A simple test that would gain you a Nobel prize

[Kav]

According to current probabilities theory, roulette is a game of independent trials and independent probabilities. No mainstream professor on probabilities would accept that past results can influence future results.

One of the reasons for this thesis, is that academics care about "single spin" probabilities than groups of spins. (but more on roulette group probabilities in the future)

Anyway, if someone can prove that previous spins can give us information for next spins, he would turn mainstream probability theory upside down, and most probably would win a Nobel prize.

Here's a simple test to prove that previous spins offer info for following spins.

Research

1. Take a database of past roulette spins - like that of Wiesbaden
2. Search for series of 50 consecutive spins with less than 12 appearances of one color. (that is around three standard deviations from normal distribution)
3. Record the appearances of that color in the following 50 consecutive spins.

Result

Theoretically in step 3, both colors have the same probabilities of appearing. For example, in 20 tests, 10 times should be in favor of the one color (the prevailing color in the previous 50 spins) and 10 times in favor of the other (the less appearing color in the previous 50 spins).
However, real tests show that the next 50 spins are in favor of the color that did not appear in the previous 50 spins.

Test for yourself.

[F_LAT_INO]

However, real tests show that the next 50 spins are in favor of the color that did not appear in the previous 50 spins.

Test for yourself.



Kav,
Few years back,on old VLS we tested it on all outside E/C in cycles of 80 spins,
and it is fact that in almost 85% next 80 spins would be in favour of opposite.

[TwoCatSam]

FLATman

I hereby confer on you the "KNOW BELL" prize.   (If you knew Bell like I knew Bell, you'd understand.)

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

All joking aside, how can an intimate object have any knowledge of any kind?

My bowling ball is embarrassed because it only got four pins last shot.  This time it will get a strike.

Other than memory, what other personification could be applied to rocks and things.

Sam

[Drazen]

Well we know to whom the bell tolls , dont we?

Cheers

Drazen

[F_LAT_INO]

FLATman

I hereby confer on you the "KNOW BELL" prize.   (If you knew Bell like I knew Bell, you'd understand.)

Sam

Don't know Bell as you do.....but do know you have witnessed this phenomena of 80 spins.

Remember secret Compas section.

[Turner]

All joking aside, how can an intimate object have any knowledge of any kind?

My bowling ball is embarrassed because it only got four pins last shot.  This time it will get a strike.

Other than memory, what other personification could be applied to rocks and things.

Sam

Sam...you really love your bowling ball dont you? Thats why you said intimate instead of inanimate

Turner

[Robeenhuut]

Hello Kav

Can you provide any statistics regarding this phenomena?  So the idea is to flat bet next 50 spins the less dominant chance?  Flat mentioned that it happens in 85% of 80 spins cycles.

[ego]

-

You need a march to capitalize on something that has not show during a window of events or after 3.00 STD - i have already post a full working playing model regarding this flat betting with users that report back they have success.

Then when you deal with underrepresented and overrepresented events the correction comes with tiny waves or medium waves or large waves.
Is not a law - but we know that correction exist and always is present after a strong imbalance based upon a valid playing model.

You need to aim for plus 1 to get it to work then apply regression or lower you bet size.
As if you can get plus 1 to overcome the amount of attempts doing so - then you have positive expectation flat betting.

I should also add that i have provide every one with free software to run there own simulations and get significant statistical results based upon the same principal as this topic.

[Kav]

Hello all,

Thanks for the constructive replies.
We already have two confirmations that such phenomena is observed (by F_LAT_INO and ego).
Guys, do you understand, if true, how remarkable and groundbreaking such an observation is, in relation to mainstream probability theory? Therefore, I urge anyone interested to do their own tests and report back. We need a bigger sample, more tests. Could someone make a little program so we can test many spins?

ego,
could you please post links to your strategy and software?

So the first step is to confirm that indeed corrections to take place in the frame of 100 or 160 spins (and win the Nobel prize)
The next step is to find out how to capitalize on that.

[MuppetMan]

While I also believe in corrections finding 12 or less in 50 would take some time.

[ego]

While I also believe in corrections finding 12 or less in 50 would take some time.

If you are alone and not have a team - then you track all three even money positions.
That is total around 900 trails during 8 hours collecting data.

Then you will get at least one up to three or four 3.0 STD during each week.

@Kav send you a PM about the this topic.

[TwoCatSam]

Just food for thought--it's kept me up many nights.

Suppose it's not a memory, but a principle.

I could build a refrigerator that would run off a horse.  Seriously.  Or an ox.  Or many men.  Suppose I took this refrigerator--via the TwoCat Time Machine--to the year 1,500 A.D.  Suppose I made ice.  I would be burned at the stake.

The principle of refrigeration would seem black magic to them.

Suppose there is a principle concerning numbers that is as foreign to us as to refrigeration is to them.

I have long theorized that certain groups of numbers inspire or incite other numbers to come.  I have witnessed this phenomenon for years.  I believe it has something to do with chaos theory and strange attractors.  (I am just guessing!) 

Imagine a scoreboard at a basketball game.  It is not the score, it only reports the score.  What if a roulette wheel is only reporting the numbers?  It does not choose the numbers, but reports for a "higher authority"?  Study on that one for a while!!   

And it works exactly the same with BV RNG.  Or Random.org. 

TwoCat

[Ralph]

Sam I like that, we should allways be open to "OUT OF THE BOX"


The Swedish Central Bank has create the world crisis, just by invented a Nobel Prize in economics.

The Guys (yes its male) get a prize for saying MAN is rational in economics.
Everyone should know it is not rational thinking in shopping, or chose a car.

The prize has reputation, and this guys influence the politics, and there we are!!!!

Swedish Central bank got power, not by the SEK, by the illegal price which was not i Alfred Nobles will.

[TwoCatSam]

Thanks, Ralph.  If my wife could, she'd put me back in the box!! 

Doing a lot of testing lately.  On Murph's numbers, he says do not bet the 0,8,17,26 or 35.  I am amazed as I look over my sheets how connected these numbers are.  Rarely will one hit that another does not within seven spins.  Many hit three and four times before they stop.

This is numbers flocking like birds on a wire.  Saw it years ago when working on the CHICO/MURPH system and it's still happens years later.

There has to be a winning idea there somewhere.

Sorry, I got off topic a bit........

Sam