2 up zero down even chance progression

[Tomla021]

another good one george

[GLC]

another good one george

Been having good luck with this concept on the double streets, single streets, dozens, double dozens etc...  Heck, I guess if it works well on one, it'll probably do well on all of them.

I think I'll do some runs on Skakus' W/L series he posted on his JL test.  See if it works as well as his positive/negative progression idea.  Which, by the way, I think is a novel bet method.    I'm glad somebody thought of it.

[GLC]

Here's a short example of the bet progression "2 up zero down" on Skakus'  bet results. 
As you can see, it works very well with a good bet selection method.

07/08/2012                                         Bet Amt                               + total
EVEN     1   W   301                             +1                       +1 Reset +1
LOW      2   W   303                              +1                       +1 Reset +2
07/08/2012
LOW      1   W   304                              +1                        +1 Reset +3   
LOW      2   L   302                                -1    1                   -1
ODD      2   L   300                                 -1    11                 -2
ODD      3   W   303                               +1      1                 -1
ODD      3   L   300                                 -1       12              -2
BLACK    3   L   297                              -1       122             -3
ODD      4   W   301                               +1         22             -2
07/08/2012
BLACK    1   W   302                             +2           2             0 Reset +3
BLACK    2   L   300                               -1    1                    -1
EVEN     1   W   301                               +1                           0 Reset +3
EVEN     2   L   299                                 -1    1                    -1
ODD      1   W   300                                +1                           0 Reset +3
ODD      2   W   302                                +1                         +1 Reset +4
07/08/2012
ODD      1   L   301                                   -1    1                   -1
ODD      2   L   299                                   -1    11                 -2
HIGH     3   L   296                                   -1    112               -3
EVEN     4   L   292                                   -1    1122             -4
EVEN     5   L   287                                   -1    11223           -5
BLACK    3   L   284                                 -1    112233         -6
LOW      2   W   286                                 +1      12233         -5
LOW      3   W   289                                 +1        2233         -4
LOW      3   W   292                                 +2          233         -2
LOW      2   W   294                                 +2            33          0 Reset +4
LOW      1   W   295                                 +1                        +1 Reset +5
LOW      1   W   296                                 +1                        +1 Reset +6
LOW      1   L   295                                   -1    1                   -1
LOW      2   W   297                                 +1                          0 Reset +6
RED      1   L   296                                     -1    1                   -1
HIGH     2   L   294                                    -1    11                  -2
RED      3   W   297                                   +1      1                  -1
RED      2   W   299                                   +1                           0 Reset +6
RED      1   L   298                                      -1      1                  -1
RED      2   L   296                                      -1      11                -2
LOW      3   W   299                                  +1         1                -1
LOW      2   L   297                                    -1          12              -2
LOW      3   L   294                                    -1          122            -3
RED      4   W   298                                   +1            22            -2
HIGH     3   W   301                                  +2              2             0 Reset +6
HIGH     2   L   299                                    -1      1                     -1
RED      3   W   302                                   +1                              0 Reset +6
RED      2   W   304                                   +1                            +1 Reset +7
07/08/2012
RED      2   L   302                                     -1    1                        -1
LOW      3   L   299                                    -1    11                      -2
LOW      4   L   295                                    -1    112                     -3
BLACK    5   L   290                                  -1    1122                   -4
BLACK    5   W   295                                +1      122                   -3
BLACK    4   W   299                                +1        22                   -2
BLACK    4   L   295                                   -2       223                 -4
HIGH     4   W   299                                   +2         23                 -2
HIGH     3   L   296                                     -2         233               -4
RED      4   W   300                                    +2           33               -2
RED      3   W   303                                    +3             3              +1 Reset +8
RED      2   L   301                                      -1    1                        -1
ODD      3   L   298                                     -1    11                       -2
HIGH     3   W   301                                   +1     1                       -1
RED      2   L   299                                      -1      12                     -2
LOW      3   W   302                                   +1        2                     -1
LOW      2   L   300                                     -2        22                    -3
EVEN     3   W   303                                   +2         2                    -1
EVEN     2   W   305                                   +2                              +1 Reset +9
HIGH     1   L   304                                      -1    1                         -1
HIGH     2   L   302                                      -1    11                       -2
ODD      2   W   304                                    +1      1                        -1
ODD      1   W   305                                    +1                                 0 Reset +9
ODD      1   L   304                                      -1       1                        -1
HIGH     2   W   306                                    +1                                  0 Reset +9
HIGH     1   W   307                                    +1                                +1 Reset +10
07/08/2012
LOW      1   L   306

Next, I'll jump down and see how it handles a series of his spins that he loses 108 units on and see how we hold up.

[Skakus]

Hi GLC.

I've attached my most recent loss of 108 units.

See how you go.

[GLC]

Hi GLC.

I've attached my most recent loss of 108 units.

See how you go.

14/09/2012                        Bet Amt       Control #       Result          + Total
ODD      1   W   1957             +1                                    +1              +1   Reset     
14/09/2012
ODD      2   L   1955               -1          1                        -1         
HIGH     2   W   1957             +1                                     0               +1   Reset
ODD      3   L   1954               -1          1                        -1
ODD      3   L   1951               -1          11                      -2
HIGH     4   L   1947              -1           112                   -3
LOW      5   L   1942              -1           1122                 -4
LOW      6   L   1936              -1           11223               -5
LOW      6   W   1942            +1             1223               -4
LOW      5   L   1937              -1             12233             -5 
LOW      5   W   1942            +1               2233             -4
LOW      4   W   1946            +2                 233             -2
LOW      3   L   1943              -2                  2334           -4
LOW      4   L   1939              -2                  23344         -6
LOW      4   W   1943            +2                    3344         -4
LOW      3   L   1940             -3                     33445       -7
LOW      3   L   1937             -3                     334455     -10
14/09/2012
BLACK    3   W   1940         +3                   34455        -7
EVEN     4   L   1936             -3                   344556      -10
EVEN     4   W   1940           +3                    44556       -7
EVEN     5   L   1935             -4                    445566     -11
EVEN     5   W   1940           +4                    45566       -7
14/09/2012
BLACK    6   W   1946         +4                    5566          -3
RED      7   W   1953             +5                     566          +2              +3   Reset
BLACK    8   L   1945          -1        1                             -1
RED      7   L   1938             -1         11                          -2
ODD      6   L   1932            -1          1122                      -3
ODD      6   W   1938           +1           122                      -2
ODD      7   W   1945           +1            22                       -1
14/09/2012
LOW      8   L   1937            -2             223                    -3
LOW      7   W   1944           +2             23                     -1
LOW      8   L   1936            -2              233                   -3 
LOW      7   L   1929            -2              2334                 -5
LOW      7   L   1922            -2              23344               -7
LOW      8   W   1930           +2              3344                -5
14/09/2012
EVEN     8   W   1938           +3               344                -2
14/09/2012
LOW      9   L   1929             -3               3445               -5 
EVEN     9   W   1938           +3                4455             -2
RED     10   W   1948            +4                  455            +2              +5   Reset
14/09/2012
ODD     11   L   1937            -1        1                             -1 
ODD     10   W   1947           +1                                       0               +5   Reset
ODD     11   W   1958           +1                                      +1              +6   Reset
14/09/2012
EVEN    12   L   1946           -1        1                             -1
EVEN    11   W   1957          +1                                       0               +6    Reset
LOW     12   L   1945            -1        1                             -1 
HIGH    11   L   1934            -1        11                           -2
RED     10   L   1924             -1        112                         -3
EVEN    10   L   1914           -1        1122                       -4
BLACK   11   L   1903         -1        11223                     -5     
14/09/2012
EVEN    12   L   1891           -1        112233                   -6 
14/09/2012
ODD     13   L   1878            -1        1122334                  -7
14/09/2012
EVEN    13   L   1865           -1         11223344               -8
14/09/2012
HIGH    13   W   1878           +1          1223344              -7
14/09/2012
HIGH    14   W   1892           +1            223344               -6
14/09/2012
RED     15   L   1877              -2            2233445             -8
RED     14   W   1891            +2            233445               -6
RED     15   W   1906            +2              33445               -4
15/09/2012
ODD     16   L   1890             -3              334455              -7
ODD     15   L   1875             -3              3344556           -10
ODD     14   L   1861             -3              33445566         -13
BLACK   13   L   1848          -3             33445566          -16  +6 = -10 final result

Even though I didn't lose -108 units with "2 up zero down", it can!
These spins are more favorable than other spins would be.  I'm pretty sure that Skakus' progression can win more in certain sequences than "2 up 0 down."

36 Losses = 59%
25 Wins = 41%
WLLWLLLLWLLWLLWLLLWLLL  This is the sequence that hurts "2 up 0 down."  Of course that's a 72.7% lose rate which will kill everything except a martingale.
Also, "2 up 0 down" needs 2 or more Wins in a row to make any headway.

It's a slow, modified, positive progression.  I say modified because it doesn't move backwards until it reaches a new high or we employ the safety brake and exhaust our line. 
That means we will have to take a loss sometimes so we can reset in order to not be totally wiped out by an extended killer sequence.

If there are any questions about how I'm playing it, just ask. 
And remember, this progression type works well on lines, streets, dozens, dbl dozens, etc...  It's not perfect and it can have to take a loss every now and then which always hurts, but it keeps us from being killed which gives us a chance to stay in the game and take advantage of the favorable sequences.

GLC

[GLC]

This post supercedes my post above on "2 up 0 down" for single dozens.

We play the single dozen or single column bets using all the same numbers as the even chance bet but we multiply each number by 2.  That's because an even chance is a 1 to 1 payoff and a dozen is a 2 to 1 payoff.

The only difference is that we write down 4 of each number, representing 1 number for each loss when playing the dozens, instead of 2 of each number representing 1 number for each loss when playing the even chances.  And, we cross off 2 numbers for each win when playing dozens instead of 1 number for each win when playing even chances.  If you think about this for a moment, you'll see exactly why we do this.  It has to do with the pay-out per unit bet ratio.

Illustration:  If we have no wins and 5 losses on the even chance bet our line will look like this:
1 1 2 2 3. (Remember, we are still only betting 1 unit because we don't have 2 wins yet.

If we have no wins and 5 losses on the single dozen bet our line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2.

If we have no wins and 10 losses on the single dozen bet our line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3.  Also, still only betting 1 unit because haven't had 2 wins yet.

If we now have 3 wins in a row, the above line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3.
 
We would be down -2 at this time because we lost 10 bets at 1 units each and won 2 bets at 1 with a 2:1 payout  netting 4 units and 1 bet at 2 units netting 4 units = 8 units.         -10+8= -2 units.


SAFETY BRAKES:


When we get something like this: 11223344556677889910 10, it's time to incorporate the safety brake and start crossing off 4 number for each win instead of only 2 numbers.

Our safety brakes are:
   
At 10 we cross off 4 numbers for each win instead of 2.
At 15 we cross off 6 numbers for each win instead of 3.
At 25 we cross off 8 numbers for each win instead of 4.

This will exhaust our line more quickly giving us the opportunity to reset.  We will have to take a loss most of the time when we have to incorporate the safety brakes and the larger a bet level we get to, the larger our loss will be, but it's necessary to give up some units along the way rather than play each attack till death do us part.

The safety brakes don't come into play that often.  Most of the time we will reach a new profit before we lose enough times to reach 10 unit bets or higher.

When we reach 10 unit bets or higher, it means we are having a very bad session and we should be happy to get out of it without losing our shirt.  Well, we might lose our shirt, but hopefully not our pants too.


This can be played on any of the pay-off locations.  1 to 1; 2 to 1; 5 to 1; 8 to 1; 11 to 1; 17 to 1; 35 to 1.


It can also be used as the bet progression for any of your bet selection methods for any of the different pay-offs.  This includes matrices.


When playing double dozens, you can use the method I posted above which works just fine, or you can just play the single dozen method on each dozen separately.  This means that when you bet your double dozen, you won't be betting the same amount on each dozen.  It'll depend on where each of the 2 dozens are in their own bet line.


Same thing for multiple Lines, Streets, etc...


You will have to determine a stop-loss that fits you pocket book and playing style.


This bet method is actually the guts of Full TrioPlay/Tera TNT which happens to be my favorite systems.  I just tweaked it to make it more user friendly. 


I think it's an improvement if you don't mind my saying so.

[GLC]

Test it and you'll really mean it.

While you're at it, try the double dozen line:

Put down two of the same number anytime you lose and cross off only one of the numbers when you win.
Example:
Start by betting 1-1.  If we lose the recovery line looks like: 1 1 and we're still betting 1-1.
If you lose again: 1 1 2 2     Still betting 1-1 and lose again 1 1 2 2 3 3
Now let's win one.  Still betting 1-1.  It looks like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 
We're still betting 1-1 and win again: 1 1 2 2 3 3.  Now we're betting 2-2.
If we continue our example with these results L L W W W L L W W W W W  be will have the following line:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7

The result of the above is a win of +4 units.
We won 10 and lost 7 and won +4.  Flat betting we would have to win 14 if we lost 7 just to break even.

I'm not saying this is infallible, but it's a very good method to bet double dozens.

I haven't decided where to put the safety brake.  I'm thinking when the control number reaches 15 (This is a mistake.  I meant to make it 5 just like the even chance bet) is a good place to start.  It really depends on your risk tolerance.  Each person can set the safety brakes to suit themselves.

GLC

The safety brakes would begin when the rightmost number = 5 at which time we would cross off 2 numbers for each win.

Then at 10 where we would cross off 3 numbers for each win.

Then at 15 where we would cross off 4 numbers for each win.

[catalyst]

Same thing for multiple Lines, Streets, etc...


You will have to determine a stop-loss that fits you pocket book and playing style.


I think it's an improvement if you don't mind my saying so.

dear George
i modified it for my sector bet: 1111222233334444 etc without safety brake. i bet 4 times before i move to next number. last night i scored 200 units. i have decided to use this variations for my one dozen method too. trying to incorporate partial parlay into it. thanks a lot. this forum salute you.
catalyst

[GLC]

i bet 4 times before i move to next number (Cat, do you "bet" 4 times then move, or do you have to "win" 4 times before you move?)
catalyst

This bet progression method can be expanded to slow it down as far as you want.  In other words, instead of writing down  1  1  2  2  3  3, you could expand it to  1  1  1  2  2  2  3  3  3 or 4 times at each level or even more.  This means you will have to win three times at each level before you move to the next higher bet.

The trade-off is that you need a higher win ratio to get to a new profit than when you're increasing your bets more quickly.  All I'm trying to do is to be able to eke out a win with a series of spins that we would have lost a little or won less were we flat betting.  This does introduce the possibility of a larger loss every now and then over flat betting.  There's ALWAYS a trade-off.

It's like my financial advisor is always prodding me for.  How much risk am I willing to take for the potential reward I can get?   Only you can decide that.

[catalyst]

This bet progression method can be expanded to slow it down as far as you want.  In other words, instead of writing down  1  1  2  2  3  3, you could expand it to  1  1  1  2  2  2  3  3  3 or 4 times at each level or even more.  This means you will have to win three times at each level before you move to the next higher bet.

dear George
i used to employ an extended modified fibo in which recovery from a hole was slower. but this one is better as i bet 4 times for each numer in the series before i move to the next one. but if there is a win, i go to next number without finishing 4 times and when i recover or close to recover, i reset counter. in this way i dont use safety brake.
George, this one is slow but good progession. do you remember from the school book:slow and steady wins the race.

thanks
catalyst

[IndianGuru]

GLC:
Dou still suggest 200 unit BR for all the below scenarios ? for this MM?
1-EC's
2-Dobule Dozens
3-Single Dozens

If not please give me a ball park BR for individual selections. So that I am well equiped to fight the battle. Thanks again.

[GLC]

GLC:
Dou still suggest 200 unit BR for all the below scenarios ? for this MM?
1-ECs
2-Dobule Dozens
3-Single Dozens

If not please give me a ball park BR for individual selections. So that I am well equiped to fight the battle. Thanks again.

IndianGuru, 

Remember, I suggest a buy-in/stop-loss of 10 times your win target.  In my testing, I play to a win target of 20 units therefore I use a bank of 200 units.  With this new tweak, I haven't lost 200 units yet.  The safety brake has saved me each time I get too deep in the hole.  The safety brake may kick in so well that we can never lose our 200 units before being saved from total disaster.  I must admit that I haven't tested this enough to be too emphatic on if or how often you must take a total loss. 

I think what is more likely to happen is that we will have a series of spins that we keep getting saved by the safety brake, but we are still losing units and we don't win enough +10 or +20 unit win targets to prevent finally hitting our stop-loss.

I'm sorry, but all my testing is done by hand and I don't have the time to test enough to state anything close to absolutes.

Have you been watching Skakus' JL type challenge?  He plays until he's +8 or -108.
That's close enough to my suggestion for me.

Forgive me if what I'm about to write causes your eyes to glass over, but I feel that I can't repeat it too often.
I suggest 10 times your win target but I think 20 times your win target is better as long as you understand that with 20 times your win target, you will reach your win target a lot more times than if you only have a stop-loss of 10 times your win target.  The trade-off with 20 times your win target is that a loss, and I think there will be a loss if you play long enough, a loss really sets you back a lot of hours of play.  It can be very discouraging, but I think it's preferable.

You could set your win target at 1 unit and a stop-loss at 10 for even chances (I wouldn't recommend this for double dozens)  You would lose much more often, but your losses wouldn't be so phychologically devastating.  I think you would still need at least 100 units to play this way.  That would give you 10 losses before you're wiped out.

Remember, when we only give ourselves a small window for ups and downs in our play, we tend to handcuff ourselves by not giving us enough wiggle room to pull out of small to moderate drawdowns.  We also don't give ourselves enough time to take full advantage of our safety brakes.

I suggest a reasonable stop-loss so we can incorporate all aspects of the system, and the safety brakes are an important part of the system.

Why not test the -108 or +8 parameters and see if you like playing under those conditions before you go to the casino and risk any money?  If you can play on-line, like Sam does for dimes, I suggest you do that until you are totally familiar with how the system plays. 

Try the even chances, double dozens and single dozens and see which one you like the best.

Remember the admonitions of Bayes and F_LAT_INO to be very familiar with the game to improve your chances to win.  Practicing for dimes adds enough spice to keep you interested in the results and let's you test under actual conditions.

Good luck to you my friend,

GLC

[ego]

-

It is cruel to find a balance between what should be the Loss-Limit and Win-Target as it defines what kind of Strike Ratio we should have with particular method.

Cheers

[IndianGuru]

Thank you George. I will take your suggestions to my heart.
" I guess it is better stand drink water than run far and drink Milk"

[catalyst]

Remember, when we only give ourselves a small window for ups and downs in our play, we tend to handcuff ourselves by not giving us enough wiggle room to pull out of small to moderate drawdowns.  We also don't give ourselves enough time to take full advantage of our safety brakes.

I suggest a reasonable stop-loss so we can incorporate all aspects of the system, and the safety brakes are an important part of the system.

win and loss tend to follow the Bell Curve. therefore, to follow up and downs, some one need to incorporate all the aspects of the system including Brett Morton's idea of safety net presented here by George long before which i employ often.