Understanding the problem

[Steve]

A player sits at a table to bet on coin tosses. The rules of the game are simple:

1. Bet whatever you want

2. If the player wins, they get back their original bet x 2 (1:1 payout)

3. If the player loses, they lose their bet.

4. Once in every ten times (on average), the player is forced to lose their wager, whether they correctly guessed the coin side or not. The player can never know WHEN they will have a forced loss.

If you understand it correctly, you'll understand the game is clearly rigged, and the player can expect to gradually lose the more they play.

In attempt to profit, the player tries the following:

a. Increasing bet size after losses. This doesn't work because he can either get lucky and win back losses, OR make his situation even worse and lose even more.

b. Waiting for a streak of HEADS and then bet TAILS. Maybe TAILS is "due". It doesn't work because he is still winning and losing the same amount of times.

c. Waiting for a streak of HEADS and then bet HEADS. Maybe HEADS is "hot", or a repeater. It doesn't work because he is still winning and losing the same amount of times.

No matter what the player does, and how much he bets, he is still disadvantaged. The game rules keep chipping away at his money.

At this point, he is a "system player". He's tried the typical approaches, but they didn't work.

Then he has an idea to find a tosser (coin tosser) that tends to flip in a predictable way. So the player analyzes the tosses for lots of tossers (coin tossers), and finds a specific tosser that appears to flip the same side as before an inordinate proportion of times. This allows him to "increase the accuracy of predictions" (change the odds) and have a long term advantage.

Now the player has become an "advantage player". He is understanding why his old approaches did nothing to help him. And now he is applying real and valid science to give him an edge.

The system player phase is where most players are at. And they criticize advantage players, because advantage players try to explain why specific approaches don't work. The system players just think the APs are being arrogant. The APs understand the system players simply don't know any better.

System players: speed up your learning. You are wasting your time and being the casino owner's fools. You don't need to use traditional advantage play. But you do need to change the odds one way or another. This whole notion of "just win in your lifetime of spins" is rubbish. It could happen with some luck, or you could lose big. Any system designed to win just in your lifetime of spins is no different to a progression with random bet selection. So if this is what you're trying to do, skip the complex bet selection - random is random no matter how you look at it.

If you dont understand all this yet, you eventually will if you keep playing. Then you'll look back and understand your mistake, and wonder why you didnt catch on later.

[Proofreaders2000]

So the problem lies with the croupier?  So find
a 'system friendly' croupier and problem solved?

[Steve]

Well yes but not exactly. The tosser (coin tosser- ha im childish) is just one variable that determines the outcome. The problem is the payouts are UNFAIR.

If the payouts were fair, then you could just keep playing forever and your bankroll would stay about the same. But with the disadvantage, your bankroll slowly depletes. The only way you can change this if you have a way of getting some edge back (increasing accuracy of predictions).

[sentinel3]

Well yes but not exactly. The tosser (coin tosser- ha im childish) is just one variable that determines the outcome. The problem is the payouts are UNFAIR3.

If the payouts were fair, then you could just keep playing forever and your bankroll would stay about the same. But with the disadvantage, your bankroll slowly depletes. The only way you can change this if you have a way of getting some edge back (increasing accuracy of predictions).

I think you are too hung up on this fair unfair payout thing Steve.

The player has options at his disposal to balance things in his favour. Im in agreement that indeed you must know that you will win within a certain threshold. Like I said to you a while back. If I know I will virtually ALWAYS win at least 50% of the pie. I.E 2 out of 4 games. 5 out of 10 etc. It no longer matters that the payout is unfair.

I simply factor in money management to make sure. As long as I get my 50% of winners the vast majority of the time. I make overall profit.

The unfair payout means nothing. I hit my minumum win to loss ratio. And i balance all the negatives that come with this game called roulette.