I dont know how I never failed math class....

[Big EZ]

I am not to good at math so can someone please humor me and show/tell me how to do the following...


I am trying to find out how to convert the percentage I came up with into saying it will happen "1 in x amount of times". I do not know how to do this can someone please help.


Relevant info:


I know that the formula for streak length is (24/38)^x
so if x=38 (number of spins)
then the percentage for a non repeat is 2.60765729e-8 multiplied by 100 and that is
0.00000260765%


Now my question is how do I write this as in 38 spins a chance of a non repeat will be "1 IN x TIMES"??

Also how can I find that out as well for 1million + spins..


Thanks in advance for helping out the math challenged people lol

[Big EZ]

anyone???

[TwoCatSam]

EZ

Get this question to a gentleman named Bayes.  He is a math person if ever there was one.

Sam

[Drazen]

I know that the formula for streak length is (24/38)^x

Formula for streak length or non repeating in x spins is acutally different depending for how many numbers or which "section" you want do calcualte.

You didn't said how many numbers, but from your formula I presume you mean on double dozens? (24/38)??

Theoreticaly there is no limit how many spins some event can sleep as we know that bell curve has no limits. (never touches x axis)

But there is simple formula which can give you this answer.

If you want to know how many spins something can go without repeat you should use this formula:

N= Z² (1-p)/p

N= number of spins you are looking for
p= probability of an event you are looking for
z= z score-it is a measure of standard deviation which tells you how much event deviates from normal distribution (average)

Ok so for american wheel probability for two dozens in a row is 24/38 x 24/38= 0.3988

And as you are interested how many spins two dozens can go without a repeat, for the z score in upper formula you should take maximum z score which is about 4.0-4.5 from Bayses computer simulations.

So lets take 4.3 as a middle value and we get

N=4.3²  x (1-0.3988) / 0.3988

N= 18.49 x (1-0.3988) / 0.3988

N= (18.49 X 0.6012) / 0.3988

N= 11.116 / 0.3988

N= 27.87

So we can say 28 spins is the number double dozen can go without repeat.

Best

Drazen

[nottophammer]

Drazen
like the formula, but how many in reality does it go. Longest i've seen take on rng is 34,often

[Drazen]

Well it is a bit suspicious if you see 34 in a row often.. Maybe you should change RNG? 

Cheers

[nottophammer]

sorry drazen
the 34 spins is for single dozen. my apologies must read the article better