Parlays

[GLC]

I understand now.  I was afraid the advantage gained would fall short of overcoming the house edge.

Also, in a normal session length, the normal balance rarely if ever happens.  So it may not be of much help practically.

Having said that, it is an idea worth some more thought.

Thanks for putting it out there.

GLC

[GLC]

Also, in a normal session length, the normal balance rarely if ever happens.  So it may not be of much help practically.

By this statement I mean that if we play for a couple of hours and get only 100 spins plus or minus a few, the singles vs 2 or more distribution could be so heavily weighted one way or the other that the small advantage to be gained would be negligible.

Of course the longer we play, the better our odds.

For those of the opinion that there's no difference in odds between a lot of short sessions put end to end and a very long session played all at once the above might not be accurate at all.

GLC

[psimoes]

Random has the diabolic effect on our reasoning that makes us contradict ourselves from time to time. I tried this method recently when I defended the same principle that if a series of 8 is rarer than a series of 6, then we should always bet DTL to increase our chances. It won't work unless we look at it from a different perspective (and even so, it's not guaranteed to win).

The anecdote of the old gambler betting on the dominant dozen for weeks is definitely worth a second thought.

[psimoes]

What you're saying is that he bets opposite the last because in 1,000 spins he has the following break down

500 singles
250 doubles
125 triples
62.5 quads
31.25 pentets ?
15.625 sextets ?
7.81 7 in a row
3.9  8 in a row
1.95  9 in a row
0.976  10 in a row


GLC

Sorry, this can't be right. What we have here aren't 1000 spins but 1000 events. A series of 2, for instance, means exactly what it says, that is two spins; so after a series of 500 single spins (500*1), and a series of 250 doubles (250*2), the 1000 spins end right there. This complicates things even further.

[psimoes]

Plus assuming the relationship between events is correct, that is for every number of singles there will be 1/2 number of doubles and 1/4 number of triples ad infinitum, the number of changes from an event >1 to <1 and back will be roughly the same as the changes from <1 to >1 and back. It means the Losses will be a tiny fraction less than the Wins, how much we don't know unless we also know the longest event in a finite number of spins. If this sounds confusing, it's because it is.

For instance:

Say over 57 spins we'll have 16 singles + 8 doubles + 4 triples + 2 quads + 1 penta. Every single is a Win, every time a series begins is a Loss, so there'll be 16 Wins vs. 8+4+2+1=15 Losses. In a real situation, is it worth it?

(Betting for Same As Last isn't any better since we'll have to bet on every spin):

Say we'll have 16 singles, 8 doubles, 4 triples, 2 quads, 1 penta = 16+16+12+8+5=57 spins. We'll flat bet for the continuity of events, so each single as well as every first spin of the other series mean a change of events, so a Loss. We'll have:

(16-16)+[(2-1)*8]+[(3-1)*4]+[(4-1)*2]+(5-1)=8+8+6+4=26 Wins vs. 57-26= 31 Losses...

[psimoes]

[...]the number of changes from an event >1 to <1 and back will be roughly the same as the changes from <1 to >1 and back. [...]

Oops, it should read "the number of changes from an event >1 to 1 and back will be roughly the same as the changes from 1 to >1 and back" instead. Sorry.

[psimoes]

Have you noticed the same results apply to doubles? I guess it's because the number of spins match the number of singles:

We wait for a change of events and bet once for the continuity of the new event. So after BBBBBR we bet on R once, then wait for the next change. Singles will kill it, but the other series are a Win.

So in 57 spins where (16*1)+(8*2)+(4*3)+(2*4)+(1*5) we have 16 Losses against 8+4+2+1=15 Wins...

[psimoes]

This is going way off-topic now, perhaps a split is in order?

Here's the LW registry with actuals from today. Did it quickly so there might be some errors.

[psimoes]

File updated with LW reg. for Doubles, Singles, and Singles & Doubles.