You can only win with a progression!

[ewarwoowar]

this is a forum at it's best.
an idea put out there and others contributing and offering their opinions, agreeing or otherwise.
for me, i agree with george. a progression, if used with a decent bet selection, keeps you in the game.
using good mm adds to our armoury. i think if we approach the game professionally and as george has said, with seperate 1000 unit banks, then with all three tools, ie bet selection, progression and mm, then we have a chance.

[iggiv]

Unfortunately progression is not the answer. it can change the outcome. It can make u lose less or more. It can make u win less or more. but it can't make u win instead of losing. If u  bet wrong numbers overall --nothing will hep u win. But if your progression is too dangerous, even if You are ahead a little and bet more right numbers than wrong, u still can end up with disaster. That's how progressions are. But if u r a master of progression and u r a little ahead then You can  make your wins bigger and losses smaller with help of progression, thus win more. But a progression  itself is not an answer. Right bet selection is a key.

Nothing is more wrong that thinking that with a right progression only u can overcome a house edge. It's simply impossible.

[GLC]

We can't overcome the house edge with bet selection.

We can't overcome the house edge with bet progression.

[iggiv]

you is not equal to "we"

[rouletteKEY]

We can't overcome the house edge with bet selection.

We can't overcome the house edge with bet progression.

I will beg to differ on this one with you

I believe the house edge...even here in the USA where its pretty big...is able to be overcome and is overcome.

It cannot be overcome without solid bet selection as the table limit will undoubtedly at some point stop you from "buying your way out it" on the bet selection front.

Add reasoned progressions, both positive and negative, applied in a timely manner and it all becomes that much easier.

This isn't rocket science guys.  Solid bet selection, good money management (progressions and stop-losses), suitably large bankroll, emotional stability, patience and discipline.  It really is that simple.  If everything is locked down you can obviously still have bad runs...but the good runs far outpace them in the long run (and even most short runs).  Screw up on any one of those areas though and your possibility of failure can skyrocket pretty quick.  Human nature doesn't allow most people to succeed.

1.  Solid bet selection - the single most important aspect to winning
2.  Good money management - reasonable stop losses, slight negative progressions when warranted and aggressive positive progressions for short bursts
3.  Large bankroll - doesn't matter how good you are - if you aren't well capitalized luck becomes a huge part of the equation and it doesn't have to be
4.  Emotional stability - being well funded helps in avoiding panic on drawdowns, stay alert and concentrate on the task at hand
5.  Patience - you can score big quick but it usually doesn't happen that way...sometimes it takes awhile to get a good opportunity to really attack
6.  Discipline - if you don't have a bet...don't make one.  Don't try to recover too fast and know when to quit...emotional stability helps you all thru these as well

Think about your losing sessions and think about your winning sessions and compare your entire game to the list I just put up...I see people go bust all the time and they are usually violating at least one but usually all 6 keys here and they wonder why they lose.  They come to the table with $200, pick their birthday, when that doesn't win they start adding a bunch more numbers, when those don't win they see that black hit 6 times in a row and that can't keep going so they throw a Marty against red and because they didn't have the bank, bet poorly, had no money management whatsoever and of course now they are pissed that they impatiently threw away all their money.  It happens every day countless times just while I'm sitting there. 

Most of the people on the forums are a little better than that but many don't make good bets or chase the win that just isn't coming.  Many come underfunded and human nature dictates that most have little or no patience or the discipline to either stick with their plan or modify it when conditions call for it.  Read the posts, everybody wants to play a kajillion numbers to have a strike rate they can feel good about all the while neglecting the inherent fact that strike rate and profitability are not the same thing and success is not measured in strike rate...it's measured in gain or loss...an emotional failure.

There's nothing new here...this is the same thing I've talked about for a long time...same things that get touched on in countless threads by alot of experienced players.  Same things that all get cast aside as BS or grumblings in every single thread.

To get back to the subject of this thread "You can only win with a progression!"  No.  You can win without a progression but you can win more with a progression when you use it properly and properly is not a mindless application of throwing chips all over the felt because you just lost 6 bets in a row.

Whew...that was alot more than the two sentences I intended to write.  Sorry about the extended monologue there guys...guess my frustration at reading alot of posts sort of built up and landed here.

[iggiv]

if i only something knew,
nothing real here new,
would get out of the cage
if defeated house edge.

[iggiv]

yes we here got a quest.
won't help us any guest?
what important is: progression
or OK is bet selection?

Where should be our success?
how to easy make progress?
Very few to know the answer,
not enough to play a dancer...

[Turner]

RouletteKEY
Nice speech...but its all sound bites. I'd like to think we all know this stuff.
Whats a solid bet selection in your opinion?
I dont know what you mean by solid.
I think roulette is rocket science. Thers more to it than meets the eye.
All your points are very generic.

So I write down your 6 points on a scrap of paper and walk up to the table all disciplined and a wallet full of cash, and as emotionally stable as a Buddhist Monk.... What do i bet on?

[rouletteKEY]

I thought it was more common sense than sound bites...but I can see your point.  I'd like to think most people know them as well...if we can agree they make sense...next time you belly up to the felt pay attention to how many people actually abide by the points of common sense...knowing them and acting on them are two completely different things.

Most people just miss the obvious things, get caught up emotionally in the game and it spirals outta control...sometimes for the good, but mostly not so much.

Solid bet selection.  Something that is well tested and as predictable as anything can be in this game or cycles and waves (I can reasonably predict in any given 120 spin cycle a few numbers will not hit at all and several numbers will hit 6-8 times, maybe a really hot number or two go even higher).  Solid in that if you have a bad run... that every bet selection has... that you can recover without betting the farm and reaching table limits.  For me it's the cyclical nature of repeating numbers which also sometimes equates to hot wheel sectors...not because I'm timing a croupier or anything sophisticated in any way.  I just see how patterns develop and protect myself in the times that I miss on my analysis with stop losses.  By protecting my downside I am able generally to capitalize when I am correct with the positive progressions. 

Bet selection / more specifically...I'm looking at a repeating number (singular) or a hot wheel sector (4 number sector or less)...and that's pretty much it.  I play that number to a win or a loss (I used to play 3-5 numbers this way but I'm finding straight up suits me better...more profitable).  If it's a loss I stop at a certain point and resume my bets with the next qualifying number.  Cap my negative progression at 3-5 units and depending on where I am overall once the inevitable win occurs I decide whether to drop back some as a starting point for a positive progression or continue a positive progression from the point where my negative left off on the win.  It's not rocket science because identifying a repeating number just isn't that difficult. 34 red hit x number of spins ago...it just hit again...that's a repeating number...let's see if it repeats again in the next X number of spins...it does I win...it doesn't I lose and go on to the next qualifying number.  You have to have patience and the bankroll to play it out though.  If you have to be meandering around the casino every 30 minutes...you just can't play it...if you walk in with $300 in your pocket...you can't play it out.  It has to be worth your while.

Numbers will repeat and numbers will sleep...you know in any given 120 spins a number or two is gonna hit 7-8 times (not always I know that)...it's just a matter of which number.  Another few numbers will hit 5 or 6 times in 120 spins.  If it takes 20 spins to track the first one...you have 5-7 more hits in the next 100 spins in alot of cases...if I play a positive progression on winnings and am hitting a single number every 20-30 spins...I am winning...most people would never have the patience to play it...part of the reason they lose.  I see it every single time I play and almost everybody else on these forums do to.  It's not difficult...it's just boring and since most people are interested more in the entertainment value and the excitement instead of the profitability their performance financially suffers, although obviously everybody gets a hot streak sometimes no matter what method they choose.  But with 35:1 odds on a single play I just have the best possible opportunity to recover if down and multiply my winnings if I am up.

Just a systematic, boring approach based on sound bites that most people would never adhere to because it's just not that much fun.  It's a grind, but it's worked for me for a long time.  It is what it is as they say. 

Turner...on the last sentence...bet on repeating numbers to keep repeating...but don't bet on many

[Turner]

Thanks RK....now that's less generic. I'm with you all the way on that explaination.
You don't speak of cold numbers much. i do very well with a few repeaters....a few that have just hit and a few cold for a few spins. No set stratedgy and keeping the choices different, but with the same rules.

Do you know what my biggest problem is with casinos? How can i explain.?

if I go in a pub and its full of kids, and knobheads, i go in a different pub, until the pub is full of reasonable people just socialising and out for a quiet pint. My local is like this.

I wish I could find a casino that is full of sensible people who bet constructivly with reason. I'm sat there with the wife...following the marquee...jotting stuff down with the provided pen and paper and making reasoned decisions. The other 5 people at the table are idi.ots...stacking chips high and everywhere without rhyme or reason....leaning all over me, stinking like they havnt bathed for weeks. Most distracting. Casinos can be sh*tholes in the UK. I wish they were like 5 star hotels. The kind James Bond goes in.

if it was a pub...I would have left and found a better one...but all casinos are like that. It spoils it...mixing with those dumb fuc*ers.

[amk]

What's the scene at 8 or 9 am Turner?


What time do the casinos open?

[rouletteKEY]

Yeah that's a different environment than what I have...I have an added edge.  In order to get a single 0 wheel I am necessarily obliged to play in the high limit room...where at least most people have bathed fairly recently if for no other reason than they got comped a room with a nice marble shower and steam jets.

Sleepers...about the only time I take a flyer on a sleeper is if something hasn't hit forever (150-200 spins) and then wakes up.  I might be coerced at that point to go on it...but usually...not so much, and even then I may let it go another 10 or 15 spins before I start.  Very very seldom my kinda play...odds are better for me to jump in if that waking sleeper is in or next to a hot wheel sector at the time.

Lots of tracking and of course the snide remarks from the idiot sitting next to me about my pen and paper... who of course is going broke the whole time...

[TwoCatSam]

Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong.  When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!

[rouletteKEY]

Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong.  When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!

Yeah that *uckin guy

[iggiv]

 

Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong.  When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!