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Using Common Vocabulary When Discussing Your System Etc...

Started by The General, Feb 06, 09:40 PM 2019

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The General

In order to effectively communicate with each other everyone needs some common vocabulary. I keep reading where you guys confuse each other especially the way many of you use the word "repeaters". When describing your bets to each other, try using the following format instead.


1. Describe your "rolling bet horizon". A rolling horizon can be any value like 1,2,3, 37, 38, etc... or even 100000 spins. Any duration that you choose.
2. Describe your "betting threshold" as being the number of hits required below, at, or above expectation.

Now here's an example below.

"Bet on every number that has hit at expectation within a rolling horizon of 37 spins."
This would mean bet on every number that has hit at least one or more times within the rolling 37 spin range. If the number hasn't hit, then there would be no bet. It's essentially the same thing as betting every number that has hit frequency of 1/37 or stronger. As soon as the number drops below expectation on the 37 spin horizon, it falls back off. A rolling horizon can stretch over thousands of spins.


Another example below.

"Bet on every number that is one hit above expectation within a rolling horizon of 37 spins." Since "at expectation" means at least one hit, then one hit ABOVE expectation means two hits. So in this example the player would be betting on every number that has hit TWO or more times within the rolling horizon. It's essentially the same thing as betting every number that has hit frequency of 2/37 or stronger. As soon as the number drops below that expectation on the 37 spin horizon, it falls back off as a bet.

I hope this helps you guys. 8)

-The General
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Steve

.. or better yet, express everything as math. It's universal language, not open for interpretation, and (if you have all variables) the answer is absolute.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
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Bigbroben

Yes.


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Firefox

Does anyone think a rolling bet horizon of less than about 800 spins or bet thresholds less than 3 standard deviations above expectation are worth looking at (expectation = n/37(or 38) SD = SQRT (npq)  )

I keep on seeing repeaters discussed  in the context of rolling bet horizons of 37 spins which seems statistically meaningless to me.

The General

Quote from: Firefox on Feb 07, 07:12 AM 2019
Does anyone think a rolling bet horizon of less than about 800 spins or bet thresholds less than 3 standard deviations above expectation are worth looking at (expectation = n/37(or 38) SD = SQRT (npq)  )

I keep on seeing repeaters discussed  in the context of rolling bet horizons of 37 spins which seems statistically meaningless to me.

We largely agree.  I can see some exceptions to it, but not if a player is only looking at raw numbers on random wheels or RNGs.  The law of the third stuff on random wheels is just plain silly yet so many posters are buried in meaningless short sample tests that are skewed and curve fitted.
These days very very few people can grasp what's statistically relevant, and what's not.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

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