House Edge Don't Matter

[Steve]

How is winning relative?

How does stopping play make a system work?

[Scarface]

Just curious of what most people think.  If you were playing on a wheel, without zeros, with no house edge at all could you win long term?

Here are the rules:  there are no rules.  You have the right to switch bet selection...use progressions, stop loss, etc.  Basically, you can choose or change your bet selection at anytime.  You can use any money management you want.

Can you win long term on a wheel with no house edge?

[Steve]

I assume normal betting limits apply. Your bankroll will mostly hover at break even.

Sure if you use progression, the swings will be more pronounced, but youll end up the same place. Progression is a like a loan that eventually gets repaid.

[gizmotron2]

How is winning relative?

How does stopping play make a system work?

It works if you know the conditions of your play as it goes along. Like for instance you can know if you are experiencing a massive losing streak. You can know if you are in a win streak. Well, you should at least know those two things. Stopping while digging a hole is just common sense.

[gizmotron2]

House edge is just an average that your wins and losses will tend to conform to. It won't force you to only have losing streaks. You can flat bet only, and target your win streaks by using a two level flat betting method. I know that it is not pure flat betting. It's not a progression either.

[Scarface]

Maybe the math says it will break even.  But its hard to believe that good money management would not help win long term on a zero edge wheel. 

[gizmotron2]

Reducing variance is really over rated. What matters is the discrepancy between odds and payouts. Or more specifically probability vs payouts.

I agree completely. Variance is just there. The inequality of the payout is just there too. I can kill the casino with the very same thing that kills almost all system players. There is a sequence of death that takes out even the best devised systems where blind rules walk the player right into a perfect sequence that lines up just right in order to kill it. It does not matter much what the average loss rate is or even the fact that the payouts are not fair. To beat the casino you need to win more bets than you lose while playing even chance bets of 18 numbers selected to win. It's so simple. There is a way to do that too. It takes skill. Most people will say that that is impossible. Well that's good news for me. I hope they keep thinking that for years to come. There is such a thing as a sequence of life that equates to a sequence of winning.

[Scarface]

I assume normal betting limits apply. Your bankroll will mostly hover at break even.

Sure if you use progression, the swings will be more pronounced, but youll end up the same place. Progression is a like a loan that eventually gets repaid.

I disagree.  I think a player that uses a positive, up as you win, progression would fair alot better than a flatbetter or a negative progression player.

On a non zero wheel, the chance a flatbetter will win or lose 200 units will be 50%.  A positive progression player will also lose 200 units 50% of time, but will win 500 or more units the other 50%.  For the negative progression player, it will be the opposite...losses will be greater than wins.

Assuming all 3 players play the exact same strategy, for the same duration.  If we were to look at 100 samples and compare, flatbetting will hover around even.  Positive progression player will see greater wins than losses.  Negative progression player will see greater losses than wins.

[Richard]

House edge is Alpha and Omega.  Otherwise, Everyone can make perfect system.