XXVV ROULETTE

[XXVV]

Greetings


It was unfortunate that the Administration removed the full text of the thread describing the new website we are developing. Despite my very polite letter to Steve, rules are rules, and the link was just one step too far. I am grateful that we were permitted to do what we did anyway.


I hope that you all saved the notes and the correspondence which was very interesting from all who participated. A big thankyou to all who took the trouble.


You may like to note that I also have written to Victor L. Senior, who as always, responds immediately and positively and that my notes will happily be transferred to another Forum. We shall see what the participants there make of it all. I expect a lot of upset people again, but with patience, we shall let the results speak for themselves.


Lost opportunity here I would have thought, on several levels. However, moving on...


I want to have a FOCUS thread here where we can accentuate the positives and bring some of the best details from other threads into a simple and clear summary.


The other threads will continue and churn away but the essence or the best can be assimilated here so as to be most helpful for us all, me included.


Best XXVV

[XXVV]

Apologies - VLS.   Please overlook the formalities.

[XXVV]

Lets get underway and list some key principles that will be fully developed later.


Our aim is to win; to win more often; to handle losing ( because that will happen sometimes); and to accentuate the positives and mitigate the negatives.


We will look at creating smarter bets, understand timing, and manage ourselves and our money with greater skill and confidence.


We will learn to read the game, ie the sequence of 'random' outcomes, and to interpret the patterns and dominant characteristics with fluency.


Understand that roulette is a game of both grand and short cycles (wheels within wheels), but that it is the short cycles that offer us the opportunities to take profit, by smart timing.


Avoid the time wasting and head banging dumb procedures that expose you to greater risk of loss. For example don't chase losses, or sleepers. Work with the force not against it.


Ecart cycles are to be understood and corrections will occur no matter your temporary edge advantage. There will be losing situations to encounter and your psychology has to cope with loss.


Keep a cool head at all times and your emotions in check.


Even though you play for short cycles know that you have several degrees of freedom over the casino. Always consider the bigger picture, and know that you can start and stop at your choice. Never be intimidated in any way by the many traps that are set in the casino environment. Know yourself- your strengths and weaknesses, and how to modify and deal with these.


See that randomness is not what you may have thought. I have seen one intelligent writer ascribe three qualities to random nature, but those qualities say more about the writer than the mystery that unfolds through random events.


Random is uneven, and is forever in motion, but at certain times may present opportunities when the mists may partially clear. It never need be seen as hostile, for that is just your emotional response. Perhaps better to remain a neutral witness, and marvel with respect, but never fear, nor ever consider you fully understand, for somethings and levels are unknowable, and that is a principle of nature, although nonsense to rationalists.


Thus tidy minds and rational beings who seek simplified easy answers are going to be disappointed. How often do we hear of players who have studied for years but confess they have made no real progress. It can be disheartening.


What I am going to offer here and elsewhere in several locations will be some direction and real progress to improve your results, and to gradually learn and enjoy to more consistently win. Note I do not say always win, for that is impossible. But to enhance winning streaks, and dampen down, shorten losing sessions. Detach your personality and pride. Sometimes to walk away with a small loss is a discretion, as they say the better part of valour. So a state of mind, a certain modesty or humility is needed although within you have confidence. Its a new balance required.
Its a mind game.


This all may seem a little glib to the cynics and naysayers and those who have been burned who feel there is no way forward.


As I have said before just watch the results that I will offer, the audited live examples played and take it step by step. Apply some of the smarter bets and techniques I will explain, and observe. I will not be offering vague clues and tantalising time wasting quests, although sometimes 'the search is good', and lateral thinking and creative expansion comes with practice. So I will offer some specifics and there will be a clear trail ahead.


We will move beyond just linear solutions, and look at several levels which to some may appear very strange and unfamiliar, but that is just an early reaction to learning more and expanding vision.


Trap bets and the setting of these various types will be explained. It is like fishing, Its a Zen thing also. So smile. LoL.


'If it works, then it works' is a fair statement and in science the explanations, or attempts at explanations, often come after discoveries. 'Discoveries' show up results previously unknown
and that is the sort of work at the frontier in which I am engaged, along with several colleagues throughout the world.


So it is experimental work, and more breakthroughs will unfold ahead. What I have learned and been shown in the last 18 months is astonishing and fuels my desire to expand and share knowledge.


So that sets a scene for a series of discussions ahead. My plan is that over a 12 month period a significant amount of worthwhile knowledge can be provided and we can all celebrate Christmas next year wiser and more prosperous. Sounds trite or too simple......Why not?


First step as soon as 2013 arrives.


Very Best
R.
XXVV

[sniper]

Hello XXVV,


Thank you very much for your ideas. Wish you the best in your roulette challenge.


May 2013 bring you and your team greater success.


Happy New Year.


Regards

[XXVV]

Here's a goal. One post a day ( on average) for the next year. A public statement so it reinforces my (self) accountability- LoL


The linked series of thoughts will be as per the above overview, but further developed on our website going into more specific detail with live examples.


Lets start with winning.


I have had a lengthy and very helpful conversation on this subject this morning with colleagues. Why limit yourself to a statistical expectation, or some acceptable margin above break even. The context of your review of 'winning' however depends on your experiences to date. In the game of roulette we are so conditioned at the 'house edge' to be overcome, that this becomes a self imposed benchmark, or rather 'financial cliff' to use current terminology.


Mr Square Roulette once wryly observed, bless him, that the most effective bet was with one chip, and that the more chips outlayed to cover other table positions, diluted the power of the player. His significant statement though was that most players, in the frenzy of live roulette bet in such ways they are offering much more than 2.7% to the house ( in Europe), more like 27% edge to the house or worse.


The emotional states of players facing loss, or even winning, can swing so wildly, unless trained, that self destruction is assured.


So lets forget the stats. Lets expect to win, given that we have done our due diligence and acquired, or accessed worthwhile data to assist us ( a massive challenge in itself). Given you have an hour you have set aside to play. Why not expect to win for most or even all of that time? Why not?


It depends literally on your state of mind.


Research winning in psychology. Know and understand the bio-chemistry involved. Know yourself and your patterns. Edit out the self destructive stuff, and abandon over reliance on statistics and self programming that is self limiting. In the mind, imagine it and its yours. that's where it all starts.


And I am not referring here to what we have termed 'elementary metaphysics'. This exercise is real, specific, and works on many levels, to the extent there is no limit.


In the context of a one hour roulette session, there is what I have termed 'a tendency toward' phenomenon that works with many smarter bets. Trap bets attempt to cover the best spread. However in an hour and working to focus on a target, or spread, why limit yourself to believing only a minor swing is possible, if any of course. The impact of the focus can be dramatic indeed, and certainly sufficient for your needs.


In another context I have suggested taking profit after three consecutive wins. Well that's about compounding and setting simple targets. Frequently such runs can occur at the table. Imagine what could be done with extra focus. Maybe still three wins, but three very big wins.


that's all about winning.
XXVV

[TwoCatSam]

Mr Square Roulette once wryly observed, bless him, that the most effective bet was with one chip, and that the more chips outlayed to cover other table positions, diluted the power of the player. His significant statement though was that most players, in the frenzy of live roulette bet in such ways they are offering much more than 2.7% to the house ( in Europe), more like 27% edge to the house or worse. 

Honestly?

Sam

[XXVV]

@TCS . Do you have the exact passage that SR wrote?  I recall it, so have paraphrased this*, and based on what I see and the rate of loss by some players who shovel chips on the table in B+M casinos, the rate of loss can be phenomenal, and much faster than one would encounter had the player been staking more conservatively (but without a winning strategy or smarter bet) and exposing their bank to a mere -2.7% negative edge.


Do you agree?  Is this mathematically correct in your opinion?



( * the exact quotation is amongst files with one of my colleagues - and will now see if I can access the book again)


Thanks.

[XXVV]

Refer Chapters 9,10,11,12 of "RoletJack's Positional Ro-Let"

If anyone is interested please PM me and I can provide link to this file.


There is some debate over the validity of some of the statements made by Mr Square Roulette, and it demonstrates to me how little we really know and understand, or effectively communicate regarding the nature of random behaviour and accurate description of risk and profit/ loss exposure.


It may be more accurate of me to state that it appears that the edge to the house is shifted by the irrational behaviour of some players in distributing their chips over the table. Mathematically, though some argue that the house edge remains, no matter what.


That does not sit squarely with me as I know from direct experience that rational usage of smart bets and more 'efficient' betting ( ie usage of less chips to achieve greater return) provides a modified positive edge based on experimental and verified data. My rule of thumb for measuring modified edge is on multiples of 1000 spins tested and the net result of gain/ loss over that period as a percentage.


Conversely, I would have thought, irrational behaviour and 'dumb' bets would add to the house edge advantage, ie a modified negative edge, but they may not be so. It may just appear so. I would be interested in expert comment please.

[TwoCatSam]

"Mathematically, though some argue that the house edge remains, no matter what."

The above quote is what I've been led to believe.

There is edge and there is rake and they are different.

I know very little about it.

Sam

[XXVV]

Thanks Sam


We have gone off on a bit of a tangent here, but its not a cul-de-sac so will explore. Some really interesting points come out of this.  Lets call it 'The Edge'. Here is a quote from a mathematician close friend :
'I tend not to agree with the "greater edge" theory- but because more is covered, turnover higher, etc., it could be seen as such. However if measured according to turnover I don't  think there is any mathematical foundation to believing that 'the edge' is anything other than that predicted by the standard maths.'


More on this asap. XXVV

[XXVV]

Refer chapter 3 of Winning Roulette by Jack Kennedy for his way of seeing things.

[XXVV]

current topics within this thread :


#1 winning - focus enables no limit to winning
       
#2  the edge -discussion on benchmark house edge and variations on this

#3  attitude - to handle wins and losses, to reinforce the positives, and minimise the negatives

[XXVV]

Next in our list of key principles is attitude.


These are subtle points because focus will bring an increased confidence and in fact, at best, is unstoppable. Understanding of the benchmark edge is important because you know the 'tide' thatyou have to overcome ( which you keep lightly in the back of your mind -its not an 'adversary') can be beaten and over a period of time, consistent net winning results will be obtained.


So, to attitude, because even with the most formidable skills and assistance imaginable, there may be sessions where the the tide is really against you, for some reason or other. So you will lose. How you handle the loss is very important. It is not a situation where you just shrug your shoulders and laugh it off. When you are a professional, losing hurts. You see it on the faces, in high definition, of the professional athletes, cricketers, footballers, tennis players and golf pros.


They learn from the experience and yes it deepens the character and should bring humility, not arrogance. That is why the very best in their fields are actually very easy and very pleasant to talk with. They are comfortable with themselves. It is the next level down where some try too hard.


Even harder to deal with may be frequent winning. Not a bad problem to have you might say, but not so if your winning streak leads to complacency, arrogance and an attitude of superiority which in an immature personality can spill into personal relationships and other life experience. It can be the start of a downhill slide. So be vigilant. Lets call it the 'Tiger Syndrome'. It can be managed in time.


Taking this a little further, it is important to battle sometimes, like an escape artist, to recover an initial setback in a session, but in reading the game, and sessions over a period of time, you may find a certain pattern unfolds.


I have said this many times before, but generally if the session starts well for you as about 50% should, then you should be able to consolidate a good profit. In some 40% of sessions you may have to fight back but eventually can recover a small gain or more, or at worst claw back to reduce a net loss. Better to do this than face a rout and the devastation on all levels that follows. In less than 10% of my sessions I do face adverse circumstances, and may have to consider retreat.


As it is said, know when to fold, and the very best poker pros certainly know that. there will be subsequent opportunities where you can more than recover that. But don't fall into the trap of the words of so many prison inmates convicted of crimes of dishonesty. Many say, if only I had access to more resources I would have recovered that loss. That is delusion. Dangerous delusion.


There are some technical guidelines I will outline later and elsewhere, but beyond a certain modest level it is better to walk away and take a loss. then re-group later or elsewhere. There is a lot of psychological processing that needs to be handled after a loss.


How many times have you lost at a table, then moved to a new location immediately, then lost a new bank even faster. It is a compulsive behaviour reaction and has to be extracted from your portfolio of personal behaviour.


A complete break and re-think is needed.


Sometimes I find I even have to break a few rules to turn a situation around. Last month I had a disastrous session and fell right into the trap of believing I could dig out. It cost me 780 units over a couple of hours play. Part of my misguided rationale for my behaviour was that this was a resource I had easily won earlier that day at the same table, in an earlier session. Another trap to avoid.


So I went to have a meal and glass of a good Marlborough Savignon Blanc.


I came back an hour later, back to the original dealer I had won so much with earlier that day and turned a toe in the water 20 units into 800 units over the following 50 spins.


I had to relax myself, reflect, recover my composure and confidence, and the same dealer was a sign that I read correctly.


So some rules can be bent, and that was a great escape.

[XXVV]

#4 Accentuate the positives.


Roulette is a game of short cycles. It is also a game of cycles within cycles within cycles, but for practical purposes as a professional player we need to focus on the shortest cycles.


The result may be that we identify a short cycle; read the game; then act. By this stage there may only be one spin to strike and take a profit. Then the game changes.


Back to square one.


However what we can very frequently encounter are cycles that contain sufficient energy within the spinning vortex of energy to enable several hits in a sequence.


From experimental observation over many years I have observed that it pays to strike and take the profit from three consecutive wins and then pause. Close the mini-session.


You may be able to add another mini session cycle- it depends on your reading of the game. It may be another group of patterns unfolding. This can be wheel sets to street sets, to finales sets, to alternating EC bets.


Accentuate the postives. Take the profit and be happy.

[XXVV]

#5  take a gift when it is offered to you

Many times in the course of our work at the table we are provided with an offering. We arrived with a goal. However we were provided with that and some, and all within 3 live spins played. What would you do?


This is one reason I like the 'rapid roulette' scenario in the casino as long as the dealer is live and it is a single zero wheel, and the units range from minimum $1 upwards. Then you can leverage and experiment at little risk exposure.


You don't have to play every spin, as long as there are others in the cluster playing. You can stop and start at will. And best of all, one trick I have learned to apply. After a win involving either your goal won, or three wins in a row, or both; I cash up.


I may stay in the seat but wait and watch.


It has been a successful micro-session.


My record for staying on in mini sessions has been 8 sessions where I leveraged 20 units to 800 units in a series of wins that ranged from +40 to +150 units.


When you are offered a gift and you refuse it; say you keep playing, and the profit is rapidly evaporated. Then how would you feel?  You have just told your subconscious mind 'I don't want to win'. It is no surprise you will feel very bad, not at peace, in fact in inner conflict, and you will end up losing much more, because to cap it all, you will feel like punishing yourself.


Stop such patterns of behaviour and remind yourself what I told you. Always take profit after 3 wins.


Best XXVV