Dealer's Signature. Does it Exist?

[ego]

I have a 2 diamond dropzone, but one doesn't know which diamond will be hit at the time of betting.

I don't understand, the reference vertical deflector should be the last one in one specific direction - then the other vertical deflectors hit before the reference deflector will get a donation and ball jumps into same or close to the same area.
For example if you have 9 and 6 a clock and ball cw and rotor ccw - then 9 a cloack is reference deflector and 6 a clock will sometimes donate ball jumps into same area as 9 a clock scatter patterns.

Do you agree or do you look at deflector hit in other way?

Cheers

[Herby]

Hi firefox,
thanks for the good infos.
You are the dealer, you tilt the wheel, supposedly for experimental purposes.
Are you able to measure the tilt in degrees ?

[Firefox]

@Ego,  I agree with you there. Use the last/second diamond at "9 O'clock" as a reference. But sometimes, I move the prediction point back 2 pockets to the line on the wheel or back 4 pockets  to the horizontal deflector if things are not working so well. Sometimes conditions drift, the air gets heavier or maybe grease on the ball, and the first diamond seems to be hit more, so I have no problem moving the reference a bit if it gets better results.

I reckon glance on the first diamond and solid on the second will group in the same place at around 19 in this example, so it's the double contribution making a big scatter peak.

But there are two other peaks not worth betting on as only average results. One is around 18 which I suspect results from solid hit on first diamond, and one at around 30 which may be from glancing hit on second diamond. If I had followed Herby's idea, I may be able to confirm this,  but there is still a lot of "noise" from unusual things happening or spinners which leads to random results which could go anywhere!

[Firefox]

Hi firefox,
thanks for the good infos.
You are the dealer, you tilt the wheel, supposedly for experimental purposes.
Are you able to measure the tilt in degrees ?

Yes I am the dealer here. I am not an expert dealer, just casino wheel at home, but I have thrown many balls, and I can throw a consistent ball which say goes for 9 rotations in this example. Minimum rotations for a legal spin is 3. Most casino rotations are in 10-15 range which I can throw easier with heavier ball. (I have lost my heavy 21mm ball in house move. I need to get another)

I tilted the wheel for the experiment, and I tilt it sometimes for VB practice as I look for 1 or 2 diamond games if possible.

However the tilt is very small. I don't have a special level which fits in the ball track, but I have dipped the ball track from the level and it is quite accurate. Within 1 or 1.5mm which considering it is machined out of wood and then hardwoood inlays then durite ball track resin applied over 800mm diameter is amazing. Its like 0.2% accuracy in wood and resin. I don't think anyone can do better with the materials. These Cammegh wheels are works of art and science.

The photos show the tilt applied. It is the minimum you can see on a 900mm spirit level. I measured the packing required to get the tilt difference shown on the level. It is the difference between a 2 and 3 diamond game on my wheel (4 diamond game is very difficult to produce - I don't think you see many casino wheels with level 4 diamond games)

The packing is 3.5mm

Ball track is 700mm dia approx on 800mm dia wheel

Tilt as measured is tan-1 (O/A) = tan-1 (3.5/700) = tan-1(0.005) = 0.286 degrees = 0.005 radian

TanTheta = SinTheta = Theta for small angles, and this angle is very small.

[Bigbroben]

Is the tilted wheel just an add-on to your test? I mean:  one would believe a tilted wheel belongs to the wheel bias category, whereas the thread is called dealer signature.

How would you differenciate the origin of an exploitable deviation from expectation, if it comes from the wheel or the dealer?

In extenso: from throwing balls on a wheel, do you get a better "feel" of the dealer and able to identify  signatures easily?

[Firefox]

It goes hand in hand with what The General says about limiting  degrees of freedom. By forcing the ball to fall off at one place/quadrant , I am eliminating or softening one variable. It doesn't matter too much if I spin 9 or 10  revolutions. An extra revolution will only take half a second at the start of the spin. The rotor travelling at 9 pockets per second will only move 4.5 pockets in that time. So even the difference between 9 and 10 ball revs is just 4.5 pockets. So at drop off point we are still in the same ball park. The numbers appearing under the ball at drop off are still sensibly the same and given the same scatter profile, we have the plots as shown.

Of course I am aiming for the same steady throw just as a bored dealer might, and I am throwing the same rotor speed each time. And I am throwing from the same spot each time. But all those variables can be assessed before we bet. If my pit boss tells me to vary it and I throw a 14 rev ball that's 2 or 3 secs longer which means the other side of the rotor is presented to the DZ at fall off. Now betting 19/4 sector is in the shadow, and favoured numbers will be 33 sector. We wouldn't bet this spin, and probably leave at some stage if they are obviously and deliberately trying to change the conditions every spin.

Dealers signature would still exist if there wasn't a 90% dominant drop zone like we we have here, it's just harder to see. Say the ball falls off 40% at one diamond 30% the next then 20% then 10%. That's typical of more wheels you'll find. But you'd still have 70% of balls complying with the pattern, with the next diamond giving you random balls, and the last giving you shadow balls. So instead of 40 occurrences in 1000 we might see 34 for the dominant numbers... still worth betting on. But they will be mixed in with random other numbers performing well, so the scatter peak is much smaller and more hidden.

I'd differentiate the occurrence of signature from inherent wheel bias numbers by looking at what was happening before and during the spin. First I look for a dominant dropzone wheel. Hopefully at least 70% or more on two diamonds adjacent. Then I look at where he releases, where the ball ends up, and how it gets there. In this case for this wheel I'd know what the scatter signature was at that rotor speed, so I look for the ball going a certain number of revs round the wheel, coming off in the dominant DZ, looking at the number under drop off and then scattering say 18 or 24 pockets into the same sector. This is shifting every spin. Say he spins from zero under the same conditions (as the test) and 10 to 24 appears under the ball in the DZ -  great that's 19/4 predicted, but the prediction doesn't work because it gets a long roll, or a spinner, or goes up the cone and bounces back and it lands in 10. Now he's spinning from 10 not zero and we are looking for zero/26 to appear under the ball in the DZ and an anticlockwise scatter into the 8 to 11 area. Now he hits 11 and spins from there clockwise so we are looking for 28 in the DZ and 8 to 24 area. Every number which matches the prediction falls into the pattern of a dealer bias number, but they may be different numbers on every spin. Whereas wheel bias numbers are the same regardless and just occur whatever is happening elsewhere. If the dealer is too random throwing different rotors and ball speeds, I can't get a handle on what is going on, so I'll go back to VB or find another table.

By home spinning no, I don't really get a better feel for what casino dealers do. If another person spins, I have still have to track/record the physical variables. Rotor speed, fall off point, scatter, fall off numbers, number of ball revs before fall off etc etc. Sometimes the dealer throws a wobbly ball (chatter) or sometimes there is a different sound or there appears to be backspin or side spin; this may make the spin 2 revs shorter. That's about 9 pockets different on a 4 second rotor or 12 pockets on a 3 second rotor. If a dealer does that a lot, I'd personally avoid that dealer, or not use them for DS.

[Bigbroben]

Great answer, thank you!

[Firefox]

No problem!

I'm not saying to anyone this is a HG method. It needs the right wheel and the right dealer. Also the right knowledge of different makes of wheels and what are typical scatter plots at different wheel speeds. Also, the ability to filter out what is the dominant/typical bounce and scatter roll spin from all the other noise and unusual things which are going on when the ball hits the diamonds and the rotor. The ability to clock ball release speed or at least be able to count revs for other spins and recognise when he is throwing  a similar speed. The ability to accurately count rotor speed within about 0.2 seconds, knowing what range of speeds and conditions to play. Knowing how to stay hidden and milk conditions while they last. It's not something you can play without some study, and it's not something you can you can play all the time because conditions fade or disappear outright very fast.

I think Ego has a very telling quote.

AP- It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful

Nevertheless it's great to have 22 come up with a chip on it because you predicted 0 would be in the DZ, and you know for a 3 second rotor a typical bounce and scatter for that wheel is 27 pockets. Alternatively, 22 comes up but you'd bet on 18 and 9 instead. Then you know you have an advantage, but still lose! It's very similar to VB in this respect but also subject to a lot of the same frustrations.

[Firefox]

I'm wondering if anyone has done any similar testing on their home wheels, in the intervening years?