Algorithms/heuristcs/curve-fitting

[Toby]

What is the difference between them? They are very similar.

Supose I have this sequence: 1 2 3 4 , I might guess that the next is 5, How do you calculate the chance that 5 is the next or not?

What about this sequence?: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 , how do odds change in this scenario? What is the chance for #9 to be the next on the sequence?

[albertojonas]

it is the same chance as any other number. With how many numbers are we dealing with?

[Toby]

The first sentence was writen to see if anyone understand the problem.

Supose it is roulette and we have 37 numbers, 1 2 3 4 sample and 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 sample.

We crash into Gambler´s Fallacy but there must be a threshold where a past event tells you the future.

is there another tool but the Standard deviation test or the z-score to conclude that the past sequence makes you to predict something?

[Gizmotron]

The solution is to use a binary on it.
Does the sequence continue yes or does the sequence continue no?
There is no prediction process. There never will be.
The solution is to participate in a highly profitable condition while minimizing any equalizing condition.
You do that by utilizing a binary, A or B, yes or no.
You must recognize the condition that exists now.
You must act on what you see occurring.
You don't need a magic predictor. Otherwise all you end up doing is attempting to find mathematical conditions that fit what you hope to find. You find yourself behind the conditions. You miss the best parts. Each spin produces a binary confirmation of the sequence's condition. That is the useful math.

[Toby]

Hi Gizmo, as the realm this thread is about we are trying to predict a future hit.

The binomial distrubution gives us 2 posibilities, hit or fail.


The sequence is asquing if it continues 5 for the former ans 9 for the latter.

We should wonder what is the chance to get 1 2 3 4 and 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8. These sequences are to ilustrate other events on roulette.

The purpose of this thread is to know when a sequence of hit or several events are just random or there is any hint to take advantage of past data.

You could be curve-fitting and "believe" what it would happen but, sometimes data "fits" a future play.

The confirmation of events might weigh on a positive way of playing.

BR

[Gizmotron]

The purpose of this thread is to know when a sequence of hit or several events are just random or there is any hint to take advantage of past data.

You could be curve-fitting and "believe" what it would happen but, sometimes data "fits" a future play.

The confirmation of events might weigh on a positive way of playing.

Just accept that recognisable sequences and characteristics are the basis of randomness. Once you get past that it's easier to learn how to exploit them when they occur. There is no predictor on when the sequence will appear or how long it will last. It just does. If you handle them right they can perform for you like an ATM machine.

[Nickmsi]

 Well said Gizmotron . . . that was the best explanation I have heard regarding randomness and winning at roulette.


Most of us still think in terms of a roulette strategy that is based on an “event”.  We are waiting for an event of a number repeating, waiting for an event of a number waking up, waiting for an event of a number not matching a matrix, waiting for a trigger to predict a number, etc.


Once we get passed this historical type of thinking, then we may be on our way to making a  little profit at this game.


The big question we have is “What are the recognizable sequence/characteristics of randomness”?


Perhaps,  you would be so kind as to start a thread on recognizing the sequences of randomness and teach us how to recognize them and benefit from them.


Can you please enlighten us on this subject?  We know this is a large topic to cover, but if you could get us started in recognizing a few main sequences, then perhaps we can learn to recognize others.


Thank you for all you efforts . . . Nick

[Gizmotron]

Thanks Nickmsi, - I already started. Now I chose to focus on one characteristic to start. Its about four pages now. You'll find it at the other VLS forum under the section on randomness studies. Titled: "The Grail of Randomness."

[MauiSunset]

The only "math" thing that matters in Roulette are the stated odds.


I can't think of a single other math tool that will increase your odds of winning.


It's really that simple....

[amk]

Thank you Gizmotron!!

I shall follow the flow of randomness. I have not checked the forum for several weeks I believe. Happened to find your posts and they look very promising.

Catch you on VLS.

AMK