Cycles

[mickavelli]

Hi guys...  if you have infront of you statistics.... which is priyankas cycles spreadsheet over at random thoughts....... Therefore you have tens of thousands of spins...
Would this be the place to find an optimal betting strategy without even playing a single spin of roulette?
If the statistics Don't lie, and Do hold over the long run... then can we use them to find a long term strategy? Or nah?
If you play perfectly you break near even on either side of the plus/negative line....
Wondering if anyone has tried to beat these statistics with their own betting approach? Or... have u had an approach be beaten comprehensively??
Not talking about the probability of next spin...
or probability of next defining whatever being same/different as last etc etc....
Just talking about trying different betting processes to beat or be beaten by the statistics of those cycles over the long run.... anyone played around with that??

Here is an example with quads...

Same
Cycle Length        No of cycles       
1                              1099
2                               871
3                               426
4                               97

Different
Cycle Length        No of cycles
1                                0
2                               829
3                               852
4                               324

[mickavelli]

Quick example...
If I play cycle length 1 to be the Same as previous... I only need to play 1 unit on one quad...
Therefore I make 3 units 1099 times = 3297
But I also lose 1 unit to the remaining 3399 cycles that go beyond length one....
Result, over the long run is -102
This is the break even am talking about

[stringbeanpc]

This is just my opinion, could be right or wrong.

Quads
Cycle length of 1 - pick only 1 possible quad to win (which is the defining quad from previous cycle)
Cycle length of 2 - couple be either defining quad or which ever quad appeared spin 1 of this cycle
Cycle length of 3 - couple be either defining quad, or which ever quads appeared in spins 1 or 2 of this cycle

now look at the percentages
cycle length 2 = 871 + 829 = almost 50% same 50% different
cycle length 3 = 426 + 852 = 33% same vs 66% different

maybe this could be combined with friends and strangers (within the quads)  on red/black or odd/even to reduce the numbers you need to bet on.

If you experiment, please post your results back here

[mickavelli]

Hey stringbean....
So you propose we wait until we have 3 quads..... and then bet the 2 quads that are "different" to the previous cycle is that right?
If so we would have won 2 units on
852 cycles = +1704
Lost 2 units on
426 cycles = - 852
But also lost 2 units to the remaining cycles of length 4 which is 97 same 327 different = 421
421x2 = -842

Result
+1704
-852
-842
Result of your idea over the long run is +10 units im not sure how to couple it with friends strangers and each way chances but if you can explain abit more I'll be keen to have a look

[stringbeanpc]

That is not what I mean

lookup friends and strangers on wikipedia and youtube for an explanation, then integrate it with what I say below

Again, this is only my opinion, I have NOT tested this

My idea was this for a NEW cycle
spin 1 bet Defining Quad from last cycle (aka DefQuad)

if lose then (remember 50% same / 50% different)
spin 2 bet either Def Quad
       or bet Quad from spin 1
       or bet both Def Quad and Quad from spin 1

if lose then (remember 33% same / 66% different)
spin 3 bet Quad from spin 1
       or bet Quad from spin 2
       or bet both Quads from spin 1 and spin 2

if lose
spin 4 - no bets - wait for next cycle

[stringbeanpc]

mickavelli, i sent you a pm

[Blueprint]

Statistics alone are not enough.

[mickavelli]

Statistics alone are not enough.

Hey Blueprint,
Thanks for that actually was your latest topic "when to start" that got me thinking.... what if we also started a new set of cycles 1 spin different to the current set...
So for example if 3 was the previous defining quad.....
3 <First set of cycles begins here
2 <Second set of cycles begins here
1
4
Does the stats change? If your playing both sets at the same time.. Somehow... does different become same and vica versa?
Both sets based on 1 set of stats, that being the example above...1099 times we wouldn't have a second set...is there any way to play something like that?

[Blueprint]

Happy to have contributed!

[mickavelli]

Cheers have been thinking there are only 2 ways that could go......
1. First set the repeat is (Same) means second set will stay seperate and cycling....  Example..
3<First set begins
2<Second set begins
1
4
3<First set repeats

2. First set repeat is (different) means both sets will be in sync....
Example....
3<First set begins
2<Second set begins
1
4
1<First set repeat is "different" meaning Both sets repeat

I dunno can anyone wrap their head around that? How to calculate units won/loss over the long run for 2 sets of cycles over 1 set of stats or is that silly complicated idea I will have to think more about it would love to hear back from anyone