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Ratio Betting

Started by GLC, Feb 27, 01:18 AM 2011

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GLC

I have been working patiently on Ken's even chance method for about 6 months and feel that I have an excellent chance of winning every time I play it.

This is not Ken's exact method, it's just the way I have adapted it to my style of play.

You can take what you like, if anything, and create your own style of play. 

I use a betting method that incorporates both flat betting and a progression.

1st I flat bet at 1 unit for 10 spins.

My bet selection is follow-the-last.  This isn't cast in stone, but is generally how I play.

If I am up after 10 spins.  Repeat the same thing.

If I am down after 10 spins.  I increase my bet size for the next 10 spins.

If I had 6 or 7 losses, I increase my bet size by 1 unit for the next 10 spins.

And I look at the other 2 even chances to see if one of them is streaking better than the one I'm playing.  If so, I switch.  If neither are much better, I stay where I am.  I have just lost, so I'm looking to switch even chances.  I do this after each 10 spins session if I have lost units or am even.  If I won units, I stay where I am.

If I had 8,9 or 10 losses, I increase my bet size by 2 units for the next 10 spins.

Any time I lose 4 times in a row, I check the other even chances for less choppiness.  I often change even chances part way through my 10 bet session.

Any time I'm at a new high point in my bank at the end of 10 bets, I start over at 1 unit per bet.

If I am betting more than 1 unit per bet and I win 6 or 7 out of 10, I decrease my bet size by 1 unit for the next 10 bets.

Any time I  win 8, 9 or 10 of my 10 bet series, I decrease my bet size by 2 units.

Anytime I win 5 or more bets out of 10, one of the other even chances must be streaking like crazy for me to switch.

I usually shoot for +20 unit win target.  This can take a while if I start out in the hole or can happen very quickly if I start out doing well.

I play like this for about 80% of the time.  The rest of the time, I try to use gut feeling.  Sometimes I will stop betting in the middle of a 10 bet series if I don't like the way I feel.  Sometimes I keep betting at the same level past 10 bets if I feel like things are going well.

This is a very subjective system.  I have tried to incorporate some basic rules to help keep things under control, but all the rules can be broken depending on your subjective feelings.

The more you trust your instincts and get good results, the more you will pay attention to them.

I have been able to win a little with this on a double zero airball machine.  Single zero should do much better.

LOL,

George
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

Quote from: GLC on Feb 27, 01:18 AM 2011


My bet selection is follow-the-last.  This isn't cast in stone, but is generally how I play.


Here's another bet selection method that I use that works well with this system.

Check the last 5 outcomes and play either with the color that has hit the most or against the color that has hit the most.

I usually start playing with the dominant color until I lose 4 times in a row and then I switch and play the minor color.

I cross off all but the last 5 spins and each bet is based on the last 5 only.  You could use 7,  or more if you like.  I use 5 because it catches changes quickly but there's nothing sacred about 5.  Seven would be acceptable also.  Much more and you might not be reacting to trend changes rapidly enough.

Example: Betting dominant color

BRRBR:   In this case I would bet for Red
BRRBRR:  Bet on Red
BRRBRRB:  In this case still bet on Red
BRRBRRBB:  In this case I would switch to Black

Example:  Betting minor color

Take the above example and reverse it.

BRRBR:     Bet on Black
BRRBRR:  Bet on Black
BRRBRRB:  Bet on Black
BRRBRRBB:  Bet on Red

This does a pretty good job of staying with trends.

Remember, we switch after losing 4 in a row.  We also continue to check the other even chance bets to see if one of them is trending better.

An afterword:  This system takes a lot of practice to develop your own version and make smart decisions regarding when to change even chances.

You can use any bet method you like.  The one I presented here is not necessarily better than any other.  It is loosely based on the Project 202 philosophy.  I am currently increasing the 10 bet series to 20 bet series which gets closer to the Project 202 suggestion of a 40 bet series for roulette.

George
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

Please read Giz's post as support for this idea of catching trends.  It's a little hard to follow, but I think he's suggesting that trends are our friends.

link:://rouletteforum.cc/general-discussion/logic-is-the-bomb!/msg39888/?boardseen#new
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

I think I have found a fairly basic way to surf for trends.

What we do is apply the Wabo bet selection method as presented in one of Atlantis' systems.

We track all 3 even chance bets for 10 spins.
We choose the one that has a difference of 6-4 or better in favor of one side of the even chance.

Example:  BBRBRRBBBR  This is a 6 to 4 ratio in favor of Black
               BBRBBBRBBR  This is a 7 to 3 ratio in favor of Black
In both of the above cases we would bet Black.

We track all 3 even chances and we select the even chance that has the best ratio or the most hits.
We bet our suggested bet method of 1 unit for 10 bets.  If we are down after our 10 bet series, we raise our bet size and if we are up after our 10 bet series, we lower our bet size.  Read my initial post for exact rules.

If we are down after 5 bets, we re-check all the even chances for the one that is trending the best.  Always check the last 10 spins.
We then switch our bet to that even chance for the next 5 bets.
If we are up after 5 bets, we can continue to bet the same even chance (or, if you wish you can recheck after each 5 bet series and go with the even chance that has hit the most in the last 10 spins).

Remember, we always bet a flat bet for our 10 spins series and we usually check the last 10 spins after 5 bets in our 10 bet series.

In other words, our bet series is 10 bets long and your bet selection trending is checked every 5 spins. 

We do not change our bet size in the middle of a 10 bet series.

We can change our even chance we are betting on every 5 spins if one we are not betting on is trending stronger than the one we are betting on.

I think I have beat the dead horse enough.

LOL

G.
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

I have been testing the Wabo method of deciding which e.c. to play for the next series and I have made a couple of tweaks.

First, we still use 10 spins to decide which e.c. is trending the best and bet on that e.c.  I have reduced my bet to 5 spins and then adjust bet size depending on whether we are up or down.  Also, after 5 spins we recheck our even chances to see if there's a better bet than the one we are on.  We still check the last 10 spins for this decision.  This means that we use each 5 spins twice for checking for spins.  Once as the last 5 spins of the 10 and next as the 1st 5 spins of the 10.

Also, if I have a tie of say 7 Reds and 7 Highs, I choose the one with the most hits in the last 5 spins.  If they each have the same number of hits in the last 5 spins, I choose the one that has the most hits starting from the 10th spins working backwards.  So if Black and High tie as they do in my following session, and they tie  in the last 5 spins I go to the 10th spin and see if only one hit there.  In this case H hit on the 10th spin but Black didn't, so I go with Hi.  If nothing breaks the tie, just pick your favorite.

I am also playing this according to MrJ's win target and stop-loss.  That means we are playing for a 3 unit win target.  Since MrJ takes $5600 and two body guards to the casino, that means he's taking 28 each $200 units.  So, our stop-loss is 28 units.  We must decide for ourselves how much we can afford to risk.  

I like this because I only have access to an airball machine on which I can play up to $25 bets on the e.c. bets.  That means I can make $75 per trip.  If there are empty seats, I can play 2 machines and get up to $50 units for $150 win per trip.  If there are 3 empty screens next to each other, I can bet $75 units and win $250 per trip.  Of course that means I need a bank of $2,100 which is 28 each $75 units.  I also think to be safe we need at least 3 of these 28 unit banks.  There's always a chance that we can lose 1 and even 2 banks.  Let's don't even think about losing 3 banks, bet remember to only play with money you can afford to lose, no sweat.  If there's sweat, don't play for such large amounts.

Here's a session:

Sorry, I didn't write the numbers down, just whether they were R/B, O/E, H/L.

B   E   L
R   O   L
R   O   H
R   O   H
B   E   L
B   E   H
B   O   H
B   E   L
B   E   H
R   O   H   6 B's and 6H's.  Last 5 have 4B's and 4H's.  10th H hit B didn't.  Betting H
R   O   H   H  +1     +1
R   O   H   H  +1     +2
R   E   L    H  -1      +1
B   E   L    H  -1      0
R   O   L   H   -1      -1  In last 10 there are 6 H's.  We are -1 so up bet to 2 for H
R   O   H   H  +2      +1
B   E   H   H  +2      +3  Pack up my bags and head for the house.  Win target reached.

Next session:
R   O   H
R   O   H
R   E   L
B   E   L
R   O   L
R   O   H
B   E   H
B   E   H
R   E   L
B   O   H   6 R's & 6 H's but 4 H's in last 5 spins.  Bet H at 1 unit.
R   O   H   H +1     +1
R   O   L    H -1      0
B   E   L    H -1      -1
R   O   H   H +1      0
R   O   L   H  -1      -1   6 R's & 6 H's but 4 R's in last 5.  -1 balance so increase bet to 2 on R's.
R   E   H   Red  +2     +1
R   O   H   Red  +2     +3   Hit win target.

Next Session:
R   O   H
R   O   L
B   E   L
R   O   H
R   O   L
R   E   H
R   O   H
R   O   L
B   O   H
B   O   H   8 O's   Bet O's for 1 unit.
B   O   H   O  +1     +1
R   E   L    O  -1       0
R   O   L    O  +1     +1
R   E   H    O  -1       0
R   O   H    O  -1      -1   7 of R,O & H but 4 R's in last 4.  -1 balance so bet 2 units on R's.
R   E   L     Red  +2     +1
R   O   H    Red  +2     +3   Win target reached.

These were obviously easy sessions.  I'm sure there will be much harder ones or else we'd only need about 10 units for a bank.

Had I been flat betting, I would have only achieved my win target 1 time and it would have been on the same spin I hit my 3rd +3 above.

Cheers,

George

In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

One thing I forgot to reiterate is the bet progression.

We bet 1 unit for 5 spins.  Anytime our 5 spins results in a loss, in other words we lose 3 or more of the 5 bets, we increase the next 5 bets by 1 unit.

If our overall total is -10 or greater, we increase our next 5 bets by 2 units. 

Anytime our 5 spin total is a gain, in other words we win 3 or more of the 5 bets, we decrease our bets by 1 unit.

We never decrease our bets by 2 units unless decreasing it by 1 unit will still leave our bet so large that a win will result in more than our +3 win target.

MrJ uses a 28 unit bank for a 3 unit win, but he's flat betting.  Since we are using a progression, we may need to increase the size of our bank.  We may also consider increasing the size of our win target.

A 10 unit win target and a 50 unit bank may be more reasonable.  This remains to be seen.  The 3 unit win target may be the controlling factor in the long term success of this strategy.

Here's another session: I wrote down the numbers this time.

21  ROH
11  BOL
15  BOL
7    ROL
25  ROH
17  BOL
19  ROH
36  REH
16  REL
3    ROL   We have 8 O's so we bet 1 unit on Odd.
22  BEH  O -1    -1
18  REL  O -1    -2
30  REH  O -1    -3
24  BEH  O -1    -4
9   ROL   O +1   -3    7  Reds and a minus total under -10 so we increase our bet by 1 unit and Bet 2 units on Red
31 BOH  Red -2    -5
6   BEL   Red -2    -7
4   BEL   Red -2    -9
19  ROH  Red +2   -7
2   BEL   Red-2    -9   7 Evens and a minus total under -10 so we increase our bet by 1 unit and bet 3 units on Even
26  BEH  E +3   -6
9   ROL  E -3    -9
21  ROH  E -3   -12
35  BOH  E -3   -15
23  ROH  E -3   -18   6 O's & 6 H's but 4 O's in last 5 spins.  More than -10 so increase our bet size by 2 units and bet 5 units on Odd.
12  REL  O -5   -23
15  BOL  O +5  -18
21  ROH  O +5  -13
33  BOH  O +5  -8
29  BOH  O +5  -3    8 O's with a positive balance so decrease bet size by 1 and bet 4 units on Odd.
17  BOL  O +4  +1
33  BOH  O +2  +3  Reached our win target.  Please note that we never bet more than necessary to reach our 3 unit win target.

Had I lost that last 2 unit bet, I would have stayed at betting 2 units for the rest of the 5 spins.
15  BOL  O +
33  BOH  O +
30  REH  O -   These are the remaining 3 spins of our last 5 spins.

+12 units overall.  For MrJ, that's $2400.  For me it's just a dream as of right now since I'm still testing.  All I can do is dream.  Of course MrJ would have been down $4600 at one point.  There could have been some shaky hands had I been making the bets. :'(

One final point.  I'm still up in the air as to whether going to a 5 spin sequence is better than staying with a 10 spin sequence for determining our bets.  I think re-checking our even chance every 5 spins is okay, but changing our bet size every 5 spins may make it too volatile for large denomination bets.  At least until we win a few grand.


GLC
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

A tweak of this system.

I'm going to play using my running total method posted in the topic "Riding the Waves" link:://rouletteforum.cc/the-notepad/riding-the-waves/.

All we do is keep a running total of +1/-1.  +1 when we have a repeat of the last spin and -1 when we have a change of the last spin.  Anytime out total is + we are streaking more than changing and vice versa.

We keep track of all 3 Even Chances and play the one with the best + status.

Theses are the same spins as the last post.

I will flat bet.

                   Red/Black        Even/Odd          Hi/Lo      +/-          Total

21  ROH           
11  BOL               -1               +1               -1        NB
15  BOL                0               +2                0        NB             
7   ROL               -1               +3               +1        NB                   +3 start betting 1 unit E/O
25  ROH                0               +4                0        +1            +1               
17  BOL               -1               +5               -1        +1            +2
19  ROH               -2               +6               -2        +1            +3
36  REH               -1               +5               -1        -1            +2
16  REL                0               +6               -2        +1            +3
3   ROL               +1               +5               -1        -1            +2
22  BEH                0               +4               -2        -1            +1
18  REL               -1               +5               -3        +1            +2
30  REH                0               +6               -4        +1            +3
24  BEH               -1               +7               -3        +1            +4
9   ROL               -2               +6               -4        -1            +3
31  BOH               -3               +7               -5        +1            +4
6   BEL               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
4   BEL               -1               +7               -5        +1            +4
19  ROH               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
2   BEL               -3               +5               -7        -1            +2
26  BEH               -2               +6               -8        +1            +3
9   ROL               -3               +5               -9        -1            +2
21  ROH               -2               +6               -10       +1            +3
35  BOH               -3               +7               -9        +1            +4
23  ROH               -4               +8               -8        +1            +5
12  REL               -3               +7               -9        -1            +4
15  BOL               -4               +6               -8        -1            +3
21  ROH               -5               +7               -9        +1            +4
33  BOH               -6               +8               -8        +1            +5
29  BOH               -5               +9               -7        +1            +6
17  BOL               -4               +10              -8        +1            +7
33  BOH               -3               +11              -9        +1            +8
15  BOL               -2               +12              -10       +1            +9
33  BOH               -1               +13              -11       +1            +10
30  REH               -2               +12              -10       -1            +9

As you can see we did extrememly well this series.  The strong showing of odd was very good.

We could have also bet on H/L the opposite way since it was trending with chops so we could have switched our betting to chops instead of streaks and done well.

Usually, there is more fluctuation than this and we have to switch from one E.C. to another as they trade places taking the most streaking spot.

These are early days and this system is in the infant stages.

As long as it performs well, I'll keep you posted.

If any of you happened to get interested, feel free to jump in and churn the waters.

George
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

Tomla021

very cool stuff george,,, im trying some stuff with variations of your method , will report if anything good comes of it
"No Whining, just Winning"

GLC

Quote from: GLC on Mar 06, 11:27 AM 2011
A tweak of this system.

I'm going to play using my running total method posted in the topic "Riding the Waves" link:://rouletteforum.cc/the-notepad/riding-the-waves/.

All we do is keep a running total of +1/-1.  +1 when we have a repeat of the last spin and -1 when we have a change of the last spin.  Anytime out total is + we are streaking more than changing and vice versa.

We keep track of all 3 Even Chances and play the one with the best + status.

Theses are the same spins as the last post.

I will flat bet.

                   Red/Black        Even/Odd          Hi/Lo      +/-          Total

21  ROH           
11  BOL               -1               +1               -1        NB
15  BOL                0               +2                0        NB             
7   ROL               -1               +3               +1        NB                   +3 start betting 1 unit E/O
25  ROH                0               +4                0        +1            +1               
17  BOL               -1               +5               -1        +1            +2
19  ROH               -2               +6               -2        +1            +3
36  REH               -1               +5               -1        -1            +2
16  REL                0               +6               -2        +1            +3
3   ROL               +1               +5               -1        -1            +2
22  BEH                0               +4               -2        -1            +1
18  REL               -1               +5               -3        +1            +2
30  REH                0               +6               -4        +1            +3
24  BEH               -1               +7               -3        +1            +4
9   ROL               -2               +6               -4        -1            +3
31  BOH               -3               +7               -5        +1            +4
6   BEL               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
4   BEL               -1               +7               -5        +1            +4
19  ROH               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
2   BEL               -3               +5               -7        -1            +2
26  BEH               -2               +6               -8        +1            +3
9   ROL               -3               +5               -9        -1            +2
21  ROH               -2               +6               -10       +1            +3
35  BOH               -3               +7               -9        +1            +4
23  ROH               -4               +8               -8        +1            +5
12  REL               -3               +7               -9        -1            +4
15  BOL               -4               +6               -8        -1            +3
21  ROH               -5               +7               -9        +1            +4
33  BOH               -6               +8               -8        +1            +5
29  BOH               -5               +9               -7        +1            +6
17  BOL               -4               +10              -8        +1            +7
33  BOH               -3               +11              -9        +1            +8
15  BOL               -2               +12              -10       +1            +9
33  BOH               -1               +13              -11       +1            +10
30  REH               -2               +12              -10       -1            +9

As you can see we did extrememly well this series.  The strong showing of odd was very good.

We could have also bet on H/L the opposite way since it was trending with chops so we could have switched our betting to chops instead of streaks and done well.

Usually, there is more fluctuation than this and we have to switch from one E.C. to another as they trade places taking the most streaking spot.

These are early days and this system is in the infant stages.

As long as it performs well, I'll keep you posted.

If any of you happened to get interested, feel free to jump in and churn the waters.

George

Tweak time.  And I'm only talking about legal tweaking.

Using the above method of +1/-1, I have been having excellent luck looking only at the last 5 decisions.  I'm looking for the largest change in the last 5 results.

This is a section from the above post.

31  BOH               -3               +7               -5        +1            +4
6   BEL               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
4   BEL               -1               +7               -5        +1            +4
19  ROH               -2               +6               -6        -1            +3
2   BEL               -3               +5               -7        -1            +2
26  BEH               -2               +6               -8        +1            +3
9   ROL               -3               +5               -9        -1            +2
21  ROH               -2               +6               -10       +1            +3

Notice that in the 3rd (H/L) row we have a change from 19 ROH to 21 ROH a change from -6 to -10, that's a change of 4 points which makes it worth betting on.  Of course it is going minus which means that it's chopping, so bet accordingly.  Had it changed 4 points and it was +6 to +10, that would mean that it's streaking and we should bet for streaks.  Had it changed from +10 to +6, that would indicate chops also.  This is  a suggested bet selection method.  It works pretty well and I think it takes a pretty good shot at not being a mechanical bet selection method which means that it may be possible to win long term with a flat bet.  Emphasis on the word "may".  Naturally, you can use your favorite bet selection method.  The bet progression is the main emphasis with this system.

The following is my current bet progression.
This has been testing pretty well.  I have gone back to betting 10 times at 1 unit.  Everytime I reach a new high bank, I reset to the 1st 1 unit bet.  This often occurrs before I make 10 bets.  If I get to the end of a 10 bet level and my loss hasn't gone down more than 20% from the beginning amount of the 10 bet level, I remain at the same bet size for the next 10 bets. I never increase my bet size by more than 1 unit no matter how poorly I did in the last 10 bets.  This is a real grind, but the coffee made from the grounds is sweet.

To fit your playing style, you could increase by more than 1 unit if you want.  I use a 10 step progression, 1X10, 2X10, 3X10, 4X10 etc...  I stay at the current level until I've recovered all losses.  This isn't necessary.  You could drop back down a level or two if your current level results in a win for the 10 bets.

This is a tweaked "Bread Winner" system.  You could conform more closely to the original "Bread Winner" system.  Read about it here:

link:://:.archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/159/mode/1up

The theory behind this system is that we should win close to the same number of bets over the long run.  If we lose most of our losses when we're betting smaller amounts, and we win most of our wins when we're betting larger amounts, assuming that we don't lose our total bank or reach the table limits, we should eventually reach a new high bank.

Example:  Let's say we have just finished betting 4,000 bets.  Let's say we lost 2100 bets and won 1900 bets.  Let's say the average size of our lost bets was 5 units and the average size of our won bets was 7 units.  5 X 2100 = 10,500 lost units.  7 X 1900 = 13,300 won units.  13,300 - 10,500 = +2,800 units.  So we lost 200 bets more than we won, but we still came out 2,800 units ahead.  Sweet.  That's the basic theory behind why progressions are so popular.

Betting our progression, guarantees that we will always win on larger units than we lose on.  Our only worry is that we will hit such a stretch of losses for such a lengthy amount of time that our drawdown is more than our bank.  If that happens, then we are broke and can't stay in the game long enough to finally get enough wins to compensate for our losses.  Reaching the table limits is a secondary concern because by increasing 1 unit for every 10 bet losing level keeps our bet size low.  But don't be lulled to sleep, enough small bets can add up to a big loss.  Nevertheless, this is a pretty stable system.

GLC
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

Let's do an exercise to see how much difference staying at the same level until all previous losses have be recovered compares to dropping down a level after a win.  This would be a true D'Alembert type progression of +1 on a loss and -1 on a win.

I know that many of you veteran roulette players are aware of this stuff but I post it for those members and guests who are just getting interested in roulette.  I received a lot of PMs from members I had never seen post before asking me not to stop posting when I threw my little tiff a couple of weeks ago.  Since most of what I post is the basics and in a fairly understandable manner, it seems that it is a benefit to folks that I never hear from.

That being said, here we go.

If we lose 10 levels in a row and we lose them all 7 losses to 3 wins, that gives us a 4 bet loss for each level.  Our losses look like the following:

-4  (1 unit bet with 7 losses minus 3 wins = -4 units)
-8  (2 units bet with 7 losses minus 3 wins = -8 units)
-12  (etc...)
-16
-20
-24
-28
-32
-36
-40
for a total loss of 220 units.

Now, our next series will be at 11 units per bet.  Let's say we start winning 7 bets and losing 3 bets for each level.  We would get the following:

+44  (11 unit bets times 7 wins = 77 units mines 3 losses = 33 units for +44 units)
+44  Since we are winning, we don't increase our bet size
+44
+44
+44
for a total of +220 units in 5 series.  This tells us that we only needed to win 5 series to fully recover all 10 lost series.

If we used the -1 on a win we would get the following:
+44
+40
+36
+32
+28
+24
+20
for a total of +224 units.  So it took 2 more levels to fully recover with the D'Alembert method. 

What about a pluscoup or Oscar's Grind?  This is where we keep the same bet size on a loss and increase it by 1 unit on a win.  Remember, each loss and win represent a 10 bet series not an individual bet.

Since we start with 10 lost series, we won't increase our bet size at all, thus we will have 4 units lost on each level for a total of -40 units.

On the 11th series we will win 4 units and following the rules of Oscar's Grind, we increase the bet size by 1 unit which means we will win 8 units on the 12th series etc...

11th = +4
12th = +8
13th = +12
14th = +16
This gives us our +40 units to off-set our -40 units. 

So, with the pluscoup we only needed 40 units for our 10 losing series vs 220 for our Alembert and it only took 4 wins to fully recover 10 losses with a maximum bet of 4 units.  Note on a pluscoup that even though we only increase after a win, we are still winning by winning more units on won bets than we lost on losing bets.  The principle is universal unless you can win more bets than you lose then you can use a flatbet.  How many bets do you have to test to confirm that you can win long term with a flatbet???

We could consider playing this with a labby but it would be much more complicated and maybe not work so well on this type method.

Just some things to think about.

GLC
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

GLC

A short introduction to the Pluscoup or Oscar's Grind.

This is a very powerful bet progression.  It's called a positive progression because we increase our bets after a win instead of after a loss.  It is still a dangerous progression because even though we don't increase our bet size after a loss, we still have the expectancy of losing more bets than we win.

The killer sequence for a pluscoup is WLLWLLLWLLWLLWLLLLWLL etc...  Thus we win, increase our bet size and then lose 2 or more times at the new increased level.  Then we win, increase our bet size and then lose 2 or more times at the new increased level.  This means that we are losing more on our losses than we are winning on our wins because we have more losses than wins.

This doesn't mean the pluscoup isn't a good bet progression, it just points out the pitfalls to be aware of.  If you study bet progressions for a while, you will realize that no matter how clever they may be, there is always a losing sequence that makes sure the casinos never go broke.  Our task, should we choose to accept it, is to devise a method of play that exercises enough control over what we do while at the casino to neutralize or skip over these losing sequences.  Of course this is where the disaggreement comes in.  Some say that it's impossible to accomplish and others, maybe most, haven't thrown in the towel, yet.

Luck to all,

GLC
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

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