You can only win with a progression!

[Turner]

What's the scene at 8 or 9 am Turner?


What time do the casinos open?

AMK...
LoL....they open boxing day....and close christmas eve 12 midnight.. Hence the ambience of a soup kitchen

[Blood Angel]

Do you even have an edge as such  if you need a progression?

[rouletteKEY]

Do you even have an edge as such  if you need a progression?

I think the argument could be made that your edge is derived with bet selection and that edge is amplified or compounded with a well implemented progression

[Blood Angel]

I think the argument could be made that your edge is derived with bet selection and that edge is amplified or compounded with a well implemented progression

Agreed, so a progression wont give you an edge on its own.

[ewarwoowar]

Agreed, so a progression won't give you an edge on its own.

we don't have an edge, we can't have an edge.
we can have a smart bet selection and as roulettekey says, amplify that with a progression. we can further amplify things with money management.
that's my take on it anyway.

[iggiv]

that's right, but this is still a double end spear. Progression which amplifies your winnings at this moment, at the next moment may reduce it. And frequently it happens both ways. And now, when u lose because of it, u lose more than u win...because of the "old good" house edge (that's only one thing) and also because your losses now are AMPLIFIED also. And it is extremely hard to predict exactly when it will work for u or against u.

and the truth is, that because roulette is always NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME, there is always a big chance that next time when u bet after u won, u will lose it. And if u already lost, there is a big chance than u lose again.

all "holy grails" lose when u play more and more spins no matter what. That's a fact.


all this stuff i am saying does not mean that i think u always lose no matter what. On the contrary, i think You can win. but not the way most of the guys try to do it...No holy grails, no progressions...but accuracy of prediction as Steve said. but i think it can be achieved by different ways.

[Turner]

The house edge is just there....fact.

The odds you get (what the casino pay) for winning are smaller than the odds for winning. Thats a fact.
How can that fact be "overcome"?
It cant.
How could how you play or progress or how much you carry into the casino make them pay you 36:1?
You cant.
Im willing to listen to an explaination how you get 36:1 on inside numbers by the way you play.
That would be interesting.

[iggiv]

in fact because of progression players casinos get much more than just house edge. That's why most of the tables have flexible limits. If casinos were afraid of progressions they would make limits much more stiffer. U wouldn't be able to increase your bets if they were afraid of your progressions. But they are mostly not. I mean to some extent.
They know well that absolutely most of the progression players will lose and lose much more than they won.

[Ralph]

At a casino we have the luck factor i.e. the variance, which make us lose or win in the short term. The HE is a tax of 1.3 to 5.25 % and there is not ANY betselection which can overcome it in the long run. Not even statistical methods. As it does not matter when we play and where we play, our statistics will not as a whole change. HAR will not work deviation will not work, in fact only luck works.

The ball do not know anything about the game, so it is that we just bet and it is the fallen number we win, and the odds are against us.

If ecart should work, I could play in fun until I got an extreme ecart, then switch to the real and be sure to win. As it does not matter which fair wheel we use, the long term outcome will not differ.

On a non zero wheel it is the variance only to master, it is a very large difference to have the fair odds. Every casino have a profit of the HE over the long run. On a NOZ the casino pay all deposit money back to the players. All deposit money will be taxed at BV with 10% and that's that such casino make profit on.

10% of the winnings are for most players far less than 2.7% HE.  The zero wheel may only be better if the player do one bet  and then are taxed by the risk of 2.7%. As soon we play grinding system the HE grows to up to 27% of the deposed money, as we reuse the chips. Many grinding system which show a profit of  10% of the turnover after many spins  on NZ has lost all the bankroll  on zero wheel.

When we play we should try to do it rater bold, so we win if we are in the lucky phase, not only break even or take a small winning, in opposite situations we will anyhow lose, how ever er try.

Thats says flat betting can not win more than a lucky string of numbers. Progression helps, but it puts the loss a head, if we are winning today we lose later. It can to some grade be handled with MM, and stop. Anybody win much protect the profit best with playing less.

We often mix up luck and methods. It is a small chance for anyone to win long term, and that can happen without any skill involved.

[ego]

The HE is a tax of 1.3 to 5.25 % and there is not ANY bets which can overcome it in the long run.

What do you mean by don't pass the long run, i see many simulation using progression who pass 1 milion spins.
And i also my self pass 800.000 spins using a 12 step fibo, with out the HE had so much effect towards the overall game.
.
No wounder wizard of odds and others say that all system fail, as they run them for billion spins and then show us the effect of HE ...

[Ralph]

What do you mean by don't pass the long run, i see many simulation using progression who pass 1 milion spins.
And i also my self pass 800.000 spins using a 12 step fibo, with out the HE had so much effect towards the overall game.
.
No wounder wizard of odds and others say that all system fail, as they run them for billion spins and then show us the effect of HE ...

It is not impossible to win millions of spins, but it is rare. 
We can flat bet 10000000000 spins, and even do it on only one EC. It is a chance that EC will give a profit of  millions of  units.
Depending of if we pick the right to just that spins.

I did a test on a website and tested 1000000 spins using Martingale, fib and Dàlembert 10 trials each  the fib got a net and the other bust by large amount. Everthing can happen, we can win, but we do not must!

[GLC]

What I have noticed is that I need to bet much larger bets when I'm playing a flat bet because I don't expect to win more than a few units.  Playing for $1 or even $5 can be boring if you're just hovering around even all day.  So, like my frined Michael said, he has to play for  $20 units to make it worth his time.  Then a normal downturn can send your blood racing as you find yourself in the hole a few hundred bucks.

Also, some progressions can weather an extremely bad win to loss ratio.  If you're playing an 8 step marty which is affordable for most gamblers, LLLLLWLLLWLWLWLLLLLLWLWWLLLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLLLW is death to any progression or flatbet but the marty player is singing right through it.  Of course he doesn't like WLLLLLLLLL but like Ralph said, it takes luck for any of us to win.

When I was playing the Advanced Revere Point Count in Blackjack, I had at least a 2% edge against 2 deck games at the Circus Circus casino (yes it was a very long time ago) and I went through a terrible losing stretch where I lost 2,000 units over a 3 month period.  Fortunately I had just come through a winning streak and was up 1200 units so only an 800 unit loss, but I kept thinking "what the ...."  That's when I started to understand the gambler's ruin graph I had seen that said I needed about 2,0000 units to guard agains a total loss even with a 2% advantage much less a 2% disadvantage.

There are just no guarantees when you're playing against random, but with a large number of back-up units, you can weather most storms.  That's why you never play with money you can't afford to lose.

If all you have is a few hundred units, your only choice is to keep the progression minimized and hope for the best.

GLC

[Ralph]

What I have noticed is that I need to bet much larger bets when I'm playing a flat bet because I don't expect to win more than a few units.  Playing for $1 or even $5 can be boring if you're just hovering around even all day.  So, like my frined Michael said, he has to play for  $20 units to make it worth his time.  Then a normal downturn can send your blood racing as you find yourself in the hole a few hundred bucks.

Also, some progressions can weather an extremely bad win to loss ratio.  If you're playing an 8 step marty which is affordable for most gamblers, LLLLLWLLLWLWLWLLLLLLWLWWLLLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLLLW is death to any progression or flatbet but the marty player is singing right through it.  Of course he doesn't like WLLLLLLLLL but like Ralph said, it takes luck for any of us to win.

When I was playing the Advanced Revere Point Count in Blackjack, I had at least a 2% edge against 2 deck games at the Circus Circus casino (yes it was a very long time ago) and I went through a terrible losing stretch where I lost 2,000 units over a 3 month period.  Fortunately I had just come through a winning streak and was up 1200 units so only an 800 unit loss, but I kept thinking "what the ...."  That's when I started to understand the gambler's ruin graph I had seen that said I needed about 2,0000 units to guard agains a total loss even with a 2% advantage much less a 2% disadvantage.

There are just no guarantees when you're playing against random, but with a large number of back-up units, you can weather most storms.  That's why you never play with money you can't afford to lose.

If all you have is a few hundred units, your only choice is to keep the progression minimized and hope for the best.

GLC

A marty handle easy an unbalance, at 80% against 20% on an EC, if the distribution is right. Dàlembert on the other hand can take
the distribution but not the unbalance.
I have used a mixed of those by using Dàlembert in combination with positive progression.

For a smaller bankroll a positive progression holds better. It is not sure a bet which wins often but small is better.

[rouletteKEY]

okay guys...regarding the house edge. 

Knowing that numbers repeat you are saying you can't develop a method that allows you to win a single number bet on average with 34 bets?  Which would essentially be turning the house edge around to a players edge.

You have the ability to place bets when and where you want... and within table limits the casino must take your bets...to me that sounds like a players edge.  Most people just would never play it because it's ridiculously boring and tedious.  Honestly if you can't develop a method that can predict a winning number (on average...that's where progressions come in) once per 34 spins on average...then this perhaps isn't your game.  In most 36 spin cycles about a dozen numbers aren't gonna show and the other 24 +/- are going to repeat once or more.

Perhaps the problem is we are debating two different things...I am debating a scenario using progressions which are managable where I am selecting a single number and changing that number as conditions dictate and most other players are betting double dozens, even chances, streets or a plethora of numbers on the inside.  I am trying to bet on a rotating single number to hit on average every 34 spins or less to maintain my edge.  If I don't get a win in 34 spins I'm down 34 units and can double my bet to a whopping 2 units...if I win in the next 18 spins I'm still in profit while only risking 70 units.  Is it possible to not hit on a currently repeating number for 52 spins?  Sure...but I'm only 70 units down and if I bet all of 3 units on the next spin and win...I am still up winning only a single bet in 53 spins while risking only 73 units to earn a 35 unit profit...I am up 50% with a single win while only risking 73 units.  I know it very well may not win the very spin I up the bet...but regardless of when it wins...and it will win at some point as numbers do repeat...I will be in the plus and once in the plus I can play a positive progression and win more or lose my way back to break even.  Do I stop the negative progression at a certain point...sure...you can't carry it out forever and at some point I know I'm going to get 3 or 4 wins within a 36 spin cycle so I can grind my way back into it...patience and bankroll will persevere if the bet selection is good and the progression is within reason.

I am not supporting mindless crazy progressions either negative or positive...just a well thought out and boring method to trudge along until an opportunity arises that allows me to go positive on the progression with won money and really parlay it into something special...sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but most will never know for themselves because they lack the patience to slog thru it, the discipline to not start chucking chips all over the place for excitement or the bankroll to face a drawdown out of the gate.

The question remains "can you ONLY win with a progression?"...I contend the answer remains no...but a progression helps and since my style of play is so totally foreign to many I think it's tough for alot of people to get their heads around it if you are playing double dozens or the like because you are so down, so fast, and your wins paying 1 to 2 in this example give you no real opportunity to recover...tempered progressions do work when you have good bet selection and a solid bankroll.

Testing 3 kajillion spins isn't completely useless but it doesn't translate well sometimes...testing needs to work in a series of however many spins you can sit at the wheel for...(not discussing bots here...that's a separate scenario)  Testing tons of numbers is great so you can see what to expect...it's a cyclical game...you need to know if your bet selection can often go cold for X amount of spins and generally speaking how often will that happen.  You need to see thru testing that when your primary method is experiencing a RFH what else is generally happening...is there a way to profit from that?  Is there a way to recognize it early on...maybe yes...maybe no...

You've got to look at the big picture...progressions are a part of that picture and how they are applied or not applied will certainly have an impact on your success or failure in any given session or overall for the month or year.

[Ralph]

okay guys...regarding the house edge. 

Knowing that numbers repeat you are saying you can't develop a method that allows you to win a single number bet on average with 34 bets?  Which would essentially be turning the house edge around to a players edge.

You have the ability to place bets when and where you want... and within table limits the casino must take your bets...to me that sounds like a players edge.  Most people just would never play it because it's ridiculously boring and tedious.  Honestly if you can't develop a method that can predict a winning number (on average...that's where progressions come in) once per 34 spins on average...then this perhaps isn't your game.  In most 36 spin cycles about a dozen numbers aren't gonna show and the other 24 +/- are going to repeat once or more.

Perhaps the problem is we are debating two different things...I am debating a scenario using progressions which are managable where I am selecting a single number and changing that number as conditions dictate and most other players are betting double dozens, even chances, streets or a plethora of numbers on the inside.  I am trying to bet on a rotating single number to hit on average every 34 spins or less to maintain my edge.  If I don't get a win in 34 spins I'm down 34 units and can double my bet to a whopping 2 units...if I win in the next 18 spins I'm still in profit while only risking 70 units.  Is it possible to not hit on a currently repeating number for 52 spins?  Sure...but I'm only 70 units down and if I bet all of 3 units on the next spin and win...I am still up winning only a single bet in 53 spins while risking only 73 units to earn a 35 unit profit...I am up 50% with a single win while only risking 73 units.  I know it very well may not win the very spin I up the bet...but regardless of when it wins...and it will win at some point as numbers do repeat...I will be in the plus and once in the plus I can play a positive progression and win more or lose my way back to break even.  Do I stop the negative progression at a certain point...sure...you can't carry it out forever and at some point I know I'm going to get 3 or 4 wins within a 36 spin cycle so I can grind my way back into it...patience and bankroll will persevere if the bet selection is good and the progression is within reason.

I am not supporting mindless crazy progressions either negative or positive...just a well thought out and boring method to trudge along until an opportunity arises that allows me to go positive on the progression with won money and really parlay it into something special...sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but most will never know for themselves because they lack the patience to slog thru it, the discipline to not start chucking chips all over the place for excitement or the bankroll to face a drawdown out of the gate.

The question remains "can you ONLY win with a progression?"...I contend the answer remains no...but a progression helps and since my style of play is so totally foreign to many I think it's tough for a lot of people to get their heads around it if you are playing double dozens or the like because you are so down, so fast, and your wins paying 1 to 2 in this example give you no real opportunity to recover...tempered progressions do work when you have good bet selection and a solid bankroll.

Testing 3 kajillion spins isn't completely useless but it doesn't translate well sometimes...testing needs to work in a series of however many spins you can sit at the wheel for...(not discussing bots here...that's a separate scenario)  Testing tons of numbers is great so you can see what to expect...it's a cyclical game...you need to know if your bet selection can often go cold for X amount of spins and generally speaking how often will that happen.  You need to see thru testing that when your primary method is experiencing a RFH what else is generally happening...is there a way to profit from that?  Is there a way to recognize it early on...maybe yes...maybe no...

You've got to look at the big picture...progressions are a part of that picture and how they are applied or not applied will certainly have an impact on your success or failure in any given session or overall for the month or year.

Single number is many times better than EC, but in  Europe you may be forced to tip on a single win and the EC has half the HE.



I have had  1008 spins once without a hit on a single number. It was anyhow possible to end the session with plus.(It was on line so 2000 spins was done in reasonable time).