Powerplay

[buffalowizard]

Some may like to try this... inspired by jekh from another forum.

Personally, I can't sit around waiting for 74 spins to get a hit, so have shrunk his method down to accommodate the streets instead.
It has elements of repeaters and a couple of cycles, is easy to track and non-stressful to play, relying on the mildest progression imaginable. So all good?

Simply wait for a street to repeat within a 3 spin frame.

Then bet that street for 12 spins.

No hit? Raise to 2 units and bet for 12 more spins.

You will be surprised at the hit rate. Most sets of 100 spins I have looked at, end in the plus

Best of luck

BW

[buffalowizard]

An example of play here...straightforward, effective.
If you lose the second cycle that means you're -36 units.
Simply retrack and carry on, eating away at those losses. The wins will recover.


2
2     <a repeat straight away. betting opportunity here. bet street 2 for twelve spins
5
1
10
9
8
8
3
3
10
8
7
11      <loss, up it to 2 units for another twelve
5
5
3
9
7
7
3
12
3
9
9
2      <win...just! loss of 14 units
8
11
3
6
10
6       <trigger on street 6, bet for twelve spins at 1 unit
7
11
10
5
9
11
11
6       <win, down 10 units overall
11
11     <trigger right away, bet 11
7
3
4
9
3
4
2
2
10
11     <win, 8 units down. lets try and get this in the plus by end of session
11    <some may see this as trigger point, I prefer to draw line under last cycle and start anew
3
4
1
3
12
11
10
2
2       <trigger, bet street 2
4
2      <win, that's more like it. 4 units up
2
11
10
12
7
5
10
10    <trigger on 10
2
3
11
10     <win +12
3
1
6
12
6        <trigger, bet street 6
2
2
5
12
8
6        <win, +18
11
1
1       <trigger, bet street 1
2
10
8
7
4
7
1      <win. +23
8
9
2

[Mako]

Nice BW.  When I look at this, I'd want to test it three different ways.

First, I've done some repeat-streets work previously and found that If I spin to 28-29 instead of capping it at 24, it performs better. 

The unit loss is higher per miss (-65u instead of -36u), but over tens of thousands of attempts having 28 or 29 spins provided a much higher net profit than any other spin cap or ceiling.

Second, I would gather data from playing the core concept the following ways, then compare each of them to each other to see if there's anything there:

1. As written, table streets, betting on any street that repeats within 3 spins.

2. As written, but using wheel streets instead (i.e, instead of Street #1 being 1-2-3 on the table, it would be  32-15-9 on the wheel, etc, basically three pockets in a row on the wheel making up the Streets).

3 And finally, betting the same progression on just randomly chosen streets, meaning no bet selection, to see if it performs as well as the bet selection that's been proposed.  This is the "control" set, meaning that if #1 or #2 above don't dramatically outperform this test, then the bet selection isn't providing an advantage.

I did a couple thousand spins worth of tests yesterday for fun on #1 (as written, table street repeats), logged about 254 attempts.  Of those attempts and using spin 28 as the cap with a progression that taps out at -65u, it ended at +652u.

The breakdown was:

2249 total gross spins (actual spins, single tables, single days)

254 total triggers attempted
241 attempts won
13 attempts lost

5.1% loss rate

+652u net gain

Now probability for this specific method (any 3 numbers bet on a single 0 wheel with 28 attempted spins) would come in at a loss rate of 9.4%, so for the moment it's doing very well with table streets as BW proposed.

I'll tinker with this in my spare time and update the thread, it's easy and fun to play. 

[buffalowizard]

Thanks for looking into it Mako. When you say 28 spins, when are you increasing bet unit, after 14?
So two cycles of 14? Or doing progression a little different in your testing?

[Mako]

BW, here is the progression I used for the results above, will continue to see how it does.  The original progression was profitable also for the 2249 spins, but it finished at +158u versus +652u for the modified version here:

SPIN / U BET / S WIN U / P LOSS
1   1   11   -1
2   1   10   -2
3   1   9   -3
4   1   8   -4
5   1   7   -5
6   1   6   -6
7   1   5   -7
8   1   4   -8
9   1   3   -9
10   1   2   -10
11   1   1   -11
12   1   0   -12
13   2   10   -14
14   2   8   -16
15   2   6   -18
16   2   4   -20
17   2   2   -22
18   3   11   -25
19   3   8   -28
20   3   5   -31
21   3   2   -34
22   3   -1   -37
23   4   7   -41
24   4   3   -45
25   4   -1   -49
26   5   6   -54
27   5   1   -59
28   6   7   -65

At just 2249 spins and 254 triggers attempted the sample size is small, you never know, the original progression might overtake the more aggression version with more testing.  I'm also testing a few other versions of the progression simultaneously, but so far the 28-spin variant is the most successful.

[buffalowizard]

BW, here is the progression I used for the results above, will continue to see how it does.  The original progression was profitable also for the 2249 spins, but it finished at +158u versus +652u for the modified version here:

SPIN / U BET / S WIN U / P LOSS
1   1   11   -1
2   1   10   -2
3   1   9   -3
4   1   8   -4
5   1   7   -5
6   1   6   -6
7   1   5   -7
8   1   4   -8
9   1   3   -9
10   1   2   -10
11   1   1   -11
12   1   0   -12
13   2   10   -14
14   2   8   -16
15   2   6   -18
16   2   4   -20
17   2   2   -22
18   3   11   -25
19   3   8   -28
20   3   5   -31
21   3   2   -34
22   3   -1   -37
23   4   7   -41
24   4   3   -45
25   4   -1   -49
26   5   6   -54
27   5   1   -59
28   6   7   -65

At just 2249 spins and 254 triggers attempted the sample size is small, you never know, the original progression might overtake the more aggression version with more testing.  I'm also testing a few other versions of the progression simultaneously, but so far the 28-spin variant is the most successful.

Very Nice Mako!
Solid, thats what I need, my bet selections are ok but my MM sucks usually!

[Mako]

Very Nice Mako!
Solid, thats what I need, my bet selections are ok but my MM sucks usually!

It's fun to test this, easy and fast, which is nice.  I'm going to put it through the three phases I mentioned above, see if one variant is better than the other two.   

[Firefox]

Spins 24. Chance of Success 86.86%
Spins 28. Chance of Success 90.63%
Spins 29. Chance of Success 91.39%
Spins 36. Chance of Success 95.24%

[Mako]

More test data in. Through 400 attempts/triggers (approximately 4000 real wheel spins):

Using BW's original concept and original MM/Progression, net = -17u
Using my extended progression (28 spins, -65u if miss) = +442u

Now that looks good, looks like there might be something there, but it's the trend that kills it.  At my last update, 2249 spins in, BW's original method was at +152u and my 28 spin version was at +652u...which means over the next 1800 or so spins both fell off dramatically.

Whenever that happens it usually means I can test it another 10k spins and it's just going to see-saw while flirting with the house edge, which means it's a fail for now.

I'm going to move on and test the next variant of it, which would be the same 28-spins, -65u if a loss, but this time using wheel sector streets instead of table streets, meaning my Street #1 on the wheel would be 32 / 15 / 19, and Street #2 would be 4 / 21 / 2, etc, all the way around the wheel.

The table streets could work for RNG, but I don't test or have interest in beating RNG since I don't play online, so wheel-based methods are what I prefer to work on anyway.

Will update the thread with the Wheel Streets version as I get time. 

[Firefox]

Wheel sector streets has at least some feint logic to it if you are betting on a repeat. However, it needs a consistent dealer.

For the repeat and it's original, I would collect the following data.

(a) Number/area the ball was spin from.
(b) Number of revolutions of ball before ball hit diamond.
(c) Rotor Speed angular velocity in pockets per sec.  Rotor direction eg Cw
(d) Scatter/bounce  in pockets from diamond hit to target sector street

For the street hit and a repeat: (a) This needs to be approximate within 3 or 4 pockets (b) Needs to be the same (c) needs to be the same or within 1 pocket per sec. This is a critical parameter. 1 pocket per second on a 15 second spin is 15 pockets which you may make up on variable scatter, but any more is not good at all (d) Needs to be the same within 4 or 6 pockets.

For the second repeat you are betting on, (a) and (c) should apply. It should also be a consistent ball speed launch ie Not very obviously a slow ball, fast ball or spin ball. This is where a consistent dealer helps.

Clearly you only bet on those spins for your progression which meet the right initial conditions. You will have to clock the rotor over the first few revs and then you can decide wether to place a bet on your street before nmb are called.

If the spin does not qualify, you don't bet, or bet on some other target.

Follow this regime and your progression has a chance over 99% to hit. You will be ahead of house odds.