Average Wheel Distance

[ignatus]

These are 100 distances, (shortest distance) half taken live from DublinBet, other half from list of livespins.

Why am I not suprised by these results? I knew before that very small or large distances are not common. So, perhaps it's possible to make a more accurate wheel strategy...

5,3,6,11,2,15,10,11,16,1 = Average dist 8

7,6,1,16,10,11,11,3,6,10 = Average dist 7

9,15,8,5,8,15,3,4,11,10 = Average dist 9

13,10,9,4,5,4,9,3,7,9 = Average dist 7

4,17,2,2,4,13,15,2,2,14 = Average dist 7,5

6,7,4,17,3,16,4,15,10,12 = Average dist 9

12,9,6,14,11,10,12,9,5,17 = Average dist 10,5

13,7,10,17,13,0,13,8,1,12 = Average dist 9

16,4,3,8,9,9,1,2,1,9 = Average dist 6

18,16,7,1,15,10,3,16,9,17 = Average dist 11


Total Average distance = 8,4


I was inspired by Kattila and rouletteKEY.  Now, what distances should be included? If bet is no more than 9 units etc? 

Perhaps distances 8 9 10 11 -> That's a 8 number bet (four on each side) ? Or spread like 6 8 10 12 ?....Uneven spread 5,7,9,11..


TO WIN all examples above betting distances must be 2,4,5,7,8,9,10 I really like to include 11 also. There is no way around it??
This will be a 14-15 number bet.

8 can be replaced by 11. So my ultimate distance bet would be 2,4,5,7,9,10,11 That's a 14 numbers bet.

5 can be removed also. So, distances will be 2,4,7,9,10,11 (12 numbers bet)...


That's the best I can figure right now. IF you got better ideas, let me know.

[Skakus]

Won’t work.

Whatever group of distances you choose to bet on there will always be enough groups of remaining distances to sustain the house edge.

[ignatus]

Won’t work.

Whatever group of distances you choose to bet on there will always be enough groups of remaining distances to sustain the house edge.

House Edge? I Got more than house edge, when I KNOW the average distance hit. In my example average distance 8, so betting around this distance will give an advantage.

Of course random deviations can happen. True, but in the long run average distance hit should work. (At least in theory!) 

[TwoCatSam]

Geez, I wonder why I didn't think of something like this? 

[ignatus]

Geez, I wonder why I didn't think of something like this? 

You already got your supertracker Sam!  What you complaining about?

How is it going btw? You winning anything? 

[ignatus]

OK now let's take this betting distances as an example  2,4,7,9,10,11 (12 numbers bet)


5,3,6,11,2,15,10,11,16,1 = LLLWWLWWLL = 4w

7,6,1,16,10,11,11,3,6,10 = LLLLWWWLLW= 4w

9,15,8,5,8,15,3,4,11,10 = WLLLLLLWWW= 4w

13,10,9,4,5,4,9,3,7,9 = LWWWLWWLWW= 7w

4,17,2,2,4,13,15,2,2,14 = WLWWWLLWWL= 6w

6,7,4,17,3,16,4,15,10,12 = LWWLLLWLWL= 4w

12,9,6,14,11,10,12,9,5,17 = LWLLWWLWLL= 4w

13,7,10,17,13,0,13,8,1,12 = LWWLLLLLLL= 2w

16,4,3,8,9,9,1,2,1,9 = LWLLWWLWLW= 5w

18,16,7,1,15,10,3,16,9,17 = LLWLLWLLWL=3w


Total = 43/100 = 43% winrate

"Normal" winrate for 12 numbers should be 33%... well? Talk about House Edge?!

[maestro]

hope you got another 1000 SEK to lose

[ignatus]

hope you got another 1000 SEK to lose

Very funny. What's your problem? I only lost 360. And i WON 1900 before I lost, but that doesn't matter.

[iggiv]

that's interesting observation about average distances. But how do u calculate them? Between consecutive  spins or starting from some spin pocket point?

[rouletteKEY]

You need alot more spins before you get too excited...alot more spins...but if you are going to go on a method using wheel movements I am glad you are going pocket by pocket...that way if you see the need to adapt the size of the sector you can do it easily with no additional tracking work.

Keep testing... 100 spins is not anywhere near a basis for analyzing numbers...let alone projecting a method out of it

I am not a wheel bias guy...but if you are...you will want to keep the numbers separated and classified by wheel

Thousands and thousands of spins...also...remember averages aren't everything

I don't see any numbers over 18...does your proposed method not need data regarding whether it's clockwise or counterclockwise from the last pocket hit?  Might be useful data while you are tracking.   Whether you think the data has bearing on whatever you are going to do or not...the more data you have, the more accurate and the more thorough...the easier it will be to make a basis for your next method...plus...they all tend to morph...so if you have data that's useless now...might be nice when someone suggests a tweak to already have the data at your fingertips and not have to backtrack and recalculate.

Log every bit of data you can...and you only have to do it once...then you can apply whatever method you formulate in the future much much much easier.

A few things that you may want to consider when taking this path
    Did the ball move forward on the wheel or backwards from the last pocket?
        if it went backwards 8 pockets ( it needs to be logged as minus 8 ) and the next one went forward 8 pockets...your average is now 0...which wasn't anywhere close on either spin
    Make sure your data is good...remember garbage in...garbage out
    Is there any way to track wheel sectors and hot numbers simultaneously?  How about  neighbors to the hot numbers?
    When coming up with an overall method and gameplan....these may all be important things to consider.
    When the ball is moving x amount of pockets is anything else "randomly" happening that you can identify.
    It would take me more time just to figure out how exactly I wanted to develop a comprehensive tracker than you have in your preliminary testing.
    Are there times that happen on a regular basis when pocket movements are x?  Are the pocket movements totally random with no discernable pattern whatsoever...or do they tend to move in waves like repeating numbers?  Would probably be interesting to look at and have some thoughts about.

     Maybe not a single thing comes out of a ridiculously involved testing process...or maybe a light goes on that gives you something 10% new that allows you to make a better planned attack, even if it only happens every x amount of spins.  Sometimes you just have to run all the numbers to rule certain things as unviable or open your eyes to other potential possibilities that you had never before even considered.

Just throwing some things out there for your consideration.

PS   Less numbers are a good thing
PSS Big progressions...usually a really bad thing...just sayin'

[TwoCatSam]

You already got your supertracker Sam!  What you complaining about?

How is it going by the way? You winning anything? 

ignatus

Was I complaining?   Funny, I thought I was one of the guys who has been encouraging you.  Silly me!

Yep, I have my SuperTracker, (and thanks for the name!) and I have it because I paid for it.  The TwoCat SuperTracker!!  I love it!!

What is really, really going well is Stef and Nick's Excel Bot.  I am fighting off the sin of hubris.

Yes, it is going very well.  I am hung up on how to make a video.      My new software is smarter than I.  (Notice I didn't say "me"?)

You keep plugging away!

Good on ya, mate!

Sam

[ignatus]

that's interesting observation about average distances. But how do u calculate them? Between consecutive  spins or starting from some spin pocket point?

10 spins are consecutive in my example. 50 spins I took live from DublinBet, the other 50 from a list of livespins. I don't really understand your question :S Anyway, that's how I did it. (see pic)

[ignatus]

You need a lot more spins before you get too excited...a lot more spins...but if you are going to go on a method using wheel movements I am glad you are going pocket by pocket...that way if you see the need to adapt the size of the sector you can do it easily with no additional tracking work.

Keep testing... 100 spins is not anywhere near a basis for analyzing numbers...let alone projecting a method out of it

I am not a wheel bias guy...but if you are...you will want to keep the numbers separated and classified by wheel

Thousands and thousands of spins...also...remember averages aren't everything

I don't see any numbers over 18...does your proposed method not need data regarding whether it's clockwise or counterclockwise from the last pocket hit?  Might be useful data while you are tracking.   Whether you think the data has bearing on whatever you are going to do or not...the more data you have, the more accurate and the more thorough...the easier it will be to make a basis for your next method...plus...they all tend to morph...so if you have data that's useless now...might be nice when someone suggests a tweak to already have the data at your fingertips and not have to backtrack and recalculate.

Log every bit of data you can...and you only have to do it once...then you can apply whatever method you formulate in the future much much much easier.

A few things that you may want to consider when taking this path
    Did the ball move forward on the wheel or backwards from the last pocket?
        if it went backwards 8 pockets ( it needs to be logged as minus 8 ) and the next one went forward 8 pockets...your average is now 0...which wasn't anywhere close on either spin
    Make sure your data is good...remember garbage in...garbage out
    Is there any way to track wheel sectors and hot numbers simultaneously?  How about  neighbors to the hot numbers?
    When coming up with an overall method and gameplan....these may all be important things to consider.
    When the ball is moving x amount of pockets is anything else "randomly" happening that you can identify.
    It would take me more time just to figure out how exactly I wanted to develop a comprehensive tracker than you have in your preliminary testing.
    Are there times that happen on a regular basis when pocket movements are x?  Are the pocket movements totally random with no discernable pattern whatsoever...or do they tend to move in waves like repeating numbers?  Would probably be interesting to look at and have some thoughts about.

     Maybe not a single thing comes out of a ridiculously involved testing process...or maybe a light goes on that gives you something 10% new that allows you to make a better planned attack, even if it only happens every x amount of spins.  Sometimes you just have to run all the numbers to rule certain things as unviable or open your eyes to other potential possibilities that you had never before even considered.

Just throwing some things out there for your consideration.

PS   Less numbers are a good thing
PSS Big progressions...usually a really bad thing...just sayin'

That's good ideas. Thanks.

Well, the problem remains how to decrease the numbers? 8 number is the absolute minumum in my opinion, (4 on each side).... I don't know really how to make a more accurate prediction, and the relation of each spin etc.... I can do 100 more spins today, if the results are the same, we'll see. Furthermore, i don't know how to use clockwise/anticlockwise calculation? (haven't studied that)...

How you figure to include hotnumbers AND average distance without increasing the numbers bet? I think 12 number is OK, (six on each side) now some complain and say no more than 9 number should be bet?

I was thinking if average distance is 8, then generate 4 random distances between 4-12? That's one idea. Still the question how to make a more accurate prediction AND use less numbers?

You've got the data, you'll get more soon....

[ignatus]

ignatus

Was I complaining?   Funny, I thought I was one of the guys who has been encouraging you.  Silly me!

Yep, I have my SuperTracker, (and thanks for the name!) and I have it because I paid for it.  The TwoCat SuperTracker!!  I love it!!

What is really, really going well is Stef and Nick's Excel Bot.  I am fighting off the sin of hubris.

Yes, it is going very well.  I am hung up on how to make a video.      My new software is smarter than I.  (Notice I didn't say "me"?)

You keep plugging away!

Good on ya, mate!

Sam

That's great Sam. You've got the most advanced system for tracking wheel distances so far. I have no idea about clockwise and anticlockwise, you find any pattern etc? That's a very good thing. How many numbers is you average bet?

[TwoCatSam]

ignatus

I'm going to make a new movie today, if I can.  Perhaps you should take a break and watch it.  I bet 19 numbers.  Some say that's too many.  To each his own.

Sam