My Best Guess at a Test of the L v F System

[rouletteKEY]

Sam,

  I have been following this method and your test of it on a very casual basis, as a student of the game, but have not really immersed myself into it as it is just not a style of play I favor.

  That being said, because this is a casual contact type thing for me there is the distinct possibility I am missing something in the whole scheme of things (maybe even missing some really big things).

   I took 10 minutes on your results spreadsheet (no more in-depth analysis)...like I said this might be impractical with me glossing over most salient details.

   I tallied 13 total non-recoverable losses at your 400 stop-loss.

   I guess I am looking at his from a money management perspective.

   If you stopped play at 100 down (just looking at your drawdown column) you would still have 68 wins...I didn't add up those wins but let's just call it 75 units for an average win...+5100

    You now have 34 losses at the -100 including the 13 that took you out to your 400 stop-loss...so that's -3400...leaving you +1700 overall

   Then you had 21 sessions that later would have recovered from the 100 stop-loss and went on to win.  Now obviously some of these went below the 100 in real-time continuous play (11 of the 21 went beyond the 200 drawdown to later recover and only 2 went beyond 300 drawdown) So your point of re-entry into a subsequent session would be of critical importance to the test.  My point being...there is more profit potential in the method by utilizing mid-session stop-loss points and then re-entering the game to complete...remember all 21 of these recovered from deficits of over 100 (11 of over 200 so there would be addiitonal stop-losses hit if the re-entry point wasn't good) to get you to a session ending victory in your tests...

   This may all be completely redundant in the conversation on this method...Know (think I guess is better term) you are just testing per FLAT's specs on spin count and stop-loss points...
like I said...I have really not done a great job of studying this throughout it's development and all of these points may have been discussed and vetted throughout the process before you began your trek here....if that's the case...sorry for taking up a bunch of space on your testing post.
   
   
   Just an outsider looking in from a business perspective as to how this might logically play.

   Hope the wife is still on the mend.

[TwoCatSam]

KEY

I think enough of your post to print it and take it with me to the hospital

My wife had a small stroke after her surgery.  It is related to blood thinners.  Won't elaborate.  She is fine and when they get her stabilized, she can come come--probably today.

Thank you for that in-depth analysis.  I will respond.

Sam

[trebor]

Now I've finished with the pre Christmas mayhem I can get back to this.

One thing that's been in my mind is that most losing sessions just seem to go from bad to worse and most winning ones win quite quickly.

Mind you, it's easy to back fit stoplosses especially when dealing with limited sessions.

I'm looking into it.

Trebor

[trebor]

Another four.


20 sessions tested.


15 winning.


5 hit the -400 stoploss.


Out of the 15 winning only two went past -100 and recovered to win.


I know it's not many to draw conclusions on but it suggests that it's a struggle to recover from a 100 point drawdown.


Trebor

[Bettor 27]

One thing that's been in my mind is that most losing sessions just seem to go from bad to worse and most winning ones win quite quickly.

To improve the strikerate, I have been thinking about adding a virtual bet filter at the start until there was an +10/-10 (or more) in-balance between the W/L. This would then trigger the betting...

[TwoCatSam]

Today's sad results attached.

KEY

Read your post many times today.  Does your idea boil down to this:  Begin a session and play to a stop loss of X.  Then return and play to X2 and maybe X3.  Like 100, 200, 300?

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

It's too many numbers for me to play...but for somebody else??   ...could go a couple ways

It would be something to consider...multiple sessions...strung together after 100 unit drops
Calculate a trigger mechanism...reach the 100 stop...if it drops another 50 or 75 begin then maybe...I don't know the system well enough to comment intelligently on what would constitute a good trigger to re-start.

It just seems most methods seem to move in waves and if you enter at the wrong point you are screwed right from the get-go and if you enter at the precise right moment you are rolling in it.  The key obviously is recognizing those triggers or clues before you get in too deep...nothing is infallible...I just know digging out of deep holes is tough to do and usually needless in most cases.

Based on your numbers through this morning if you just quit at your gain goal or bailed out at -100 your strikerate was strong enough to have still garnered a 1575 unit profit in less than a month with 34 losing sessions against 68 winners.  Everybody can do the math to fit their bankroll but even at $5 units you seem pretty stable...you'd be up almost $8000 in less than a month and you never risk more than $500 on a session...

If you were more aggressive...figure triggers to continue play after the first stop-loss.

On a tight bank you could enhance your odds maybe by waiting for a trigger...problem is you could be tracking forever before entering the game and if it still went south...well...emotionally that would just suck...but a risk we all take.

Just seems like alot of methods fail or fall short of their potential because we are willing to take a much larger loss (overall for the day or week) than we are looking for in a win.  Why would we risk losing $400 to gain $75? (I personally don't even like EC's..why risk 1 to win 1...now I risk 5 to gain 1...that's a house edge)

I know the win vs loss rate helps to dictate that basis for the risk we are willing to take...it just seems like if a system is considered doing well to make 70 or 80 units...why would we wait for it to take us -400 where we need 6 session of wins to get us out of the hole?  Chalk it up to bad timing and come back in another hour or another day.  Remember we were happy that the system performed well enough to get us 75 or 80 in the plus...why would we expect that same system to drag us up out of a -400 hole in the same single session we were originally hoping for +80 out of? 

[ugly bob]

Just seems like a lot of methods fail or fall short of their potential because we are willing to take a much larger loss (overall for the day or week) than we are looking for in a win.  Why would we risk losing $400 to gain $75?

Finally someone who talks sense!

All this win 10% or lose 20% is a load of nonsense! Just send the casino a cheque every week with any spare change you have if you think like that!

Would you run a business hoping to make at least $100 a day and having expenses of $200!

Good luck with that!

[Stepkevh]

Roulettekey,

so what you're saying is that this LvF has more potential when the stop loss would be set at -100 instead -400.

Stef

[rouletteKEY]

Stef...I'm saying I think we need to look at money management in general on all methods...but on this method why would we place 400 units at risk in a situation that it rarely recovers from... in order to win 75 or 80?

My main point, I suppose, was that by utilizing a stop-loss, whether that be for the day, or for a session at the table...that based on Sam's numbers if you stopped at -100, you would still have a profit of almost 1600 units for the month, without putting additional bankroll at risk for negligible return.  Many times it recovered from down 100 and sometimes it came back from down 200 or 300.

So, I would say the next point would be.  If it can regularly recover from over 100 down or 200 down in order to finish 75 or 80 up.  Could the win goals be tweaked?

The method plays too many numbers for my taste so I haven't fully investigated it but there may be some way to work the betting once you are up 60, 90, 120...to maximize the methods potential while it's running hot.

Don't know...just looking at the method casually and making some comments that might help those that are deeper entrenched in it.

[TwoCatSam]

KEY

Well, I'm as deep as you can get without spending any more capital on it!!

I thought about this while I slept.  Don't know how one would modify the tracker to do this, but what if you began a session and play until you were down 200 and then paused for a day.  Go back the next day to another table and resume right where you left off.  Possibly in the next session you will gain back your 200 and go on to win 72.  Possibly not.

I don't agree with your idea of investing 400 to win 72.  I think that is perfectly logical.  If you look at the charts, you will see many days when I only invested 9 units.  Or 18.  Or 27.  I would advance the idea one would have to look at the average daily investment (ADI) to see the true investment.

Right now, I have have some money in the marked in one form or another.  What I could lose if the coming depression materializes is vast in relation to what I earn.  Yes, I'm thinking about the mattress!

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

I thought about this while I slept.  Don't know how one would modify the tracker to do this, but what if you began a session and play until you were down 200 and then paused for a day.  Go back the next day to another table and resume right where you left off.  Possibly in the next session you will gain back your 200 and go on to win 72.  Possibly not.

I don't agree with your idea of investing 400 to win 72.  I think that is perfectly logical.  If you look at the charts, you will see many days when I only invested 9 units.  Or 18.  Or 27.  I would advance the idea one would have to look at the average daily investment (ADI) to see the true investment.


Sam

Sam,

Part of my point was about quick starts too... your days where you only have 9, 18 or 27 units invested.  If it starts out fast it seems to give you a good run.  But when it tanks, it may recover, but it may cost you more than you need to lose chasing a 75 or 80 unit overall gain.

Maybe we just fundamentally look at the game slightly different on money management. 

I usually always bet on a small amount of numbers where I can go a little deeper on a drawdown because a win brings me back so far, so fast.  This method calls for alot of bets and not quite as quick of recovery.

It's really a personal preference and style of play thing...that's why I didn't get too deep into this method because I just wouldn't play that many numbers on this type of method. 

I would just not risk 400 to win 72, to me it doesn't make good business sense.  If I was already down that much, what makes me believe the tide is going to turn now?  It just seems like you're chasing a bad run.  Walk away at down 100...come back the next day or in another hour...if you get that run that starts with only a 9, 18 or 27 unit drawdown play it a little longer.  If you get your 75 units quick keep playing, but only give yourself say 27 units from the 75 on the drawdown...if you lose you make a little less for the day but you still did okay.  If it wins...you keep playing and revising your new stop-loss against the new high.  So if you win a couple more and you are up to 150...play on but stop at 123 if you start to slide.

We both look at the big picture...we just look at a couple aspects a little differently. 

That was my take...if it helps in any way..even if it just gets you to look at something unrelated in a different way that helps...it's all good.  If it doesn't help, then we have a little time invested in a train of thought that can now be ruled out as not helpful to the cause and move forward.  It's really all about moving forward in the best and most thoroughly thought out way to get us all to our common goal.

[TwoCatSam]

Trust me--I am giving your posts much and serious thought and I thank you for your input.

You are so right about the quick win.  And the trailing stop loss is good, too.  On a good tram, one might win 200 or more.

I'm off to the hospital as my wife is not doing well. 

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

Our prayers and best wishes to your wife Sam

[iggiv]

i second that....

Our prayers and best wishes to your wife Sam