ( one was 126 at spin 24 with 9nrs, another 121u at spin 25 with 9nrs).
None reached 200u.

Average game length, counting the first 12: 32 ( from 20 to 56).
Average nrs betted on when reaching 50u+: 14 (from 10 to 20).

Score for these 10 games if goal is:
50u:  461u
100: 695u
At step2 ( 18nrs failed): 128.

Will continue.  This looks promising, really!

[Bigbroben]

3rd session of 10 games:

this one was truly amazing.



8/10 made it to 50u+.  The others recovered back to positive territory at spins 68 with 21 nrs, and spin 146 with 29 nrs.
8/10 made it to 100.
7 went to 200.
2 went up to 400.

Score for the session if goal is:
50u: 471
100u: 778
200u: 1363
Step2: 1233

Following: the best and the worse of session 3.

The best:


The worse with significant recovery: from -192 to +1.


I am now ready to give it a real catchy name and start the legend!