How many 300 trails sessions can you win flat betting each trail even money bets

[albertojonas]

Basically we "Only" lose our bet when the two opposed states,
in the case Series of Singles and Series of Series,
appear back to back. In another words, we bet against two series being followed by two singles and the opposite also.



This fact creates an hO_Overing state between them that is impossible to predict due to the random length of the series.

Fluctuation is due to this mostly. The only thing to do is apply a money management that could try to deal with this negative expectation.


=====================


So what is the minimum present state of the distribution?


example:


RRR BBB R B(by this point we already have a hovering state) and what comes after this is what we speculate on.

so from this point on we only can allow a series to form becoming RRR BBB R BB


or we should observe


RRR B R(hovering state here, as we don't know the future) so from this point on we only can allow a series to form becoming RRR B RR
or
Can we allow RRR B R as long as prior to this a single had happen?
being


B RRR B R BBB and only then B RRR B R BBB R<-- only allow this one to be a single?


i guess the answer is both.

Bottom-line for me is that if one isolates the cases that may happen it is not hard to grasp, but when practicing with the unfolding of events things get confusing.


I wonder if you coded this ego?

Very nice observations on random behavior.
thanks again for exposing this and for all the clarifications that you give on a silver plate.
Cheers

[albertojonas]

Doubt is what is confusing is the minimum formations


i have
BBB RRR B R_ i should not bet here against a single?
i guess not


I Should i wait for


BBB RRR B RR B_and here bet for another serie to form


and if i lose and it is a single


BBB RRR B RR B R_bet here for a serie again.


XX
OX
<-bet here for X if lost


XX
OX
O<-bet here for X


suppose we loose and 3 states appear


XX
OX
OO
now we continue playing to follow last 2 previous?


against XX?




I am having serious difficulties practicing this bet.
May you please check this spins so i can check if our results collide?
[reveal]25
12
6
27
22
19
28
34
26
16
9
22
4
33
26
14
13
9
20
21
16
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31
7
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2
6
34
1
12
17
7
14
31
1
26
15
28
20
6
30
6
14
30
20
25
10
22
32
32
23
4
9
28
24
5
17
16
7
20
3
26
18
29
9
21
24
7
13
27
28
16
13
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6
11
14
20
2


many thx[/reveal]

[ego]

The basic is that you follow the two states that is present.
The last previos state and the current state.

That is random walk 1 out of 3.

The minimum formation is based upon follow the last and back to back.
With out using the strike distribution or the formations individual strike lenght.
Its about capture 3 events out of 4.

XXX
XXO
XOX
XOO

Where the formation XOO is losing formation - two bets.
So the random walk 1 capture follow the last and back to back.

Then when you end up with the losing formation XOO - then there exist two possibilitys.

BB RRR BRR The previos state is two series that chop and current state is hovering.

RBR BB RBB The previos state is series of singels and the current state is hovering.

First state you would play for a serie to chop and if a loss you would aim for hovering state.
Two bets.

Secound state you would only have to place one singel bet to capture one of the two states.
That mean you would play for a singel to apper after the first change.
One bet.

That way you would follow the random flow and how it unfold.
You would aim for repeats using two states.
And when the third losing state appers you would follow that state and the previos one.

Random walk 2 means that you play every trail and follow every bet and formation so you capture the strike distribution.
Then the algorithm for the betting behavior change a littel to the previos explination above as you fall into two dimensions.

Random walk 3 i dont yet know how to explain in writing.

Strike distribution ...

So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues  B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO

The basic i told you about is that you can use one random walk 1 to just pin point out series and signels with out using strike distribution playing every trail or you could use random walk 2 and capture the strike distribution.
Random walk 2 would use bouth and pin point out all possibilitys against XOO and in the same time use strike distribution - the lenght of formations.

[ego]

The basic is that you follow the two states that is present.
The last previos state and the current state.

That is random walk 1 out of 3.

The minimum formation is based upon follow the last and back to back.
With out using the strike distribution or the formations individual strike length.
Its about capture 3 events out of 4.

XXX
XXO
XOX
XOO

Where the formation XOO is losing formation - two bets.
So the random walk 1 capture follow the last and back to back.

Then when you end up with the losing formation XOO - then there exist two possibilitys.

BB RRR BRR The previos state is two series that chop and current state is hovering.

RBR BB RBB The previos state is series of singels and the current state is hovering.

First state you would play for a serie to chop and if a loss you would aim for hovering state.
Two bets.

Secound state you would only have to place one single bet to capture one of the two states.
That mean you would play for a single to apper after the first change.
One bet.

That way you would follow the random flow and how it unfold.
You would aim for repeats using two states.
And when the third losing state appers you would follow that state and the previos one.

Random walk 2 means that you play every trail and follow every bet and formation so you capture the strike distribution.
Then the algorithm for the betting behavior change a littel to the previos explination above as you fall into two dimensions.

Random walk 3 i don't yet know how to explain in writing.

Strike distribution ...

So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues  B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO

The basic i told you about is that you can use one random walk 1 to just pin point out series and signels with out using strike distribution playing every trail or you could use random walk 2 and capture the strike distribution.
Random walk 2 would use bouth and pin point out all possibilitys against XOO and in the same time use strike distribution - the length of formations.

The best way to following the random flow and understand how the three states repeat and not repeat - imbalance or one show each is to use the dozen strategy i explain below.You bet against every state not to repeat and use the signs L for Loss and W for Win to get the LW-Registry charts - that way you can observe and make your own conclusion if there is better to follow the random flow or bet against the random flow.That way you can create your own entering and exit points or triggers.

How i would out guess or follow the flow using three states and follow the last previos state and the current state

[/b]RRRBBRBB

Two states above ...RRRBB The last previos state
BBRBB The current stateTwo series that chop and one hovering state - then i would bet for two series to chop and if a loss i would bet that the last current state would continue to hovering.If a loss then all three state would have one show each.

RRRBBRBBRBRIf i would have one hoveing state and one series of singels - then you would only have to place one single bet to capture one of the two states - the last previos and current state.RRBRRRBRBBB

RRBRRRThe hovering state

BRB One series of singels stateNow if that single bet would lose you would get one of each state "three" to show once each ...RRBRRRBRBBBRRRI use this dozen strategy using even money bets to discover that follow the wheel is much better then play against it.This is a great way to understand and observe how the random flow unfold using three existing states.The dozen strategy is that you bet aginst that one dozen will repeat - witch would be the same for the even money states.Dozen:
1
2 W
1 W
2 W
3 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
2 W
2 L
2
3
3 L
1
1 L

EC:

2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 W
1
2
2
2
2
1
1 W
2
1 W
2
1
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
2
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 L
1 L State repeat
1
2
2
2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L State repeat
2
1
1
2
2
2
2

Using the same method with three state with even money bets is very simple.

You see RRRBB Witch is one state - then you would play twice that a new state will show.If not the last previos state repeat it self in the same way one dozen would do using the method described above - RRRBBRRBBB ...

Same with the other two states witch would look like this.

RBB = single state RBBRBB = Repeating state
RBRRR = single state RBRRRBRB = Repeating state

This is how i made my observations and any dozen strategy that exist apply using the three existing states for even money distribution.With that experiment you should notice why it is better to follow then bet aginst the flow.I just find out that two previos state hit more frequent and show that nothing is due to happen.Cheers[/color]

[Skakus]

 
You're a good man ego.

Thanks for all your valuable help.

[albertojonas]

HELP plz 
the more i read the more confused i get.


How to play every trail?


Random walk 3 i don't yet know how to explain in writing.

Strike distribution ...

So if you get RRR BBB R B R that would be WWLWWLLW now if it continues  B R B R B R B R B R
You would get LWLWLWLWLWLWLW and if it end with red you end up witch two wins or if with two blacks you recive the losing formation XOO
[/size]
[/size]Is this only me? anyone that read this can explain me?

[malcop]

Hi All,


Interesting thread I have to admit I'm a bit lost also 


Thanks


malcop

[albertojonas]

Explanation - there is no triggers or past previous results using this method.
I just start with black and see what coming up next and catch every existing tendency towards imbalance - to do that you have to know how randomness flow or unfold.
I see it like this that my ant is stronger the randomness ant.

Sure there will be some kind of fluctuation witch will create a losing wave - utopia to say anything else.
But this topic is interesting because if you can pick any table and start at any point with 20 units and win 10 sessions over and over again with humble win target.
Then there is many various MM and capitalizing strategy witch can make it a real consistent winner or at least improve the overall strategy.

Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.

The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration

[Robeenhuut]

Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.

The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration

Hello AJ

With this progression you can  catch winning streak and could be successful with modest win goal target. You can bet alternatively R and B and only be in trouble if you catch opposite chops.
If you catch longer streaks of repeats like RRRRRRBBBBBB then you constantly add to your BR.
I wish i could read trends like ego 

Regards

[albertojonas]

hi ROB.


After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.


cheers

[Robeenhuut]

hi ROB.


After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.


cheers

Hello AJ

Thanks for an offer. I will go through posts one more time and i hope to figure them out.
I will go through my live spins to find out also how often series of EC's repeat.

Regards

[Robeenhuut]

hi ROB.


After struggling a lot, and still needing some clarification from ego, i now know the way of "reading" Ego proposes. UFF.
It was hard work to find it out, but it payed.
just shoot what you need to get explained, i will try.


cheers

Hello AJ

I checked 38 live wheel  sessions at Smart Live - around 7k spins. On average you get 9.5 sets of repeats of 4 or more and 2 sets  of at least 3 chops like RBRBRB. Only 3 times there were less than 7 sets of repeats and 6 times more than 4 or more chops.  Maybe we can exploit these results.
To me betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend.

Regards

[albertojonas]

Hello AJ

I checked 38 live wheel  sessions at Smart Live - around 7k spins. On average you get 9.5 sets of repeats of 4 or more and 2 sets  of at least 3 chops like RBRBRB. Only 3 times there were less than 7 sets of repeats and 6 times more than 4 or more chops.  Maybe we can exploit these results.
To me betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend.

Regards

the point of the testing was not to test the progression. that part was only to try the profitability of it =).
The real thing was about getting the unfold of events.
To get the random walk working with the flow of events.
=)
If you want we can open a new thread and brainstorm on "betting alternating between R and B with your progression could produce nice results if we catch a trend."
There are also many other strategies of throwing a random pattern into the distribution. But more on that latter if you're up to.

Cheers

[albertojonas]

Just made 3 tests of what i believe Ego refers to as his Random Walk 2.

The Tests Show results Flat betting and for the sake of fun, with the foolproof progression with a bankroll of 670 units.
-by foolproof progression i mean
1 unit up as you lose the same as you win until in + or even.
at the end of the 3 tests of 300 spins each,
Flat = +34
Foolproof progression = +347
For your consideration

may EGO comment on this?
i would love to deeply understand this. Would be nice to get any sort of confirmation or correction.
Please Ego =)


Cheers

[Still]

There appear to be missing posts between #14 and #15 that make this thread hard to understand.