Gambler's Fallacy Folly

[MauiSunset]

MS-" If you see those 2 Reds it means nothing butafterwards and 3 Reds show up thenthe odds were just 5.6% of that happening."

Gads - get your mathboyz face on. The odds are .4864 for red to occur. The house advantage for a 37 slot wheel is 0.027027027 .

I'll talk slower  18/37 is .4864864


For 3 Reds to show up in a "trend" (which means nothing) is .4864864 * .4864864 * .4864864 = .0560122

Exactly what I said the odds of 3 Reds showing up in a row is 11.5%.....

[Gizmotron]

MS, ( 0.027027027 ), where did I go wrong? Please help.

Oh - I see now. I calculated house advantage.

let's try your math: .4864864 * .4864864 * .4864864 = .11513625826

[MauiSunset]

The odds of 3 Red or Black or Even or Odd or Hi or Low is 11.5% (I had 5.6% and I have no idea why my cell phone calculator comes up with that - is should be 11.5%)  Sorry....


The house advantage on EC bets is 1/37=2.7% European wheel, 2/38=5.3% American wheel