Binary Options using margingale, following trend?

[ignatus]

I know this topic should be somewhere else. I tried some binary options (demoaccount) link:://:.binaryoptionsdemo.com/ (only free demo account for binary options..) another one link:s://marketsworld.com/trade perhaps..

Anyway it seemed hard whatever strategy i tried. But then Im thinking do try something else: I bet for 3 binary options following trend, let's say 1 win and 2 lose. So, next I bet the 2 losing options (using martingale, following trend) -opposite as last. I continue doing this until all  is won....then start over and place 3 new options following trend.. and martingale those options lost (following trend, in opposite direction).. should work?

Any ideas about this? Btw if placing 100$ you win 170$ ..it's a 70% winratio (if lost, you loose all).

[ignatus]

I know this topic should be somewhere else. I tried some binary options (demoaccount) link:://:.binaryoptionsdemo.com/ (only free demo account for binary options..) another one link:s://marketsworld.com/trade perhaps..

Anyway it seemed hard whatever strategy i tried. But then I'm thinking do try something else: I bet for 3 binary options following trend, let's say 1 win and 2 lose. So, next I bet the 2 losing options (using martingale, following trend) -opposite as last. I continue doing this until all  is won....then start over and place 3 new options following trend.. and martingale those options lost (following trend, in opposite direction as last).. This should work??

Any ideas about this? by the way if placing 100$ you win 170$ ..it's a 70% winratio (if lost, you lose all).

[ignatus]

Got answer from a Binary Options forum

"Welcome to BOTS! It is great that you started demo trading. Only when you gain some knowledge you could move to real trading. I couldn’t recommend you any martingale strategies as they are risky and also they tend to hide the real profitability of the system. In order to be profitable you need to have a success ratio of let say at least 60% without the help of danger martingale tactics. On you last question â€" you are right win ration of 70% mean exactly that! If you have other questions feel free to ask us!"


It's dangerous, yes? but it works??

[ignatus]

Second reply:

"Trend following is the best strategy you could use. The problem is defining the trend itself and also proper implementation of the strategy. There are tremendous amount of trend following strategies and only some of them produced good results. Also using martingale is not a good idea, especially combined with trend following."

[ignatus]

Here was an answer I was looking for... (in another thread) So my idea works afterall:

"i trade 60 seconds only. for me it is way better than trading especially if you have a solid strategy. i use pivot point and trade bounces, if the trade lose i place the same direction with double the initial investment starting with 5$, but trust me i'm able to make a consistent gain of over 100$ per day"

[TwoCatSam]

"So my idea works afterall:"

Ignatus

Hope you take this right, but i* you don't, that's OK, too.

Every idea works until it doesn't!

You have announced with a voice o* certainty *or some time now that many o* your ideas work.  Each time you make these announcements and then do not back them up with some reality, you lose credibility.

It is like the little boy crying wol*. 

The guy writing *ound the Martingale and thinks he'll get rich.  Be*ore long he will be saying--------Well, it worked but then it stopped working.

Every idea works until it doesn't.

Sam

[ignatus]

I just had an idea how to trade with binary options, since all strategies i've tried so far has failed? And i think I got the answer I needed. It works. I will try it atleast...

You can't expect to win 60-70% of all trades, Especially when you're a beginner. Using martingale in this case you recover. (following trend)

[ignatus]

Another post I find interesting:

"Basically Hedging means being able to lock-in the profits earned from the assets being traded. It’s almost like taking two sides of the same trade. Let’s assume you are a trader with 15 minutes left until expiry time on the EUR/USD. With your current trade running in the money, the strike price of your $100-deposit on this asset at 85% return is already valued at $185. At this point in time, you may employ hedging strategies in order to lock the current profits. At this point put on the trade. If you see five minutes before expiry that the movement is going against your trade then place CALL. That way you have hedged your trade and will get most of your money back."

But hedging now is making a greater trade than the previous one (to get in profit) This would work just perfect. But question is , what progression is to be used fibbonaci or martingale?

Trading this way: you place a PUT option,.. now let's say after 2-3 minues (with a 5 minute trade) this is not going to win (it moves in the opposite direction) so you place a CALL-option with martingale or fibbonaci-progression...

[Turner]

I read your post Sam. Again...a mature, constructive observation. Its always worth reading what you type. Its like tapping into experience.
Sorry for kissing your ar*e.... lol !
Respect.

[ignatus]

I read your post Sam. Again...a mature, constructive observation. Its always worth reading what you type. Its like tapping into experience.
Sorry for kissing your ar*e.... LoL !
Respect.

You are such an ass Turner. See who gets the last laugh. I've given up roulette for good... I'm learning to trade binary options, and I will make more money than you can ever make on roulette. So, whatever man......

[Chris555p]

Ignatus

Been there tried that; I'm sorry to tell u that it is far easier to make $ with roulette using the correct method, strategy than playing with
options and other financial instruments in the market unless you are a real pro in this field; GL anyway.

Cheers

Chris

[Still]

I wish you success in this endeavor.  I myself am headed in that direction.

To win in either roulette or binary options (BO) you would not start out as a "pro".  You would start out as an *honest scientist*.   An honest scientist would be more careful about saying things like "It works. At least i will try it.".  No, first you try it and then let the data offer some suggestions about probabilities going forward.  Also, you've used the term win-rate out of context.  It should not be confused with *payout*.  You need a certain win-rate to overcome a payout system that favors the house. 

You would not want to run a martingale without a lot of data suggesting that you have the ability to overcome the odds flat-betting.  In BO, you need about a 60% win-rate, and you wouldn't know what your rate is until you've tested something honestly, and gathered a significant set of data points.   

If you can overcome the odds, my research suggests that you are better off with some sort of *parlay*, sort of the opposite of a martingale.  I scientist would test what i just said with a spreadsheet, graphing the results over many thousands of trials.  Here's how you would set up the test...

Write a program that can give you whatever win-rate you want to test, meaning, over a million trials it would win, for example, about 60% of the time.   Then, have the program run several variations of a martingale against that win-rate and plot the results.  Likewise with the parlay (progressive) system. Vary the win-rate and see what a difference it makes.   See for yourself what kind of life you could expect to experience under each system, at each rate.

As a rule of thumb, you will need a bigger bankroll for the marti systems, and they will test your personal ulcer index because your win-rate can never be too certain without an impossibly high number of data points.

My research suggests that ones effort, in BO, is best spent figuring out how to up ones personal win-rate.  Even 2 or 3 % more makes a big difference in the long run.  A spreadsheet (plus some basic programming skills) could easily reveal what is the best rate to compound (parlay) winnings, given a probable win-rate.

Off hand, i am not optimistic that your hedging proposals will pass a scientific test.

The interesting thing about BO is that it appears quite possible to get, and maintain, a consistently higher win-rate (much higher than just flipping a coin)...a feat hotly debated in the roulette world.   

Worth considering is whether broker shenanigans are better or worse than casino shenanigans.  My feeling (i could be wrong) is that the average BO broker will let you win more than an online (not brick and mortar) casino, before shutting you down with shenanigans.  But by that time, you've probably got enough to move into forex/commodities with more traditional (non BO) systems.  There are shenanigans there as well, but there again, a higher ceiling of opportunity for the honest scientist. 

With a demo account, and/or with a spreadsheet, one must figure out how to most efficiently test various proposals.  I would test first those systems that generous contributors have backed up with a consistently significant track record.   

Just some thoughts.

One last thought, linking your money management (marti, parlay or percentage) has no relation to trend trading.  It is linked to your win-rate.  If trend trading gives you the necessary 60+% then good.  But if some style of contra trading produces the needed win-rate then so be it.  Must be scientific about this. 

Still

[ignatus]

Yes, I'm trying different strategies with binary options, the most successfull so far is following trend with 5 minutes trades. But need more testing before I can say it works for sure...before the market closed yesterday I made 200$ in half an hour... (trading with minimum bets)

"Zoom in on the minimum timeframe (30min)... then 2 conditions must be true.

1) It's a positive or negative trend
2) The current trend is same as the general trend within this 30min timeframe (positive or negative)

(How the chart looks in a larger timeframe is irrelevant, only the last 30 min matters)

OK, so what i do; Zoom in to 30 min timeframe for every option and see if these two conditions are true, if so, then buy that option; Following trend

No trade on neutral trends, or trends that shift direction.

I buy all the 5min options fullfulling these conditions. (minimum price) "


But it takes a lot of practice..... a free demoaccount link:://:.binaryoptionsdemo.com/


A similar strategy (looking for wave-patterns):

"Short term (5-15 min) binary options with CCI+stochastics+MA / RSI+MA
So I've been trading pretty successfully with my current strategy (~65%), but last night I discovered it can be scaled to a 5-15 minute timeframe and work even better. At that level the bigger market trends are less important so I can trade off of a one minute chart exclusively. When the CCI+stochastics is either in overbaught or oversold territory and I see the CCI cross the MA strongly, I can pretty much assume the stochastics will follow within a minute. If this happens, then I look at my RSI+MA to verify the reversal. As long as the recent historical movement has shown a strong wave pattern, I take the option. This has given me about 75-80% success after 20 trades so far, but I need a few more days to confirm it is actually a quality strategy and I'm not just falling prey to an uber winning streak. "

Here's what to look for:

[ignatus]

It's better to go for many small trades once you found something that works to eliminate risk, most of the time you win 60-70%..... sometimes more, sometimes less...

I've wasted 4-5 accounts already.. :S

Need more practice, yes... Now I have to wait until the 8th when the markets opens again (that sucks!) Just when I found something that could work...

[rouletteKEY]

Just Speechless