EEYORE'S PHILOSOPHY OF ROULETTE

[esoito]

After researching roulette as a potential investment vehicle, here are some tentative conclusions that my mate, Eeyore, will share with you. (You've probably met him before in your childhood...in tales about Winnie The Pooh, Piglet and the others. Read the books to your kids before it's too late.)

You remember Eeyore? The bottle's-half-empty donkey. And Pooh? The froth'n'bubble, effervescent the-bottle's-three-quarters-full bear -- the Bear of Little Brain. (A bit like the always-losing roulette players who don't know when to stop...)




EEYORE'S PHILOSOPHY OF ROULETTE

"I tell you, Pooh, if something can go wrong then it WILL," said Eeyore gloomily, as he moved closer to peer at his reflection in the pool -- and promptly fell in.

He slowly clambered out and vigorously shook himself in all directions.

Pooh quickly moved back and nodded. "Yes. I see what you mean, Eeyore."

Eeyore eyed the ground gloomily. "If something can go wrong it can it WILL. ESPECIALLY if you play roulette."

Pooh looked puzzled. "Roulette...what's that?"

Eeyore looked up and smiled. "It's where a little ball goes round and round in circles and carries peoples' hopes and dreams with it. A metaphor for Life, really.

Trouble is, people don't realise they must choose to either play roulette to make a profit, and then leave. Or they play just for recreation and stay.

But they can't do both -- play for a profit AND keep playing longer."

"Why not?" Pooh still looked puzzled.

"Because they are both Mutually Exclusive, that's why not. Just Common Sense, really. Hurumph...what DO they teach 'em in schools today?"

Pooh clapped his hands delightedly and frothed with excitement. "Ooooooooooo...I love BIG WORDS. Mutually exclooooooooooooooooosive."

He suddenly stopped, frowned and asked again, "But why not?"

Eeyore sighed patiently. "It's because of the House Edge, that's why not. This Edge ensures the casino wins all your money in the end if you play long enough.

Some people are daft enough to play with TWO ZEROS where the House keeps $5.26  out of every $100. Others play with just one zero where the House keeps $2.70 out of every $100.

NO ZERO roulette is the best of all. But there's not much of that around. You've just got to decide if you're going to play for pleasure or for money."

Pooh had, by now, almost overdosed on excitement. "Ooooooo, money rhymes with honey. My favourite. So I want to play for money, Eeyore. Lots of money means lots of honey. What must I do?"

Eeyore began to explain to a wide-eyed Pooh who leaned forward so he wouldn't miss a word.


"Well, it's like this -- just Common Sense, really. Firstly, Pooh, my Bear-of-Little-Brain, you must promise to... 

1  ...NEVER play online RNG roulette. RNG stands for Rip-off Number Generator, Pooh. The numbers are produced by software, written by humans. The software can have all sorts of tricks embedded in it and you'd never know. Neither would the casino auditors.


They try to ensure the casino is operating fairly, but they never check the programmers' code for fairness. So fairness becomes a motherhood statement rather than a cold, hard reality.

Numerous tales abound of RNG letting you win a bit then claws it all back in a way that defies normal, random behaviour.

My first -- and last -- experience was when I bet $1 on all of 34 numbers. I won the first two spins.

Then lost the third. That was quick but well, it had to happen sometime. Then it lost the fourth. Now the chances of two consecutive losses like that are pretty remote.

THEN I PROMPTLY LOST THE FIFTH SPIN, TOO.

The odds of three consecutive losses where only three numbers are uncovered are astronomical. The software was patently obviously rigged.

I lost $102 just like that. But the lesson learned to never again bet with RNG was worth every penny.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


2  Play only on a live wheel online, or at a proper casino, where a human croupier spins the wheel. The results are determined by chance and by natural physics -- not by dishonesty, lies and basic theft.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


3  Be VERY careful about which casinos you play with. Do your homework. You want to deal with honest houses that will pay out promptly and accurately.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


4  Read the fine print before you accept any bonuses of any type.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


5  In fact, it's best to play safe by refusing bonuses IN WRITING and ask for a WRITTEN CONFIRMATION. This is because it's hard to get your own money back until you've fulfilled often unreasonable wagering requirements attached to the bonus. See? The longer you play the more likely you'll lose the bonus AND you own deposit. 

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


6  The exception to this is if you decide to use a bot specifically intended to milk the casinos of their bonuses by rapid placement of wagers to meet the casino's requirements.  That's until the casinos wake up to what is happening and take steps to prevent the use of bots. If it can happen it WILL...remember?

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


7 Play roulette with a HIT'N'RUN STRATEGY ONLY that defines:

  * a realistic profit level at which you STOP and walk away with your profit
  * a sensible stop loss point at which you STOP and walk away and cut your loss

If you keep playing, the HOUSE EDGE WILL BEAT YOU IN THE END. You can't argue with probability; YOU CAN'T BEAT PROBABILITY.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


8  Don't expect to make massive profits on biased wheels. Today's wheels continuously run diagnostic software that will sniff out serious bias long before you ever detect it.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


9  Avoid any systems based on patterns, predictions and the like.

As a child once remarked:  'THE BALL HAS NO MEMORY.' In other words, the numbers are unrelated in a predictive sense.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


10 NEVER pay for a roulette system. If the sellers' claims were true they would be quietly making a fortune with no need to sell their horrible products.

At best it might work for a bit, and then you lose your money. At worst, it's an outright scam.

But if you REALLY want to buy a system then only buy it if it's sold through Clickbank. Then you can get your money back within 56 days if you're not satisfied. THAT IS CLICKBANK'S POLICY AND IT WORKS.

You claim the refund via Clickbank -- not through the vendor.

It's simply Common Sense, isn't it?


11  Finally, bear in mind, my Little Bear, that the roulette professionals -- those who make a living wagering on the wheel -- do NOT publicly reveal their methods, they embrace anonymity, they NEVER sell their methods, and they always stay beneath the casino's radar.

The last thing they want is public recognition of who they are, what they are doing, how they do it, and how successful they are, to avoid being banned by the casinos.


"So, there you are. My Philosophy of Roulette. It's. All. Simply. Common. Sense. Isn't it?" Eeyore nodded to his own question. "Come on, Pooh. It's time for tea now. Enough philosophy for today."

He ambled off followed by a dazed Pooh.

Deep in thought Pooh finally decided that although money rhymed with honey some things were more important in life.

Things like his friends, like his little house in The Woods, like his pot of honey, and particularly his peace of mind undisturbed by greed.

He ran to catch up with Eeyore, greatly looking forward to a little honey on his bread, for his tea. 

"And bugger the wheel," he said.

[Twisteruk]

HA HA  !


Excellent mate, 10/10 



Anyone for baccarat ?

[Tomla021]

ive started playing bac

[Twisteruk]

Yes me too 

Is good 

[Tomla021]

the low edge w/out the 2 zeros is very nice indeed

[geoff365]

"Some people are daft enough to play with TWO ZEROS where the House keeps $5. 26  out of every $100.  Others play with just one zero where the House keeps $2. 70 out of every $100".

Incorrect.  With regards the game of roulette the casino has take and hold.  On the European wheel the hold on the game is 2. 74%.  The take on the game is about 14%.  Every 100 units placed on the table the casino keep 14. 

[esoito]

"All that ," said Eeyore with his mouth full of breakfast, "reminds me of another donkey who was the type to jump into a snake pit and then try to argue with the snakes about the level of their toxicity."

He chewed vigorously. "And then, one day, he actually met a poisonous snake. Poised. Ready to strike him."

"Oooer...and what happened?" squeaked Piglet, anxiously.

"Well, he wanted to argue about the snake's poison, didn't he? But the snake wasn't interested. It simply bit him. And he died...That snake wasn't going to argue with a donkey. Hee...heeeeeeee...haw." (He usually laughed at his own jokes, otherwise it was a waste of breath.)

"Hmmm." Piglet frowned with concentration. "So it didn't really matter if it was a Onezero snake or a Twozero snake -- either way it would bite, but the poison works quicker with the Twozeros."

Eeyore whinnied with delight. "Out of the mouths of babes and piglings."

"Shouldn't that be 'sucklings'?" asked Piglet.

"Gawd, don't you start as well, Piglet. Come on, my little sucker. Time for our morning walk. Then we'll see if Christoper Robin is home."

The two friends wandered down the lane and disappeared round the bend.

Round the bend -- another metaphor for Life.

Especially for those who repeat failures, but confidently expect a positive outcome each time...  Plenty of those around  

[vos]

Hi esoito,

Wow, brilliant explaination of roulette and just life in general.
If you're like me and you know the characters of Winnie-the-Pooh a little it makes your little story so much more entertaining   

There is just one thing that I would like to comment on, your point number 7 refers to a hit-and-run strategy as part of your "common sense collection" for roulette, and I've seen this mentioned to death by so many people on different forums al over.

Look, I am by no means an expert in roulette, I've done my fair share of research and testing, never really had the guts to play for real money since I know all systems fail "eventually" . . . and I put eventually in quotes, because eventually only means it WILL fail, who knows when that might be, it might be on my very first visit to the casino, and then I will just feel very demoralised.

Sorry, I'm moving away from my point here, using a hit-and-run strategy just makes no sense at all to me, and here's why. . .

. . . and please, I am open for any comment on this, it's just the way I see things.

Let's say for argument sake I have a very good system/strategy, call it what you want, but it's really good, and I've told everyone about it, because I want others to benefit from it just as much as I will.

So, I'm off to the casino, to make my 50 units profit and RUN, before mr.  house edge corners me in the lobby, slaps me around a bit, tells me just how bad my system actually is, then steals all my winnings including my initial bankroll.

Just as I leave, along comes someone else whom I've told about with my oh so awesome system, also to just make a quick 50 units and run . . . just before another and another after that and so on.  Ok, I'm sure you're already seeing what I'm saying here, whether or not 50 different people are playing after each other or alongside each other, with the same system, all trying to hit-and-run with the casino's money, then surely I could have just been there all along, playing with all these people's money myself, taking all the little 50unit winings for myself, but that would mean I'm playing for extended periods of time, and then the hit-and-run theory no longer holds.

Let's use an example, let's again assume that your goal is to make one unit and run, and the very best system to so is to bet 1 unit on red, then either take your 1 unit winnings and run, or if you lose take your loss for the day, come back the next day and try again.
But everyone does this, so at any given time someone is using this amasing system to make 1 unit and run, which means the system is being used continually all the time, now if it is really such a good system that everyone likes it, why take hit-and-run ?

Ok, I have rambled enough here, to finish off.

If a system/strategy is based on hit-and-run, it makes no sense and it isn't a very good system, because then I might just as well go and bet on an even chance, take my win or loss for the day and return the next day.

Anyway, keep up the good posts   

[esoito]

Welcome, Vos!! 

Off to a good start with praise for me (thank you...glad you appreciated my efforts...) and a very thoughtful first post.

Eeyore said to tell you he read your post, scratched his head and decided it was best to agree to disagee.

As he said: "We could argue about that all day 'til the cows come home and where would that get us?"

So I'll follow his advice...

[vos]

Thanks esoito,

Well I must admit, Eeyore's got point, so we'll just leave it at that, a thought for people to ponder over    

And hopefully I can start contributing productively real soon to the forum, but first I need to unpack some boxes, yep, a month after moving into our new place and we're still unpacking, seems like there's just never enough time anymore. 

Anyway, let me go and see if I can find my research on roulette that I've done a few years ago . . . it's on my external harddrive . . . in a box somewhere,  :P   . . . the last thing I want to do is make uninformed comments on or about someting which I myself have spent hours on in the past, fighting my own demons on what to believe and what not. 

For now I'll leave you with this. . .   Roulette is a lot like life itself, the more you learn the more complicated it gets.   

[MM]

  I am NOT trying to be negative here but.....
Vos  reply is the best way to finally make all of you understand that the HIT AND RUN tactic can NOT change anything on the LONG RUN.
 I and Turbo Genuis and Snowman/Herb have also made a big effort to explain to all of you this but you never listen....unfortunately  

If a system CAN win in the LONG RUN , then it CAN also win with the HIT AND RUN.
If a system CAN NOT win in the LONG RUN , then it CAN NOT  win with the HIT AND RUN either.

It s pure common sence...
Make a graph....make that graph having recovers and new profit stages....but make it lose in the LONG RUN...let s say 1.000.000 spins....you will see that from one point and after YOU CAN NOT win with HIT AND RUN simply because the graph will be going Down and more DOWN because it will have to lose in the end.
Its really so simple for all of you to understand it if you will make the graph and if you will read again VOS post.

Thank you Vos for your different and so exelent explanation.

So my friends we must make a system that is able to win in the LONG RUN in order to make stable money from Roulette.
This is where we must focus on... on the LONG RUN !!!!
Then we can apply the HIT and RUN with success...although , we will not have to RUN from anything.....aren't we?  

[esoito]

Morse code, radio operators during WW2 could be recognised by their 'fist', by their 'signature' -- the way they keyed, in other words.

All writers have a 'style' that is recognisable and identifiable by certain 'markers'.

So thank you Viper/Jordan/VIP/MM for your interesting and familiar input. 

[esoito]

Eeyore suggests you all carefully read this excellent discussion about hit'n'run:

link:://rouletteforum.cc/general-discussion/hit-and-run-vs-mathematical-probability/

Post your responses there rather than here -- they'll get more exposure. LOL