2 up zero down even chance progression

[GLC]

Here's a very good bet progression method that helps us stay in control, somewhat.

It's a very slow progression which means our enemy is if we have a high loss to win ratio, it will take quite a while to grind out of a drawdown, or we will have to bite the bullit and take a loss. 

At the same time, because it's a slow progression, we will not go too deep in the hole, unless the loss percentage drops below 35-37% which doesn't happen often and usually for only a short while.  With that low a hit rate, we lose with almost any progression except a martingale with enough steps that we catch wins often enough to reset.  But, with a martingale, we run the risk of a  steak of losses that causes us to give it all back.

We start by betting a unit on an even chance.  On the 1st loss, we write the 1 down to start our recovery line.  Every time we lose we write that amount on the right end of the line.  Our line builds this way:

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 etc...

This means that we write each number down 2 times, each time representing a loss.

We have to win at each number in order to move to the next number.  I.e. if we're betting the 1st 1, we continue to bet 1 until we have a win.  Then we move to the 2nd 1 and continue to bet it until we have a win and then we move to the 1st 2 unit bet.  So, as soon as we win we cross off that number and just play the number to the right.

Please note that the numbers to the right have no relationship to the units we are betting at present.  They do represent units we will bet eventually, maybe.

Up to this point, there's nothing unique about this progression.  It's just a stretched Oscar's Grind such that you must win twice before you more up to the next bet size.

We play until we reach a new profit, or exhaust the bets in our line.

The Safety Brake:

We know that a straight Oscar's Grind is ultimately a losing bet progression.  Adding another step to it doesn't make it a winning bet progression, it just slows it down. 

Since we know that we are going to lose more bets than we win, (unless we've discovered a bet selection method that wins more times than it loses, in which case we should never, ever use any kind of progression) so we need to have a method of bringing our bet line to an end even if it means we will not have recovered all our losses.

If you test this bet line a little you will notice that you reach a new profit before you catch up with the right end of the line.  The reason is that when you are betting 1 unit and lose say 5 times before you win even 1 bet, you will have written down 1  1  2  2  3.  This means that if you won the next 5 bets, you would win the sum of those 5 numbers or 9 units, but you only lost 5 units so you will be +4 if you lose 5 and then win 5.  Of course we would stop at the 2nd 2 which would put us at a new profit because 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 6 minus our 5 losses = +1, so we reset.

The way our safety brake works is that we will cross off more than 1 number if we start getting too far behind on wins or we're not so far behind on wins, but our bet sizes are starting to get too large.  This is based on the size of our right end number.  Let's call this number our control number.

When our control number reaches 10, we begin crossing off 2 bet numbers for each win.
Example:  Let's say we have the following line  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6  every time we lose, we will cross off another number and bet the next number.  But if we have the following  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10  since we have reached 10 losses and haven't reached a new profit, our bets are starting to get larger so we want to bring this attack to an end as quickly as is reasonable.  So, instead of only crossing off the 2nd 5 only when we win that bet, we would also cross off the 1st 6.  Our next win would leave our line looking like this  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8  9 9 10.

Why?  We wrote the numbers down 1 at a time after each loss and we're now crossing them off at twice the rate we wrote them down at.  Our hope is that we can reach the end of our line quickly before it get's too far out of hand.  It's possible to still show a profit and skip some of our bets due to the way the bet line was developed.  Other times we will still have unrecovered units.  We will just take the loss and reset.

The problem can be so great that one safety brake isn't sufficient.  So we will have others.  If our control number reaches 15, we will cross off three numbers for each win.  If our control number reaches 25, we will cross off four numbers for each win.  The longer we go without reaching a new profit, the greater the risk of a catastrophic loss.  We must try to avoid this if at all possible.

Since we add a control number for each loss, when we eliminate 2, 3 or 4 with each win, we will quickly reach the end of the bet line and we always reset to 1 when we reach the end of our bet line even if we are still in the hole.

This should be understood without my having to say it, but for the guests who might be just getting acquainted with the forum, it is always possible to have so bad a loss to win ratio that nothing can prevent disaster.  Therefore, you must always have a stop loss that you don't want to reach, but if you do, you will STOP!!!!!!  I suggest you stop for the day.  Collect yourself, regroup or whatever you want to call it before you play again.

Try it and see what you think,

GLC

[Face]

Thank you Mr. Clooney! 

[GLC]

Thank you Mr. Clooney! 

Test it and you'll really mean it.

While you're at it, try the double dozen line:

Put down two of the same number anytime you lose and cross off only one of the numbers when you win.
Example:
Start by betting 1-1.  If we lose the recovery line looks like: 1 1 and we're still betting 1-1.
If you lose again: 1 1 2 2     Still betting 1-1 and lose again 1 1 2 2 3 3
Now let's win one.  Still betting 1-1.  It looks like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 
We're still betting 1-1 and win again: 1 1 2 2 3 3.  Now we're betting 2-2.
If we continue our example with these results L L W W W L L W W W W W  be will have the following line:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7

The result of the above is a win of +4 units.
We won 10 and lost 7 and won +4.  Flat betting we would have to win 14 if we lost 7 just to break even.

I'm not saying this is infallible, but it's a very good method to bet double dozens.

I haven't decided where to put the safety brake.  I'm thinking when the control number reaches 15 is a good place to start.  It really depends on your risk tolerance.  Each person can set the safety brakes to suit themselves.

GLC

[jarabo002]

I love your double dozens methods GLC. Thanks

[GLC]

I love your double dozens methods GLC. Thanks

Thanks. 
I think you'll find you can adapt it to suit your playing style, JB002.
You can even slow it down by having to lose twice at each level before moving up a number when writing down losses.  Example we start betting 1-1 and lose, our line is: 1 1.  Let's say we lost again, our line is now 1 1 1 1.  Now if we lose again we can go to 1 1 1 1 2 2 another loss leaves our line 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2, etc...  A win still only crosses off 1 number at a time.  This is much more conservative, but some may like it especially if you thing you have a bet selection that is at the even steven mark.

It's difficult to come up with a new progression when someone has a bet selection method that's a little off the beaten track, but by posting a large variety of methods, different ones can be tested with your system to decide the one or two you like the best.

We all know that there's a risk with any progression.  Heck, I've never lost a series of spins playing some excellent progression that I would have won flat betting.  Let me say that another way.  I have never had a loss to win ratio of say 15 wins to 30 losses that caused me to lose a progression on even chances that I wouldn't have lost flat betting also.  Now I know that someone can come up with an example of a series of hand picked spins where a flat bet would have won and a progression would have lost.  But that's the exception rather than the rule.

I know that some will say that a progression loses more when it loses than flat betting and I'll agree with that statement if you'll admit that a progression wins more when it wins than flat betting.  And there are many times when a progression wins and flat betting loses.  My double dozen example above is a case in point.

Please don't misunderstand my point.  I'm not saying that if you have a bet selection that wins more bets than it losees, you should use a progression so you can win more.  Because of random swings in spin results, you can still have a progression busting run of losses that a flat bet would have weathered.  If you can flat bet and win, that's the ticket.

[IndianGuru]

GLC: I am a new member to this forum and I loved every bit of your consistent education on Money Management.

My hats-off to you on your intellectuality.

Question:Your Double Dozen Line  looks similar to Laboucher progression. Because we are betting two dozens we are adding two similar numbers at the end. Is that correct?

[GLC]

Here's a short example I did for a member who requested it via PM.


W                   +1  Reset  Anytime we're at a profit we reset
W                   +1  Reset  Ditto
L   -1    1,       -1
L   -1    1,1     -2
W   +1   1,1    -1  Everytime we win, we cross off the number we won
W   +1   1,1     0  Reset
L   -1     1        -1
L   -1     1,1     -2
W  +1    1,1     -1
W  +1    1,1      0  Reset
W   +1             +1  Reset
W   +1             +1  Reset
L    -1     1        -1
L   -1      1,1     -2
W   +1    1,1    -1
L    -1     1,1,2  -2
W   +1    1,1,2   -1
L    -2     1,1,2,2  -3 
L   -2      1,1,2,2,3   -5
L   -2      1,1,2,2,3,3   -7
W  +2     1,1,2,2,3,3  -5
W  +2     1,1,2,2,3,3   -3
L   -3      1,1,2,2,3,3,4   -6 
W  +3     1,1,2,2,3,3,4   -3
L   -3      1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4   -6
W   +3    1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4  -3
W   +4    1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4   +1  Reset
W   +1                              +1  Reset
W   +1                              +1  Reset
L   -1      1                        -1
L   -1      1,1                     -2
L   -1      1,1,2                  -3
L   -1      1,1,2,2               -4
L   -1      1,1,2,2,3            -5
W   +1    1,1,2,2,3           -4
W   +1    1,1,2,2,3           -3
W   +2    1,1,2,2,3           -1
L   -2      1,1,2,2,3,3        -3
L   -2      1,1,2,2,3,3,4     -5
W  +2     1,1,2,2,3,3,4     -3
L   -3      1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4   -6
W   +3    1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4   -3
L   -3      1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5  -6
W   +3    1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5   -3
W   +4    1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5   +1  Reset

That's 21 losses and 24 wins for +8 units vs +3 with flat betting.

As you can see, this is a tweak on +2, -2.  A pretty big tweak because we never do a -2, thus the "zero down" in the subject.  And, +2, -2 is strictly a negative progression.  Another thing I like over +2, -2 is that we always bet the leftmost, uncrossed off number which tends to keep our bets lower while we wait for the winning streak that takes us to new profits.

I didn't show how the safety brake works.

When I get some free time I will.


This is like a million other progressions.  It'll work most of the time and it'll tank every now and then.  You must be prepared for the "tankings".

[sniper]

Hello GLC,


Thank you very much for the progression.


Could you please kindly do one for single dozen.


Regards

[GLC]

Hello GLC,


Thank you very much for the progression.


Could you please kindly do one for single dozen.


Regards

I have been looking at the single dozen progression and haven't got it nailed down yet.  Here's my initial idea.

Play just like we do on even chances.  Write a number down for each loss.  Write the same number down 3 times before going on to the next number.  Cross off 1 number for each win.

So, if we start our session off with the following 12 decisions, LLLLLLWWLWLW, our recovery line would play like this:

L   -1    1      -1
L   -1     1 1     -2
L   -1     1 1 1      -3
L   -1     1 1 1 2     -4
L   -1     1 1 1 2 2     -5
L   -1     1 1 1 2 2 2     -6
W  +1    1 1 1 2 2 2     -4
W   +1   1 1 1 2 2 2     -2
L   -1    1 1 1 2 2 2 3     -3
W   +1   1 1 1 2 2 2 3     -1
L   -2     1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3     -3
W   +2   1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3     +1  Reset

We could probably start our safety brakes at 15 or even 20.

Safety brakes are a personal decision.  Start them early for keeping bets smaller, but giving up some wins and a few more losses.  Or you can make them larger which will give you more wins, but the losses will be larger.

Notice that if we didn't use safety brakes, we could eliminate the control number and just use a "win 3 times on each number" and move to the next until we are at a new profit, then reset.

The control number is just for deciding where to start winding down the spiral into the abyss when things aren't going our way.

There's a definite corelation between the number of losses we incur without having reached a new profit and our chances of doing so.

If we don't reach a new profit within 15-20 losses, we are having a bad session and if things continue we will find ourselves looking up from a pretty deep hole.  Better to have a plan to cut our losses. 

Remember F_LAT_INO's sage advice and who knows roulette better than he does?  "It's better to get wounded than killed!"

Most of us are healthy enough to recover from a wound, especially just a flesh wound.  But getting killed?

[sniper]

Thank you GLC.

The single dozen progression looks practical.

I will try it out.

Regards

[GLC]

Another sample:

L     -1        1              -1
L     -1        1,1           -2
W   +1        1,1          -1
L     -1        1,1,2        -2
L     -1        1,1,2,2     -3
L     -1        1,1,2,2,3     -4
L     -1        1,1,2,2,3,3     -5
L     -1        1,1,2,2,3,3,4     -6
L     -1        1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4     -7
L     -1        1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5     -8
W   +1        1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5     -7
L     -2         2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5      -9
L     -2         2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6    -11
W   +2        2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6     -9
L     -2        2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6     -11
W   +2        3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6     -9
W   +3        3,4,4,5,5,6,6     -6
W   +3        4,4,5,5,6,6     -3
W   +4        4,5,5,6,6     +1   Reset
L     -1         1                 -1
L     -1         1,1              -2
W   +1         1                -1
L     -1         1,2             -2
W   +1         2                -1
L     -2         2,2              -3
L     -2         2,2,3           -5
L     -2         2,2,3,3        -7
L     -2         2,2,3,3,4     -9
L     -2         2,2,3,3,4,4     -11
W   +2        2,3,3,4,4      -9
L     -2         2,3,3,4,4,5     -11
W   +2        3,3,4,4,5      -11
L     -3        3,3,4,4,5,5     -14
L     -3        3,3,4,4,5,5,6     -17
W   +3        3,4,4,5,5,6     -14
W   +3        4,4,5,5,6     -11
W   +4        4,5,5,6     -7
W   +4        5,5,6     -3
L     -5        5,5,6,6     -8
W   +5        5,6,6     -3
W   +5        6,6      +2  Reset

Please note 24 losses and 17 Wins.  Flat bet would have lost 7 units but we won 3.

I am aware that this sequence started out with a lot of losses and ended with more wins.  That's always the case when we start out with a streak of losses, we have to have a win rich series to pull back to even or plus.

A lot of scammers use this method to sell their systems.  They show a high win to loss ratio but their systems beats it.  An epitome of this would be LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWWWWWWW and they end up with a plus.  Duh??

[GLC]

The killer is too long a series like this: 
LLLWLWLWLLWLLWLLLWWLLLLWLLLWWLWWWW
Not enough Ws to close the gap on all the losses. 
I designed this one to show how the safery brake works.
Here's how the above W/L line would play:
L   -1    1     -1
L   -1    1 1    -2
L   -1    1 1 2   -3
W  +1  1 1    -2
L   -1    1 1 2 2    -3
W  +1   1 1 2 2    -2
L   -2    1 1 2 2 3    -4
W  +2   1 1 2 2 3    -2
L   -2    1 1 2 2 3 3    -4
L   -2    1 1 2 2 3 3 4    -6
W  +2   1 1 2 2 3 3 4    -4
L   -3    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4    -7
L   -3    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5    -10
W  +3   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5    -7
L   -3    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5    -10
L   -3    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6    -13
L   -3    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6    -16
W  +3   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6    -13
W  +4   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6    -9
L   -4    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7    -13
L   -4    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7    -17
L   -4    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8    -21
L   -4    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8    -25
W  +4   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8    -21
L   -5    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9    -26
L   -5    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9    -31
L   -5    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10    -36  Safety Brake, X off 2 for each win
W  +5   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10    -31
W  +6   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10    -25
L   -7     1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10    -32
W  +7    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10    -25
W  +8    1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10    -17
W  +9   1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10    -8
W  +10  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10    +2

As you can see this one worked out to reach a new high but we needed 6 wins less than losses.

Wins = 14
Losses = 20
41% win rate and we ended +2
Flat bet would have been -6

Not all will end + after having to go to the safety brake(s).  Especially if we have to go to double or triple skips.
But, we can see from the Red area how quickly the drawdowns can escalate.  That's why we need the safety brakes.

But hey,  I never claimed this to win every time!  

[Genghis]

Hi GLC,

What is the recommended BR for using this progression in double dozen. Thanks.

Regards

[GLC]

GLC: I am a new member to this forum and I loved every bit of your consistent education on Money Management.

My hats-off to you on your intellectuality.

Question:Your Double Dozen Line  looks similar to Laboucher progression. Because we are betting two dozens we are adding two similar numbers at the end. Is that correct?

Sorry IG,  I missed this post.  Didn't mean to ignore your question.


The answer to your question is, yes and no.  Yes, because when you're betting 1-1, and you lose, you do write down 1 1.  After that it depends on your wins because you continue to bet 1-1 until you win at the 1-1 level but every time you lose you write the next number in sequence.


Example:  We're betting 1-1 and we lose so we write down 1 1.
We bet 1-1 again and we lose again so we write down 2 2.  Our line is : 1 1 2 2
We bet 1-1 again because we haven't won while betting 1-1 yet.  Let's say we lose again.
Our line now looks like this:  1 1 2 2 3 3
Still betting 1-1 and we finally win.  We only cross off 1 number in our line, so: 1 1 2 2 3 3.
Our next bet is again 1-1 because the next number is another 1.  Let's win again.
Our line now looks like this: 1 1 2 2 3 3.
Now we move to betting 2-2.  If we lose we just write the next number in sequence down twice.  Like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4.
We're still betting 2-2 and we have a win:  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4.
Still betting 2-2 and we have another loss:  1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5.


So, when we lose we write the next number in sequence to the right end of the line and when we win we cross off the left number (only 1 number here) of the line and move to the next number for our next bet. 


Remember, we only move to the next number in the line after a win.  After losses, we remain at the same number but continue to write down larger numbers on the right end.


We always bet the leftmost number on each dozen.  We could write the above line like this:
1-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-2, 3-3, 3-3, 4-4, 4-4, 5-5, 5-5.  That's maybe a little more clear but extra writing for nothing.


This line recovers before you win enough times to cross off the whole line because we are writing down larger numbers when we lose than we are betting.


Because it's a 2:1 payoff, we will be winning, generally, twice as often as we will be losing.  That's why we can write down 2 numbers when we lose and only cross of 1 number when we win.

[GLC]

Hi GLC,

What is the recommended BR for using this progression in double dozen. Thanks.

Regards

I don't have a hard stop-loss.  My rule of thumb is to have 10 times my win target. 


I would need a BR of 200 units for a win target of 20 units.


Remember, we still need to come up with a reasonable safety brake for double dozens.  You could use the same brakes as with even chances.  If your line looks like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10;  at this point you could start crossing off 2 numbers on the left end after each win.  Maybe 10 is too high, so try 8 and see how it plays.


There's no absolute number yet.  We can determine that as a forum or a individuals.


Remember, this is really just a bet progression idea, not a complete system.


GLC