Some thoughts on "Hit and Run" betting.......

[TwoCatSam]

Needs more work......

Copied to Word to edit..

[TwoCatSam]

 Two thoughts:

When something is happening here, something is not happening over there.
When something is not happening here, something is happening over there.

Simple example:  When R is hitting B is not.

Keep that in mind.

Suppose you are a "H&R" kind of guy.  And you are very young, say 21.  You go to the casino every four hours and bet on the first dozen missing.  That is to say, you bet on dozens two and three every time.  You do this six times a day for sixty years.  (Yes, it's an exaggerample!)

Let's do the math:  60 yrs x 365 days x 6 trips per day = 131,400.  You played "H&R" 131,400 times.  Let us say you were right 90% of the time.  (You’d always be right 66.66% of the time.  No zero here.)

131,400 x 90% =118260


OK, you went 118,260 spins without the first dozen hitting.

Now let's do some magical squeezing.  We pluck out the number that came each time you went to the casino.  We then squeeze the remaining numbers together to make a long trot.  We then squeeze your numbers together to make a long, but shorter, trot.

We have two trots.  What did not happen in trot 1 (no first dozen) happened more often in trot 2.

VLS once proposed, and I am with him, that when you sit down at a table and play 100 spins and go back and play 100 spins, you have done exactly the same as sitting and playing 200 spins.  Think about it:  The wheel doesn't know if you are there or not.

So here's how it shakes out:  You went 118,260 spins without a first dozen hitting.  It that for real?

Too many of you are thinking of time at a roulette wheel and time as we know it are the same.  They are not.

And when you say it works for you, you are in the wrong tense.  You should be saying, "It has been working for me."

One of our computer programmers could write a simple program to prove the above. 

Really no need to.  People will believe as they wish.

TwoCatSam

 

[Drazen]

Dear TCS


I think programers (Bayes) already proved that this doesnt work. He tryed to simulate hit n run, but results i am afraid were same in the end


Regards


Drazen

[Master_of_pockets]

This is an excellent post TCS.
But unfortunately even with your perfect and simple explanation they won t understand.
They simply can t get that the spins are adding up.

And it was very good that u also mentioned the silly phrase:it works for me . LoL.
It was in my mind to mention it , but u covered me.