Logic is the bomb!

[Gizmotron]

I said one day that I would drop the bomb. I know that I have given the mathboyz a lot of disagreement over the past four years. It's because I was not willing to share something profound with them. They love real advantage. They completely understand that in the game of 21 there is a mathematical and finite value for advantage as the deck goes from 52 cards down to the end of its functional utility.

Now consider this: If a characteristic is true and pure to a discernible degree. If that characteristic has a duration to it that tends to continue for a time, then during that duration of continuation a mathematical advantage exists as long as that characteristic continues. There is no other reason for a characteristic like that continuing other than a normal distribution of randomness. There is no force that can cause it to discontinue other than a normal distribution of randomness. In other words, there is no force that can cause or prevent an advantage from starting to occur in the game of Roulette. One of the very best examples of this is in the form of the "global effect." That is a term I made up to describe the phenomenon.

Now go forth and win your Fields Medal and your Nobel Prize.

[Gizmotron]

Some of you will need an example:

"Here is a good example of the global effect. The purity of the trend types are fairly clear. It goes back and forth from a state that (follow-the-last-spin) works very good to (bet-the-opposite-of-the-last-spin) doing very good. The global trend is that it does this sharply when it changes each time. It may be minimal but it is still a characteristic. That sharp change thing can be highly useful knowledge. When it changes, it changes abruptly. This goes on for 150 spins. In case you didn't know this, this is a far greater advantage than counting cards ever dreamed of being. If you noticed this over all characteristic by the 50th spin then you could have used it to your advantage for the next 100 spins. It only costs you a few bets to find out if a characteristic holds up. When it starts losing then the global effect has begun to break down. If you can roll with the punches then the end of a global effect will not effect your game very much. But you have to be flat betting. You have to have a moderate bet with regards to your session's bankroll.


| X    | -- 1
| X    | -- 2
| X    | -- 3
-------- -- 4
|    X | -- 5
| X    | -- 6
| X    | -- 7
|    X | -- 8
|    X | -- 9
|    X | -- 10
-------- -- 11
| X    | -- 12
| X    | -- 13
| X    | -- 14
|    X | -- 15
| X    | -- 16
|    X | -- 17
|    X | -- 18
|    X | -- 19
| X    | -- 20
| X    | -- 21
| X    | -- 22
| X    | -- 23
| X    | -- 24
| X    | -- 25
| X    | -- 26
| X    | -- 27
| X    | -- 28
| X    | -- 29
|    X | -- 30
| X    | -- 31
| X    | -- 32
|    X | -- 33
| X    | -- 34
|    X | -- 35
| X    | -- 36
| X    | -- 37
|    X | -- 38
|    X | -- 39
| X    | -- 40
|    X | -- 41
| X    | -- 42
|    X | -- 43
| X    | -- 44
| X    | -- 45
|    X | -- 46
|    X | -- 47
|    X | -- 48
|    X | -- 49
|    X | -- 50
|    X | -- 51
|    X | -- 52
| X    | -- 53
| X    | -- 54
| X    | -- 55
| X    | -- 56
|    X | -- 57
|    X | -- 58
| X    | -- 59
| X    | -- 60
| X    | -- 61
| X    | -- 62
|    X | -- 63
| X    | -- 64
|    X | -- 65
|    X | -- 66
|    X | -- 67
| X    | -- 68
| X    | -- 69
|    X | -- 70
|    X | -- 71
|    X | -- 72
|    X | -- 73
-------- -- 74
| X    | -- 75
| X    | -- 76
| X    | -- 77
| X    | -- 78
-------- -- 79
|    X | -- 80
| X    | -- 81
|    X | -- 82
| X    | -- 83
| X    | -- 84
|    X | -- 85
| X    | -- 86
|    X | -- 87
| X    | -- 88
|    X | -- 89
-------- -- 90
|    X | -- 91
| X    | -- 92
|    X | -- 93
|    X | -- 94
| X    | -- 95
| X    | -- 96
| X    | -- 97
|    X | -- 98
|    X | -- 99
|    X | -- 100
|    X | -- 101
|    X | -- 102
|    X | -- 103
| X    | -- 104
| X    | -- 105
| X    | -- 106
| X    | -- 107
| X    | -- 108
| X    | -- 109
|    X | -- 110
|    X | -- 111
| X    | -- 112
|    X | -- 113
| X    | -- 114
|    X | -- 115
| X    | -- 116
| X    | -- 117
| X    | -- 118
|    X | -- 119
| X    | -- 120
|    X | -- 121
| X    | -- 122
|    X | -- 123
| X    | -- 124
|    X | -- 125
| X    | -- 126
|    X | -- 127
|    X | -- 128
| X    | -- 129
|    X | -- 130
| X    | -- 131
| X    | -- 132
|    X | -- 133
| X    | -- 134
|    X | -- 135
| X    | -- 136
| X    | -- 137
| X    | -- 138
| X    | -- 139
| X    | -- 140
| X    | -- 141
|    X | -- 142
|    X | -- 143
|    X | -- 144
|    X | -- 145
| X    | -- 146
|    X | -- 147
| X    | -- 148
|    X | -- 149
| X    | -- 150"

[mr.ore]

I added a graph of that. By sharp change you mean those abrupt negative to positive peaks, right? I have added a question mark to peaks I am not sure wheter they are the global effect you are talking about.

There are also some (pseudo)resistances I think. What do you think of that concept? Resistance is if a graph do not go over certain barrier, and it can also be an example of global effect. Once a resistance is broken, there is no way to tell how far will it go, but sooner or later a new resistance is established. During game we can observe this as that for some time game is streaky in one direction, then it becomes choppy, and then it goes either down with different speed or continue to go same direction for some time and then again choppy. It can of course change abruptly, it is also way a barrier might end.

[mr.ore]

I have read your posts again, I misunderstood. By abrupt change you mean change from follow the last to bet opposite. I can't see it that good there, why are there lines at spins 4,11,74,79,90? Spins 29-44 is better performing bet opposite, then spins 118-136, but they are not separated by line.

[Gizmotron]

Those lines were when zero or double-zero hit.

I just put up a new version of my practice software online.

link:://home.earthlink.net/~gizmotron/rm3.4installer.exe

[Gizmotron]

The Big Picture

This is what you want to get from this strategy. Many times people learn faster if they can see the bigger picture or an outline of what they are working to learn. Following the trend leads to three possible outcomes. Nothing ever stays consistent very long. There is always something changing from one direction to another. The three conditions are that this works very good, this works very badly, or this will be chaotic mixed with both good and bad.

So what's the basic strategy you might ask. It's in finding the working very good state while avoiding the working very badly state. You must stay out of the badly formed trends. You must also attack the very good states. The way to do this is to test the waters. You have to jump in in order to participate. You must have a playing technique that allows you to risk your first bets. You must have enough bankroll to take a few losses. Once you have found a working trend you must ride it big and hard while it happens. You must back off on the first loss. There is an entire discussion on backing off and jumping back in. But the first move is to back off after you have huge winnings.

Everything else is just small parts of searching for working trends. Now I hope that most of you can see the difference between searching for something and belief in expectations or depending on anything being due. All this is is being prepared for this if you find something happening that you like. Even the AP players like to find something they can exploit. There is no difference with the  Blackjack players that wait for excellent conditions while counting cards. Good players know when they have conditions that favor them. My method is about knowing when that happens. It's just not based on probability or physics. It's based on coincidence.