Quadruplet PHP Cycles - extinguishing deadlocks

[falkor2k15]

I've given up on Roulette and moved over to Quadruplets, which is essentially a guessing game based around 4 Quads with a payout of 1:3. Depending on how the quads repeat they give birth to a series of 10 Quadruplets - "Options" for short.

The equally-likely Quads repeat @ 10 different "Cycle Length + Repeat Order/Position" combinations. The result of both the CL & Order are combined to give 10 options, which are secondary "outer" cycles comprised of up to 10 standard "inner" Quad cycles.

This game has no house edge, and will break even like Bet Voyager Roulette.

Despite being a break even game, there are some amazing patterns forming naturally as mothers give birth to different kinds of off-spring...

What I don't like about Roulette is that if we want to catch a repeat on a Number Cycle, we bet "mechanically" like this:
12... bet 12
12, 36... bet 12+36
12, 36, 18... bet 12+18+136
......and so on.

This can go up to a Cycle Length of 25 before we finally get a repeat (though CL6 is the average as you know). By then your bankroll would be totally exhausted!! We can move to streets if we choose to and do the same thing, but then we can encounter a deadlock at Cycle Length 12. The repeat is still guaranteed to happen, of course, but If we bet all 12 streets then we gain nothing! It's just not viable...

That's why I moved over to Quadruplets! 

Despite having 10 options, here there's no CL10 to similarly cause us a deadlock ala 12 streets! And you may not even encounter a CL9 within your lifetime. That means you are pretty much guaranteed a win within 8 Quad Cycles.

The reason there is no CL10 is that our pigeons are no longer equally-likely. What's more: there are no repeats being defined on Options 7-10 in this game - though I can only offer you a lifetime guarantee on that since it does (rarely) occur in large data tests.

Our next task is to avoid Lengths 7-8, so that all repeats fall within the manageable span of Length 6. When we apply a mechanical method to the quadruplets we can quite easily catch all Length 7-8 repeats, but there are, on a few occasions, times where we miss them and - rather than encountering deadlocks (no such thing in this method!) - we could potentially break the bank instead, depending on our money management.

The opening Quad cycle also contains a lot of information and can tell us whether we will possibly reach CL7-8 (options) or encounter an early repeat.

Length 8

CL2 32...1
CL2 52...1
CL3 25...1
CL2 12...2 (no early win)
CL3 12...2
CL3 15...2
CL3 45...3
CL1 41...4
CL2 62...5
CL4 59...5
CL3 15...6
CL3 15...6
CL1 21...6
CL1 31...6 (no early win)
CL3 13...6
CL4 18...10

Length 7

CL2 13...1 (no early win)
CL3 14...1
CL4 210...1
CL3 65...1
CL4 67...1
CL4 17...1
CL2 12...2
CL4 27...2
CL1 21...2
CL3 24...2
CL2 43...2
CL2 42...2
CL4 810...2
CL4 27...3
CL4 17...3
CL3 15...3
CL2 23...3
CL1 31...3 (no early win)
CL4 29...3
CL4 28...3
CL4 37...3
CL3 36...3
CL3 36...3
CL3 46...3
CL2 12...4
CL2 13...4
CL3 14...4
CL2 43...4
CL4 38...5
CL4 47...5
CL2 13...6
CL2 12...6 (no early win)
CL2 13...6
CL4 19...6
CL2 62...6
CL4 310...6
CL3 35...9

The only time the mechanical system fails to hold for the above is when the opening cycles are within pigeon groups 1-2 (options 1-3). And most cycles have to be at least CL1 for this to happen.

More later.... 

[Blueprint]

Guessing = waste of time.

[Turner]

WTF

[Logician]

I've given up on Roulette and moved over to Quadruplets, which is essentially a guessing game based around 4 Quads with a payout of 1:3. Depending on how the quads repeat they give birth to a series of 10 Quadruplets - "Options" for short.

The equally-likely Quads repeat @ 10 different "Cycle Length + Repeat Order/Position" combinations. The result of both the CL & Order are combined to give 10 options, which are secondary "outer" cycles comprised of up to 10 standard "inner" Quad cycles.

This game has no house edge, and will break even like Bet Voyager Roulette.

Despite being a break even game, there are some amazing patterns forming naturally as mothers give birth to different kinds of off-spring...

What I don't like about Roulette is that if we want to catch a repeat on a Number Cycle, we bet "mechanically" like this:
12... bet 12
12, 36... bet 12+36
12, 36, 18... bet 12+18+136
......and so on.

This can go up to a Cycle Length of 25 before we finally get a repeat (though CL6 is the average as you know). By then your bankroll would be totally exhausted!! We can move to streets if we choose to and do the same thing, but then we can encounter a deadlock at Cycle Length 12. The repeat is still guaranteed to happen, of course, but If we bet all 12 streets then we gain nothing! It's just not viable...

That's why I moved over to Quadruplets! 

Despite having 10 options, here there's no CL10 to similarly cause us a deadlock ala 12 streets! And you may not even encounter a CL9 within your lifetime. That means you are pretty much guaranteed a win within 8 Quad Cycles.

The reason there is no CL10 is that our pigeons are no longer equally-likely. What's more: there are no repeats being defined on Options 7-10 in this game - though I can only offer you a lifetime guarantee on that since it does (rarely) occur in large data tests.

Our next task is to avoid Lengths 7-8, so that all repeats fall within the manageable span of Length 6. When we apply a mechanical method to the quadruplets we can quite easily catch all Length 7-8 repeats, but there are, on a few occasions, times where we miss them and - rather than encountering deadlocks (no such thing in this method!) - we could potentially break the bank instead, depending on our money management.

The opening Quad cycle also contains a lot of information and can tell us whether we will possibly reach CL7-8 (options) or encounter an early repeat.

Length 8

CL2 32...1
CL2 52...1
CL3 25...1
CL2 12...2 (no early win)
CL3 12...2
CL3 15...2
CL3 45...3
CL1 41...4
CL2 62...5
CL4 59...5
CL3 15...6
CL3 15...6
CL1 21...6
CL1 31...6 (no early win)
CL3 13...6
CL4 18...10

Length 7

CL2 13...1 (no early win)
CL3 14...1
CL4 210...1
CL3 65...1
CL4 67...1
CL4 17...1
CL2 12...2
CL4 27...2
CL1 21...2
CL3 24...2
CL2 43...2
CL2 42...2
CL4 810...2
CL4 27...3
CL4 17...3
CL3 15...3
CL2 23...3
CL1 31...3 (no early win)
CL4 29...3
CL4 28...3
CL4 37...3
CL3 36...3
CL3 36...3
CL3 46...3
CL2 12...4
CL2 13...4
CL3 14...4
CL2 43...4
CL4 38...5
CL4 47...5
CL2 13...6
CL2 12...6 (no early win)
CL2 13...6
CL4 19...6
CL2 62...6
CL4 310...6
CL3 35...9

The only time the mechanical system fails to hold for the above is when the opening cycles are within pigeon groups 1-2 (options 1-3). And most cycles have to be at least CL1 for this to happen.

More later.... 

This quadruplets that you are talking about: are they related to the quads on the roulette table layout? If they are not, what are they and where are you getting them from? It is not clear from your post. Maybe you mentioned it, but I missed it.

[falkor2k15]

Yeah, they are related in the sense that they are 25% also, and break even in the long run ala BV.

This idea is not so crazy since Priyanka used 6 Dozen Options in 3 of her videos and featured it in her infamous green spreadsheet. 10 options is better because a repeat can be forced within about 8 cycles - always leaving at least one empty pigeonhole.

[falkor2k15]

Aight... Guys, this is how you kill off a Cycle Length 9 - 0.02% chance of encountering during our lifetime - we expect up to CL8 max.


All other games (CL5-CL8) are automatic winners and profiteers.

I will compare 1 million spins playing Quadruplets (CL5-CL8) with playing numbers (CL20-CL25). That's the first extreme loophole we can exploit - and I am guessing it will result in more profit on Quads than Numbers.

Following that the next test will bring in the "jump back" trick I spoke of, which should then increase the profit tenfold!

But there's more: A repeats framework as sophisticated as Quadruplets opens up a 2nd extreme event that we don't usually have access to with a standard repeats framework.





The cycle began with a group 2 (a group 3 starting partition would be even more ideal). Nevertheless, by betting to match Group 2 repeat/unique or Group 1 unique the cycle would have already won on the extreme 2 event before we even started betting for the extreme 1 event. Anyhow, we are getting ahead of ourselves here... so I'll bring that feature in at the end... Manz not ready; you get me, like? Manz don't know, innit... all in good time. 

I think there's only one way unique & repeat indicators might possibly help us:

If you play only 4 games in your lifetime and you wanted to win all of them. You could sit around waiting for 20 virtual losses on betting numbers (1s to becomes 2s) and then start betting with a progression. You would then be pretty much guaranteed to get a win within the next 5 spins, but it would involve waiting your whole life for it to happen.

But if you refer to my quadruplets topic you will see that you can arrive at a similar extreme situation by only having to wait for 8 cycles:
1 3 6 2 7 8 9 4 5.... now bet all and guaranteed a win.

You aren't winning through prediction but by waiting for an extreme situation that is a bit more predictable than X amounts of reds in a row to be followed by an (independent) black.

And you don't win on events that are more extreme than other less extreme events - you win (over a series of spins) because you have encountered the most extreme event.

It's still an incredible amount of waiting time - though not as much as 20 numbers bets. The cycles are helping you keep track of all different combined bets - real or virtual - of different ratios/payout odds.

If I get a win on order 1 I can carry over the last 8 uniques to the next game and be in the same situation still:
1 3 6 2 7 8 9 4 5.... 1

3 6 2 7 8 9 4 5 1...
I can't do that after 22 reds in a row followed by a black.

So that helps to maintain an extreme situation and reduce waiting time between games.

And since the pigeons are not equal with quadruplets, if we begin a new cycle defined by options 4-10:
6...

We are then already at another extreme situation where we could bet options 1-5 (covering 6) and guarantee a win on a unique (mostly) instead of a repeat and within the house limits.

So that's the next direction I'll be taking my testing and simulations.

Incidentally, Dyksexlic said we should have less pigeonholes than pigeons, such as SAME or DIFFERENT for a repeat, but I already tested and this doesn't help.

Generally speaking, what you are saying is correct: we cannot use triggers, and every spin is independent. But there comes a time where independence becomes exhausted and outcomes start to drop off the chart as part of the most extreme events (not events that are more extreme than less extreme events - but the MOST EXTREME). And this can be proven through testing.

Let's say 1 million spins represents your lifetime playing Roulette. We can look back in hindsight and see that everything was a break even game. However, no matter which set of 1 million spins you take the maximum cycle length for the first repeat on numbers is always around the CL25 spin mark, and it never fluctuates as extreme as 20 - 30. Now, possibly over trillions of spins you may get closer to 30 - but never in your lifetime.

Therefore if you play those CL20+ games - the repeats framework can track and indicate when you should start betting. And this trigger happens only a few times within your life. All other kinds of triggers - rightly so - have no effect and do not guarantee a win in 5 spins, but the most extreme triggers I refer to are of a more special kind and come with a lifetime guarantee.

Now, the repeats framework that can accurately help us track extreme events can be made more sophisticated and highlight additional extreme events with the possibility of reducing waiting times using special "tricks" akin to winkel's "jump" back in GUT.

In the Quadruplets universe the "numbers CL25" counterpart is CL9, which is 23/157730 = 0.02% (with an empty CL10 pigeonhole!)


Therefore, you can play from about CL5 (maybe CL4) and guarantee profit:


That's 11.6%!! A massive increase over what is achievable using a basic repeats framework. Now, if we use the "tricks" that I mentioned then we can increase beyond that 11.6% to improve our life.

By using a more sophisticated framework such as Quadruplets we introduce additional extreme events that are not apparent in a basic framework:


Above when a cycle begins with a group 4 pigeon (Options 7-10) we are guaranteed either a repeat on the same pigeon or one of the group 1-3 uniques (within the house limits). Now, the stats of a cycle being defined by group 4 is hardly worth waiting for even during a typical lifetime. However, we can no doubt employ more tricks to increase it. By rights we should just be able to start a new cycle whenever we encounter a single appearance of group 4 and start to bring in the profit. That would easily take us up to 10%. Cycles beginning with group 3 may be exploitable too - I haven't checked yet. But you can start to see the possibilities here and begin to understand a different perspective/direction we may take to go beyond a fool's game of hot/cold. Here we are not betting just hot, just cold or even both together; we are making use of the framework to guide us towards the most extreme events based on a lifetime personal permanence.

There's nothing theoretical or speculative here. You take any 1 million spins and look back at them - always a win in, say, 5 spins. There's your empirical evidence and starting point for the journey I am taking that I hope will lead to a new understanding of Roulette. Maybe have a read back about what I said: the rare events are limited by the non-random framework you choose. You cannot go looking for events if you don't have the appropriate framework for tracking them etc. So this is a whole new way of playing - like tapping into free energy:
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=20490.0

[falkor2k15]

I'm going to continue this tomorrow...

So far I got 3,192 unit profit over 100K spins for extreme event 1 (without any optimisations added yet to boost the profit).


That means after 1 million spins this first run should make $31,920 profit with a BR of only about $600 before optimisations.

Also interested to see how number repeats (CL20-25) will compare tomorrow.

Have attached WIP so far (need to open in Firefox because IE and Chrome will be too slow to open).

Standard number cycles only made 1320 profit compared to Quadruplet cycles, which made almost TRIPLE that amount in 100K spins:




I showed you how we could kill off CL9 (0.02% chance of occurrence) with a maximum unit size bet of 395 coupled with more betting opportunities:


Number cycles counterpart is CL25 requiring a maximum of 678 unit size bet to kill it off and with fewer betting opportunities, alas:
18   1   18   -18
19   2   16   -56
20   4   8   -136
21   10   14   -346
22   25   4   -896
23   69   1   -2483
24   207   1   -7451
25   678   7   -24401

= FIRST EVER PROOF THAT WE ARE APPROACHING THE HG AND MAY EVEN END UP FLAT-BETTING AND WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is only the intro.... big tingz to come as these test runs go through a process of maturity.

[Taotie]

Pigeon pie sounds good to me.

[falkor2k15]

This hasn't worked out as expected with various issues. By pushing towards CL9 I actually encountered 3 x CL10s during the 1 million spins. But what's really bizarre is that they were followed by further CL10s immediately afterwards in 2/3 cases:

[falkor2k15]

It's happening for a lot of CL9s too. Those last 3 CL10s went Order 1,2,10, so the outer order is increasing each time during a long cycle length (and the position decreasing).

[Tinsoldiers]

Day 1 - FIRST EVER PROOF THAT WE ARE APPROACHING THE HG AND MAY EVEN END UP FLAT-BETTING AND WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Day 2 - things didn’t  turn out as I expected.
Day 3 - hey I have the hg
Day 4 - I am working towards one.
Day 5 - mr. Watson, I have cracked the code.
Day 6 - my tail is between my legs.
Day 7 - I can see myself sipping a prosecco in my own island.
Day 8 - I didn’t realise I was sipping my own p1ss. 
Day 9 - you are all going to pay me a thousand dollars for a piece of my holy grail.
Day 10 - can you please lend me your hg for a few quids.
Day 11 - FIRST EVER PROOF THAT WE ARE APPROACHING THE HG AND MAY EVEN END UP FLAT-BETTING AND WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Day 12 - I think you now know how the next 11 days are going to be. 

Wheels of the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round all day long. No wonder you refer to cycles a lot in your post.

[falkor2k15]

At least I'm trying my best instead of rehashing old ideas!

There definitely appears to be a "magical relationship" between 2 outer cycles - based on principle C at least. However, it still resulted in break even, so I'm currently investigating the concept under the more basic "3 EC options" universe. I've always thought 2 cycles were independent.

[Tinsoldiers]

At least I'm trying my best instead of rehashing old ideas!

Are you? It doesn’t seem though. You seem to be stuck in some kind of cycle.

[falkor2k15]

Are you? It doesn’t seem though. You seem to be stuck in some kind of cycle.

I think everyone is stuck in a break even game despite short term wins here and there, but ultimately eaten by the house.

Quadruplets has failed based on CL10 and other failed concepts, but this research is continuing under the parachute topic where the aim is to target the opposite to rare events - more numerous and higher ratio events through non-random frameworks:
link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=20579.0

I believe this to be the closest towards the HG so far based on a gradual recovery that gets cheaper and more certain as time goes on. However, I think hedging can also help - is perhaps the final frontier - but I think we have to accept there is no direct edge. Again, the answers should be found soon. This is heading in the right direction for sure. We may not be able to avoid a killer permutation, but I am starting to believe we can avoid all killer combinations - so long as we stick to combination bets.